THE DECLINE OF JAPAN'S SAVING RATE AND DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS*

This paper investigates the phenomenon in which Japan's household saving rate showed a sharp decline even during the long stagnation period called “the lost decade.” Our empirical results show that the sharp decline in the saving rate in the 1990s can be explained by the significant impact of demographic factors. Furthermore, the estimated life cycle curve is hump shaped, meaning that the prediction of the life cycle model is confirmed with time series data on the Japanese saving rate.     

WEALTH AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME: PERMANENT AND TRANSITORY EFFECTS

This paper examines the permanent and transitory effects of changes in wealth, the top federal marginal income tax rate, and capital gains tax rate on the distribution of Adjusted Gross Income (AGI). This paper establishes the importance of wealth in determining the distribution of AGI, and results here suggest that its effects can negate the permanent effect of a change in both tax rates. Of the two tax rates, the capital gains tax rate is the most important for AGI distribution. The marginal income tax rate is notably less important for long run behavior, but does have short run impacts.     

“负利率”问题研究的演进与新进展

本文回顾和梳理了国外文献对负利率问题研究的演进过程及新进展,主要包括负利率与经济增长关系,负利率与资产价格关系,“零利率下限”和“负名义利率”。作者对现有研究进行了综合评价,并指出了下一步研究可能的方向。     

CONSUMER DURABLES AND THE INTEREST RATE

This paper investigates the relationship between consumption of a durable good and the interest rate. According to the standard Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH), a rise in the interest rate is expected to decrease durables consumption, and the magnitude of the interest rate effect should meet certain restrictions. This implication of the PIH is tested using US data. Empirical results of this paper indicate that, although durables consumption is negatively correlated with the interest rate, the magnitude of the estimated effect is substantially smaller than requested by the standard theory. This suggests that the influence of monetary policy on durables expenditure may not be as large as previous authors claim. In attempts to explain the small effects of the interest rate, frictions such as adjustment costs and liquidity constraints are examined. [E21]     

THE WEALTH EFFECTS OF INCOME INSURANCE

Precautionary savings models suggest that wealth should rise with income risk. Risk is reduced by means-tested transfers, however, which implies that transfer programs should discourage private wealth accumulation. We offer a comprehensive empirical assessment based on variation across states in the generosity of a number of programs, specifically unemployment insurance and means-tested transfers (Aid to Families with Dependent Children and Food Stamps). We use monthly data on married couples from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to regress wealth on income, income risk, and various measures of transfer generosity. The results support the precaution-ary savings model and reveal moderate negative wealth effects of both unemployment insurance and means-tested transfers, with an elasticity of about −0.18.     

THE EFFECTS OF THE BANK OF JAPAN'S ZERO INTEREST RATE COMMITMENT AND QUANTITATIVE MONETARY EASING ON THE YIELD CURVE: A MACRO‐FINANCE APPROACH*

This paper empirically investigates the effects of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) zero interest rate commitment and quantitative monetary easing on the yield curve. Applying a macro‐finance approach, we decompose interest rates into expectations and risk premium components and extract the market's perception of the BOJ's policy stance. We make clear the counterfactual policy without the BOJ's commitment. We find some evidence that the commitment lowered interest rates and mat raising the reserve target may have been perceived as a signal indicating the BOJ's accommodative policy stance. The portfolio rebalancing effect has not been found to be significant.     

DETERMINANTS OF THE SAVING RATE: AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON

Economists have extensively analyzed the interactions between economic-demographic factors and saving. Fertility rates and the dependency ratio have received considerable attention, but the effect of life expectancy improvements have not been analyzed explicitly. This paper provides an added dimension to the existing literature by empirically examining the role of life expectancy as a determinant of saving. Recent data demonstrate that life expectancy is a statistically significant and quantitatively important factor affecting less developed countries' saving performance. One must consider human capital investments when assessing population growth's impact on saving. The analysis here is one of few that incorporate human capital in defining saving. The overall results are sensitive to level of development and regional diversity .     

INTEREST RATE CORRIDOR,LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT,AND THE OVERNIGHT SPREAD

We analyze the determinants of the overnight spread (the spread between the Borsa Istanbul overnight repo interest rate and the average funding rate of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey [CBRT]) using data from both the conventional and the new monetary policy episodes. We empirically document that the overnight spread has recently been influenced by various factors that are directly or closely related to the liquidity policy of the CBRT. (JEL E43, E52, C24)     

负利率政策的传导渠道和有效性研究*

美国“次贷危机”之后全球经济深陷长期停滞状态,欧元区与日本相继实施负利率政策。负利率打破了政策利率零下限的教条,对现有理论提出了挑战。本文分析了负利率政策可能的传导渠道和影响负利率政策有效性的因素,并对现有的政策效果进行评估。本文发现负利率政策较容易对市场利率和汇率等金融市场变量产生影响;但就实体经济复苏而言,负利率政策成败的关键在于是否能有效增加贷款需求和供给。     

THOMAS TOOKE AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE RATE OF INTEREST ON PRICES: IMPLICATIONS FOR DISTRIBUTION THEORY

Thomas Tooke included money interest among the determinantsof normal money production costs, together with money wagesand production techniques. This inclusion permitted him to explainthe existence, in actual fact, of a direct relationship betweenthe rate of interest and the level of prices. He did not developthe implications for distribution theory of his view of theinfluence of the rate of interest on the price level. In thepresent article it is maintained that the rate of interest emergesfrom Tooke's analysis as the regulator of the ratio of pricesto money wages, with the corollary that there is implicit init a causal relationship between money interest and normal profitthat goes from the former to the latter. This may be connectedwith Sraffa's suggestion of a determination of the rate of profitby the money rate of interest and lend it the support of Tooke'sscrupulous analysis of facts.     

THE WEALTH OF NATIONS: GROWTH, IDEAS, AND TECHNOLOGY

In the following articles Freedman and Jordan examine institutional arrangements that promote high and rising incomes. The quality of institutions may be as important as human capital, investment, and population growth in determining which nations are most prosperous.