Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain

What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation – the ‘expectations channel’ – suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high-frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in the United Kingdom between the wars. A high-frequency vector autoregression suggests that inflation expectations were an important source of the early stages of economic recovery in interwar Britain.     

The scale of Norwegian interwar unemployment in international perspective

Abstract

The author offers revised estimates of Norwegian interwar unemployment, and argues that total unemployment as a percentage of the labour force was considerably lower than the unemployment rate for trade unionists. The new figures, suggesting annual unemployment to hover between 5 and 10 percent for most of the interwar period, seem somewhat lower than the scale of Norwegian interwar unemployment according to the conventional view. However, they correspond well with similar calculations carried out for other countries. suggesting that unemployment as a percentage of the total labour force was about 1.5-3 times lower than that among insured workers.     

Mr Drage,Mr Everyman,and the creation of a mass market for domestic furniture in interwar Britain1

This article examines strategies used by durable goods retailers to create a mass market in interwar Britain, via a case study of domestic furniture. Interwar demand for new furniture witnessed particularly rapid growth—mainly owing to the extension of the market to lower‐income groups. A number of innovative national retailers developed liberal hire purchase (HP) facilities in order to bring furniture within the economic reach of these groups, while sophisticated national advertising campaigns were used both to legitimize the buying of furniture on HP and to project the idea that furnishing by this means was key to achieving the type of aspirational lifestyles being promulgated in the popular media.     

The effectiveness of financial incentives in controlling the health care expenditures of seniors

This paper examines whether financial incentives imposed on health insurers are effective or not in containing the health care expenditures of seniors. Under the Japanese health care system, the degree of financial incentives to restrain the health care expenditures of seniors varied significantly among almost 5300 insurers. The extent to which the strength of financial incentives is related to the actual health care expenditures is analyzed. The results indicate that financial incentives do not appear to restrain expenditures significantly.     

The determinants of competitive success in the interwar British radio industry1

This article discusses the sources of competitive advantage in the interwar British radio industry. Specifically, it examines why sections of the industry that reaped substantial monopoly rents from the downstream value chain failed to dominate the industry. During the 1920s Marconi (which controlled the fundamental UK patents) had a key cost advantage, as had other members of the ‘Big Six’ electrical engineering firms which formed the BBC and were granted preferential royalties. Meanwhile the valve manufacturers' cartel was also able to extract high rents from set manufacturers. The vertical integration literature suggests that input monopolists have incentives to control downstream production. Yet—in contrast to the gramophone industry, which became concentrated into two huge companies following market saturation in the 1930s—radio retained a much more competitive structure. The Big Six failed to capitalize fully on their initial cost advantages owing to logistical weaknesses in supplying markets subject to rapid technical and design obsolescence. Subsequently, during the 1930s, marketing innovations are shown to have played a key role in allowing several independents to establish successful brands. This gave them sufficient scale to provide strong bargaining positions with input suppliers, negating most of their initial cost disadvantage.     

The real structural imbalance and fiscal stance in Australia during the interwar years

By using the concept of the constant employment budget balance and changes in real public debt it is possible to determine the size of the public sector's real structural budget imbalances during the interwar period. In doing so the budget deficit of the public sector during the depression is shown to have been much larger than indicated by previous estimates of the nominal budget imbalance, and indicates that the fiscal stance of the government was expansionary during the worst year of the Great Depression rather than contractionary.     

Patterns and determinants of manufacturing plant location in interwar London

Greater London constituted Britain's most important interwar centre for new manufacturing plants. Using a new dataset of plants established throughout London from 1919 to 1938, this article examines intra-metropolitan location patterns, together with the factors that led to heavy concentrations of plants in particular localities. Traditional sectors characterized by batch production are shown to be concentrated in sectorally specialized inner London industrial districts, benefiting from Marshallian externalities. Meanwhile, industries experiencing a transition towards standardized production became concentrated in new industrial areas along outer London's arterial road network, encompassing a diverse range of sectors using similar production methods and mainly accruing inter-sectoral 'Jacobs' externalities.     

The cost of railroad regulation: the disintegration of American agricultural markets in the interwar period

This article investigates the costs of transport regulation using the example of agricultural markets in the US. Using a large database of prices by state of agricultural commodities, we find that dispersion fell for many commodities until the First World War. We demonstrate that this reflected changes in transport costs which in turn in the long run depended on productivity growth in railroads. The year 1920 marked a change in this relationship, however, and between the First and Second World Wars we find considerable disintegration of agricultural markets, ultimately as a consequence of the 1920 Transportation Act. We argue that this benefited railroad companies in the 1920s and workers in the 1930s, and we put forward an estimate of the welfare losses for the consumers of railroad services (that is, agricultural producers and final consumers).     

The upgrading effect of voluntary export restraints

Summary Given that a volume-defined VER is introduced on two differently priced varieties of a good,(i) the transfer of the VER-rent to the exporting country will cause imports of both varieties to fall,(ii) the relative price change in favour of the high cost variety counteracts this import fall and could in fact outweigh it,(iii) an ad valorem tariff restoring the original relative price of the two varieties would increase welfare and that welfare increase could in fact outweigh the welfare loss due to the VER-transfer to the exporting country.     

A comparison of the technical efficiencies of health districts and hospitals in Botswana

An attempt is made here to construct and present relative efficiency indices for the services rendered by health districts and specific hospitals in Botswana, using Stochastic Frontier Regression analysis and Data Envelopment Analysis. The analysis indicated that three districts - Kweneng East, Kgalagadi and Boteti - have efficiency scores below the optimum level. Among the 13 hospitals considered, Tsabong Primary Hospital was found to have an efficiency score of less than one. Since the health services involve a number of factors, these indices ought to serve as indicators for further scrutiny of those units (health districts and hospitals) that fall below the optimum efficiency level. The data used for the analysis are from the published material by the Central Statistics Office, Botswana for the year 1997. Health is considered one of the major concerns of the government of Botswana. As a consequence, the authors feel that this study will be useful to policy makers and health planners in giving them some kind of relative ranking among health districts and hospitals.     

The process of financial reforms in China

This study aims to show that financial reforms in China can be viewed as an endogenous adjustment process responding primarily to economic growth and changes in political constraints. The author's argument is thus against the mainstream view in which financial reforms are regarded as primary policy tools for the promotion of economic growth. Three factors are carefully examined for the explanation of the endogenous characteristics of financial reforms. First, this paper takes a close look at endogenous aspects of Chinese financial repression. The endogenous characters of financial repression explain why financial reforms in China follow an endogenous path. Second, recent developments of legal frameworks are found to have been institutional responses to macroeconomic imbalances, financial disorders, and increased demands for property right protection. Finally, this paper shows that the lack of market infrastructure and various political constraints have been major obstacles for China's capital market development.