Can the Japanese agri-food producers survive under freer trade? A general equilibrium analysis with farm heterogeneity and product differentiation

The roles of firm heterogeneity and product differentiation in the manufacturing industries have attracted research attention on the “new new trade theory.” The agricultural sectors also produce new goods using product differentiation through breeding, branding, and other activities. In reaction to globalization, the Japanese Government has sought to revitalize its agri-food sectors by promoting exports of differentiated products. This computable general equilibrium study examines the relevance of this policy, focusing on five agri-food sectors other than grains. We simulate Japan’s three trade deals and a policy intervention that cuts fixed export costs to promote exports. We show that only a few agri-food sectors can increase exports and maintain domestic output under freer trade, and that export promotion would markedly increase entrants into export markets and increase exports of the vegetables and fruit, and processed food product sectors. In these trade deals, tariff and nontariff barriers have different impacts on trade, output, and farm/firm entry.     

Trade developments during the first Lomé Convention

The Lomé Convention signed in 1975 between the European Economic Community (EEC) and 46 African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) States, was hailed as a model for a New International Economic Order. This article analyses the trade between the two groupings during the five years (1975–1979) of the first Convention, in the context of world trade. In general there was no substantial change in trade flows. Contrary to ACP aspirations for an improvement in their export performance with the Europeans, the EEC share of ACP exports declined. Despite the Convention's provisions, the ACP even failed to maintain their shares of the EEC market, actually faring worse than other non-oil LDCs. Little diversification was achieved in ACP exports. In contrast, the EEC maintained its position in ACP markets.     

中国制造业出口贸易的技术结构分布及其国际比较

借鉴Lall(2000)及OECD(2008)的方法,利用1995～2006年三位数《标准国际贸易分类》数据,本文分析了中国制造业出口贸易的技术结构分布,并与世界主要国家和地区进行了比较。研究发现:(1)从贸易统计上看,中国制造业出口的技术结构已经由低技术制造业转向了高技术制造业。(2)与日本、美国和德国等世界主要发达国家以汽车、化工和机械等中技术制成品出口为主不同,中国的出口主要集中在低技术制成品和高技术制成品,其中低技术制成品以纺织、皮革和鞋类为主,而高技术制成品则以信息和通信技术产品为主。(3)中国出口贸易的技术结构与发展中经济体更为相似,特别是向亚洲新兴工业经济体不断趋同;与发达经济体的差异虽然较大,但正迅速向其趋同。由于中国高技术产品的出口贸易主要依靠外资企业和加工贸易,中国出口贸易的技术结构分布和贸易竞争力可能被夸大了。     

Flying with the Dragon: Estimating Developing Countries’ Gains from China's Imports

As a large trading nation, China competes with importing countries’ domestic and third‐country markets but also creates growth opportunities for exporters. Most studies on China trade shocks or “China shocks” focuse on the impacts of import competition on developed economies. The present paper complements research on China shocks by exploring the other side of the trade exposure to China – China as the largest importer, rather than as an exporter. We analyze the effects of export expansion into China on the local labor markets of the exporting developing countries for the years 1992 to 2018. Using detailed export and employment data, we estimate employment pattern variations in manufacturing industries with exports from other developing countries as instruments for export exposure. We find that the increase in trade exposure to China in the world economy has caused extensive job gains in manufacturing industries in developing countries that were exporters. On average, our estimations show that this trade exposure created approximately 1.5 million additional jobs from 1992 to 2018, which made an important contribution to manufacturing industries in developing countries. Our empirical analysis also shows that trade had stabilizing effects on employment in the countries in our sample generally.     

Too Far Away, Too High and Too Stable: The EEC and Trade with Australia During the 1960s

The EEC of the 1960s had little reason to prioritize trade with Australia: trade flows were too small and political ties between Australia and continental Europe too weak. That trade with Australia did become an issue of concern is thus largely due to Britain's 1961 EEC application. The shape of the deal that looked like emerging in 1961–3 was, however, highly ungenerous – a fact which reflected both the nature of Australian exports and a strong European belief that Australia was less 'deserving' than other Commonwealth countries. Australian relief at de Gaulle's veto may, however, have been premature, since early British membership of the Community might well have been in Australia's medium-term commercial interest.     

Trading firms in the services sectors: comparable evidence from four EU countries

We establish a set of stylised facts for trade and trading firms in five market services sectors using comparable firm- and activity-level data from four EU countries. Our analysis shows that exports account for much lower shares of overall sales in the services sectors than in manufacturing. This is because fewer firms are engaged in trade in the services sectors and also because within particular sectors firms trade a lower share of their sales on average. Services producers trade mostly goods, but in terms of value, trade in services is much more important to them than to manufacturers. Larger and more productive firms are more likely to be two-way traders and to engage in both goods and services trade. Trade by services firms is somewhat less dominated by firms that both export and import than trade by manufacturing firms. Few firms export many services or to many countries. The value of services exports is increasing in the number of markets served but not necessarily in the number of services traded.     

Structural change in the Chinese economy and changing trade relations with the world

This paper examines the impact of structural change in China, in particular a reduction in the savings rate, an increase in the share of skilled workers, and an increase in productivity in technologically advanced manufacturing sectors targeted by Made in China 2025. Baseline projections until 2040 are generated with the WTO Global Trade Model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. With the modelled structural changes, the Chinese economy is projected to reorient its focus increasingly onto the domestic economy, raising the share of private household and government consumption in GDP, turning China's trade surplus into a trade deficit, reducing China's share in global exports, raising the share of services in both production and exports, shifting the destination markets of Chinese exports from developed to developing countries, and changing its pattern of comparative advantage away from sectors like light and heavy manufacturing to electronic and machinery equipment. The large bilateral trade surplus vis-a-vis the United States is projected to fall to almost zero.     

Trade Diversion Effects of the New EU Arrangements on ASEAN

paper identifies the product groups of the ASEAN exports to Europe that will experience trade diversion effects from the enlargement of the EU (EU 12) with Austria, Finland and Sweden (EFTA 3) and the European association agreements with the Eastern European countries (EACs) using the methodology of Kreinin and Plummer. This methodology establishes for each sufficiently important ASEAN export product group to the EU 12, the EFTA 3 or the EACs whether or not competition is felt from one of the three groups of European countries, after which the tariff and non-tariff preferences towards European products and against the ASEAN exports are analysed.
The share of the exports in ASEAN's external trade with the EU 12, the EFTA 3 and the EACs that is affected by the trade diversion of these recent European integration initiatives, is calculated. It appears that the ASEAN exports to the EU 12 are affected by the accession of the EFTA3 only to a limited extent, but that the trade diversion effect on the EU 12 and the EFTA 3 markets to be expepected from the European association agreements with the EACs is considerable.     

The impact of trade facilitation factors on South Africa's exports to a selection of African countries

Economic growth can be enhanced through increased trade among countries, provided the correct institutional structures are in place. A country's trade is dependent not only on its own trade facilitation reforms but also on those of the trading partners. This paper, using an augmented gravity model, examines trade facilitation factors that impact on South Africa's exports to other selected African countries. The results of the estimation reveal the following. An improvement in the customs environment within the importing country provides the largest gain in terms of increasing trade flows, followed by the regulatory environment and domestic infrastructure. Furthermore, adjacency and common language impact positively on South African exports, while distance between countries impacts negatively on it. Being part of the Southern African Development Community is also enhancing exports from South Africa, compared with being part of the East African Community.     

Trade,Investment and Economic Interdependence between South Korea and China*

The Korean economy has been significantly affected by the emergence of China. It is now the largest market for Korean exports and a major supplier of its low‐cost imports but has at the same time become a serious challenger to Korea in the world markets for manufacturing exports. This paper investigates changes in China's export structure and its effect on Korea, and bilateral trade between the two. It also examines the motives for Korean investment in China and its effect on bilateral trade and cross‐border production networks.     

Impact of temporary trade barriers: Evidence from China

With a decrease in tariffs around the world, temporary trade barriers (TTBs) have increased dramatically to take their place. These TTBs are usually in the form of antidumping duties, countervailing duties and global safeguards. Recently, an increasing number of these TTBs have been targeted towards China. In this paper, I explore the impact of the US temporary trade barriers (TTBs) on Chinese exports. Using detailed product level data for the period 2002–2008, I find robust evidence of trade deflection i.e. the US trade barriers against China led to an increase in the growth of Chinese exports to other countries. However, I do not find any evidence of trade depression. The results are robust to a wide variety of specification and robustness tests. While I do not find any difference in the impact of TTBs across developed and developing countries, there is considerable heterogeneity in response to TTBs depending on the type of products involved. Specifically, I find that, while the US TTBs on non-steel products lead to an increase in Chinese exports of those products to third markets, there is a significant chilling effect in case of steel. Finally, most of the trade-deflection seems to be along the intensive margins i.e. an increase in exports to the existing third country markets rather than exports to new markets. If anything, the US TTBs on China seem to decrease Chinese exports to newer and more volatile markets.     

Financial dependence and exports: Entrants or incumbents?

Using firm-level customs data from 51 countries at different levels of development, we explore differential impacts of access to finance on incumbent and new exporters. Consistent with the literature, firms in sectors more dependent on external finance have higher exports based in financially more developed countries. This effect, however, occurs entirely through entrants, with no effect found for incumbents. The trade response of entrants works primarily through the extensive margin (number of exporters) rather than the intensive margin (average size). We further find access to external finance affects exporter entry rates while it does not affect exporter exit rates.     

Trade effects of European Community preferences to Mediterranean countries: The case of textile and clothing imports

The European Community (EC)'s preferential trade agreements with Mediterranean countries have been subject to little ex post assessment. This paper analyses the preferences' impact on EC textile and clothing imports from Mediterranean countries. The preferred imports grew faster than world trade or OECD imports from developing countries, and as a proportion of EC imports and Mediterranean exports; EC preferences thus appear to have had a significant effect on Mediterranean countries' textile and clothing exports, although some recipients have taken greater advantage than others. Post-1977 EC protectionism in these products further benefited the preference-recipients, who were largely unimpeded by quatitative restrictions.     

Has China displaced other Asian countries' exports?

This paper uses gravity modelling to explore whether and how the growth of China's exports is displacing exports of other Asian countries to third markets over the period 1990–2003. Chinese exports are defined both narrowly and more broadly to include exports from Hong Kong. We investigate whether the displacement effect on Asian exports differs when exports from Hong Kong and China are combined compared to the narrow case of Chinese exports only. Aggregate and disaggregated analyses are undertaken. In the latter, we explore whether the displacement effect varies across Asian countries and in trade with different types of countries. We find evidence of a displacement effect which is more pronounced in developed markets and stronger for Hong Kong and China combined. Further it is the high income Asian exporters that experienced a greater displacement effect. We also investigate whether China's development has generated any offsetting effects on its neighbours' exports to China itself and find that Chinese growth has indeed increased China's imports from the Asian countries in the sample and in particular from Japan and Korea.     

增加值视角下金砖国家制造业的贸易利得与竞争力研究

基于贸易增加值核算的基本原理,对金砖五国制造业出口增加值进行分解,同时利用标准显示性竞争指数测算金砖国家制造业竞争力,研究发现：中国的贸易利得与庞大的出口总额严重不匹配,其他金砖四国的贸易利得远远高于中国;对中国、巴西和印度而言,基于国内增加值测算的NRCA值要高于基于出口总额测算的NRCA值,而俄罗斯和南非恰恰相反;金砖五国在低技术制造业上表现出各自的竞争优势,除了中国在电子通信和光学设备制造业及机械制造业有相对的竞争优势外,金砖五国整体上在高技术产业层面与美日德等发达国家存在较大差距。应从培育高级要素、产能合作、共建科技创新体系等方面来提高金砖国家制造业竞争力。     

Is there a link between BRIC foreign direct investment and SADC export performance?

The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries have agreed to strengthen their economic ties, thus paving the way for enhanced trade and investment performance. South Africa's strategic value in BRICS is that it is a gateway to the opportunity-rich Southern African Development Community (SADC). By using South Africa as a production hub for exports to the surrounding region, foreign investors would have ready access to neighbouring markets. This article addresses the question of whether, and in what ways, foreign direct investment (FDI) from the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries to the SADC influences the SADC's export performance. A series of empirical analyses revealed a positive causation between BRIC FDI and SADC exports, offering a clear incentive for the SADC to rejuvenate its trade and investment policies and structures, and strengthen its ties with BRIC countries in the interests of attracting more FDI and building a strong and sustainable export sector.     

知识产权保护、行业特征与我国制造业出口比较优势

文章旨在分析知识产权保护能否成为我国制造业出口新的比较优势,利用我国1992-2012年对140个国家或地区的24个制造业行业的出口数据实证检验了三个理论命题。研究发现,知识产权保护对制造业出口比较优势的影响存在门槛,当知识产权保护程度跨过“知识产权保护门槛”后,知识产权保护与行业特征的协同效应才能有利于形成新的出口比较优势;从R&D投入强度、专属性投资强度以及关键要素投入强度三个方面,把我国24个制造业行业分为高行业特征和低行业特征分别进行估计后得到不同结论,低R&D投入强度和低关键要素投入强度制造业行业中,知识产权保护与行业特征的协同作用显著的有利于我国对贸易伙伴出口的增长,相反则不利于我国对贸易伙伴出口的增长。从我国出口方向来看,知识产权保护与产业特征的协同作用,对知识产权保护程度高于我国的地区来说,不能够显著提升出口比较优势。     

Looking into global value chains: influence of foreign services on export performance

Using data from the OECD Inter-Country Input–Output database, we explore the impact of foreign services value added content of exports on export performance, specifically on duration of trade. Our data show that the share of foreign services content in manufacturing exports grows from 1995 to 2011, in a way similar to foreign goods content, and in contrast to the decreasing share of domestic services. Moreover, the share of foreign services value added content is larger for developing and emerging countries than for advanced countries. Our econometric findings confirm that foreign services value added embodied in manufacturing exports contribute positively to more resilient exports relationships, a positive effect which occurs for the three groups of manufacturing industries (high, medium and low technology industries) and, for each group, it is more pronounced for developing and emerging economies.     

Exporting against Risk? Theory and Evidence from Public Export Insurance Schemes in OECD Countries

This paper endeavours to find out in how far public export insurance schemes foster international trade. Thereto, a gravity equation is derived, which accounts for the risk of financial losses in case firms contract defaulting foreign buyers. Empirical results suggest that OECD countries issuing trade credits with generous state-guarantees did not, during the 1999 to 2005 period, witness more exports towards politically and commercially more unstable low-income countries. Rather, publicly indemnified trade finance has promoted exports, to a modest degree, towards high and middle-income countries, where financial intermediaries and markets provide viable alternatives to hedge against payment risks.