皮格马利翁模型:研究个体创造性的新视角——一个扩展模型的提出

皮格马利翁模型(Pygmalion model)是解释环境中他人期望对个体绩效表现影响机制的模型。皮格马利模型将上级行为视为与上级期望最为接近且最为基础的关系。将创造性角色认同这一个体自我意识变量加入到模型进行分析,以期为角色认同与自我效能间关系研究提供借鉴。     

Intermediate Macroeconomics without the IS-LM Model

The IS-LM model is the primary model of economic fluctuations taught in intermediate-level undergraduate macroeconomics. Recent works by Taylor and Romer make a strong case for an alternative model, known as the aggregate demand-price adjustment (AD-PA) or the aggregate demand-inflation adjustment (AD-IA) model, as a better model of economic fluctuations. The author argues that the AD-PA model is superior to the IS-LM model for teaching about economic fluctuations in intermediate macroeconomics. He compares the perfomance of the two models in teaching about two important issues in current macroeconomics: the ineffectiveness of monetary policy in stimulating the 1990s Japanese economy and the rapid switch of the U.S. Federal Reserve from contractionary policy to expansionary policy in 2001.     

Gauging the performance of the linear-quadratic inventory model

The explanatory and predictive abilities of the infinite-horizon linear-quadratic inventory model are gauged using the flexible-accelerator model as a baseline. Tests of explanatory power for six nondurables industries indicate that the flexible accelerator has superior explanatory power for inventories and output in the majority of industries. Tests of predictive ability during the late 1990s also support the superiority of the flexible-accelerator model.     

Uncertain Medical Expenses and Precautionary Saving Near the End of the Life Cycle

This paper introduces a dynamic, structural model of household consumption decisions in which elderly families consider the effects of uncertain future medical expenses when deciding current levels of consumption. The model with uncertain medical expenses implies a potentially important role for precautionary saving incentives to explain slow rates of dissaving among elderly Americans during retirement. Rather than just simulating the stochastic dynamic model, preference parameters are estimated using panel data on health, wealth and expenditures for retired families. The health uncertainty model predicts consumption levels closer to observed expenditures than a life cycle model with uncertain longevity. However, elderly families typically dissave their financial assets more slowly than even the baseline health uncertainty model predicts is optimal.     

Forecasting the S&P 500 index volatility

This study introduces a new pre-differencing transformation for the AR1MA model for forecasting S&P 500 index volatility. The out of sample forecasting performance of the ARIMA model using the new pre-differencing transformation is compared with the out of sample forecasting performance of the mean reversion model and the GARCH model. The ARIMA model using the new pre-differencing transformation introduced in this study is found to be superior to both the mean reversion model and the GARCH model in forecasting monthly S&P 500 index volatility for the forecast comparison periods used in this study.     

Evaluating the performance of the search and matching model

Does the search and matching model fit aggregate U.S. labor market data? While the model has become an important tool of macroeconomic analysis, recent literature pointed to some significant failures in accounting for the data. This paper aims to answer two questions: (i) Does the model fit the data, and, if so, on what dimensions? (ii) Does the data “fit” the model, i.e. what are the data which are relevant to be explained by the model?The analysis shows that the model fits certain specifications of the data on many dimensions, though not on all. This includes capturing the high persistence and high volatility of most of the key variables, the negative co-variation of unemployment and vacancies, and the behavior of the worker job finding rate. A key role in this fit is played by the convexity of hiring costs and the stochastic properties of the separation rate. The latter is a major component of the rate discounting the future value of the job-worker match.The paper offers a workable, empirically grounded version of the model for the analysis of aggregate U.S. labor market dynamics.     

基于网络的新型药品营销模式探索

药品在质量、包装规格、主要成分、主要功能、适用范围等都可以高度标准化,因此药品是非常适合从事网上交易的。本文就目前药品网络营销在发达国家和我国的发展现状进行概要性总结,指出我国的药品网络营销与发达国家在此方面的差距,对药品网络营销在我国发展的市场前景进行了分析和预测,介绍了电子商务中的B2C经营模式,以及一种将B2C经营模式应用于药品网络销售的新营销模式,分别从构建新型B2C药品营销模式与零售药店和连锁药店的合作模式、对消费者的服务模式以及新型B2C药品营销模式的盈利方式等方面探讨了新型B2C网络药店的可行性,并深入分析了这种新型B2C药品营销模式相对于传统药店和传统售药网站的优势。最后本文对上述新型B2C网络药店提出了具体的网站参考模型。     

A disequilibrium macroeconomic model of the Belgian economy : The Maribel II model of the Planning Bureau

This paper describes the Maribel II model, a model used by the Belgian Planning Bureau for analysing and simulating macroeconomic changes in the Belgian economy. Its main feature is that it is a disequilibrium model (for both the product and the labour market). During the construction of the model considerable attention was given to its theoretical underpinning. The steady state properties show that the mechanisms are mainly classical with a strong dependence on foreign influences. The multiplier analysis confirms the relatively small multipliers in Belgium and also shows the richness that a disequilibrium model provides for analysing particular policies.     

Testing the Assumptions and Predictions of the Hotelling Model

In this paper, we empirically examine whether the assumptions and predictions of the Hotelling model are consistent with patterns observed in data. We consider nonlinear functional forms for the extraction cost and resource demand to develop an empirical Hotelling model with technological progress and stock dependent extraction costs. Using panel data on fourteen nonrenewable natural resources to estimate this empirical Hotelling model, we get qualitatively different results as compared to the related literature. We find evidence of stock-dependent extraction costs for most resources. There is no evidence against the linearity of the optimal extraction rate in the resource stock for almost all resources studied. Furthermore, the Hotelling model may sustain a zero long-run growth rate in resource prices. These results depend on whether firms use different extractive technologies or whether the structural break observed on resource prices is taken into account.     

Does the balance of power within a family matter? The case of the Retirement Equity Act

This paper studies within-family decision making regarding investment in income protection for surviving spouses using a simple and tractable Nash-bargaining model. A change in US pension law (the Retirement Equity Act of 1984) is used as an instrument to derive predictions from the bargaining model about the household demand for survivor annuities and life insurance and to contrast these with the predictions of the classical single-utility-function model of the household. In the empirical part of the paper, the predictions of the classical model are rejected in favor of the predictions of the Nash-bargaining model.     

Evidence of the duration-dependence from the stock markets in the Pacific Rim economies

This article investigates the duration-dependent feature of five Pacific Rim economies. The duration-dependent Markov Switching model is employed to achieve this objective. The Savage–Dickey density ratio is also computed in support of the duration-dependent Markov switching model. The possible bull and bear market dates for each stock market are also identified by the posterior probability from the empirical model. It is unambiguous that Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong are all characterized by duration-dependence in a bear market but no duration-dependence in a bull market. In the case of Taiwan and Singapore, the duration-dependence feature holds for both the bear and bull markets.     

Tracing the causes of the banking crisis

We add the Bernanke–Gertler–Gilchrist model to a modified version of the Smets–Wouters model of the U.S. in order to explore the causes of the banking crisis. The innovation of this article is estimating the model using unfiltered data allowing for non-stationary shocks in order to replicate how the model predicts the crisis. We find that ‘traditional shocks’ account for most of the fluctuations in macroeconomic variables; the non-stationarity of the productivity shock plays a key role. Crises occur when there is a ‘run’ of bad shocks; based on this sample they occur on average once every 64 years and when they occur around 10% are accompanied by financial crisis. Financial shocks on their own, even when extreme, do not cause crises – provided the government acts swiftly to counteract such a shock as happened in this sample.     

Producing state of the future indexes using the international futures model

This paper reports on the introduction of the State of the Future Index (SOFI) into the University of Denver's International Futures (IFs) modeling system, a synthesis that will permit the calculation and comparison of the SOFI for all nations covered in the model. The SOFI is an index designed to show whether the future outlook is improving or not; it is also useful in policy analysis since it can be used to demonstrate whether contemplated policies appear to change the future, overall, for the better. It is one of the few indexes that are forecasted.The capability to calculate SOFI has been added to the IFs model; this addition now permits the model to calculate SOFI for all of the countries in the model. With this capability national SOFIs can be computed by anyone and for any country, set of countries, region, or globally. The model, its database, and now the SOFI calculation are available online at no cost to the users. This opens the opportunity to produce an annual or biennial publication that tracks and ranks the State of the Future Index for countries, regions, and the world as a whole.     

Reconciling the Evidence on the Knowledge-capital Model

The knowledge‐capital model (KC model), described in Markusen (2002 ), encompasses both market size (horizontal) as well as factor endowment (vertical) explanations to why multinational production occurs. Although the KC model seems intuitively appealing the empirical support has, so far, been mixed and even confused. In this study we find strong, robust and consistent support for the KC model. In contrast to previous studies, our empirical specification is directly mapped from theory. We also use an enlarged dataset, where the data coverage is significantly improved. Our results also give estimated surfaces remarkably similar to theoretical simulations of the KC model. In addition, the results give important insights into why previous studies have yielded such diverse results.     

Trade deficits in the Baltic states: How long will the party last?

Since their opening up to international capital markets, the economies of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have experienced large and persistent capital inflows and trade deficits. This paper investigates whether a calibrated two-sector neoclassical growth model can explain the magnitudes and the timing of the trade flows in the Baltic states. The model is calibrated for each of the three countries, which we simulate as small closed economies that suddenly open up to international trade and capital flows. The results show that the model can account for the observed magnitudes of the trade deficits in the 1995–2004 period. Introducing a real interest rate risk premium in the model increases its explanatory power. The model indicates that trade balances will turn positive in the Baltic states around 2010.     

On the equivalence between the overlapping-generations model and cyclical general-equilibrium models

We show that equilibrium cycles in an overlapping-generations model are equivalent to asymmetric equilibria in a general-equilibrium model. We use this equivalence to find equilibrium cycles in the overlapping-generations model with two and three generations, respectively. For the example with two generations we show that for certain parameter values cycles of all periods occur.     

On the missing equation: Comment

Canto and Miles (CM) present and analyze graphically “a third, alternative method for closing the IS-LM system of equations”—the ‘wedge model’. According to CM, “the result is a more general set of results” and “the two traditional alternatives are only special cases.” The CM model, however, is logically inconsistent. Because CM implicitly assume simultaneous capital market equilibrium and disequilibrium, CM's assumptions are mutually inconsistent. Thus, none of the reported results logically follow. Furthermore, the CM model is not very general. This paper proves analytically that GNP is determined without the IS and LM equations both in the CM model and in the obvious logical patchups of the CM model. Therefore, for example, in the CM model exogenous changes in business-fixed investment or consumption have no predicted effect on national income.     

分析师的估值模型会影响评级的信息含量吗?

本文基于2014—2018年发布的沪深两市A股上市公司深度研究报告,考察了分析师报告中关于估值方法的描述,探究分析师估值模型的选择是否会对其投资意见的信息含量产生影响。研究发现,分析师采用绝对估值模型能够提高评级调整的市场反应,具有一定的增量价值。进一步分组检验发现,在公司成长性较高、不确定性较大、券商实力较弱、分析师之间的竞争程度较高的情况下,使用绝对估值模型对于提高分析师评级调整的信息含量作用更大。本文的研究结论对于理解分析师估值过程的价值和有效性以及分析师研究报告信息含量的影响因素具有重要意义,并为投资者如何使用和评价分析师研究报告提供了一定的参考。     

股票市场发展与经济增长——从流动性的视角

基于前人的重要结论,从流动性的角度,将流动性分为成交量、换手率两个方面。通过向量自回归（VAR）建立模型进行进一步的研究,得出股票交易成交量与经济增长的长期均衡关系,并通过VECM模型与Granger因果关系检验对所建立的模型进行进一步验证。研究结果显示,股票市场的流动性与经济增长存在显著的关系。进一步研究换手率对股票流动性的影响可得出的结论是,股票市场的流动性与经济增长存在长期的均衡关系,并且流动性中,成交额与经济增长存在正向关系,而换手率与经济增长存在负向关系,两者都是通过影响股票市场的总市值来进一步影响经济增长的。     

论拉姆齐模型与现代宏观经济学的发展

拉姆齐在1928年所提出动态最优化模型(拉姆齐模型)及其重要思想湮没了30多年,直到20世纪60年代才被"重新发现",并对现代宏观经济学的发展产生了深远的影响.许多西方经济学家都认为,就理论分析框架而言,拉姆齐模型已经取代了IS-LM模型的位置,成为现代宏观经济学的研究范式.本文透过拉姆齐模型的略带喜剧意味的命运,追寻现代宏观经济学的发展轨迹.