不确定性与企业投资效率研究的文献综述

企业在不确定环境下的投资决策一直是经济学和金融学关注的焦点问题。本文从国内外研究现状着手,对不确定性与企业投资效率关系的文献进行了归纳分析,发现主流研究普遍认为不确定性对企业投资具有抑制作用。即不确定性越大,企业投资效率越低,具体表现为由不确定性引起的投资不足程度更高。通过对不确定性影响投资效率的相关文献进行系统梳理,为以后相关研究奠定了理论基础。     

酒店投资重在因势利导

酒店投资正成为众多机构及个人投资者的理想选择。当前宏观环境总体上是有利于酒店投资的，但是部分不确定性因素的增加却干扰了这种投资环境。为了能确保投资收益率的实现，投资者应谨慎分析当前的利好环境及不确定性因素。在此基础上，     

浅谈企业如何有效控制投资风险

企业投资是财务管理的重要环节，投资正确与否决定着企业的兴衰存亡，对企业的生存和发展具有决定性作用。投资是企业为获取收益而向一定对象投放资金的经济行为。由于企业的投资活动受到多种不确定因素的共同影响，因此投资收益具有不确定性，投资风险表现为不同投资结果与期望投资收益之间的不一致。     

油价不确定性与企业投资

本文利用2000-2015年中国宏观经济数据和1998-2007年中国工业企业调查数据,从宏观和微观两种视角考察了投资对油价不确定性冲击的反应。宏观研究发现,油价不确定性冲击不仅能够解释约12%的固定资产投资波动,而且还对固定资产投资具有短期抑制效应。在微观层面,本文采用基于异质性折旧率计算得到的企业投资,发现油价不确定性冲击在短期内对民营企业和外资企业投资也有抑制效应,但是对国有和集体企业的影响不显著,这一结论随着企业折旧率异质性的程度提高将变得更加明显。进一步分析发现,与非国有企业相比,国有和集体企业的投资行为具有明显的政策导向性,特别是在“十五计划”实施以后,国有和集体企业的投资密度比非国有企业高出约2.1%。这种政策导向性的存在,使得国有和集体企业的投资对油价不确定性冲击的反应并不显著。     

投资悖论

对冲基金大鳄索罗斯的一句话让我记忆犹新：“世界的不确定性因素给我带来了巨大的投资机会和利润空间。”对于高速成长的中国资本市场来说,必然存在大量的不确定因素,也确实造成了巨大的投资机会和利润空间,但是由于深入其中的人难以把握,往往机会变成陷阱,许多投资人经常会被不确定性因素搞得焦头烂额。2008年更是甚之。     

养老基金的社会责任投资

社会责任投资(SR I)作为一种全新的投资理念,将社会、环境、人权等因素纳入融资标准。在倡导可持续性发展的今天,面对金融市场的种种不确定性因素,将这一理念引入到养老基金的投资决策中,无论从理论或实践的角度,都具有深远意义。本文从基本概念入手,考察了社会责任投资的发展轨迹,并从理论角度对其先进性和有效性进行探讨,进而分析了将SR I引入到养老基金投资中的可行性,最后结合国际经验和我国现实,提出了中国养老基金社会责任投资的政策建议。     

外商直接投资对我国金融安全的影响

随着外商直接投资规模膨胀和不确定性增强，国家金融安全问题日益显著。外商直接投资的大量流入给我国的金融市场以及国民经济秩序都会带来的很大的冲击。我国虽然至今没有发生金融危机，但随着我国资本市场的逐步开放，金融体系和金融市场逐渐与世界接轨，我国的金融风险在显著增大。因此，对外商直接投资与金融安全关系的分析，以及对中国目前由于外商直接投资而导致的金融风险及其防范措施进行研究，都具有巨大的理论与现实意义。     

不确定性、股权激励与非效率投资

文章在考察环境不确定性对上市公司投资行为影响的基础上,分析了股权激励计划对这一相关关系的影响机制和作用效果,结果发现:企业所面临的环境不确定性会降低企业投资效率,导致过度投资或投资不足。而股权激励措施对不确定环境引起的管理者非效率投资行为有抑制作用。本文研究结果表明,股权激励制度有助于减少环境不确定性导致的代理矛盾,抑制过度投资,也有助于降低企业管理者风险的厌恶程度,缓解投资不足。     

国际直接投资理论的发展与我国的对外投资

在十九世纪国际直接投资理论就已经提出来了，我国在改革开放以后，才开始研究该理论，主要目的是为了充分的认识我国的对外投资以及外商投资之间的关系，使这两者的关系更加的符合我国的产业结构。而且在我国成为WTO一员后，与其他国家进行对外贸易的频率是越来越多，因此研究国际直接投资理论是非常重要的。     

经济政策不确定性对企业投资的影响分析

本文以中国经济政策的不确定性指数为基准,研究经济政策的不确定性对企业投资支出的影响,研究结果表明,一旦经济政策的不确定性越高,企业投资就越少,所以表政策环境对企业投资有很大的影响,政策因素的变化与调查过上市公司的投资有决定性的变化,所以说明经济环境的变化对企业投资影响很大.     

Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles

We document cycles in corporate investment corresponding with the timing of national elections around the world. During election years, firms reduce investment expenditures by an average of 4.8% relative to nonelection years, controlling for growth opportunities and economic conditions. The magnitude of the investment cycles varies with different country and election characteristics. We investigate several potential explanations and find evidence supporting the hypothesis that political uncertainty leads firms to reduce investment expenditures until the electoral uncertainty is resolved. These findings suggest that political uncertainty is an important channel through which the political process affects real economic outcomes.     

Irreversibility,Uncertainty and Housing Investment

Housing represents a form of “irreversible” investment. Theoretically, increased uncertainty should lower housing investment. Empirically, finding a proxy for uncertainty has proven problematic. Some recent papers have investigated the effect of uncertainty on real estate investment, with varying proxies for uncertainty and mixed results. This paper employs a technique used in modern macroeconomic studies, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean model, which has been shown to correspond as closely as any known measure to theoretical concepts of uncertainty. Results indicate that uncertainty indeed has a negative impact on housing starts.     

Investment,idiosyncratic risk,and growth options

We provide evidence that growth options play an important role in determining the negative relation between corporate investment and idiosyncratic risk in the absence of agency problem. A simple real options model predicts that the negative relation between corporate investment and idiosyncratic risk is a U-shaped function of the level of idiosyncratic risk: investment responds the most when idiosyncratic risk is at the intermediate level. And the negative relation is stronger when firms possess more growth options. Our results are robust when we control for the effect of managerial risk aversion, supporting the view that firms’ optimal response to uncertainty is an important driving force behind the negative investment–idiosyncratic risk relation.     

Tax Rate Uncertainty, Investment Decisions, and Tax Neutrality

This article deals with the effects of tax rate uncertainty (TRU) on individual investment behavior. We show that under risk neutrality as well as under risk aversion, increased TRU has an ambiguous impact on investment, depending on the investment project's structure of cash flows and depreciation deductions. Although the investment effects are small the popular view that tax policy uncertainty depresses real investment is rejected. Further, tax neutrality in the light of tax policy uncertainty is defined more precisely. Neutrality results for the Johansson-Samuelson tax and the cash flow tax that are known from certainty are confirmed under TRU.     

Does external uncertainty matter in corporate sustainability performance?

Motivated by the prevalence of corporate sustainability and the rise of uncertainty at the national level, we investigate the impact of three sources of uncertainty; namely, economic policy, climate change, and political instability, on firms' sustainability performance. Using a sample of 6804 firms from 72 countries spanning 15 years, our study revealed that uncertainty due to climate change, economic policy, and political instability negatively affects firms' sustainability performance. This finding is in line with the real options theory that uncertainty in an external environment discourages firms' long-term investment (e.g. investment in corporate sustainability). In addition, the results show that the option for delay in sustainability investment moderated the relation between uncertainty at the national level and firms' sustainability performance. Firms with better sustainability performance had higher firm value when facing uncertainty. Interestingly, firms with higher profitability performed better in sustainability when facing uncertainty at the national level.     

基于契约理论的企业投资有效纳税筹划

运用税收契约理论,通过合作契约形成企业间合作模式、调整投资方式降低不确定性情形下税负等纳税筹划措施,企业可以在投资决策中进行有效的纳税筹划,实现股东财富最大化的目标。     

Optimal Leverage in Real Estate Investment

This article is a theoretical examination of optimal financial leverage for real estate investment in the presence of uncertainty. The main result shows that uncertainty creates the possibility that a borrower will default on a real estate loan and that this possibility is the underlying factor in optimal leverage calculations for both borrower and lender.     

ESG投资能够促进银行创造流动性吗?——兼论经济政策不确定性的调节效应

当前在我国致力于实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标的大背景下,银行能否通过ESG投资促进流动性创造,进而推动高质量发展具有重大战略意义。本文利用2009年第一季度至2020年第二季度中国36家上市银行的面板数据,实证分析ESG投资对银行流动性创造的影响,并将其置于经济政策不确定性条件下予以讨论。研究发现:第一,ESG投资整体上促进流动性创造,表现为对资产端和负债端流动性创造的促进作用,以及对表外流动性创造的抑制作用。从ESG投资结构看,环境保护投资和社会责任投资均抑制流动性创造,而公司治理投资则促进流动性创造。异质性分析表明,地方性银行和资本短缺银行的ESG投资对流动性创造具有更强的促进作用。第二,中介机制分析发现,ESG投资主要通过“盈利”和“风险”渠道促进流动性创造。第三,在经济政策不确定性上升时期,ESG投资对流动性创造的促进作用更加显著。从ESG投资分项看,经济政策不确定性会增强环境保护投资和社会责任投资对流动性创造的抑制作用,以及公司治理投资对流动性创造的促进作用。本文结论为充分发挥ESG投资作用并以此推动高质量发展提供了政策启示。     

Investment, Uncertainty, and Liquidity

We analyze the dynamic investment decision of a firm subject to an endogenous financing constraint. The threat of future funding shortfalls lowers the value of the firm's timing options and encourages acceleration of investment beyond the first‐best optimal level. As well as highlighting another way by which capital market frictions can distort investment behavior, this result implies that (1) the sensitivity of investment to cash flow can be greatest for high‐liquidity firms and (2) greater uncertainty has an ambiguous effect on investment.     

Cash Flow Immediacy and the Value of Investment Timing

In a model with stochastic interest rates, irreversible investment, and two investment dates, the value of investment delay has two components: the expected gain from committing now to investment at a future date and the potential gain from the ability to reverse this commitment. Holding net present value constant, we show that the values of both these components are increasing in the proportion of project cash flows that accrue in the more distant future. Our results emphasize the importance of the interaction between cash flow immediacy and interest rate uncertainty for the optimal investment policy.