货币政策对股票价格行为的影响实证分析

文章以影响股票价格的理论为基础,采用现代计量技术,采用2005年1月至2007年6月的月度时间序列数据,研究了汇率、存款准备金率以及利率、货币供应量等宏观经济因素对股票价格的影响。从2005年6月以来我国A股市场股票价格的持续上涨,其主要原因是经济的高速增长、人民币升值以及充足的货币供应量;而加息与提高存款准备金率对股票价格变化的影响有限。     

Transmission of Stock Prices and Volatility from the Influential Major Markets on the Emerging Market: A Case Study of the Korean Stock Market

Abstract

This study investigates how the 1997 crisis has changed the Korean market by focusing on price and volatility spillovers from the US, Chinese, and Japanese markets. Using the exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) model, new information on stock prices originating in the US market was transmitted to the Korean market for all periods. The price spillover effect from the Japanese market to the Korean market became stronger from the crisis period. Asymmetry in the spillover effect on market volatility was more pronounced in the Korean market after the financial crisis.     

Special Quotes Invoke Autocorrelation in Japanese Stock Prices*

It is reported in the present paper that 1‐min returns on TOPIX have exhibited significant autocorrelation at 5‐min intervals since 1997/1998. Special quotes that are issued whenever there is a price jump in excess of a predetermined band seem to be the source of this autocorrelation, because these have been automatically updated at 5‐min intervals since August 1998 and have appeared during the first 30 min from opening. Individual stock returns also exhibit fifth‐order autocorrelation, but this disappears when the data with special quotes are excluded from the sample. Therefore, the autocorrelation is caused by the special quotes: a type of market microstructure noise.     

Sectoral Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Malaysia

The present paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy shocks on aggregate and eight sectoral outputs for Malaysia using vector autoregressive models. In line with many existing studies on Malaysia, the results are supportive of the real effects of monetary policy shocks. More importantly, we find evidence suggesting sector-specific responses to innovations in monetary policy. In response to positive interest rate shocks, we note that the manufacturing, construction, finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors seem to decline more than aggregate production. By contrast, we observe the relative insensitivities of agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water to interest rate changes. The results, therefore, seem to confirm potential disparities in the effect of monetary policy on real sectoral activities.     

Dynamic Links Between Unexpected Exchange Rate Variation, Prices, and International Trade

This paper investigates dynamic interrelations between exchange rate uncertainty, international trade, and trading competitiveness in prices, using UK data. The empirical results derived from vector autoregressive (VAR) models show that a shock to exchange rate volatility negatively affects trade volumes, and such negative effects are greater than the effects on trade price levels. JEL Classification Numbers: F14, F31, F41     

从金融传导领域分析我国的货币政策传导机制

中央银行的货币政策引起实际经济变量的改变是通过货币政策传导机制实现的。而货币政策的传导机制包括金融传导领域和经济传导领域。其中金融传导是中央银行与金融中介相互影响和相互作用的过程。文章着重通过对金融传导领域中的执行主体、传导中介、市场基础和调节杠杆进行分析,来研究我国的货币政策传导机制。     

政策操作透明度下的货币政策传导机制研究

货币政策的有效性在很大程度上取决于货币政策传导机制的灵活畅通。通过增加货币政策的透明度,从而提高货币政策的可信性和有效性,成为当前各国中央银行关注的焦点。文章介绍了货币政策透明度的内涵,分析了增强货币政策透明度对提高货币政策传导机制的作用,并对改进我国货币政策透明度问题进行了探讨。     

财政政策与货币政策的动态搭配和组合模式

基于经济周期的不同阶段,从IS-LM曲线和供求理论的双重视角解析利用财政政策与货币政策对宏观经济进行调控的内在机理,揭示两类政策搭配组合的理论逻辑,分析制约财政政策与货币政策调控效应的现实因素。研究发现,财政政策与货币政策的搭配组合要根据经济发展的不同阶段进行动态供给,以满足经济周期不同阶段的需求,如此方能实现经济的稳定增长。现阶段,我国应采取"更加积极的财政政策与稳健适度的货币政策"这一政策组合。产品市场与货币市场对利率的弱敏感性使政策刺激经济的效果受到制约,因而两类政策不仅要在总量层面"对冲"经济增速减缓的压力,而且要在结构层面增强协调性。     

Low Inflation,Pass-through,and a Discrete Inflation-targeting Framework for Monetary Policy in China

The performance of inflation in China over the past few decades has been remarkable. This paper characterizes the statistical nature of the inflation series in China over the past quarter of a century and presents an interesting scenario of large decline in inflation pass-through accompanied with low inflation since the end of the 1990s. How should monetary policy in China be conducted under these new economic conditions? We propose a discrete inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy,which is likely to be suitable for the regime of low inflation and inflation pass-through. The advantages and caveats of adopting such a framework are also discussed.     

量化宽松、资本流动与国际间货币政策协调

主要利用美国国际收支(简称BOP)账户、资金流量表等统计数据探讨量化宽松与资本流动之间相互联系。分析表明,国际资本流动与量化宽松之间关系密切,量化宽松是资本流向EMEs的重要原因,反过来资本流动则影响了量化宽松的有效性,量化宽松和资本流动是引发全球货币汇率冲突的关键性因素。各国应通过国际协调促进宏观经济政策的生效和压制冲突,使全球经济得以更加平衡地复苏以压制冲突,而且发达国家应承担更大的调整责任。     

The Robustness of the Link between Volatility and Growth of Output

Recent research, using cross-sectional data, has found a negative relationship between volatility and growth of output. We examine the robustness of these findings to the choice of countries and time periods. The results indicate that the results are very sensitive to the choice of data. Therefore a cross-sectional time series technique is used to allow volatilities to adjust across time. This alternative methodology gives a robust negative relationship between the volatility and growth of output when the full sample of countries is used. However, the negative relationship is somewhat less robust when a sample of OECD countries is used. JEL no. F43, O40     

Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule

This paper estimates forward-looking and forecast-based Taylor rules for France, Germany, Italy, and the euro area. Performing extensive tests for over-identifying restrictions and instrument relevance, we find that asset prices can be highly relevant as instruments in policy rules. While asset prices improve Taylor rule estimates, different assets prove most relevant across countries and this result could be seen as complicating the tasks of the European Central Bank. Encompassing tests show that forecast-based outperform forward-looking Taylor rules. A policy implication is that central banks ought to release their own forecasts and the basis upon which they are generated.

The Information Content of the Yield Curve for Monetary Policy: A Survey

The information content of the yield curve with respect to future inflation as well as future real economic activity is discussed. Both theoretical arguments and the empirical validity of these arguments are reviewed. The empirics favouring the yield curve as leading indicator for inflation is not found to be entirely convincing. The curve possesses information content, but it is difficult to empirically discriminate between the effects on real interest rates and future inflation. The yield spread is a stable leading indicator for future real economic activity, but there are several theoretical interpretations of this (positive) relationship, depending on the nature of shocks hitting the economy and the behaviour of prices in the economy. The proper reaction of monetary policy could differ among these interpretations. All in all, care should be taken in using the yield curve as information variable for monetary policy.     

货币政策背景下房价的变动关系研究

本文在货币政策传导理论的基础上,通过向量误差修正模型(VECM)实证分析了房价在货币政策传导过程中的作用。通过分析可知,房价在货币政策传导过程中起到了一定的作用,房价渠道的传导效率整体而言比较高,由此而知货币政策和房价之间存在着一定程度的关系。     

Institutional Ownership and the Extent to which Stock Prices Reflect Future Earnings*

Articles in the financial press suggest that institutional investors are overly focused on current profitability, which suggests that as institutional ownership increases, stock prices reflect less current period information that is predictive of future period earnings. On the other hand, institutional investors are often characterized in academic research as sophisticated investors and sophisticated investors should be better able to use current‐period information to predict future earnings compared with other owners. According to this characterization, as institutional ownership increases, stock prices should reflect more current‐period information that is predictive of future period earnings. Consistent with this latter view, we find that the extent to which stock prices lead earnings is positively related to the percentage of institutional ownership. This result holds after controlling for various factors that affect the relation between price and earnings. It also holds when we control for endogenous portfolio choices of institutions (e.g., institutional investors may be attracted to firms in richer information environments where stock prices tend to lead earnings). Further, a regression of stock returns on order backlog, conditional on the percentage of institutional ownership, indicates that institutional owners place more weight on order backlog compared with other owners. This result is consistent with institutional owners using non‐earnings information to predict future earnings. It also explains, in part, why prices lead earnings to a greater extent when there is a higher concentration of institutional owners.     

Designing Fiscal Institutions in a Monetary Union

This article explores the policy and wealth consequences of alternative institutional arrangements through which fiscal policy interacts with monetary policy in a monetary union such as the EMU. The central issue of the article is the design of the appropriate monetary and fiscal institutions through a comparison of alternative arrangements to distribute power over monetary and fiscal authorities between the central authority of the union and the individual members of the union and evaluating their performance. The main results of this article reveal that delegation of the fiscal policy to a council of country representatives and the monetary policy to a council of governors is the appropriate institutional design to reduce inflation bias and better stabilize regional, idiosyncratic supply and demand shocks in a monetary union.     

关于利率政策与货币政策效力关系的一点思考与探索

利率政策会影响一国货币政策的制定和实施,尤其在开放经济条件下,利率效应在国际间存在传递,加剧了央行制定货币政策的难度。货币政策效力趋于减弱甚至无效。本文从消费、投资两个方面分析了我国利率政策效率低下,货币政策效力不大。在此基础上,提出了如何改善利率政策,进而提高货币政策效力。     

Price Rigidity and the Selection of the Exchange Rate Regime

We evaluate and qualify Friedman's, 1953, “case for flexible exchange rates” in the presence of sticky prices in a two country model. We find that a flexible regime performs indeed better when the degree of nominal price rigidity is high while a bilateral peg does better when prices are fairly flexible. This result obtains independent of whether monetary policy is activistic or not and is mostly due to the negative relationship between employment and productivity shocks when prices are relatively sluggish (Gali, 1999). A unilateral peg tends to produce the lowest level of world welfare but it sometimes represents the best monetary arrangement for the pegger. JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E52, F33, F42     

金融税制与货币政策效应

金融税制是一国管理金融活动的有关税收的法律法规的总和。金融税制影响金融市场效率和各类金融活动主体的行为,通过利率传导机制和信贷配给传导机制对货币政策效应产生影响。为保证货币政策能顺利传导,我国目前应进一步完善针对金融市场的流转税和所得税制度,对商业银行不宜取消现行的营业税或急剧降低营业税税率,应针对不同业务细化和完善相关的流转税制度。