Scarcity, regulation and endogenous technical progress

This paper studies to which extent a firm using a scarce resource input and facing environmental regulation can still manage to have a sustainable growth of output and profits. The firm has a vintage capital technology with two complementary factors, capital and a resource input subject to quota, the latter being increasingly scarce through an exogenously rising price. The firm can scrap obsolete capital and invest in adoptive and/or innovative R&D resource-saving activities. Within this realistic framework, we first characterize long-term growth regimes driven by scarcity (induced-innovation) vs. long-term growth regimes driven by quota regulation (Porter-like innovation). More importantly, we study the interaction between scarcity and quota regulation. In particular, we show that there exists a threshold level for the growth rate of the resource price above which the Porter mechanism is killed while the scarcity-induced growth regime may emerge. Symmetrically, we also find that there must exist a threshold value for the environmental quota under which the growth regime induced by scarcity vanishes while the Porter-like growth regime may survive.     

An alternative to the weighted score card approach to measuring performance: An analysis of English and Welsh probation boards

The UK government published a weighted score card approach in 2003 to analyse the performance of Probation Boards in England and Wales. However, there has not been a thorough analysis of whether non-parametric methods could provide more advanced options for analysing performance than the standard Weighted Score Card approach – a variant of the Balanced Score Card. Our results show there is considerable divergence in the ranks of Probation Boards from that of the WSC when we include the input variable ‘resource expenditure’ within a DEA model, calling into question recent policy initiatives to increase efficiency in the national probation service.     

Revealed preference theory on the choice of lotteries

The choice behavior of a decision-maker is said to be consistent with expected utility maximization if there exists a utility function defined on the set of prizes such that the decision-maker chooses lotteries with the highest expected utility. We present a revealed preference characterization of choice behavior that is consistent with expected utility maximization. A necessary and sufficient condition for expected utility maximization is that there does not exist a way to compound lotteries such that the probability distribution over the final prizes generated by the chosen lotteries of each observation is equal to that generated by the rejected lotteries of each observation. Our result is quite general and can be applied to any compact set of prizes and any choice correspondence.     

Mexico’s balance of payments and exchange rates: a cointegration analysis

Mexico’s recurrent economic crises have cast serious doubts on the existence of a long-run relationship between the country’s balance-of-payments and exchange rates. In this paper, cointegration and vector autoregression techniques are applied to Mexico’s data covering the period 1971 through 1988. Despite the presence of nonstationarity, the statistical analysis supports a long-run relationship between changes in international reserves and the exchange rate and changes in domestic credit. Further multivariate Granger causality tests, together with innovation accounting, indicate that Mexico’s monetary authorities adjust domestic assets to sterilize balance-of-payments deficits in a futile attempt to control its monetary policy.     

The elasticity of derived demand, factor substitution, and product demand: Corrections to Hicks' formula and Marshall's Four Rules

The concept of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor, introduced by John Hicks and Joan Robinson over 75 years ago, has had important implications in labor economics and several areas of economic inquiry. In his The Theory of Wages (1932/1963), Hicks developed a formula that has proven very useful in relating the substitution elasticity to the derived demand for productive factors, the distribution of factor incomes, and Marshall's Four Rules. This short paper shows that the original and subsequent derivations of Hicks' celebrated formula contained a slip (that factor shares are independent of the substitution elasticity and therefore constant), presents a new derivation and a corrected formula, and demonstrates that, with the corrected formula, Marshall's First Rule based on the substitution elasticity is no longer generally valid.     

Brain drain and institutions of governance: Educational attainment of immigrants to the US 1988–1998

We investigate the impact of home country institutions on the skill level of immigrants to the United States over 1988–1998. Specifically, we explore the hypothesis that institutions are multidimensional and that the different dimensions have conflicting impacts on the migration of skilled labor. Using an exploratory factor analysis on fifteen institutional variables, we identify the following dimensions of institutional character: credibility, transparency, democracy, and the security of civil society. We find that credibility and transparency increase the magnitude of brain drain, security reduces it, and democracy has no significant impact.     

Market imperfections and firm-sponsored training

Using worker and firm data from Dutch manufacturing, our paper investigates how product market competition and labor market imperfections affect firm-sponsored training. We find that product market competition does not affect the firms' training expenditures. Increasing competition, for instance due to increased international integration and globalization, is not a threat to investments in on-the-job training. Instead, labor market imperfections influence firm-sponsored training. An increase in labor market flexibility significantly reduces the incentives of firms to invest in training. The magnitude of this effect is nevertheless small.     

Carbon Financial Instruments, thin trading, and volatility: Evidence from the Chicago Climate Exchange

We provide the first econometric investigation of volatility dynamics for the Carbon Financial Instrument (CFI) traded on the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX). A CFI is a financial contract with the right to emit 100 metric tons of CO₂ equivalent. In this study, we present evidence of infrequent trading in the CCX, consistent with emerging markets that are inhabited by non-competitive agents trading permits. We explore the relationship between the observed thin trading effects and GARCH model testing and estimation, concluding with some implications for volatility-based Value-at-Risk forecasts. Our results are important for traders of Carbon Financial Instruments and for policy makers seeking to improve the design of the Chicago Climate Exchange.     

Unemployment risk, house price risk and the transition into home ownership in the United Kingdom

Using household panel data, this paper examines the impact of income uncertainty, in the form of unemployment risk, on home ownership in the United Kingdom. The existing literature based on cross-sectional studies finds a negative relationship between income uncertainty and home ownership. This paper utilises data on transitions into home ownership and exogenous variation in unemployment risk, avoiding the endogeneity of employment to home ownership status. It also conditions the empirical estimates on a measure of house price volatility utilising a local-level house price index to control house price risk, which might also discourage home ownership. Results show a strong role for unemployment risk in lowering the likelihood of house purchase, but no statistically significant role for house price risk.     

Generic properties of the core and equilibria of pure exchange economies

We show that for an open dense set of markets with a continuum of traders the number of equilibrium allocations [which by the celebrated theorem of ^{Aumann (Econometrica. 1964, 32. 39–50)} coincide with the core allocations for such markets are finite. This presents a limiting case result that complements similar asymptotic theorems for cores of large economies proved by ^{Bewley (Econometrica 1973, 41, 425–454)}, and ^{Dierker (Journal of Mathematical Economics 1975, 2. 155–169)}. If we require that the measure on the space of agents be one with a finite number of atoms of equal weight, our reasoning recovers the classical results obtained by ^{Debreu (Econometrica. 1970. 38, 387–392)} for economies with a finite number of agents.     

Lattice structure of knowledge and agreeing to disagree

This paper is a contribution to the study of the underlying mathematical structure of common-knowledge, which gives the well-known result of Aumann about the impossibility of ‘agreeing to disagree’. We present the Bayesian subjective probability model with player's belief: i.e. a triple (? %plane1D;4AF;, μ), in which i is a player. ? is a lattice in the field of sets of a state space Ω, %plane1D;4AF;, is a correspondence assigning to each state ω a filter %plane1D;4AF;(ω) in ?, and μ is a common-prior. For this model, we impose none of the important restrictions on the information structure in the Aumann-Bacharach model: axiom of knowledge K₁. axiom of transparency K₂ and axiom of wisdom K₃. We can extend both the disagreement theorem of Aumann and the agreement theorem of Geanacoplos and Polemarchakis under the assumption that each ? is an Artinian lattice.     

Two-stage non Gaussian QML estimation of GARCH models and testing the efficiency of the Gaussian QMLE

In generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models, the standard identifiability assumption that the variance of the iid process is equal to 1 can be replaced by an alternative moment assumption. We show that, for estimating the original specification based on the standard identifiability assumption, efficiency gains can be expected from using a quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator based on a non Gaussian density and a reparameterization based on an alternative identifiability assumption. A test allowing to determine whether a reparameterization is needed, that is, whether the more efficient QMLE is obtained with a non Gaussian density, is proposed.     

Market access and the other determinants of North–South manufacturing location choice: An application to the Euro-Mediterranean area

This paper examines the impact of market and supply accessibility on the geographic distribution of manufacturing sectors in the Euro-Mediterranean area. The evolution of market and supplier access in the area is first investigated. Then, market and supplier access, production cost and regional integration are focused on as the main determinants of industrial location. A deeper regional integration agreements can act as an important dispersion force, driving the location of manufacturing in new member states and Mediterranean countries.     

Stability in consumer credit scores: Level and direction of FICO score drift as a precursor to mortgage default and prepayment

This article represents an extension of the expansive credit risk and credit migration literature, prominent in the corporate bond and securities risk pricing literature, to an analysis of the drift of consumer credit scores. A rich data set of residential mortgages is used to observe credit score migration post loan origination and in a test of the ability of credit score transition to serve as a precursor to potential default and prepayment. The results indicate credit scores provide signals and information to investors and servicing agents in a fashion similar to credit ratings on commercial paper as to default potential.     

A sight for sore eyes: Assessing the value of view and land use in the housing market

We apply a hedonic model to the Geneva–Switzerland rental market to assess the value of view from dwellings and of land uses around buildings. Using a geographic information system, we calculate three-dimensional view variables, accessibility and land use variables. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to develop precise view measures at the dwelling level, considering surrounding land uses, in an urban context and with a large sample of 13,000 observations. The results show that view of various environmental amenities and its size has a significant impact on rents. The estimated rent premium for a dwelling located in a neighbourhood with an extended surface of water can be as high as 3%, and a view of water-covered area can raise rent up to 57%.     

Measuring performance in the presence of stochastic demand for hospital services: an analysis of Belgian general care hospitals

Since demand for hospital services is subject to substantial variability, the relationship between uncertain demand, excess capacity, hospital costs and performance should be investigated thoroughly. In this paper a waiting time indicator to proxy hospital standby capacity is incorporated into a multi-product translog cost function for Belgian general care hospitals. The indicator is derived from queuing theory and improves on the conventionally used (inverse of the) occupancy rate. The multi-product stochastic frontier specification allows calculation of cost elasticities and marginal cost of seven hospital departments, as well as the degree of economies of scale and scope and enables identification of differences in efficiency.