The 2018 Clarence Ayres Scholar An Institutional Riposte to the “After the Washington Consensus”

The Washington Consensus as conceived in 1989 by John Williamson, the initiator of the term, was the foundation of the mainstream perspective on international development. The Washington Consensus consisted of a set of ten policies to be imposed through conditionality by international financial institutions on distressed developing countries. The vast criticism that ensued brought a set of policies in the form of the After the Washington Consensus (hereafter the AWC) in 2003, which designated a “new” set of policy reforms and conditionalities for developing countries. The aim of this article is to contrast the two sets of controversial policies, the original Washington Consensus and AWC, to an alternative perspective of international development based on an institutionalist approach.     

The People’s bank of China’s response to the coronavirus pandemic: A quantitative assessment

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has implemented numerous measures to cushion the impacts of the COVID-19 health crisis on the Chinese economy. Since the current monetary policy framework features a multi-instrument mix of liquidity tools and pricing signals, we employ a dynamic-factor modelling approach to derive a composite indicator of China’s monetary policy stance. Our quantitative assessment shows that the PBoC’s policy response to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has been swift and decisive. Specifically, our estimates reveal that the PBoC has implemented novel policy measures to ensure that commercial banks maintain liquidity access and credit provision during the COVID-19 crisis.     

The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate Determination for a “Petrocurrency”: The Case of Norwegian Krone

This paper, by following vector error correction modeling, empirically investigates some of the popular monetary models of the NOK/USD rate. The empirical results suggest that there is some scope for the monetary approach to explain the development of the NOK/USD during the period from 1997 to 2008. The coefficients in the co-integration equation of both money and output differentials are statistically significant and consistent with any of the forms of the monetary models. Moreover, empirical evidence for the proportionality between the exchange rate and relative money is provided. Our findings are robust across different measures of inflation expectations. Although there is no clear evidence regarding the exact version of the monetary model, the estimated unrestricted error correction models can fit the actual NOK/USD exchange rate. Finally, the short-term dynamics of the exchange rate are significantly affected by changes in crude oil prices.     

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s approach to targeted dumping: the wrong test and the wrong response

The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) defines targeted dumping as a pattern of significant differences in the prices that importers charge in the U.S. to different purchasers, in different regions, or during different periods. If DOC finds targeted dumping, then it calculates the average dumping margin using zeroing, a practice that increases the calculated dumping duty. This article shows that DOC is using an inappropriate statistical test in targeted dumping investigations. The article also shows that a finding of targeted dumping does not justify the use of zeroing, an inherently flawed methodology that DOC has discarded in cases without targeted dumping.     

The impact of the judiciary on entrepreneurship: Evaluation of Pakistan's “Access to Justice Programme”

In 2002, the Pakistani government implemented a judicial reform that cost $350 million or 0.1% of Pakistan's 2002 GDP. This reform did not involve increased incentives for judges to improve efficiency but merely provided them with more training. Nonetheless, the reform had dramatic effects on judicial efficiency and consequently on entrepreneurship: judges disposed of a quarter more cases and entry rate of new firms increased by half due to the reform. Using data from the World Bank Group Entrepreneurship Database, our estimates suggest that this translates into an increase of Pakistan's GDP by 0.5%.     

Return to the “natural” process of decision-making leads to good strategies

A novel approach to strategic management, Risk-Constrained Optimization (RCO), is an ensemble of special models, procedures, and algorithms to generate, evaluate, and help in executing good alternative strategies. RCO is a patented system of planning under uncertainty that searches for the most acceptable compromise between improving results and reducing risk in our decisions. Risk management and scenario planning dominate over optimization. RCO still uses maximization, but only in combination with several protective filters that screen, modify, and scale back the strategies, as necessary. As with any protective equipment, RCO could reduce the need for knowledge about the future.JEL Classification: D21, D81, C61I would like to acknowledge extremely helpful and insightful comments of Professor Mark Perlman (to whom this article owes very, very much), Professor Irma Adelman, Erwin Rezelman, Dr. Victor V. Masch, and an anonymous reviewer. I also greatly appreciate help in editing by David Owens and Professor Irving Rothman.     

“The Social and Instuitional Economics of the Original Schumpeter”

ASSA Paper. ASA Session on Schumpeter     

Housing and unemployment: The search for the “American Dream”

This paper constructs a model of search and bargaining across two different markets: the labor market and the housing market. Interestingly, the model highlights that housing prices and frictions in the housing market have a profound impact on labor market activity through the desire of workers to eventually purchase a home, the “American Dream.” In particular, higher housing prices adversely affect workers’ incentives in the labor market as employment can eventually lead to access to housing through the ability to purchase a home. Similarly, labor market frictions can impact housing market activity. Notably, tighter housing markets are associated with higher unemployment rates and less job creation. Consequently, our work suggests that policymakers should be very careful in implementing policies targeted towards housing – housing markets are likely to generate significant external effects to other sectors of the economy, especially the labor market.     

Contributions of the Galbraith “Technostructure” to the Growing Crisis of the U.S. Economy

This paper lays the methodological foundations of an analytical framework that may help shed some new light on the issue of territorial inequalities in the digital economy. It opposes the recent tendency to build up an evolutionary economic geography as an alternative not only to the so-called "New Economic Geography" (namely "geographical mainstream economics") but also to the institutional economic geography. The paper advocates the development of an evolutionary and institutional approach in economic geography, which would be meso-focused. Finally, it presents some insights that highlight the heuristic potential of this approach in reappraising the territorial features of the digital economy.     

Reply to Frederic Lee's Comment on “The Citation Impact of Feminist Economics”

Abstract

This essay is a response to “A Comment on the Citation Impact of Feminist Economics,” by Frederic Lee, which appears in this issue ofFeminist Economics.

Frederic Lee's comment is a valuable addition to our understanding of the intellectual interactions between feminist economics and other schools of heterodox thought, and demonstrates how much can be learned by studying citation patterns.     

The “price puzzle” in the monetary transmission VARs with long-run restrictions

This study addresses the “price puzzle” — a positive response of prices to monetary tightening in VAR models. By using long-run instead of the usual short-run restrictions on the US data including output, prices and interest rate, we find that monetary tightening had a negative effect on prices.     

Modelling conditional heteroskedasticity: Application to the “IBEX-35” stock-return index

This paper compares alternative time-varying volatility models for daily stock-returns using data from Spanish equity index IBEX-35. Specifically, we estimate a parametric family of models of generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity (which nests the most popular symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models), a semiparametric GARCH model, the generalized quadratic ARCH model, the stochastic volatility model, the Poisson Jump Diffusion model and, finally, a nonparametric model. Those models which use conditional standard deviation (specifically, TGARCH and AGARCH models) produce better fits than all other GARCH models. We also compare the within sample predictive power of all models using a standard efficiency test. Our results show that the asymmetric behaviour of responses is a statistically significant characteristic of these data. Moreover, we observe that specifications with a distribution which allows for fatter tails than a normal distribution do not necessarily outperform specifications with a normal distribution.     

Lange's 1938 model: dynamics and the “optimum propensity to consume”

Abstract

Oskar Lange's 1938 article “The Rate of Interest and the Optimum Propensity to Consume” is usually associated with the original IS-LM approach of the late 1930s. However, Lange's article was not only an attempt to illuminate Keynes's main innovations but the first part of a wide project that included the development of a theory of economic evolution. This paper aims at showing that Lange's article can help in illuminating critical aspects of this project: in particular, Lange's idea that a synthesis between Kaldor's and Kalecki's theories and that of Schumpeter, might have been possible and that it represented (in intentions) a “modern” and consistent reconstruction of the Marxist theory of the business cycle. Section 2 clarifies Lange's early reflection on dynamics. Section 3 centres on Lange's 1938 static model and indicates the effects of a change of saving on investment. Section 4 suggests a dynamic reconstruction from which are addressed important arguments raised by Lange in a series of papers written between 1934 and 1942.