未预期货币政策冲击与股票价格

货币政策影响股票价格的理论机制清晰确凿,实证检验的主要挑战是资本市场对货币政策冲击可能存在事先预期。基于货币政策公告后的国债收益率变动,文章识别了未被市场充分预期的货币政策冲击,并实证考察了 2000 年以来历次法定存款准备金率调整和贷款基准利率调整,发现未预期货币政策冲击对股票市场价格产生显著影响,1% 的未预期“降准”会引起上证指数和深证综指上涨 1.39% 和 1.415%,1% 的未预期“降息”会引起上证指数和深证综指上涨 0.662% 和 1.01%。     

House Prices and the Stance of Monetary Policy: The Case of Korea

Abstract

This paper is an empirical investigation on whether the Bank of Korea should respond to the housing price developments in conducting monetary policy. For that aim, we construct a small scale empirical model of the Korean economy, simulate the estimated model with a set of alternative monetary policy rules, and compare the stabilization performances of those rules. There turns out to be ample room for further stabilization of inflation and output, if the central bank shifts from the historically conducted monetary policy rule to the optimal rule. The stabilization gains under the optimal rule, however, are not attributable to additional policy indicators (such as housing price inflation) the optimal rule involves. Rather, the optimal rule improves upon the historical one because the former takes a quite different reaction scheme toward the historical policy indicators. Moreover, as long as the Bank of Korea maintains appropriate reactions to the historical policy indicators, housing price inflation does not contain much extra information for further stabilization     

货币政策对股票价格行为的影响实证分析

文章以影响股票价格的理论为基础,采用现代计量技术,采用2005年1月至2007年6月的月度时间序列数据,研究了汇率、存款准备金率以及利率、货币供应量等宏观经济因素对股票价格的影响。从2005年6月以来我国A股市场股票价格的持续上涨,其主要原因是经济的高速增长、人民币升值以及充足的货币供应量;而加息与提高存款准备金率对股票价格变化的影响有限。     

货币政策调控房价问题研究

我国房价的持续上涨问题倍受社会各界的普遍关注,本文阐述了我国货币政策调控房价的主要途径,对货币政策调控房价效果有限的原因进行深入剖析,并在此基础上提出了提高我国货币政策调控房价有效性的政策建议。     

Transmission of Stock Prices and Volatility from the Influential Major Markets on the Emerging Market: A Case Study of the Korean Stock Market

Abstract

This study investigates how the 1997 crisis has changed the Korean market by focusing on price and volatility spillovers from the US, Chinese, and Japanese markets. Using the exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) model, new information on stock prices originating in the US market was transmitted to the Korean market for all periods. The price spillover effect from the Japanese market to the Korean market became stronger from the crisis period. Asymmetry in the spillover effect on market volatility was more pronounced in the Korean market after the financial crisis.     

Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in China

This paper uses a stochastic volatility model structural break tests with unknown point, and a counterfactual simulation method to discuss the significant decline in inflation uncertainty in China over 1978-2009. We attempt to quantify the contributions of better monetary policy and smaller structural shocks （including demand, supply and policy impacts） on the reduced inflation uncertainty. Empirical results in the present paper suggest that improved monetary policy accounts for only a small fraction of the reduction in inflation uncertainty from the pre-1997 period to the post-1997 period in China. The bulk of the significant moderation in inflation uncertainty arises from smaller shocks. This finding indicates that the quiescence of inflation in China over the past decade could well be followed by a return to a more turbulent inflation era. Therefore, the use of preemptive monetary policy to anchor inflationary expectations and keep moderate inflation uncertainty is warranted.     

资产价格在货币政策传导中的作用

文章对资产价格在货币政策传导中的作用进行实证研究，结果表明，我国同时存在着从中央银行到资产价格的高效传导和从资产价格到实体经济的低效传导，资产价格的波动损害了货币政策的传导效率以及金融体系的稳定性。在这种情况下，我国中央银行不应把资产价格纳入货币政策的最终目标，而应适时和适度地对资产价格作出反应。     

Special Quotes Invoke Autocorrelation in Japanese Stock Prices*

It is reported in the present paper that 1‐min returns on TOPIX have exhibited significant autocorrelation at 5‐min intervals since 1997/1998. Special quotes that are issued whenever there is a price jump in excess of a predetermined band seem to be the source of this autocorrelation, because these have been automatically updated at 5‐min intervals since August 1998 and have appeared during the first 30 min from opening. Individual stock returns also exhibit fifth‐order autocorrelation, but this disappears when the data with special quotes are excluded from the sample. Therefore, the autocorrelation is caused by the special quotes: a type of market microstructure noise.     

对中国股票市场货币传导效率的实证分析

文章从理论上阐释了财富效应形成机理及其股市货币政策传导机制,然后选择上证综合指数和社会消费总额数据为变量,运用格兰杰检验分析我国股票市场的发展是否有助于刺激居民消费和企业投资,是否有利于货币传导效率。研究发现,我国股市不具备财富效应,货币传导机制还不能从股市     

人民币汇率机制改革对我国货币政策有效性的影响

随着人民币汇率形成机制改革的深入,汇率转型期间及后转型期货币政策效力的变化引起了更多的关注。本文采用SWOT分析,对管理浮动汇率制下货币政策操作做了综合评价,从而整体研判汇率机制改革对货币政策的影响。并进一步建立了开放条件下宏观经济模型,以新古典主义范式为基准,通过引入通货膨胀粘性等参量,将其拓展为新凯恩斯主义范式,具体探讨了存在汇率杠杆影响下的最优货币政策框架制定,最后运用情景分析和SWOT矩阵提出战略选择建议。     

Sectoral Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Malaysia

The present paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy shocks on aggregate and eight sectoral outputs for Malaysia using vector autoregressive models. In line with many existing studies on Malaysia, the results are supportive of the real effects of monetary policy shocks. More importantly, we find evidence suggesting sector-specific responses to innovations in monetary policy. In response to positive interest rate shocks, we note that the manufacturing, construction, finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors seem to decline more than aggregate production. By contrast, we observe the relative insensitivities of agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water to interest rate changes. The results, therefore, seem to confirm potential disparities in the effect of monetary policy on real sectoral activities.     

Dynamic Links Between Unexpected Exchange Rate Variation, Prices, and International Trade

This paper investigates dynamic interrelations between exchange rate uncertainty, international trade, and trading competitiveness in prices, using UK data. The empirical results derived from vector autoregressive (VAR) models show that a shock to exchange rate volatility negatively affects trade volumes, and such negative effects are greater than the effects on trade price levels. JEL Classification Numbers: F14, F31, F41     

我国股票市场流动性与股价的动态关系研究

关于股票市场中流动性与股价之间的关系,学术界一直存在争议,传统模型往往只能片面地反映。文章利用状态空间模型以及沪深300指数与中证500指数的数据,对我国股票市场流动性和股价之间的动态关系进行了深入研究。实证结果表明:第一,我国股票市场流动性对股价存在影响,在代表大市值企业的沪深300市场中,两者为正向关系且波动幅度较小;在代表小市值企业的中证500市场中,两者为负向关系且波动幅度较大。第二,在两个市场中股价对股票市场流动性都存在正向的影响关系,且以中证500指数为代表的小盘股市场表现更为明显。     

Global Spillovers of China's Monetary Policy

Spillovers from China's monetary policy have become increasingly obvious with China's growing importance in the global economy and its close economic and trade ties with the world. This study establishes a proxy structure vector autoregression model to investigate the magnitude and transmission channel of spillovers from China to global and regional economies, taking advantage of high-frequency changes in asset prices in the financial markets to identify monetary policy shocks. The analysis reveals that China's monetary policy can affect the global economy by influencing international trade and commodity prices but there is no evidence of China's monetary policy affecting global financial variables. Tightness in China's monetary policy can cause a decline in world output whereas expansion in monetary policy can support global trade and output. This study also finds that the response of emerging Asian economies to China's monetary policy shock was nearly twice that of developed economies, while the transmission path did not change. The results of this study are consistent with the stylized fact that China's monetary policy plays an important role in the global trade and commodity cycle, although it does not drive the global financial cycle.     

Openness to Trade and the Potency of Monetary Policy: How Strong is the Relationship?

Economic theory suggests that an economy's openness to international trade reduces the ability of monetary policy to affect output. Using quarterly data from the 1960:1–1993:4 period for a set of eight countries (Australia, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Africa, the U.K., and the U.S.A.), this article's empirical results support this theoretical prediction: the more open the economy, the smaller the output effects of a given change in the money supply. This finding, robust across all the different specifications and estimation methods examined, has straightforward implications for stabilization policy. Moreover, it suggests that an economy's net benefit from joining a monetary union is increasing with the economy's openness to foreign trade.     

Stock Market's Response to Real Output Shocks in China: A VARwAL Estimation

This paper studies the connection between the stock market and real output in China and compares it with benchmark countries, employing a novel vector autoregression with asymmetric leads (VARwAL) model. It makes two contributions. First, it finds that the time profile of the Chinese stock market's response to real output shocks suggests no evidence of a distorted relationship due to manipulation of Chinese real output data or domination of the Chinese stock market by individual investors. Rather, the Chinese stock market is relatively more responsive to real output, in line with the larger share of manufacturing in the Chinese economy. Electricity output and industrial profits, two different, less-manipulable time series, yield similar results. Second, it presents the first use of VARwAL impulse responses to detect stock market bubbles: VARwAL captures the 2015 bubble in China successfully. Over the full sample period, China's stock market appears to have been less prone to bubbles than the US stock market.     

从金融传导领域分析我国的货币政策传导机制

中央银行的货币政策引起实际经济变量的改变是通过货币政策传导机制实现的。而货币政策的传导机制包括金融传导领域和经济传导领域。其中金融传导是中央银行与金融中介相互影响和相互作用的过程。文章着重通过对金融传导领域中的执行主体、传导中介、市场基础和调节杠杆进行分析,来研究我国的货币政策传导机制。     

Examining Stock Volatility in the Segmented Chinese Stock Markets: A SWARCH Approach

Abstract

This study adopts the SWARCH model to examine the volatile behavior and volatility linkages among the four major segmented Chinese stock indices. We find strong evidence of a regime shift in the volatility of the four markets, and the SWARCH model appears to outperform standard generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family models. The evidence suggests that, compared with the A-share markets, B-share markets stay in a high-volatility state longer and are more volatile and shift more frequently between high- and low-volatility states. In addition, the relative magnitude of the high-volatility compared with that of the low-volatility state in the B-share markets is much greater than the case in the two A-share markets. B-share markets are found to be more sensitive to international shocks, while A-share markets seem immune to international spillovers of volatility. Finally, analyses of the volatility spillover effect among the four stock markets indicate that the A-share markets play a dominant role in volatility in Chinese stock markets.     

Financial Development,Financial Structure,and the Growth Effect of Monetary Policy: International Evidence

This paper investigates how financial development and financial structure affect the growth effect of monetary policy using panel data from 49 countries over the period 1980–2014. We find robust evidence that financial development has a significantly negative impact on the growth effect of monetary policy. We also find that the growth effect of monetary policy tends to be more pronounced as the financial structure of a country becomes more market-based. These results not only add interesting new evidence to the recent literature on the growth effects of monetary policy, but also provide some important insights into the financial determinants of monetary policy effects on economic growth, which have largely been ignored in the previous literature.     

政策操作透明度下的货币政策传导机制研究

货币政策的有效性在很大程度上取决于货币政策传导机制的灵活畅通。通过增加货币政策的透明度,从而提高货币政策的可信性和有效性,成为当前各国中央银行关注的焦点。文章介绍了货币政策透明度的内涵,分析了增强货币政策透明度对提高货币政策传导机制的作用,并对改进我国货币政策透明度问题进行了探讨。