中国商业车险奖惩系统的精算分析

2015年我国商业车险费率市场化改革试点实施后,媒体对新车险的奖惩系统进行了大肆渲染,一方面强调大多数投保人的应缴保费将会下降,另一方面也指出出险次数多的高风险投保人将会受到"严惩"。从平均保费水平、惩罚严厉性指数、风险区分度和弹性等四个方面对2015版的车险奖惩系统进行了精算度量,并将其与2007版的奖惩系统进行了对比分析,一方面从精算学的角度对媒体的宣传报道进行了实证检验,另一方面指出了2015版奖惩系统增加了风险区分度、提高了效率,同时也加重了对高级别保单持有人的过度惩罚。     

考虑信用风险的中小上市公司成长性评价研究

设立中小企业成长性的评价指标体系并对其进行有效评价有助于中小企业的发展,越来越多的研究从各个角度建立评价指标体系来评价其成长能力.在已有的较成熟的指标体系中引入度量信用风险的指标,从而使评价指标体系更为完善,并通过对我国中小上市公司的实证研究发现,新评价体系的可靠性和有效性均较原评价体系有所提高.     

Development of Accounting Regulatory Framework in China: An Empirical Evaluation

In China, the government has long been involved in directly regulating accounting work. The rule-based accounting regulations have been formulated for different industry and business ownership structure by the central government since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. Remarkable changes have, however, taken place in Chinese accounting which have resulted from the wide-ranged economic and accounting reforms in the last two decades. Recently, an accounting regulatory framework based on accounting standards has been introduced, with great efforts to develop a set of practical accounting standards. A survey study was conducted to empirically investigate the prevailing perceptions of the users and providers of business accounting in respect of four major conceptual and practical issues underlying the construction of the accounting regulatory framework in the changing business environment in China. The study results demonstrate that the respondents from various interest groups possessed mixed views. They generally endorsed the current progress in the accounting reforms. On the other hand, the majority of the respondents were supportive of further changes in reshaping accounting regulatory framework to accommodate the growth of market-oriented economy in China.     

Firm-Specific Determinants of Income Smoothing in Bangladesh: An Empirical Evaluation

The purpose of this chapter is to empirically examine the existence of income smoothing and determinants of smoothing behavior in Bangladesh. Using Eckel's (1981), Abacus (June), 28–40, “comparison of the variance of sales and profit” method, this study finds that a fair number of Bangladeshi firms engage in income smoothing. Particularly, 46 firms out of a sample of 107 firms with available data, engage in at least one type of income-smoothing behavior. Further, a logistic regression result indicates that firms characterized by sponsors having the largest ownership stake among all the equity holders and smaller firms engage more in income smoothing. Also, firms that have high debt to equity ratio engage more in smoothing behavior.     

The Review Report: An Empirical Investigation

A laboratory study was used to investigate two questions of relevance to the expectations gap: (1) what differences do the users of financial statements perceive between an audit and a review?, and (2) what impact does changing the format of the audit report from the short form wording used in the UK prior to September 1993 to an expanded version (based on the expanded US audit report) have on these perceptions? Results of investigating (1) indicate that users perceive a number of differences between the audit and the review. Results of investigating (2) demonstrate that expansion of the audit report increases the number of differences perceived by users. The paper goes on to discuss the results in the context of the differences between an audit and a review suggested by IFAC guidelines. It was found that, in a number of respects, IFAC guidelines are inconsistent with user perceptions irrespective of the expansion of the audit report. The implication for audit policy is that any proposal to promote the use of reviews in the UK should address this inconsistency either by reappraising and refining IFAC's guidance on the review and/or by sharpening user perceptions of the review through careful wording of both the review and the audit reports.     

Audit Fees and Deeds of Cross Guarantee: An Empirical Evaluation

Since 1985, directors of Australian corporate groups have had the opportunity to execute a regulatory financing instrument, currently described as a deed of cross guarantee (DXG), between a holding company and one or more subsidiaries. This unique Australian regulatory intervention was advanced and justified on the basis that relieving subsidiaries from financial reporting requirements with associated cross‐guaranteeing debt obligations would reduce the regulatory burden on groups of companies, and subsequently reduce audit and administration costs. Given the claims of regulators' and others in the business community, this paper examines whether, ceteris paribus, the DXG has a significant mitigating effect on audit fee determination. Specifically, the study evaluates whether a particular engagement attribute decreases audit complexity and subsequently audit risk and audit fees. After controlling for size and group structure complexity of the auditee, the study finds that first‐time adopters of a DXG pay less in audit fees relative to non‐DXG groups, but there is lack of evidence to support ongoing audit fee savings from having a DXG in place. On the contrary, results show that a group with an established DXG pays much higher audit fees, which may be a consequence of the DXG introducing added complexity to the audit. The study also contributes to the methodological development of the standard audit fee model, particularly for the Australian context.     

分税制财政体制:激励与均衡效应的实证分析

通过对分税制激励效应与均衡效应的实证分析,认为分税制是激励有余而均衡不足,相关的政策建议是:应在理论和实践中都坚持"税收经济观"的思想,在经济持续、快速发展的基础上建立稳定增长的税收收入机制的同时,也重视发挥税收对经济的积极调控作用,从而实现税收与经济的良性循环;要扩大过渡期转移支付的规模和改进过渡期转移支持的办法;减少非均衡化方面的资金,逐步调整地方既得利益;加强对专项补助的管理,要控制其总量、优化其结构、并确保重点.     

支付清算系统对在途资金影响的实证研究

中国现代化支付系统是金融市场的重要基础设施,对金融稳定和货币政策的有效实施具有重要意义。2005年6月底,大额支付系统在全国推广运行,取代电子联行,实现资金汇划零在途。本文运用统计学方法,验证了中国现代化支付系统对在途资金影响的存在,证明了中国现代化支付系统的重要作用。     

关于商业银行绩效评价体系的实证研究

基于利益相关者理论和效率理论,借鉴CAMELS、PEARLS等银行评级体系,根据我国16家上市商业银行2004~2009年的财务数据,通过相关性分析和因子分析,从风险、收益和效率三个方面建立了三个层级的商业银行绩效评价指标体系,并在设定各项具体评价指标的评分标准和通过层次分析法来设定各级评价指标的权重的基础上,计算出我国16家上市商业银行2004~2009年的绩效评分。该绩效评价体系较好地反映了我国商业银行整体的经营绩效,对商业银行的经营管理具有较好的参考价值。     

内幕交易实时监控系统的构建——基于GARJI模型的实证研究

从信息抵达和动态跳跃特征的角度研究内幕交易的事中监管,构建了基于GAR JI模型的实时监控系统。从兼顾漏报和错报率的角度出发,提出了两档基于异常信息抵达概率和股价涨跌幅的内幕交易预警标准,保证了预警的功效。针对案例股票的模拟监控实验表明,该系统效果良好,适用于当前股市。     

我国银行间同业拆放利率影响因素的实证分析

银行间同业拆放市场利率是我国主要的货币市场利率,也是最早实现市场化的利率.对商业银行来说,同业拆放利率是商业银行决定贷款利率与存款利率的重要标准.本文通过建立单整自回归平均移动模型ARIMA,研究一年期人民币银行贷款利率、一年期人民币储蓄存款利率、三年期凭证式国债利率、法定准备金年利率、回购利率、消费价格指数、综合股价指数、金融机构各项贷款与存款总额比值和人民币对美元汇率这些因素对我国银行间拆放利率的影响.研究结果表明:一年期人民币银行贷款利率和回购利率是影响我国银行间同业拆放利率的主要因素.     

2009中国商业银行竞争力评价报告(摘要)

中国银行业在过去的2008年表现如何,多年来的改革成果是否经得住外部环境恶化的考验,《银行家》研究中心以全球金融危机下的中国银行业为研究对象,为广大读者呈现出2009中国商业银行竞争力报告这一最新研究成果。     

An Empirical Evaluation of an Induced Theory of Financial Ratios

The recent paper of Tippett (1990) explores some analytical properties of accounting ratios on the assumption that the underlying financial aggregates are generated by some form of diffusion process. The present paper uses a long time series of four accounting ratios, taken from the Cambridge/DTI database of the accounts of UK listed companies, to assess whether the models advanced in this paper can be sustained at an empirical level. Of the models tested, only the Logarithmic Random Walk and the Elastic Random Walk, seem to be consistent with the data. Even here, however, there is some evidence that the constant variance (homoscedasticity) assumption may not be satisfied and there is also a suggestion that the normality assumption might not be satisfied by the Elastic Random Walk models. Nonetheless, these models perform as well, if not better, than any of the models previously examined in the literature.     

2009中国商业银行竞争力评价报告(摘要)续

继上期杂志刊登了部分内容摘要后,本期杂志继续刊登包括全国性商业银行财务评价、中国农村金融机构现状分析等报告的摘要,以飨读者。     

2008中国商业银行竞争力评价报告(摘要)

2008年7月27日,《银行家》研究中心经过一年的努力,搜集大量的数据,运用更加科学的分析方法,将最新一期的中国商业银行竞争力评价报告呈现给大家。     

An Empirical Evaluation of the Costs of Harmonizing Romanian Accounting with International Regulations (EU Directives and IAS/IFRS)

After the fall of communism, Romanian accounting has undergone several waves of reform. The first began with the 1991 Accounting Law and its 1993 Regulations implementing a French-inspired accounting chart and guidelines. The second wave of reform produced Regulations (in 1999 and 2001) for the harmonization of large entities' accounting with EU accounting directives and International Accounting Standards/International Financial Reporting Standards (IAS/IFRS). An interesting feature was the inclusion of IASB's conceptual framework into the text of these Regulations. Our study seeks to identify and evaluate the costs of harmonizing Romanian accounting with international regulations (EU Directives and IAS/IFRS). We hypothesize that three types of costs are prevalent: personnel training costs, consultants' fees and costs to adjust existing information systems. We also hypothesize that harmonization benefits are noticeable for those entities that make frequent use of foreign finance and for those entities with majority foreign shareholders. To collect data, we sent out questionnaires to the finance directors of listed Romanian companies. As full application of IAS/IFRS by non-financial companies has recently been postponed until 2007, we also comment on the benefits and costs of gradual reforms as opposite to a one-step adoption of IAS/IFRS.     

The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis

This article compares the market value of highly leveraged transactions (HLTs) to the discounted value of their corresponding cash flow forecasts. For our sample of 51 HLTs completed between 1983 and 1989, the valuations of discounted cash flow forecasts are within 10 percent, on average, of the market values of the completed transactions. Our valuations perform at least as well as valuation methods using comparable companies and transactions. We also invert our analysis by estimating the risk premia implied by transaction values and forecast cash flows, and relating those risk premia to firm and industry betas, firm size, and firm book-to-market ratios.