中印制成品产业内贸易分析

本文通过对中印制成品产业内贸易的分析发现,首先,从静态的产业内贸易水平的考察来看,中印制成品主要是以产业间贸易的模式为主。其次,从动态产业内贸易水平的考察来看,中印的贸易增长主要是以产业间贸易为主要特征的。另外值得一提的是,对于边际产业内贸易指数不能纠正贸易不平衡性的问题也需要进一步的研究,以便找到更能真实反映边际产业内贸易的指标体系。     

On the measurement of trade-induced adjustment

Globalisation and closer regional integration have led to significant increases in trade between nations that in turn impacts on existing long-standing trade partnerships. A consequence of changing trade patterns is an increase in the pressure for resources to reallocate between industries and sectors. This paper provides an integrated approach to the analysis of trade-induced adjustment that complements the existing literature. Adjustment pressures are documented in accordance with the theoretical underpinnings of the smooth adjustment hypothesis and satisfy a number of desirable criteria, monotonicity, consistency and country specificity. The applicability of the authors' approach is examined using UK manufacturing data. JEL no. F19     

Economic openness and trade linkages of China: An empirical study of the determinants of chinese trade intensities from 1993 to 1999

In the 1980s, the Chinese regime took a number of piecemeal steps toward economic liberalization. This process accelerated impressively in the 1990s. This paper reports an empirical study into the determinants of the emerging pattern of Chinese trade (export and import) intensities in the liberalization decade by exploring international trade statistics for 1993 and 1999. Four models are estimated that explain the shifts in the export and import intensities of the trade with different trade partners in the 1993–1999 period. The estimation results reveal differences for export vis-à-vis import trade intentities, as well as for 1993 compared to 1999. For example, the political determinants of trade intensities that were still very important in 1993 have been moved to the background by economic explanations in 1999. JEL no. F14     

On the measurement of intra-industry trade: Some further thoughts

Zusammenfassung Zur Messung des intra-industriellen Handels. Einige weitere Gedanken. — Der Autor untersucht, was für und was gegen das Argument des Korrekturbedarfs bei der Messung des intra-industriellen Handels (IIH) spricht, und kommt zu dem Ergebnis, da\ eine Korrektur sowohl aus theoretischen als auch aus empirischen Gründen abzulehnen ist. Der unkorrigierte Index von Grubel und Lloyd hat sich als der beste der gegenw?rtig verfügbaren Indizes erwiesen, wenn er auch ziemlich stark auf das Ausma\ der Datendisaggregierung reagiert. Empirische Studien scheinen darauf hinzudeuten, da\ die Ebene der 4- bis 5-stelligen SITC am besten geeignet ist, um den IIH zu messen. Selbst an Hand dieser stark disaggregierten Daten ist der auf bilateraler Basis berechnete IIH sehr beachtlich, besonders wenn er mit dem hier vorgeschlagenen neuen Index gemessen wird. Dieser Index wird aus theoretischen überlegungen abgeleitet und ist nicht mit dem überlappen des Handels verknüpft.

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Résumé Des mésures du commerce intra-branche: Quelques réflexions supplémentaires. — Dans cette étude l’auteur examine les points positifs et négatifs de l’argument d'une ?nécessité de la correction? en mesurant le commerce intra-branche. Il conclue que la nécessité devrait être rejetée à cause de la théorie et l’évidence empirique. On trouve que l’indicateur de Grubel et de Lloyd est le meilleur de ceux qui sont au moment disponibles. Il réagit néanmoins de mesure considérable au niveau de la disagrégation des données. L’évidence empirique semble montrer que le niveau de 4 ou 5 chiffres CTCI est le plus adéquat pour mesurer le commerce intra-branche. Même avec ces données très hautement disagrégées le commerce intra-branche est tout considérable, particulièrement si mesuré par le nouvel indicateur du commerce intra-branche qui est proposé ici. Cet indicateur est dérivé des considérations théoriques et n'est pas lié aux échanges croisés.

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Resurnen Sobre la medición del comercio intrasectorial: algunas ideas más. — En este trabajo se examinan las ventajas y desventajas del argumente de la necesidad de corrección al medir el comercio intrasectorial y se concluye que deberia ser rechazado en base a razones teóricas y empiricas. El indice no corregido de Grubel y Lloyd es el mejor de los indices existentes; sin embargo, es sensible al nivel de desagregacón. La evidencia empírica parece indicar que el nivel de 4 a S digitos de la SITC es el nivel más apropiado para medir el comercio intrasectorial. Incluso medido a este nivel altamente desagregado, el comercio intrasectorial computado bilateralmente résulta bastante importante, especialmente si es medido con el nuevo indice propuesto aqui. Este indice es derivado de consideraciones teóricas y no esta ligado a la superposition del comertio.

     

基于产业内贸易的浙江高新技术产品国际竞争力研究

进入21世纪以来,浙江省高新技术产品对外贸易迅速发展,对浙江经济发展和结构优化起到较大的推动作用。但浙江省高新技术产品发展仍然处于较低的层次,在参与国际分工过程中竞争力不强,贸易竞争力指数和产业内贸易指数较低,亟需推进结构优化,增强创新意识,优化人才机制,提高产品科技含量,加大高新技术产品的差异化程度。     

On the Measurement of Changes in Product Quality in Marginal Intra-Industry Trade

There is a long established thread of the international trade literature concerned with the measurement of intra-industry trade (IIT). Two distinct strands of the literature have developed: First, measures of marginal IIT that are concerned with the adjustment implications of volume-based changes in IIT; second, measures of vertical and horizontal IIT that are concerned with quality-based differences in IIT. This paper marries the two literatures to provide a new perspective on the smooth adjustment hypothesis debate and suggests the use of the marginal product quality index, a new measure of changes in quality in matched trade changes that complements dynamic measures of volume-based IIT. JEL no.  F19     

日本制造业产业内贸易的特点及原因分析

日本作为东亚地区经济最发达的国家,对东亚地区产业结构升级、贸易互补贡献巨大。近些年来,日本的对外贸易结构有了新的发展趋势。因此,本文将根据联合国商品贸易统计数据库商品贸易数据来测算日本制造业的产业内贸易水平。首先,通过计算结果判断近年来日本制造业产品贸易类型发展的新特点、新趋势;其次,根据日本贸易类型的新特点和新趋势分别对该现象产生的原因进行解析。     

An impact of economic integration through trade: on business cycles for 10 East Asian countries

Many recent studies about East Asian countries discussed “natural” economic integration through trade, but there are few rigorous empirical studies on how their economies were affected by the evolution of economic integration within the region. This paper investigates the effect of bilateral trade dependence on the co-movement of business cycles for 10 East Asian countries. We find that economic fluctuations tend to be more synchronized within the region as trade interdependence among them deepens. This finding suggests the necessity of cooperative efforts to prevent or adjust unfavorable future economic crisis in East Asia.     

Production Structure in the Context of International Trade

This paper deals with the recent empirical phenomenon of intra-industry trade, i.e., trade in similar goods between similar countries. It treats this phenomenon from the point of view of the theory of the structure of production, highlighting the importance of the sequential nature of production and the heterogeneity and specificity of factors of production, as developed by Carl Menger, Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk and their followers of the Austrian School of economics. The reader is first exposed to the historical development of production and capital theory. A simple theory of production structure, along the lines of Austrian economics, is afterwards presented and a useful tool for the analysis of intra-industry trade is developed. In the following discussion of existing theories of intra-industry trade, we make the case for vertical intra-industry specialization, complex manufactured goods and sliced-up production chains across countries. The reader immediately observes the importance of Austrian production structure theory for the analysis of intra-industry trade. We accordingly apply the concepts of the structure of production to intra-industry trade and analyze, in particular, the time- and place-aspects of international production. The concluding section shows the relevance of our approach to intra-industry trade for the analysis of business cycle synchronization across countries, and for the optimum currency areas theory.     

An empirical examination of the role of vertical product differentiation in north-south trade

Conclusions Our results indicate that the general line of reasoning embodied in the recently developed models of North-South IIT would seem to be valid. The various measures of income and size similarity do seem to affect North-South IIT in the theoretically predicted way. Further, this type of trade is positively impacted by the direction of quality differences and, to a lesser degree, the extent of quality differences. Finally, it would appear that modeling this type of trade on a bilateral basis using data detailed by both industry and country has not only theoretial appeal, but is empirically useful. The results, however, do not address the mechanism which generates these quality differences between the exports of the North and South. The theoretical models use different assumptions concerning the process which generates the quality differences. Such differences may be related to capital abundance as in Falvey [1981]; a Ricardian form of comparative advantage as in Flam and Helpman [1987]; or a complex combination of the two.¹⁵ Some preliminary evidence on the role of quality differences has been given in this paper. The difficult task of explaining what generates these differences is an important issue left unaddressed at this point.     

Comparative home-market advantage: An empirical analysis of British and American exports

This paper derives and tests the hypothesis that a country exports relatively more of those goods for which it has a relatively larger home market, i.e., a comparative home-market advantage. This prediction is based on a two-country, many-good intraindustry trade model with economies of scale, international transaction costs and differences in expenditure shares and country size. The data from 1970 to 1987 of 26 industries of the manufacturing sector in the United States and the United Kingdom supports this hypothesis. It is also shown that the relationship between home-market size and export structure becomes significantly stronger for industries with high fixed costs. JEL no. F12, F14, F17     

中日IT产品贸易发展与产业分工关系演进分析

20世纪90年代以来,中日IT产品贸易规模不断扩大,并且在中日贸易总额中所占的比重不断提高。与此同时,中日IT产业的分工关系和产业竞争力也发生了重大变化。具体说来主要表现在3个方面:一是中国IT产品特别是IT制成品的国际竞争力不断提高;二是中日IT产品的产业内贸易经历了一个先是迅速上升然后又缓慢下降的过程;三是中日IT产品在总体上还处于垂直分工状态,单位产品价格相差悬殊。中国IT产业快速发展的历史经验为我们更好地参与国际分工和发展对外经济关系提供了许多有益的思路。     

金砖国家之中巴外贸发展的比较研究

中国和巴西作为两大新兴市场经济体和金砖国家合作机制的成员国,其经济崛起日益受到世界的关注。本文从两国外贸发展的视角入手,对中巴外贸发展的现状和外贸发展历程进行比较,进而发现中巴经贸关系发展中存在的问题,最后展望前景。     

Labour-market effects of intra-industry trade: Evidence for the United Kingdom

Labor-Market Effects of Intra-Industry Trade: Evidence for the United Kingdom. — According to the “smooth adjustment hypothesis”, the labor-market adjustment costs entailed by trade liberalization are lower if trade expansion is intra-industry rather than inter-industry in nature. In this paper, we study the link between trade and labor market changes in UK manufacturing industries during the 1980s. We use industry-level measures of unemployment duration and wage variability as proxies for adjustment costs, and we relate them to various measures of intra-industry trade. Our evidence offers some support for the smooth adjustment hypothesis.     

Quality differentiation and factor proportions in international trade: An empirical test of the Swedish case

Review of World Economics -     

谈国际保理业务在我国的发展

国际保理业务是一项集结算、融资、账务管理及风险担保等功能于一体的创新型金融业务,但我国保理业务却面临着发展的困境。本文通过对这一业务进行简要地介绍,并对保理业务在我国所面临的种种问题进行充分地分析,进而理顺保理业务的发展思路,提出在我国发展保理业务的若干建议。