Dynamic portfolio choice with deferred annuities

We derive the optimal life-cycle portfolio choice and consumption pattern for households facing uncertain labor income, risky capital market, and mortality risk. In addition to stocks and bonds, the households have access to deferred annuities. Deferred payout life annuities are financial contracts providing life-long income to the annuitant after a specified period of time conditional on survival. We find that deferred annuities play an important role in household portfolios and generate significant welfare gains. Households with high benefits from state pensions, moderate risk aversion and moderate labor income risk purchase deferred annuities from age 40 and gradually increase their portfolio share. At retirement, deferred annuities account for 78% of total financial wealth. Households with low state pensions and high labor income risk purchase more annuities and earlier. Uncertainty with respect to future mortality rates has the same effect, i.e. household hedge against longevity risks using deferred annuities.     

The fair value of guaranteed annuity options

We discuss the fair valuation of Guaranteed Annuity Options, i.e. options providing the right to convert deferred survival benefits into annuities at fixed conversion rates. The use of doubly stochastic stopping times and of affine processes provides great computational and analytical tractability, while enabling to set up a very general valuation framework. For example, the valuation of options on traditional, unit-linked or indexed annuities is encompassed. Moreover, security and reference fund prices may feature stochastic volatility or discontinuous dynamics. The longevity risk is also taken into account, by letting the evolution of mortality present stochastic dynamics subject not only to random fluctuations but also to systematic deviations.     

Social security, life insurance and annuities for families

In this paper we ask whether an aspect of social security, namely its role as a provider of insurance against uncertain life spans, is welfare enhancing. To this end we use an OLG model where agents have a bequest motive and differ in sex and marital status and where families are formed and destroyed and their characteristics evolve (exogenously) according to U.S. demographic patterns of marriage, divorce, fertility and mortality. We compare the implications of social security under a variety of market structures that differ in the extent to which life insurance and annuities are available. We find that social security is a bad idea. In economies where the private sector provides annuities and life insurance, it is a bad idea for the standard reason that it distorts the intertemporal margin by lowering the capital stock. In the absence of such securities social security is still a very bad idea, only marginally less so compared with economies with annuities and life insurance. We also explore these issues in a world where people live longer and we find no differences in our answers. As a by-product of our analysis we find that the existence of life insurance opportunities for people is important in welfare terms while that of annuities is not.     

Factors Affecting Retirement Mortality

Abstract

As many countries consider mandatory individual retirement accounts as their answer to a secure social security system, the question arises as to whether all workers can get true “market value” annuities when they retire. It is clear today that private-sector life annuities are priced assuming that the applicant is healthy—very healthy. Very little underwriting or risk classification now exists in the individual annuity marketplace. However, if a large percentage of the population were looking to annuitize their social security accounts upon retirement, there would be strong pressure for more risk classes in the annuity-pricing structure.

Even without the advent of individual accounts for social security, the authors of this paper feel there may be real market opportunities for more risk classification in the individual annuity market and the offering of “impaired life annuities.” Given that this pressure does or might soon exist, this paper reviews 45 recent research papers that look at factors that affect mortality after retirement. In particular, factors that seem to be important in predicting retirement mortality include age, gender, race and ethnicity, education, income, occupation, marital status, religion, health behaviors, smoking, alcohol, and obesity. for each factor, this paper gives highlights relative to the named factor of the impact expected from that variable as described in the 45 reviewed research papers.

The authors believe there is a wealth of information contained in the summaries that follow, and it is our sincere hope that this paper will cause an increased interest in a more broadly based risk classification structure for individual annuities.

Summaries of the 45 papers can be found at www.soa.org/sections/farm/farm.html.     

加拿大低收入家庭保障计划对我国的启示——从完善最低生活保障制度的视角

加拿大拥有覆盖全民待遇优厚的社会保障系统,其中的低收入家庭保障计划针对低收入家庭的不同情况,设有税收减免补贴、儿童福利金、养老保障收入补贴、住房补贴等各种个性化救助项目,同时该计划以政府财政为支付保障、鼓励社会力量参与,基本实现了对低收入人群的全面救助,对加拿大社会和经济的稳定发展起到了重要作用。分析加拿大的低收入家庭保障计划,总结其先进经验,对完善我国最低生活保障制度具有一定的启示。     

Optimal Annuitization Policies

Abstract

At, or about, the age of retirement, most individuals must decide what additional fraction of their marketable wealth, if any, should be annuitized. Annuitization means purchasing a nonrefundable life annuity from an insurance company, which then guarantees a lifelong consumption stream that cannot be outlived. The decision of whether or not to annuitize additional liquid assets is a difficult one, since it is clearly irreversible and can prove costly in hindsight. Obviously, for a large group of people, the bulk of financial wealth is forcefully annuitized, for example, company pensions and social security. For others, especially as it pertains to personal pension plans, such as 401(k), 403(b), and IRA plans as well as variable annuity contracts, there is much discretion in the matter.

The purpose of this paper is to focus on the question of when and if to annuitize. Specifically, my objective is to provide practical advice aimed at individual retirees and their advisors. My main conclusions are as follows:

? Annuitization of assets provides unique and valuable longevity insurance and should be actively encouraged at higher ages. Standard microeconomic utility-based arguments indicate that consumers would be willing to pay a substantial “loading” in order to gain access to a life annuity.

? The large adverse selection costs associated with life annuities, which range from 10% to 20%, might serve as a strong deterrent to full annuitization.

? Retirees with a (strong) bequest motive might be inclined to self-annuitize during the early stages of retirement. Indeed, it appears that most individuals—faced with expensive annuity products—can effectively “beat” the rate of return from a fixed immediate annuity until age 75?80. I call this strategy consume term and invest the difference.

? Variable immediate annuities (VIAs) combine equity market participation together with longevity insurance. This financial product is currently underutilized (and not available in certain jurisdictions) and can only grow in popularity.     

Private Rentenversicherung, Besteuerung und adverse Selektion

Adverse selection is commonly regarded as an important explanation for the limited size of voluntary annuity markets. Annuitants tend to be longer-lived than the population at large, thus making annuities too expensive for average individuals. Because German tax law discrimates between annuities and other forms of investment, privileged taxation of annuities might compensate for the cost of adverse selection. A major change in the taxation of annuities has been passed recently: From 2005 on, premium payments for deferred life annuities will be tax-deductible and annuities paid out will be fully taxable, if the annuitant cannot opt for an endowment. Premiums for other contracts are not tax-deductible and annuities are partly taxable. Unlike today, endowment payments won’t be tax free, anymore. We evaluate the cost of theoretical, fairly priced contracts for annuitants and non-annuitants using the money’s worth ratio. Therefore, the money’s worth concept is extended to the case of deferred annuities. Our calculations suggest that, under current legislation, average individuals have no incentive to annuitize. In contrast, under new legislation, the tax advantage of the deferred annuity without endowment option more than compensates for the cost of adverse selection. Single premium annuities will remain too expensive for average men, but may become advantageous for average women in some cases.     

Market's perception of deferred tax accruals

This study investigates the value relevance and incremental information content of deferred tax accruals reported under the ‘income statement method’ (AASB 1020 Accounting for Income Taxes) over the period 2001–2004. Our findings suggest that deferred tax accruals are viewed as assets and liabilities. We document a positive relation between recognized deferred tax assets and firm value using the levels model, while the results from the returns model suggest that deferred tax liabilities reflect future tax payments. The balance of unrecognized deferred tax assets provides a negative signal to the market about future profitability, particularly for companies from the materials and energy sectors and loss‐makers.     

社会保障对收入分配差距的调节效应——基于陕西省宝鸡市住户调查数据的实证研究

社会保障具有重要的收入再分配功能,在很多国家社会保障都是调节居民收入分配差距最重要的手段。本文对陕西省宝鸡市住户调查数据的实证研究表明,社会保障转移性收入缩小了居民收入分配差距,使城乡居民收入的基尼系数下降了4.5%,其中城镇居民基尼系数下降22.8%,农村居民基尼系数下降1.82%。但由于农村居民获得的社会保障转移性收入远远低于城镇居民,从而导致城乡收入差距上升23.17%。为抑制收入分配差距的进一步扩大,中国应重视社会保障对收入分配的调节作用,进一步增加社会保障的财政投入。尤其要加大对农村社会保障的财政投入,尽快扭转社会保障对城乡收入差距的逆向调节。     

农地承包经营权资产收益分配与农民社保资金筹集管理研究

随着我国农村社会保障制度的不断完善,农民参保范围日益扩大,参保人数快速增加,社会保障资金需求金额急增,财政负担加重.而一方面,在我国社会主义市场经济体制中,村集体所有的农村土地等公有资产的增值收益,本该属于村民的保障收益,却因为缺乏增值收益再分配管理,从而造成农民社会保障基金资金严重短缺问题.因此,必须加强农村土地等公...     

NINA/LILA debtors under the Portuguese Insolvency Act: A hidden problem in plain sight?

No income, no assets (NINA) and low income, low assets (LILA) debtors are a non‐negligible part of the increasingly ‘financialized’ market economy. Falling outside the financial market or accessing it through low quality financial products, NINA/LILA debtors appear to be under prioritized by both legal and judicial regimes and public policies. Focusing on the legal and judicial dimension, and taking as an illustration the Portuguese context, we discuss how preinsolvency and insolvency solutions still remain ill‐adjusted for such cases. In spite the existence of some legal provisions aiming at fostering access to law and courts regardless individuals' financial conditions, they do not perform very well with insolvent debtors lacking a regular income. Addicionally, there are non‐legal barriers that prevent those with less economic means to fight properly for their social and economic rights.     

Asset allocation decisions in retirement accounts: an all-or-nothing proposition?

An examination of survey responses about Individual Retirement Account (IRA) holdings reveals that individuals often take all-or-nothing approaches in their decisions to diversify across the asset categories of cash, bonds, and equity. Two thirds of survey respondents put their entire IRA holdings into a single asset category. A surprisingly large proportion of funds is held in cash, while only a minimal amount is invested in bonds. These findings also contrast with those of Bodie and Crane’s (1997) examination of TIAA-CREF participants, which is heavily weighted with individuals holding fixed income annuities. Our results suggest that there is a compelling need for risk education for investors.     

Piggy Banks: Financial Intermediaries as a Commitment to Save

Banks and other intermediaries may help savers commit to investment plans that savers could not stick to if they held assets directly. We illustrate this commitment function using a version of the Diamond and Dybvig (1983) model where savers’ short-run liquidity needs are correlated with shocks to investment opportunities. The investment securities are all freely tradeable, yet savers still do better if they delegate their investment decisions to an intermediary that overrides the savers’ liquidity demands when investment opportunities warrant. Bank CDs, insurance annuities, pensions, and even social security, by locking funds out of reach, may all constitute real world examples of this commitment role of financial intermediaries.     

Valuing Equity-Indexed Annuities

Abstract

Equity-indexed annuities have generated a great deal of interest and excitement among both insurers and their customers since they were first introduced to the marketplace in early 1995. Because of the embedded options in these products, the insurers are presented with some challenging mathematical problems when it comes to the pricing and management of equity indexed annuities. This paper explores the pricing aspect of three of the most common product designs: the point-to-point, the cliquet, and the lookback. Based on certain assumptions, we are able to present the pricing formulas in closed form for the three product designs. The method of Esscher transforms is the fundamental tool for pricing such deferred annuities.     

保单持有人退保行为对变额年金利益保证风险对冲的影响研究

给出保单持有人退保行为影响下的变额年金定价模型和对冲模型,当保单持有人分别采取无退保、固定退保和动态退保三种行为策略时,基于包含最低身故利益保证、最低满期利益保证和最低提取利益保证的三种不同的变额年金,运用蒙特卡罗模拟测试出保单持有人采取不同的退保策略对不同利益保证的变额年金风险对冲有着显著的不同影响。     

Annuity Markets and Retirement Security

The growing importance of defined contribution pension arrangements has drawn increased attention to the means by which retired people draw down their assets. Current UK law requires annuitisation of at least a fraction of defined contribution plan accumulations. Annuity markets have recently attracted some criticism with respect to pricing and the available range of product options. This paper describes a key feature of voluntary annuity markets: the presence of ‘adverse selection’. This is the tendency of annuitants to live longer than non‐annuitants, since individuals who know that they are likely to die soon do not purchase annuities. The paper presents information that quantifies the importance of adverse selection in the setting of private annuity prices and discusses the role of compulsory annuitisation requirements in reducing it. Requiring individuals to participate in the annuity market can reduce selection effects, at the cost of reducing individuals' range of retirement income options.     

Optimal Gradual Annuitization: Quantifying the Costs of Switching to Annuities

We compute the optimal dynamic annuitization and asset allocation policy for a retiree with Epstein–Zin preferences, uncertain investment horizon, potential bequest motives, and pre‐existing pension income. In our setting the retiree can decide each year how much he consumes and how much he invests in stocks, bonds, and life annuities, while the prior literature mostly considered restricted so‐called deterministic or stochastic switching strategies. We show that postponing the annuity purchase is no longer optimal in the gradual annuitization (GA) case since investors are able to attain the optimal mix between liquid assets (stocks and bonds) and illiquid life annuities each year. In order to assess potential utility losses, we benchmark various restricted annuitization strategies against the unrestricted GA strategy.     

递延所得税核算问题探究——解读资产、负债的计税基础

2006新准则有关所得税核算的一个重大变化,是从原来的"应付税款法"变为"纳税影响会计法",且要求企业采用"资产负债表债务法"核算其递延所得税。"资产负债表债务法"的关键问题是确定资产、负债的计税基础,资产、负债的计税基础确定了,其暂时性差异也就确定了,相应地,递延所得税资产或递延所得税负债的确认、计量也就迎刃而解了。本文结合国际上对资产、负债的计税基础的阐释,结合我国实际情况,提出了一套确定资产、负债计税基础的切实可行的程序和方法。     

In Defense of Pay-as-You-Go (Paygo) Financing of Social Security

Abstract

Today’s proposals to create larger social security funds and then invest them in the private sector are intended to create more rapid economic growth, which would make it easier to pay social security benefits in the long run. These proposals are also aimed at enhancing intergenerational equity by making today’s workers pay for a greater proportion of their future benefits.

The important public policy issues inherent in such proposals are numerous: questions of whether prefunded social security plans are demographically immune; whether prefunding social security can increase gross national savings and worker productivity; whether there are better ways to create a healthy economy; whether social security is best offered as a defined-benefit plan or a defined-contribution plan. This paper explores each of these important public policy issues in the context of the social security systems of Canada and the U.S.     

Worries and plans as individuals approach retirement

The primary objective of an employment-based retirement plan is to provide a secure and adequate income for workers throughout retirement. In the defined contribution (DC) framework, asset accumulation is a means to the end, but not the end. Drawing retirement income from savings and paying for health care expenses in retirement are the two issues that concern individuals the most as they approach retirement. This article examines the attitudes of near-retirees regarding these risks and their plans for managing them. The author discusses how DC plan design can have a major impact on how individuals convert their retirement savings to retirement income; differences in survey responses between those who have consulted a financial advisor or other financial professional and those who have not; and the role of trust in implementing advice.