Level changes in volatility models

Level shifts confound the estimation of persistence. This paper shows analytically, in simulations, and using high-frequency stock price data that models for financial volatility that feature a separate source of randomness in the volatility equation are less susceptible to this effect. Such models include recently proposed time series models for realized volatility, as opposed to GARCH models for daily observations, which are highly sensitive to unknown shifts, as has been shown before.     

Correlation in credit risk changes

The current economic climate makes understanding credit risk correlation particularly important. After allowing for a comprehensive set of observable firm-specific, industry, market, and macroeconomic factors, there is an economically significant co-movement in credit default swap spreads that remains to be explained. Including a time dummy completely accounts for the remaining co-movement, confirming the existence of a systematic component that has been previously unaccounted for. Our findings suggest that it may be important to consider unobservable risk factor(s) in credit risk models.     

Corporate investment and changes in GAAP

This paper investigates whether changes in Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) affect corporate investment decisions. Using a sample containing forty nine changes in GAAP, I find that changes in accounting rules affect investment decisions. I then examine two mechanisms through which changes in GAAP affect investment. First, I find that changes in GAAP affect investment, particularly R&D expenditures, when firms have financial covenants that are affected by changes in GAAP. Second, I find evidence suggesting that the process of complying with some changes in GAAP alters managers’ information sets and consequently changes their investment decisions, particularly their capital and R&D expenditures and, to a weaker extent, their acquistion expenditures. This paper contributes to the literature on the real effects of accounting by providing evidence that accounting rules affect investment decisions even when the rule change does not concern the measurement and reporting of investment, and by documenting specific mechanisms through which the relation manifests.     

我国房贷政策回顾

在1988年第一次住房体制改革会议召开后,1991年住房信贷业务开始了起步,各项住房信贷政策出台。1991年建设银行、工商银行都成立了房地产信贷部,办理个人住房信贷业务,并制定职工住房抵押贷款管理办法。     

Understanding the changes in accounting thought

Financial accounting and reporting are in the midst of one of the most significant revolutionary changes in modern history. The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework that will contribute to the dialogue surrounding these developments. We use Kuhn’s [Kuhn, T. S. (1970). The structure of scientific revolutions. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press] framework on the theory of scientific revolution to describe how changes in the need for information, coupled with the lack of relevant accounting information, led to reporting anomalies that have spurred a revolutionary shift in accounting paradigms. We are moving from an accounting paradigm that existed in the age of an industrial economy to an accounting paradigm that fits the economy in an information age. This redirection has resulted in the following: a change in the conceptualization and application of relevance and reliability, an increased use of fair value versus historical cost measurements, a renewed emphasis on principles versus rules, and an evaluation of the composition of the basic financial statements.     

Creativity and dysfunction in strategic processes: The case of scenario planning

This paper attempts to open up a new line of enquiry into the dysfunctions of creativity within strategic processes. Generally, the impact and results of introducing creativity (and innovation) into organisational life are perceived to be wholesome and beneficial. But recent research in the area of organisational psychology has documented a ‘dark’ side to its introduction, e.g., low employee morale, stress, theft, sabotage, destructive conflict. Learning from this work and shifting the domain to strategic management, this paper focuses on scenario planning—a strategy process widely regarded by participants and facilitators as creative and innovative in structure, content and output. First, the creative credentials of the process are established with reference to the literature and definitions from the creative and cultural industries. Second, the process is deconstructed into activities and each is examined for the extent of its embedded creativity. Third, informed by case evidence, four dysfunctions of the scenario planning process are conjectured: creativity layered on fantasy; heightened expectations and confusion; pride and passion; and creativity leading to excess. The paper concludes by suggesting four options for handling these potential dysfunctional effects and, in the light of the dialogue presented, re-interprets the definition of scenario planning presented earlier in the text.     

Recent changes in the prime rate behavior

This study presents evidence that, since the early 1990s, the prime rate has become more responsive to changes in money market conditions. More important, the evidence indicates that the responsiveness of the prime rate is independent of the direction in the movement of market interest rates, but is related to uncertainty regarding the direction in the movement of market interest rates. These findings are inconsistent with the literature suggesting that adjustment of the prime rate is asymmetric in the sense that it follows market interest rates more closely in upward movement than in downward movement.

Modeling structural changes in the volatility process

GARCH-type models have been very successful in describing the volatility dynamics of financial return series for short periods of time. However, the time-varying behavior of investors, for example, may cause the structure of volatility to change and the assumption of stationarity is no longer plausible. To deal with this issue, the current paper proposes a conditional volatility model with time-varying coefficients based on a multinomial switching mechanism. By giving more weight to either the persistence or shock term in a GARCH model, conditional on their relative ability to forecast a benchmark volatility measure, the switching reinforces the persistent nature of the GARCH model. The estimation of this benchmark volatility targeting or BVT-GARCH model for Dow 30 stocks indicates that the switching model is able to outperform a number of relevant GARCH setups, both in- and out-of-sample, also without any informational advantages.     

Computer facilitated changes in the management power structure

The effects of introducing a computer information system on power and influence structure is analysed in a radio and television company. First the concept of power is discussed using measures of general influence, changes in power bases, changes in channels and means of influence, and limits of discretion. The study found that the discretion within a job and the possibilities for influencing others are not directly related. The implementation of the computer information system resulted in all functional groups of employees losing discretion, whilst the gatekeepers to the technology gained in influence.     

Modeling volatility and changes in the swap spread

We investigate the determinants of changes in U.S. interest rate swap spreads using a model that explicitly allows for volatility interactions between swaps of different terms to maturity. Changes in the swap spread are found to be positively related to interest rate volatility, to changes in the default risk premium in the corporate bond market, and to changes in the liquidity premium for government securities. Swap spread changes are negatively related to changes in the level of interest rates and changes in the slope of the term structure. We also find that there is a strong and significant volatility interaction among spreads for swaps of different maturities and that the process for the conditional variance of the spread is highly persistent across all maturities.     

A method for calculating changes in regression coefficients and inverse matrices corresponding to changes in the set of available data

Abstract

Extract

When we have made a regression analysis, for instance on the basis of time series, it is often of interest to know how the results would change if we take into account observations made later on. Because it seems that the whole work of solving the normal equations must be made over again, we seldom continue the calculations by taking into account later information. It is, however, easy to find the adjustments required by a method developed in this article. It is possible to get time series showing the development of the regression coefficients without formidable work. We can in this way get a deeper insight in the problem to be studied than by making the regression analysis only once for all. If the purpose of the regression analysis is to obtain formulas to be used for forecasting, time series of regression coefficients give a better starting point than if we only have regression coefficients for a certain period.     

Output spillovers from changes in sovereign credit ratings

This research examines how a sovereign rating revision of one country influences the economic growth rates of other countries. Rating revisions have significant output spillover effects: A one-notch upgrade (downgrade) prompts on average a significant downward revision of about 0.03% (0.07%) in the consensus forecast of annual economic growth rates of other countries in the two-month period after the event. The spillovers are transmitted through direct and indirect trade and financial linkages between event and non-event countries. The evidence indicates that a predominance of differential (common) spillovers leads upgrades (downgrades) to produce adverse output effects for other countries.     

A note on beneficial changes in random variables

This paper is an extension of Jack Meyer's paper titled “Beneficial Changes in Random Variables Under Multiple Sources of Risk and Their Comparative Statics” published in the June 1992 issue of this journal. The extension consists of showing which of the sufficient conditions in Meyer's Theorems 1 and 3 are also necessary, and which are not. In addition, conditions are provided which are necessary and sufficient for general beneficial changes to imply a decrease in the demand for insurance.     

Exchange risk and unanticipated changes in exchange rates

In this paper exchange risk is defined as the unanticipated part of the future changes in the exchange rates of a given currency. The unanticipated component in the fluctuations of a given currency is identified on the basis of a dynamic equilibrium process which determines the anticipated changes in the future exchange rates. Following the basic definition, a hypothetical process of dynamic adjustment and an empirical illustration of a possible estimation are discussed.     

Profiling high-frequency equity price movements in directional changes

Market prices are traditionally sampled in fixed time intervals to form time series. Directional change (DC) is an alternative approach to record price movements. Instead of sampling at fixed intervals, DC is data driven: price changes dictate when a price is recorded. DC provides us with a complementary way to extract information from data. It allows us to observe features that may not be recognized in time series. The argument is that time series and DC-based analysis complement each other. With data sampled at irregular time intervals in DC, however, some of the time series indicators cannot be used in DC-based analysis. For example, returns must be time adjusted and volatility must be amended accordingly. A major objective of this paper is to introduce indicators for profiling markets under DC. We analyse empirical high-frequency data on major equities traded on the UK stock market, and through DC profiling extract information complementary to features observed through time series profiling.     

Market quality changes in the London Stock Market

This paper examines the impact that the introduction of a closing call auction had on market quality at the London Stock Exchange. Using estimates from the partial adjustment with noise model of Amihud and Mendelson [Amihud, Y., Mendelson, H., 1987. Trading mechanisms and stock returns: An empirical investigation. Journal of Finance 42, 533–553] we show that opening and closing market quality improved for participating stocks. When we stratify our sample securities into five groups based on trading activity we find that the least active securities experience the greatest improvements to market quality. A control sample of stocks are not characterized by discernable changes to market quality.     

Recent changes in disclosure regulation: Description and evidence

Technology has dramatically reduced the cost of disclosing information to investors and created new conduits for securities' sales. The result is stock ownership, both direct and indirect, has never been more widely distributed. Equally important, changes have occurred in the institutional market for new offerings. Bought deals, Internet road shows, the preeminence of mutual funds and pension funds, and foreign investors and issuers have changed the market. In the wake of these changes, the SEC's disclosure policy has evolved. The evidence suggests we have moved from a world where information was released relatively infrequently and with significant lags to a world where information is released relatively rapidly on a continuous basis to as many investors as possible.     

The impact of rating changes in Australian financial markets

Credit ratings have only a limited role in Australian financial regulation, so the effects of rating changes on financial prices can be observed largely free from regulatory effects. We find that bond and stock prices move in the ‘expected’ direction following both positive and negative rating announcements, although the movements are small. Announcement effects are larger for small firms, for downgrades from investment to speculative grade, and where agencies have not previously indicated the rating is under review. Overall, the results suggest that agencies are not generally viewed as consistently having access to important information that is not already in the public domain.     

Leverage changes and growth options in mergers and acquisitions

We develop and empirically test a trade-off model for the analysis of leverage changes in mergers and acquisitions. Our study extends prior findings of a post-merger increase in leverage for the acquiring firm, by linking this leverage increase to merging firms that are less correlated, create significantly larger growth options, and have lower bankruptcy costs and lower volatility. Specifically, we show that acquiring firms are more likely to finance diversifying acquisitions with debt as equity holders exploit the increased debt capacity with higher leverage resulting in total merger gains that are positively associated with financial synergies. We also provide evidence of a U-shaped relationship between growth options and leverage changes theoretically and empirically in the context of mergers.