The Differential Persistence of Accruals and Cash Flows for Future Operating Income versus Future Profitability

Prior research provides evidence that a higher proportion of accrued relative to cash earnings is associated with lower earnings performance in the subsequent fiscal year. The result has been widely interpreted as indicative of higher levels of operating accruals relative to cash flows foreshadowing a subsequent earnings reversal, and thus signaling earnings management. We note, however, that earnings performance in prior studies is typically defined as one-year-ahead operating income divided by one-year-ahead invested capital, or a measure of profitability. We find that accruals are more highly associated than cash flows with invested capital in the denominator of the profitability measure. In contrast, accruals and cash flows have no differential relation to one-year-ahead operating income. The evidence is not consistent with accruals having a reversal effect on earnings. This suggests that the lower persistence of accruals versus cash flows may not be due to earnings management but may rather be due to the effect of growth on future profitability.     

Accruals quality and the incentive contracting role of earnings

This paper investigates the association between accruals quality and the usefulness of accounting earnings in incentive contracting. Accruals quality, which measures the precision with which accruals predict future cash flows, has two potential opposing effects on the noise in earnings as a measure of managerial performance. Specifically, higher quality accruals should decrease the deviations of earnings from future cash flows and increase the sensitivity of earnings to cash flows that are not attributable to managerial actions. My evidence indicates that better accruals quality is associated with a higher weight on earnings in compensation contracts, which suggests that accruals quality overall reduces the noise in earnings. I also find that the positive association between accruals quality and the weight on earnings is mainly driven by innate accruals quality rather than discretionary accruals quality. Therefore, accrual errors resulting from the volatility of the operating environment are a primary source of noise in earnings considered by compensation committees.     

The nature of information in accruals and cash flows in an emerging capital market: The case of China

Our study investigates the relative and incremental information content of earnings, operating cash flows, and accruals in the emerging capital market of China. The issue is tested by regressing stock returns on the levels of earnings and their components. Based on a sample of 1516 firm-years for listed Chinese firms during 1995–1998, our results demonstrate that earnings have relative information content over operating cash flows. The autocorrelations and cross-sectional correlations also imply that earnings have greater persistence and predictability than operating cash flows. We also find that discretionary accruals provide incremental information beyond that contained in nondiscretionary accruals, consistent with the argument that discretionary accruals improve the relevance of earnings in reflecting the fundamental values of the listed Chinese firms. Unlike prior findings in the studies on developed markets, we find no strong evidence that the value attached to discretionary accruals is lower than the value attached to nondiscretionary accruals. This is consistent with the argument that managerial policy choices available for the listed Chinese firms were rather limited during our sample period under relatively uniform People's Republic of China Accounting Standards (PRC-GAAP), thus, producing fewer opportunities for earnings management. An alternative interpretation could be that Chinese investors are functionally fixated on earnings.     

The value relevance of cash flows, current accruals, and non-current accruals in the UK

Cash flow statements have a longstanding history as mandated financial statement disclosures, having replaced funds flow statements. The usefulness of such disclosures with respect to one of the main purposes of financial statements—providing information relevant to the assessment of future cash flows and their uncertainty, and the market value of firms—is still subject to debate. This study investigates whether various partitions of earnings involving combinations of a cash flow measure of performance and measures of current accruals and non-current accruals improve the ability to explain market values in the UK relative to using earnings alone. Using a valuation model-based methodology, and employing a UK sample of non-financial firms for the years 1993 to 2007, our results suggest strong support for the assertion that cash flows can have incremental value relevance relative to either earnings or funds flows. By implication, cash flows can have separate value relevance from total and, in particular, current accruals. There is slightly less consistent evidence that current and non-current accruals can have separate value relevance but, nonetheless, the results are still strongly in favour in this respect. Generally, the main source of increase in explanatory power for market values is the separate inclusion of our cash flow measure in the estimated regressions. As a consequence, we conclude that the statement of cash flows in the UK provides information useful to UK investors in valuing firms. Further, requiring a cash flow statement, as opposed to a funds flow statement, improves the information content of financial statements in the UK.     

Earnings persistence, accruals and managerial share ownership

We investigate the relationship between earnings persistence and a broad measure of total accruals (TACC). We propose and find that in Australia, TACC is less persistent than cash flows. We further propose that the persistence of accrual components is positively associated with the reliability of those components. However, we find that the least reliable accrual component has the greatest persistence and suggest possible reasons for this. We then investigate the relationship between earnings persistence and managerial share ownership, but find no evidence of a consistent, strong relationship. Rather, for the non-current operating accruals we find evidence consistent with incentive alignment for large firms with high operating cash flows, whereas for small firms we find evidence consistent with efficient contracting.     

Changes in accrual properties and operating environment: Implications for cash flow predictability

This paper reconciles conflicting evidence in prior literature on the relative ability of earnings and cash flows in predicting future cash flows. Further, we investigate the implications of temporal shifts in accrual properties and operating environment for cash flow predictability. Three key insights emerge. First, cash flows consistently outperform earnings in predicting future cash flows. Second, accruals and its components, including those capturing non-articulating events, have incremental (albeit small) predictive ability over cash flows. Third, earnings’ ability to predict future cash flows has increased over the period 1989–2015, due to changes in operating environment rather than accrual properties.     

Further evidence of the relationship between accruals and future cash flows

Focusing only on operating accruals in accrual‐based studies results in a loss of information and noisy measures of both accrual and cash flow components of earnings. Thus, we examine the relative importance of working capital accruals, non‐current operating accruals, and financing accruals with regard to future cash flows from operations (CFO). Using Australian data, we provide evidence that both working capital and non‐current operating accruals are important for explaining future CFO but that the contribution of financing accruals is not significant. Moreover, the asset component of accruals plays a more important role in explaining future CFO than the liability component.     

The usefulness of operating cash flow and accrual components in improving the predictive ability of earnings: a re‐examination and extension

We examine whether the components of accruals and operating cash flows improve the predictive ability of earnings for forecasting future cash flows. Unlike most previous studies, we avoid data estimation errors and sample self‐selection bias because we exploit data from Australia where reporting of actual cash flow components had been mandatory since 1992. We show that accrual components and operating cash flow components together are more useful than (i) earnings, (ii) operating cash flows and total accruals and (iii) the combination of operating cash flows with accrual components in forecasting future cash flows. These results are robust to several contextual factors, including the length of the operating cash cycle, industry membership, firm profitability and firm size.     

Earnings Management and the Post‐earnings Announcement Drift

We posit that the post‐earnings announcement drift (PEAD) is related to earnings management. Accordingly, we find that firms with large negative (positive) changes in operating cash flows manage accruals upward (downward). Most importantly, we find that PEAD is concentrated largely among those firms that are most likely to have smoothed their reported earnings and is generally associated with discretionary accruals as opposed to nondiscretionary accruals. There is no evidence of a positive (negative) PEAD for those firms with large positive (negative) earnings changes that are least likely to have managed earnings downward (upward).     

The Association Between Operating Cash Flows and Dividend Changes: An Empirical Investigation

The Association between earnings and dividend changes has been established since Lintner's (1956) pioneering work. Subsequent research attempted to establish an association between operating cash flows and dividend changes, given earnings, without success (Simons, 1994). Recently, there has been increased attention in cash flow reporting. Regulatory bodies worldwide have stressed the significance of cash flow information in capital markets. Research on the association between cash flows and dividends has been limited, yielding inconclusive results. The purpose of this study is to re-evaluate and extend prior studies by examining the incremental ability of cash flows to explain dividend changes, given earnings. We argue that a positive relationship between cash flows and dividend changes should exist due to liquidity and accruals management considerations. The empirical evidence of this study supports that the dividend changes-cash flow relationship is significantly positive (a) when operating cash flows are low compared to earnings, and (b) when firm growth is moderate.     

To beat or not to beat? The importance of analysts’ cash flow forecasts

We investigate the implications of firms’ benchmark-beating patterns with respect to analysts’ quarterly cash flow forecasts for firms’ current capital market valuation and their future performance. We hypothesize that nonnegative earnings surprises are more likely to be supported by real operating performance and signal higher earnings quality if they are achieved via higher than expected cash flows or lower than expected accruals. We show that firms beating analyst earnings forecasts have larger positive capital market reactions and larger earnings response coefficients if they beat analyst cash flow forecasts or report lower than expected accruals. We also demonstrate that these firms’ superior future performance may provide an economic justification for their more favorable market response. Our findings suggest that firms’ ability to beat analyst cash flow forecasts is informative regarding the quality of their earnings surprises.     

What Determines the Variability of Accounting Accruals?

The variability of accounting accruals provides a measure of the normal level of managers accounting discretion and has important implications for event studies of earnings management. We examine how this measure is related to the economic factors including both firm characteristics and attributes of the disclosure environment. We show that the variability of accruals is related to firm size, leverage, variability of cash flows, operating cycle, growth, and other factors. Significant industry differences and temporal patterns are also found.     

Auditor quality effects on the relationship between accruals,cash flows and equity returns: a variance decomposition analysis

In this paper, we examine the relative importance of the cash flow and accruals components of earnings in explaining the variation in UK company equity returns, together with the extent to which these relationships vary by auditor quality. We use a multivariate time-series approach that can be reconciled to a log-linear theoretical valuation model and, unlike the standard linear regression of returns on earnings components, accommodates time-varying discount rates. Based on a decomposition of the variance of equity returns, cash flows and accruals, our results indicate that both cash flow news and accruals news are important drivers of UK equity returns, although cash flows are more influential than accruals. We also find that variation in both earnings components has a more significant effect on returns for clients of large auditors. Finally, our results provide mixed evidence on the question of whether the impact of auditor quality is highest for the accruals component of earnings.     

Earnings management of seasoned equity offering firms in Korea

We investigated 249 Korean seasoned equity offering (SEO) firms during the period 1995-1997 to determine if the SEO firms manage earnings in the year before a planned issue of seasoned equity stocks. Using three test methods (accrual difference, correlation, and sign-change), we found that the Korean firms contemplating SEOs in the following year do manage earnings particularly when their relative performances have been poor. The results are robust irrespective of control samples. Analysis of operating performances around SEOs shows that SEO firms tend to increase reported earnings in the year immediately preceding and the year of SEOs, but no differences were found in operating cash flows between the SEO firms and the control firms. By using a regression analysis for discretionary accruals, we found that SEO firms are more likely to manage earnings if the operating performances are poor and if the offer sizes are relatively large. Association tests between stock returns and discretionary accruals indicate that the market reacts positively to net income but negatively to discretionary accruals. The results indicate that the market correctly analyzes the cash flow implications of the SEO firms' opportunistic use of discretionary accruals.     

Earnings Management and the Long-Run Market Performance of Initial Public Offerings

Issuers of initial public offerings (IPOs) can report earnings in excess of cash flows by taking positive accruals. This paper provides evidence that issuers with unusually high accruals in the IPO year experience poor stock return performance in the three years thereafter. IPO issuers in the most "aggressive" quartile of earnings managers have a three-year aftermarket stock return of approximately 20 percent less than IPO issuers in the most "conservative" quartile. They also issue about 20 percent fewer seasoned equity offerings. These differences are statistically and economically significant in a variety of specifications.     

Interfirm differences in earnings variability: an analysis of fundamentals,cash flows and accruals

Prior research shows that the time‐series variability of corporate earnings affects forecasting accuracy and corporate risk, yet little is known about the determinants of earnings variability. This study analyses interfirm differences in earnings variability. Large‐sample evidence shows how the ratio of accrual variability to cash‐flow variability varies across a cross‐section of firms and how these components and the correlation between contemporaneous cash flows and accruals are related to key economic fundamentals.     

Limited attention,statement of cash flow disclosure,and the valuation of accruals

We test for the effect of limited attention on the valuation of accruals by comparing the immediate and long-term market reactions to earnings announcements between a subsample of firms that disclose only the balance sheet with a subsample of firms that disclose both the balance sheet and the statement of cash flows (SCF) in the earnings press release. Information about accruals generally can be inferred from comparative balance sheets, but the availability of the SCF makes accruals more salient and easier to process for investors with limited attention. Controlling for potential additional information and endogeneity of SCF disclosure, we find strong evidence that SCF disclosure enables more efficient pricing of accruals. Further analyses using a proxy for investor sophistication suggest that, when SCF is absent from the earnings press release, less sophisticated investors fail to discount accruals but sophisticated investors do.     

Dissecting and connecting the growth and accounting distortion components of accruals

This study refines the accrual decomposition approach in Richardson et al. (Account Rev 81:713–743, 2006) and introduces a growth measure that is free from accounting distortions. My evidence indicates that the lower persistence of accruals extends to accruals that are unrelated to accounting distortions. I, however, find that the growth and accounting distortion components of accruals are not isolated. Growth may provide a context where firms have more incentives to manipulate earnings. I provide evidence that the persistence of both the growth and accounting distortion components of accruals is affected by firm growth and agency cost factors, such as free cash flows, leverage, and overvalued equity. I also document high accounting distortions for relatively high-growth firms that are close to reporting positive earnings, and negative accounting distortions for relatively low-growth firms that are far from the potential to report positive earnings.     

Accruals,Cash Flows,and Equity Values

We find, as predicted, that the differential ability of accrual and cash flow components of earnings to help forecast future abnormal earnings and the persistence of the components result in the components having different valuation implications. We base our tests on Ohlson (1999) applied to fourteen industries. We find: (1) Accruals and cash flows aid in forecasting future abnormal earnings incremental to abnormal earnings and equity book value. (2) Accruals and cash flows provide explanatory power for equity market value incremental to equity book value and abnormal earnings. (3) There is evidence that accruals and cash flows valuation coefficients are consistent with the Ohlson model.     

Cash from operations and earnings management in Korea

Our study investigates the relationship between the operating performances of Korean industrial firms and the behavior of discretionary accruals during the period 1994-1997. We hypothesize that the degree of earnings management will depend on the firm operating performances. We construct 10 “cash from operations (CFO)” portfolios to test if there are systematic differences in discretionary accruals across portfolios.Four test methods (a mean accrual test, a correlation test, a regression analysis, and a sign-change test) are used to investigate if operating performances affect discretionary accruals differently. We compare three accrual estimation approaches (two discretionary accruals and total accruals) in testing the earnings management hypotheses.The results support the hypothesis that Korean industrial firms manage earnings. When operating performance is poor, the firms tend to choose income-increasing strategies. In addition, when operating performance is extremely poor, some firms tend to take a big bath, while some of the exceptionally well-performing firms tend to select income-decreasing strategies.