The efficiency of bonus-or-terminate incentive schemes under subjective evaluations

We study a repeated principal–agent model with subjective evaluations. We construct simple bonus-or-terminate incentive schemes. In these schemes, the principal evaluates the agent every T periods. The principal pays a bonus and asks the agent to work for T more periods if the evaluation is positive. The relationship is terminated if the evaluation is negative. The inefficiencies in these schemes vanish as the agent can be more frequently evaluated. This result holds generally under objective or subjective evaluations.     

Recycling of plastics: A materials balance optimisation model

At present the volume of solid waste produced in modern consumer societies is increasing, requiring policy measures to reduce the volume of waste to be dumped or incinerated. In this article a materials balance optimisation model for the recycling of plastics is developed to analyse the impact of policy measures that stimulate recycling. The study presents the structure of the optimisation model and it gives the results of a charge imposed on the dumping and incineration of plastics. The calculations show that considerable effort should be made to reach the recycling targets for plastic that have been set by the public authorities for the year 2000.     

An economic analysis of mixing wastes

Using a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous waste, this paper studies optimal waste policy when households have to exert separation effort to produce homogeneous waste streams suitable for recycling. Our model explicitly allows for changes in the composition (quality) of waste streams depending on how much effort households are willing to spend on separating different types of waste. Accordingly, we are able to generalize some earlier contributions to the waste management literature and demonstrate that with both mixing and effort included, a first-best optimum is feasible under reasonable conditions. In particular, we find that a (modified) deposit-refund system still provides the optimal incentives to guide recycling as well as legal disposal (landfilling) and illegal dumping. Both the number and level of taxes and subsidies needed to reach the first-best depend crucially on the socially optimal level of dumping as well as the socially optimal composition of the mix. We are grateful to two anonymous referees, Leon Bettendorf, Elbert Dijkgraaf, Don Fullerton and Matthieu Glachant for constructive comments and useful discussions on an earlier version of this paper.     

The empirical analysis of the determinants for environmental technological change: A research agenda

Technological change is usually considered a necessary albeit not sufficient condition for a transition to sustainability. However, the empirical analysis of the determinants to environmental technological change has not received too much attention in the environmental/ecological economics literature and many open questions remain in this context. Based on a careful review of the literature, this paper argues that further analysis should address several issues at different levels: i.e., regarding the conceptual framework, the thematic scope of the studies, some methodological issues and other aspects related to the environmental policy variable. First, an integrated conceptual framework which takes into account the interplay between relevant variables influencing environmental technological change (i.e., factors internal and external to the firm and characteristics of the environmental technologies) and all the stages of this process, with a greater emphasis on the invention stage, should be developed. Other aspects should then be tackled, including a focus on several themes (i.e., a greater attention to cross-sectoral technologies, the barriers to different types of environmental technologies, the international dimension of environmental technological change and environmental technological change in small and medium size enterprises), methodological issues (combination of case studies and econometric modelling) and several issues related to the environmental policy variable.     

A functional approach for studying technological progress: Extension to energy technology

This paper extends a broad functional category approach for the study of technological capability progress recently developed and applied to information technology to a second key case—that of energy based technologies. The approach is applied to the same three functional operations—storage, transportation and transformation—that were used for information technology by first building a 100 plus year database for each of the three energy-based functional categories. In agreement with the results for information technology in the first paper, the energy technology results indicate that the functional approach offers a stable methodology for assessing longer time technological progress trends. Moreover, similar to what was found with information technology in the first study, the functional capability for energy technology shows continual—if not continuous—improvement that is best quantitatively described as exponential with respect to time. The absence of capability discontinuities—even with large technology displacement—and the lack of clear saturation effects are found with energy as it was with information. However, some key differences between energy and information technology are seen and these include:

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Lower rates of progress for energy technology over the entire period: 19-37% annually for Information Technology and 3-13% for Energy Technology.

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Substantial variability of progress rates is found within given functional categories for energy compared to relatively small variation within any one category for information technology. The strongest variation is found among capability progress among different energy types.

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More challenging data recovery and metric definition for energy as compared to information technology.

These findings are interpreted in terms of fundamental differences between energy and information including the losses and efficiency constraints on energy. We apply Whitney's insight that these fundamental differences lead to naturally modular information technology artifacts. The higher progress rates of information-based as opposed to energy-based technologies follows since decomposable systems can progress more rapidly due to the greater ease of independent as opposed to simultaneous development. In addition, the broad implications of our findings to studies of the relationships between technical and social change are briefly discussed.     

A model of technological breakthrough in the renewable energy sector

Models with induced technological change in the energy sector often predict a gradual expansion of renewable energies, and a substantial share of fossil fuels remaining in the energy mix through the end of our century. However, there are historical examples where new products or technologies expanded rapidly and achieved a high output in a relatively short period of time. This paper explores the possibility of a ‘technological breakthrough’ in the renewable energy sector, using a partial equilibrium model of energy generation with endogenous R&D. Our results indicate, that due to increasing returns-to-scale, a multiplicity of equilibria can arise. In the model, two stable states can coexist, one characterized by a lower and one by higher supply of renewable energy. The transition from the low-output to the high-output equilibrium is characterized by a discontinuous rise in R&D activity and capacity investments in the renewable energy sector. The transition can be triggered by a rise in world energy demand, by a drop in the supply of fossil fuels, or by policy intervention. Under market conditions, the transition occurs later than in the social optimum. Hence, we identify a market failure related to path-dependence and technological lock-in, that can justify a strong policy intervention initially. Paradoxically, well-intended energy-saving policies can actually lead to higher emissions, as they reduce the incentives to invest in renewable energies by having a cushioning effect on the energy price. Hence, these policies should be supplemented by other instruments that restore the incentives to invest in renewable energies. Finally, we discuss the influence of monopoly power in the market for innovations. We show that market power can alleviate the problem of technological lock-in, but creates a new market failure that reduces static efficiency.     

A dynamic model of advertising by the regulated firm

A profit-maximizing firm subject to price regulation typically seeks alternative variables to control if the regulatory constraint is binding. Advertising may be one such variable. By shifting the demand curve inward or outward between rate hearings, the firm may increase its earnings above the allowed level. Here, a simple discrete-time optimal-control model is proposed to examine the dynamic implications of advertising by the regulated firm. Our results indicate that, in the long run, the combined effect of regulation and advertising leads to a steady-state equilibrium that is closer to the minimum point on the firm's long-run average-cost curve than the original output level. Thus, an invisible-hand property is established that pushes the regulated firm to shift its demand curve toward the minimum point on its long-run average-cost curve in the presence of regulation. As a result, the well-known allocative inefficiency created by rate-of-return regulation (PMC), on which so much has been written over the past 100 years, is reduced (and, under certain conditions, eliminated) if the regulated firm is allowed to advertise.     

A model of quality control based on recycling economy and sustainable manufacture

People currentiy pay attention to a hotspot problem that how industrial production is evaluated and controlled based on sustainable development theory. Quality is one of the important indexes. Two mainstream theories guide us to realize the industrial sustainable development： mainly the circular economy and sustainable manufacturing are introduced. The basic characteristics of the sustainable manufacturing are introduced, and that quality management is important contents of sustainable development is indicated. Based on circular economy and sustainable manufacture theories, the drawbacks in the existing quality management models are analyzed. The requests that satisfy the big system ＂environment- society - economy＂ are summarized to build up a model. A Chinese traditional cultural principle is applied and the relevant contents are sublimated as the platform to set up the model. The new quality management concept models are put forward ＂T- D- R＂ three-dimensional structures and ＂ecological quality loop＂ model, from which the new quality concepts are formed The paper elaborates the contents and the process of setting up the models. The big quality problems of the system can be handled by the new quality concept and model that are validated in practice.     

Competition,variety and technological evolution: A replicator dynamics model

In this paper a model of technological evolution based on replicator dynamics is developed. Such a model is based on a twin characteristics representation of product technology and on a population approach. The model can give a general representation of technological evolution, but this paper concentrates on the relationship between variety and competition. Variety is considered to be a very important variable influencing economic development. By means of the characteristics and population approach adopted in this paper it is possible to distinguish between inter-and intra-technology competition. In this paper it is demonstrated that the variety of the system can only increase if intra-technology competition is more intense than inter-technology competition. Intuitively this implies that new technologies will only be able to emerge if incumbent technologies experience the competition coming from the new ones to be weaker than their own internal competition.     

On the impacts of carbon tax and technological progress on China

Using a dynamic national computable general equilibrium model, we investigate the impact of carbon tax and energy efficiency improvement on the economy and environment of China. The Chinese social account matrix is presented based upon the latest input–output table (2012 IO table) and other data. The business as usual (BAU) scenario is designed according to several forecasts about China by 2030, followed by six policy scenarios, including different levels of carbon tax and technological progress as well as their combinations. The results show that carbon tax will frustrate the overall economic growth slightly. The CO₂ emission will be 13.81% lower in 2030 compared to BAU case if the carbon tax scheme is carried out at a rate of 200 RMB/ton of CO₂. Technological progress will stimulate the economic growth, enrich the household and government income, increase total investment and make most sectors prosperous with the exception of energy industries.     

技术进步对能源消费回报效应的估算

"回报效应"是能源经济学中的一个著名命题,但在国内尚缺乏实证检验.本文以改革开放以来中国宏观经济能源消费数据为样本,对这一命题进行了计量检验.结果表明,在中国宏观经济层面上,"回报效应"在30-80%波动,而且20世纪90年代的平均回报率要明显低于20世纪80年代.对此进一步分析后本文认为"回报效应"将呈现三种趋势:"回报效应"越来越低;更多地体现为"硬"技术进步方面;更多地体现在生活部门.     

进入管制行业的集聚效应和社会福利——基于航空航天制造业的实证研究

基于省级和国家层面的宏观数据,分别构建了产业集聚和社会福利发展水平的综合评价指标体系,利用脱钩理论分析了我国航空航天制造产业的集聚效应及其与社会福利发展水平之间的关系。研究表明:航空航天制造业在东部地区发展迅猛;产业集聚的总体水平呈现下降趋势;集聚效应所带来的社会福利总体发展水平呈现下降的趋势,直接福利和间接福利并没有得到同步发展;产业集聚和社会福利发展水平多为同向变化,集聚福利脱钩指数呈现下降趋势;进入管制政策在一定程度上能够促进产业发展。     

DRAMs as model organisms for study of technological evolution

The short, well-documented market life of generations of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) computer chips makes them an excellent “model organism,” like the fruit fly, for study of evolution, in this case technological. Using classic models of logistic growth, substitution, and learning, we examine the global dynamics of eight generations of DRAMs and forecast the market characteristics of the next DRAM generations.     

A Post-Consumer Waste Management Model for Determining Optimal Levels of Recycling and Landfilling

The present study examines the optimal recycling rate for municipal solid waste. First, an optimal control model is developed to account for the physical costs of recycling, the social costs of landfilling, and consumers' environmental preferences. Second, an optimal solution is simulated using waste disposal data from the Helsinki region in Finland. The benefits from recycling are included in the simulation using the results of a recent contingent valuation study. The results of the present research suggest that mandates for achieving 50% recycling in municipalities are not far-fetched and are both economically and environmentally justified.     

保险行业营销员管理缺失现象研究

自从保险营销机制被引进中国,对中国保险行业的发展起到重要的推动作用。但是由于经济环境的不断变化以及营销员数量的不断增多,原有的保险营销员管理机制越来越跟不上行业发展的需要。主要介绍当前形势下,保险营销员的管理缺失现象,并从行业和社会发展角度分析加强营销员管理的必要性。     

Anticipation effects of technological progress on capital accumulation: a vintage capital approach

Due to embodied technological progress new generations of capital goods are more productive. Therefore, in order to study the effects of technological progress, a model must be analyzed in which different generations of capital goods can be distinguished. We determine in what way the firm adjusts current investments to predictions of technological progress. In the presence of market power we show that a negative anticipation effect occurs, i.e. current investments in recent generations of capital goods decline when faster technological progress will take place in the future, because then it becomes more attractive to wait for new generations of capital goods. In case that only investments in new machines are possible, actually a whole wave of anticipation phases arises.     

A model of local labor market regulation of China in the transition period

With the establishment of labor market of China, market is playing a more and mare important role in allocation of human resources. However, with the transition of economy in China and industrial upgrading in recent years, many labor problems have occurred which do harm to the sustainable development of local economy. The paper researches on the labor market issues of China from the perspective of local labor market regulation. Firstly, it reviews the theories of local labor market regulation. And then the main components of local labor market regulation of China are identified and the evaluation index system is established. The results of analysis of the calculated output show that （1） the local labor market regulation of China has an obvious character of gradient distribution geographically and decreases gradually from east to west; （2） of all the regulations, the regulation of the development of human capital has the most significant impact on local economy currently which is followed by the regulation of labor relation and the regulation of market participation. As to the regulation of social security, it has no Significant impact on the development of local economy.     

A model of local labor market reguiation of Chin in the transition period

With the establishment of labor market of China,market is playing a more and more important role in allocation of human resources.However,with the transition of economy in China and industrial upgrading in recent years,many labor problems have occurred which do harm to the sustainable development of local economy.The paper researches on the labor market issues of China from the perspective of local labor market regulation,Firstly,reviews the theories of local labor market regulation.And then the main components of local labor market regulation of China are identified and the evaluation index system is established,The results of analysis of the calculated output show that (1) the local labor market regulation of China has an obvious character of gradient distribution geographically and decreases gradually from east to west;(2) of all the regulations,the regulation of the development of human capital has the most significant impact on local economy currently which is followed by the regulation of laborrelation and the regulation of market participation.As to the regulation of social security,it has no significant impact on the development of local economy.