金融风暴中道德风险对多重均衡移动的影响和补救

金融风暴中道德风险对多重均衡移动的影响进行了分析,重点提出了补救的措施,采用存款保险的方式,最后对补救的效果进行了评价,研究成果对于政府决策,制定监管政策都有定性的意义.     

货币替代下的货币危机模型分析

货币替代特指外币替代本币执行交易媒介和价值储藏职能的情形。货币替代会影响一国居民对本国货币的需求。运用效用最大化原则可以导出在货币替代条件下的卡甘式货币需求模型。将它与第一代国际收支型的货币危机模型相结合 ,在货币替代条件下 ,分析引起国际收支型货币危机发生的因素以及发生的时间 ,可以看到即使财政赤字尚处于一般情况下的安全区域 ,由于货币替代对货币需求的作用 ,货币危机发生的时间也会提前 ,使得固定汇率制崩溃。     

对第三代货币危机模型的思考与启示

本文主要研究了第三代货币危机,从危机发生的背景、原因入手,介绍了目前为止最权威的三种研究分支。这三种研究分支主要从三个方面解读,分别为:道德层面、流动性层面和企业多重均衡层面。并针对危机发生机制,针对中国当今实际情况,思考当今中国应采取何种措施避免货币危机再次席卷而来。     

金融市场风险测量的VaR方法及其应用

近年来 ,金融市场的波动性增加 ,金融机构需要准确的测量其市场风险。对市场风险的正确测量构成了市场风险管理的基础。在介绍广泛应用于测量市场风险的VaR的实质、计算方法及发展方向的基础上 ,探讨其在我国金融市场风险管理中的应用     

我国货币、外汇与资本市场的均衡模型研究

货币市场，外汇市场一资本市场是金融市场的重要组成部分。通过戈登模型，利率平价公式，汇率与股指之间关系来研究货币，外汇与酱 市场的均衡问题，我国应重视货币市场的完善与发展，优先实行人民币汇率市场化，建立运作，调控与管理三权分离的金融市场治理结构。     

基于VaR的供应链金融操作风险度量研究

供应链金融的风险包括市场风险、信用风险和操作风险等,但是对操作风险一直以来缺乏应有的关注。本文在介绍VaR及其在操作风险领域应用现状的基础上,分析了供应链金融中操作风险的存在形式,同时借鉴国内外学者的研究成果,构建了一个计算供应链金融操作风险VaR值的模型,可供银行据此配置合理的资本。     

我国货币、外汇与资本市场的均衡模型研究

货币市场、外汇市场与资本市场是金融市场的重要组成部分。通过戈登模型、利率平价公式、汇率与股指之间的关系来研究货币、外汇与资本市场的均衡问题,我国应重视货币市场的完善与发展,优先实行人民币汇率市场化,建立运作、调控与管理三权分离的金融市场治理结构。     

信息不对称与货币危机传染模型

由于信息不对称所引致的逆向选择和道德风险 ,是金融风险日趋增强的深层原因。适用博弈论中信息不对称理论来分析 ,讨论货币危机的传染模型 ,当一国发生货币危机时 ,有可能引发多国乃至世界范围内的金融危机。因此 ,各国应通过宏观政策限制国际资本流动 ,严格资本管制 ,进行国际资本流动限制的国际协调。     

全球央行数字货币、金融脱媒与银行挤兑

文章在回顾全球央行数字货币(CBDC)设计特性并对资产负债表进行分析的基础上,构建一般均衡模型研究CBDC发行对金融脱媒和银行挤兑的影响机制。结果显示：第一,发行CBDC可能产生金融脱媒效应,但若央行对商业银行资金流失进行补偿,则可缓解该效应。补偿比例越大,金融脱媒效应越小;完全补偿时不产生金融脱媒效应。第二,在央行补偿条件下发行CBDC,银行挤兑发生门槛提升、概率下降。补偿比例越大,银行挤兑发生概率越小。第三,在央行全额补偿条件下发行CBDC,外部冲击对于总产出和商业银行资金来源稳定性的负向影响减小,发行CBDC促进了金融稳定。因此,文章建议逐渐放松CBDC发行限制,建立CBDC发行专项补偿机制,适度引入降低CBDC流动性的措施。     

一个存在信贷约束的货币危机模型的评述

本文通过介绍一个信贷约束下联系汇率与产出的货币危机模型，从资产负债说的角度研究了货币危机发生的机制和条件。这个第三代货币危机模型可以解释第一代货币危机和第二代货币危机。文章从分析的角度，分析的原因及政策建议三方面与第一代货币危机模型和第二代货币危机模型进行了比较。该模型强调了生产部门资产负债的失衡是危机产生的重要条件：指出危机在固定和浮动汇率制下部可发生；指出在满足一定条件下货币危机后才能实行紧缩的货币政策。     

FORECASTING VOLATILITY WITH THE MULTIFRACTAL RANDOM WALK MODEL

We study the problem of forecasting volatility for the multifractal random walk model. In order to avoid the ill‐posed problem of estimating the correlation length T of the model, we introduce a limiting object defined in a quotient space; formally, this object is an infinite range log volatility. For this object and the nonlimiting object, we obtain precise prediction formulas and we apply them to the problem of forecasting volatility and pricing options with the MRW model in the absence of a reliable estimate of σ and T.     

A MODEL FOR LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT IN A POST‐SOVIET CENTRAL ASIAN TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY

The research presented explores the logistics management of European and North American manufacturing companies operating in the unique environment of the post‐Soviet Central Asian transitional economy of Kazakhstan. Combining three alternating phases of quantitative and qualitative analysis, the research identifies the challenges logistics managers face in their efforts to distribute their companies' products into and within Kazakhstan. Then, using cross‐case analysis on a series of eleven case studies of European and North American manufacturing companies operating in Kazakhstan, the article concludes with a grounded theoretical model of logistics management for European and North American companies in Kazakhstan. The model highlights the unexpectedly divergent paths taken by companies from two different industry categories.     

THE DOTHAN PRICING MODEL REVISITED

We compute zero‐coupon bond prices in the Dothan model by solving the associated PDE using integral representations of heat kernels and Hartman–Watson distributions. We obtain several integral formulas for the price P(t, T) at time t > 0 of a bond with maturity T > 0 that complete those of the original paper of Dothan, which are shown not to always satisfy the boundary condition P(T, T) = 1 .     

THE 4/2 STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL: A UNIFIED APPROACH FOR THE HESTON AND THE 3/2 MODEL

We introduce a new stochastic volatility model that includes, as special instances, the Heston (1993) and the 3/2 model of Heston (1997) and Platen (1997). Our model exhibits important features: first, instantaneous volatility can be uniformly bounded away from zero, and second, our model is mathematically and computationally tractable, thereby enabling an efficient pricing procedure. This called for using the Lie symmetries theory for partial differential equations; doing so allowed us to extend known results on Bessel processes. Finally, we provide an exact simulation scheme for the model, which is useful for numerical applications.     

ASYMPTOTIC INFERENCE FOR THE PARAMETERS OF A DISCRETE-TIME SQUARE-ROOT PROCESS

This paper is concerned with asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators for the discrete-time square-root process. This process and its generalizations are employed in financial literature as models for movements of asset prices. the considered process is nonergodic and therefore standard maximum likelihood theory does not apply. the nonstandard asymptotic theory is developed. Strong consistency of the estimators is established, joint asymptotic distribution of the properly normalized estimators is obtained and confidence intervals for the parameters are constructed. the results of the small simulation study are reported.     

OVERLAPPING SETS OF PRIORS AND THE EXISTENCE OF EFFICIENT ALLOCATIONS AND EQUILIBRIA FOR RISK MEASURES

The overlapping expectations and the collective absence of arbitrage conditions introduced in the economic literature to insure existence of Pareto optima and equilibria with short‐selling when investors have a single belief about future returns, is reconsidered. Investors use measures of risk. The overlapping sets of priors and the Pareto equilibrium conditions introduced by Heath and Ku for coherent risk measures are respectively reinterpreted as a weak no‐arbitrage and a weak collective absence of arbitrage conditions and shown to imply existence of Pareto optima and Arrow–Debreu equilibria.     

AN EXACT FORMULA FOR DEFAULT SWAPTIONS’ PRICING IN THE SSRJD STOCHASTIC INTENSITY MODEL

We develop and test a fast and accurate semi‐analytical formula for single‐name default swaptions in the context of a shifted square root jump diffusion (SSRJD) default intensity model. The model can be calibrated to the CDS term structure and a few default swaptions, to price and hedge other credit derivatives consistently. We show with numerical experiments that the model implies plausible volatility smiles.     

A PRACTITIONER'S DECISION MODEL FOR THE TOTAL COST OF OUTSOURCING AND APPLICATION TO CHINA,MEXICO, AND THE UNITED STATES

Outsourcing of manufacturing to Mexico and China includes costs that are not always considered and benefits that are not always correctly quantified. An analytical model for determining outsourcing costs was developed and results from that model are presented. Using that model, the sensitivity of outsourcing costs to several variables was modeled and analyzed. Guidance is provided regarding factors to consider in an outsourcing decision.