中国上市公司海外购长期绩效研究

本文探讨了自由现金流量假说与自大假说对我国上市公司海外并购绩效的解释能力.研究显示,对于我国企业而言,海外并购的影响是双方面的,即存在正的效应和负的效应.对于那些原本就资源丰富、绩效好的公司来说,海外并购带来的并不是正的效应,相反,它将会使企业的股东受损;对于那些资源贫乏、绩效较差的国内企业来说,海外并购有可能会带来更好的技术、管理观念等,从而使国内企业受益.     

资本市场效率与资产增长异象:源于“错误定价”还是“风险”

中国资本市场上是否存在资产增长异象？如果存在,其究竟是由错误定价还是风险变动引起？这是近年来金融经济学研究的热点问题,关系到资本市场能否为金融资产进行正确定价.本文以1998-2013年沪深两市A股上市公司为研究对象,深入考察了中国资本市场上的资产增长异象问题,并在此基础上对“错误定价假说”和“风险定价假说”的解释能力做了对比分析.研究结果显示,中国资本市场上存在明显的资产增长异象,且以总资产增长率为代表的资产增长代理指标在捕捉该异象方面具有最佳的优势.对两大假说的对比研究发现,“错误定价假说”中的“过度投资假说”和“市场择时假说”对中国资产增长异象的成因具有较强的解释能力,但“有限套利假说”的解释能力则相对较弱;而“风险定价假说”则没能得到中国资本市场数据的支持.这说明,中国资本市场上的资产增长异象主要是由投资者对市场信息的反应存在系统性偏差而不是风险变动导致的.     

制度因素与贸易的边界效应

本文将制度变量纳入McCallum模型,在前人基础上提出规范研究的"贸易制度假说";据此,通过我国2000-2004年进出口数据和国内贸易估算数据,进行FGLS和Tobit回归,基本验证了先前的假说。结果认为我国贸易的边界效应在样本期内出现下降的趋势,制度因素可以解释2000-2004年间我国出口边界效应下降的56.8%。     

我国居民不同资产财富效应的协整检验与比较

基于生命周期—持久收入假说理论,本文运用我国2003-2010年的季度数据分别对居民储蓄、股市资产和房地产进行了财富效应的实证检验、差异比较、原因分析,并提出对策建议.     

增发新股的股价效应理论综述

本文首先概述了增发新股的概念、融资能力以及在我国的发展历程。然后归纳了增发股价效应的基础理论,即价格压力假说、杠杆作用假说和信息假说。在此基础上,对国内外学者就增发的股价效应的实证文献进行了综述,并提出了研究展望。     

我国企业重组效应分析

企业重组是现代企业在市场经济条件下追求经济利润,提高企业竞争力,实现资本要素优化组合的重要战略手段。根据企业重组理论和财务管理理论,运用实证分析方法、统计分析方法和财务分析方法,从上市公司收集到的数据重点分析了收购兼并、资产出售、股权转让、资产置换四种模式的规模效应和财务效应,最后对新时期我国企业重组的发展进行了展望。     

我国企业重组效应分析

企业重组是现代企业在市场经济条件下追求经济利润，提高企业竞争力，实现资本要素优化组合的重要战略手段。根据企业重组理论和财务管理理论，运用实证分析方法、统计分析方法和财务分析方法，从上市公司收集到的数据重点分析了收购兼并、资产出售、股权转让、资产置换四种模式的规模效应和财务效应，最后对新时期我国企业重组的发展进行了展望。     

我国上市公司资产收购的短期市场绩效研究

本文以2010-2012年间进行了资产收购的上市公司为研究对象,研究上市公司资产收购对企业短期市场绩效的影响。研究结果表明资产收购的企业在短期内并不能使企业的市场价值增加,即短期内不能获得正的累计超长收益（CAAR）。     

机构投资者如何影响股票流动性?交易假说抑或信息假说

机构投资者已成为我国证券市场的重要参与主体,但以往的研究多数仅关注了机构投资者对股票市场稳定性和公司治理效率的影响,而忽略了机构投资者的股票流动性效应,机构投资者如何影响股票流动性的问题并未得到有效的澄清。文章在现有研究基础上,将机构投资者影响股票流动性的路径界定为交易假说和信息假说两类,并使用我国股票市场的高频交易数据对这两类假说进行了实证检验。研究发现,机构投资者既能通过信息假说路径负向影响股票流动性,也能够通过交易假说路径负向影响股票流动性。这说明,我们在改善信息披露、减少内幕交易以降低信息摩擦的同时,还需要改善交易机制以降低真实摩擦。     

权益性可供出售金融资产对上市公司的影响

随着新会计准则在上市公司的实施,可供出售金融资产成为上市公司金融资产的重要部分,其是尤以股票类可供出售金融资产为主,即权益性可供出售金融资产.由于可供出售金融资产核算的特点,对上市公司的资产规模、每股资产及公司业绩等的影响很大.本文探讨了上市公司中权益性可供出售金融资产的现状,分析了权益性可供出售金融资产对上市公司的影响,并提出了自己的建议.     

Stock Price Response to Earnings Announcements: Evidence From the Nigerian Stock Market

The author examines the stock market reaction to annual earnings information releases using data for a sample of firms on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Using the event study method, the author found that the magnitude of the cumulative abnormal returns is dominated by significant reactions 20 days before the earnings release date, which suggests that a portion of the market reaction may be due to private acquisition and, possibly, abuse of information by insiders. The persistent downward drift of the cumulative abnormal returns, 20 days after the announcement, is inconsistent with the efficient markets hypothesis.     

Market Reaction to Information Shocks—Does the Bloomberg and Briefing.com Survey Matter?

Bloomberg and Briefing.com provide competing forecasts for prescheduled macroeconomic announcements. This study examines the accuracy of these forecasts and market reactions to announcement surprises. Our results show that the Bloomberg survey is slightly more accurate than the Briefing.com survey. More importantly, although announcement surprises based on both surveys have a significant effect on the trading activities and returns of S&P 500 futures contracts, the Bloomberg survey subsumes the explanatory power of the Briefing.com survey. The findings suggest that on average Bloomberg forecasts are more consistent with the market consensus view. In addition, we provide evidence of asymmetric market reactions to positive versus negative announcement surprises. In particular, the market reacts strongly to inflation news in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) announcements and negative shocks in housing price, personal spending, and retail sales.     

Asymmetric Post-Announcement Drift to Good and Bad News: Evidence from Voluntary Trading Disclosures in the Chinese Stock Market

This article investigates the post-announcement drift (PAD) of stock returns in the Chinese stock market. We use a sample of voluntary trading disclosures to test the hypothesis that an asymmetric PAD exists in a market in which managers are more likely to suppress negative news. We show that a pattern of short-term momentum and long-term reversal in returns persists for up to 250 trading days following the announcement of trading statements in the Chinese stock market. This finding is stronger for positive announcements in terms of the magnitude and the variance of stock returns. Our findings are in line with both Shin’s theoretical predictions and the credibility hypothesis, in which disclosure and asset returns are jointly determined and the adoption of a “sanitisation strategy” in information disclosure generates more volatile returns for firms issuing good news. Further, we show that the latter effect is more pronounced for firms which are partially state-owned, suggesting that they potentially receive more government support, a finding which is in line with the hypothesis that the incentive to suppress negative information is related to a country’s legal/judicial system.     

FIRE SALES FORENSICS: MEASURING ENDOGENOUS RISK

We propose a tractable framework for quantifying the impact of loss‐triggered fire sales on portfolio risk, in a multi‐asset setting. We derive analytical expressions for the impact of fire sales on the realized volatility and correlations of asset returns in a fire sales scenario and show that our results provide a quantitative explanation for the spikes in volatility and correlations observed during such deleveraging episodes. These results are then used to develop an econometric framework for the forensic analysis of fire sales episodes, using observations of market prices. We give conditions for the identifiability of model parameters from time series of asset prices, propose a statistical test for the presence of fire sales, and an estimator for the magnitude of fire sales in each asset class. Pathwise consistency and large sample properties of the estimator are studied in the high‐frequency asymptotic regime. We illustrate our methodology by applying it to the forensic analysis of two recent deleveraging episodes: the Quant Crash of August 2007 and the Great Deleveraging following the default of Lehman Brothers in Fall 2008.     

中国上市公司违规处理信息提前泄露了吗——来自股票流动性和融券交易的证据

本文从股票流动性和融券交易的视角出发,实证检验我国上市公司违规处理信息提前泄露的可能性。研究发现:(1)违规处理公告之前,股票超额非流动性水平和超额融券量显著为正,且与违规处理公告日的超额收益率显著负相关;(2)公告日超额收益率最低组股票的公告前超额非流动性更高,而公告日超额收益率最高组股票的公告前超额融券量更少;(3)当违规处理文件的下批日期与公告日期间隔超过10日时,公告日超额收益率较高的公司股票,其公告前的相对超额融券量显著减少,表明知情交易者占据了主导地位,处理公告的提前泄露更可能解释以上发现。本文的结果表明,监管部门应加强内部管理和提升工作效率,及时公布违规公司处理文件以减少信息提前泄露的可能性,从而有利于股票市场的健康发展。     

Scheduled announcements and volatility patterns: The effects of monetary policy committee announcements on LIBOR and short sterling futures and options

Both the UK spot and futures markets in short‐term interest rates are found to react strongly to surprises in the scheduled announcements of the repo rate and RPI. Therefore, these announcements should also affect the market for options on short‐term interest rate futures. Because the repo rate and RPI announcements are scheduled, the options market can predict the days on which announcement shocks may hit, and build this information into its volatility expectations. It is argued that the volatility used in pricing options should alter over time in a predictable nonlinear manner that varies with contract maturity and the number of forthcoming announcements; but is independent of announcement content. The empirical results support this hypothesis. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:773–797, 2003     

Individual differences in emotional contagion of salespersons: Its effect on performance and burnout

This article explores the emotional contagion hypothesis, proposed by Hatfield, Cacioppo, and Rapson (1994), in a sales context. Specifically, the emotional contagion hypothesis explains how the emotions of two people (e.g., salesperson and customer) during a conversation are transmitted from one to the other via facial cues, and that these emotions affect the outcome of that interaction. The emotional contagion hypothesis implies that there are definitive individual differences concerning whether someone is either sensitive to emotions from others or able to transmit his or her emotions onto others. This study explores whether these individual differences are assets or liabilities over the long term for salespersons in a sales organization. The data in this study show that a salesperson's ability to infect others with his or her emotions is an asset (because it can lead to higher performance). In addition, being sensitive to the emotions of others is an asset (it can also lead to better performance); at the same time it is a liability (because of the higher risk of burnout). This study further explores how emotionally sensitive salespersons develop burnout as a consequence of role stress, which then affects their performance. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Firm-level volatility and exports

This paper shows that the share of exports in the total sales of a firm has a positive and substantial impact on the volatility of its sales. Decomposing the volatility of sales of exporters between their domestic and export markets, I show using an identification strategy based on a firm-specific geographical instrument that firms with a larger export share have more volatile domestic sales and less volatile exports. These empirical patterns can be explained using a model in which firms face market-specific shocks and short-run convex costs of production. In such a framework, firms react to a shock in one market by adjusting their sales in the other market. I point to strong evidence that output variations on the domestic and export market are negatively correlated at the firm level. This result casts doubts on the standard hypothesis that firms face constant marginal costs and maximize profits on their different markets independently of each other. Furthermore, it points to the caveat that sales volatility on a particular market only gives limited information about the size of shocks on that market.     

A binomial model of Geithner's toxic asset plan

This paper formally models the Public-Private Investment Partnership (PPIP), a plan for U.S. government sponsored purchases of distressed assets. This paper solves both the problem of the asset manager buying toxic assets and the banks selling toxic assets. It solves for the fair market value of toxic assets implied by subsidized toxic asset sales, and it estimates the size of the government's subsidy. Moreover, this paper finds the circumstances under which banks and asset managers will meet at mutually acceptable prices. In general, healthier banks will be more willing sellers of toxic assets than zombies.     

资本资产定价模型有关假设的逻辑分析

资本资产定价模型 (CAPM)假设投资者具有一致预期 ,关于资本资产各项特征的判断完全相同 ,投资者会选择同一个更优的组合。这样 ,所有投资者最终会同时买入 (或卖出 )某一项资产 ,而不存在相应的卖出 (或买入 )者 ,这说明模型假设存在逻辑上的悖论。市场有效性决定了投资者不可能运用历史数据对当前和将来趋势作出准确判断 ,CAPM模型所提供的最优组合只是对过去不同时期优化值的平均 ,有关假设忽视了投资者对资本资产预期价值判断的多样性。投资者不会统一按照CAPM给出的唯一组合来选择风险资产 ,CAPM的最优投资组合可行集实际上是投资组合可能集合的前沿曲线的渐近线 ,而不是前沿曲线的切线。