Fiscal crisis and fiscal reform in developing countries

In recent years, policy-makers in developing countries haveresponded to crisis of macroeconomic instability with two setsof measures: conventional stabilisation policies and policiesof economic liberalisation. The fiscal implications of thisdouble agenda are set out, following three lines of enquiry.First, how can policies be kept consistent, when some liberalisationmeasures have large adverse fiscal consequences? Second, cana fiscal deficit be reduced without damaging the provision ofpublic services vital for growth and poverty alleviation? Finally,since lack of tax revenue is usually the binding constrainton government intervention, how can this most easily be relaxed?     

全球金融危机反思与我国金融体制改革深化

始于美国次贷危机的本次全球金融危机,在使得主要国家金融体系遭受重创的同时,也揭示出发达国家金融体制的某些缺陷和未来改革趋向.在反思全球金融危机的成因,以及各国采取的应对金融危机措施的基础上,从体制、政策等多方面提出了深化我国金融体制改革的思考和建议,旨在为拓宽我国金融体制改革的思路提供参考,建立符合科学发展观的金融体制.     

Economics of the crisis and the crisis of economics

Abstract

The macroeconomic instability revealed in the recent deep recession steams from the condition of balance sheets. Generally high leverage and strained maturity mismatches build up slowly but generate a financial structure so brittle that the impulse that eventually sends it crashing is hard to identify. The US financial system had been rendered more vulnerable by the financial reforms that swept away the Glass-Steagall regulations. The crisis made the inadquancies of the ruling macroeconomic paradigm painfully obvious. DSGE models generally did not include a financial sector and did not take the possibility of dramatic instability seriously. Unanticipated violations of budget constraints do not fit easily into general equilibrium models.     

Theoretical problems of demographic policy in the USSR

The recent emphasis in the USSR on long-range economic and social planning, as well as the country's current demographic situation, necessitates the adoption of demographic policies to create the type of population reproduction which is in the longterm interest of the society. Socioeconomic policies may have bothnegative and positive effects on demographic processes, and these effects may be delayed for 25 years or more. In the past, when economic and social plans covered only 5-year periods, the impact of these plans on demographic factors could be ignored. In longterm planning these consequences cannot be ignored. Population policies must address the longterm consequences of socioeconomic development, the regional variations in population parameters, and the complexities of the relationship between demographic and socioeconomic factors. As socialist societies evolve they eventually reach a stage where it is necessary to develop a theory and a methodolgy for managing demographic processes. The development of appropriate demographic goals and policies will require the cooperation of not only demographers, but of medical professionals, sociologists, and economists. The initial tasks of a goal oriented population program should be to stabilize the birth rate, to prevent further declines in fertility rates, to increase life expectancy to its biological limits, to reduce death rates, to equalize regional living standards, to control immigration, and to improve resettlement programs. Eventually policymakers must address the problem of developing an optimal and uniform level of reproduction for the nation as a whole. An organization structure, both at the national and regional level for developing and implementing the population program must be specified. Regional programs must be coordinated at the national level and developed in accordance with national goals.     

Education,labor-force participation,and fertility in the USSR

The effect of education on Soviet fertility and female labor participation is analyzed in terms of the neoclassical theory of the household. The hypotheses are tested by multivariate analysis of Soviet census data. The main findings are that the effect of education on urban fertility is opposite that in the West; in the USSR female education has a predominantly positive effect and male education a negative effect. Rural fertility is dominated by strong interaction between male and female education. A substantial portion of the total effect of education on fertility operates indirectly, through female labor participation. The results imply a backward-bending female labor-supply curve.     

Labor resources and the current economic development of the USSR

The key task in creating balanced employment in the Soviet Union at the present time involves reducing the number of jobs to a level that corresponds to the actual potential for filling them. Such a step will serve as the basis for a more systematic organization of all aspects of the socialist expanded reproduction of labor power and of general social and economic progress. In the future, however, the mass release of workers from material production as a result of the scientific-technological revolution may create a manpower surplus. The labor shortage should be eliminated by the year 2000, and the working age population will have expanded, requiring expanded employment opportunities. The socialist system of employment must guarantee the systematic employment of the able-bodied population at any qualitative level of social production. The experience of other European socialist countries suggests several guidelines for employment policy. Bringing payroll costs closer to the actual cost of reproduction of labor power can be an important factor in the saving and release of workers in conjunction with the technical and organizational improvement of production. A special system must be formed in advance for the retraining, material support, and redistribution of released workers. Finally, cadres must by psychologically prepared for a much higher level of labor mobility.     

Productivity and the crisis of Fordism

The paper examines the claim by the regulation school of French economists that the slackening of productivity growth in the advanced capitalist countries reflects the erosion of the ‘Fordist’ system of production. Productivity trends are analysed for the biggest six OECD countries for the period prior to the 1974 oil shock. There are definite indicators of slackening productivity growth, either for labour productivity or for the output-capital ratio, for most of the countries examined. But a disaggregated analysis, and assessment of the relative productivity levels in the countries concerned, does not support the idea that a whole system of technologies and work organization was reaching inherent limits. It is suggested, rather, that the productivity problems reflected the power of the boom of the 1950s and 1960s in eroding the reserves of surplus labour and increasing workers' organizational strength.     

Debt crisis,accumulation crisis and economic restructuring in Latin America

The policy debate over the Latin American debt crisis has shifted from the issue of short-term adjustment to that of long-term restructuring. The history of import substituting industrialization (IS) is reviewed in order to establish a context for the current restructuring debates. We argue that the demise of the IS model was primarily due to narrow domestic markets, heavy imports of capital goods and excessive ties with foreign multinationals, not to inefficiencies inherent in market-constraining policies. From this perspective, free market, export-led growth policies are opposed as an appropriate restructuring strategy and policies of redistribution, regional integration and major debt concessions are supported.     

Productivity and misallocation during a crisis: Evidence from the Chilean crisis of 1982

Measured total factor productivity often declines sharply during financial crises. In 1982, the Chilean manufacturing sector suffered a severe contraction in output, most of which can be accounted for by a falling Solow residual. This paper uses establishment data from the Chilean manufacturing census to examine the decline in measured TFP. To quantify the contribution of resource misallocation, I develop a measure of allocational efficiency along the lines of Hsieh and Klenow (2009) and derive the appropriate measure of aggregate productivity to which it should be compared. Across specifications, within-industry allocational efficiency either remained constant or improved in 1982, while a decline in between-industry allocational efficiency accounts for about one-third of the reduction in TFP. Industries more sensitive to domestic demand – durables and industries with low exports – experienced larger declines in measured TFP. This finding is consistent with large adjustment costs and underutilization of inputs. Reduced capital utilization played a substantial role, accounting for 25–50 percent of the decline in measured TFP.