Dynamic factor demand equations in U.S. and Canadian agriculture

This research provides one of the first empirical estimates of a data-based dynamic factor demand model for American and Canadian agriculture. Models such as these deserve more widespread use in the empirical analysis of agriculture. These models have the advantage that they do not impose inappropriate dynamics on the data. Rather they permit the data to select the appropriate dynamics. We use a model originally developed by Anderson and Blundell. This model is a general first-order dynamic model which contains as testable hypothesis several simpler models. This model permits us to estimate the long-run agricultural production structure as a subset of the dynamic parameter estimates. We will test this long-run structure for symmetry, homotheticity and neutral technical change. The estimated models may be used to test for three alternative dynamic structures. In the limit, dynamics may not be needed and we can test for the static long-run equilibrium model. Two intermediate cases are the autoregressive and the partial adjustment models which are simpler than the general model but still include dynamics. Our results suggest that the long-run equilibrium model is unsatisfactory in both countries. A dynamic model is needed. In both countries, the two more restricted dynamic models are rejected. The general dynamic model is required. In Canada, the long-run equilibrium structure is homothetic with neutral technical change. In the United States, homotheticity is also accepted but neutral technical change is rejected.     

Agricultural Trade Liberalization in a Multi-sector World Model

Impacts of agricultural and nonagricultural trade liberalization on agriculture are assessed in a multi-commodity, multi-country framework. By modeling simultaneously all goods sectors of the economy, we evaluate the importance of: (a) relative price changes between sectors, and (b) income and exchange-rate adjustments that follow trade liberalization in a world of floating rates. Specifically, we compare two cases using a static world policy simulation (SWOPSIM) model: agricultural multilateral liberalization and complete multilateral liberalization with floating exchange rates for all countries/regions. In both cases agricultural commodity prices tend to increase, an effect which is more pronounced when currency values adjust. The developing countries, in particular Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, have the most significant advances in agricultural and total production when exchange rates vary. Moreover, the gains from international trade are extended to all countries/regions explicitly specified in the model.     

A continuing evolution in U.S. agricultural and food policy - The 1990 Act

This paper reports the results of a study of the economic content and the decision-making process of the recently adopted U.S. 1990 agricultural and food policy. It is the most comprehensive policy of its type. It represents the broadest participation of private individuals and interests groups, and will affect the economy of not only the United States, but also the ***economies of trading countries around the world. The study examines the economic conditions leading up to the policy, a theoretical foundation of public policy determinants, the role of economic analysis in that policy development, the provisions of the Act compared with the previous policy, and its extensive economic implications. Results of the study support features of a conceptual framework for economic policy of a participatory government. The study also reveals the unique policy process of the United States and the provisions of its price and income policy for the food and agricultural sector. Finally, this article identifies the interrelations between the 1990 policy and on-going GATT negotiations, the emerging importance of environmental and food quality issues in agricultural and food policy, and sources for further study of this Act.     

The Potential for Cross‐Compliance in Canadian Agricultural Policy: Linking Environmental Goals with Business Risk Management Programs

Environmental cross‐compliance links agricultural program payments to producer commitments to achieve agri‐environmental policy goals. The objective of this study is to determine the feasibility of using cross‐compliance to achieve environmental goals in a Canadian policy context. While Canadian policy makers have flirted with cross‐compliance, with the exception of phosphorus regulations for Quebec hog farms, they have never adopted this approach. The potential for effective cross‐compliance depends on producer participation, producer compliance with regulations, environmental performance, and overall welfare implications. This study reviews the application of cross‐compliance in the United States and EU with regard to the potential application to Canadian agriculture. Policy options are considered which link current business risk management (BRM) programs to alternative environmental regulations (wildlife habitat preservation, nutrient management plans, and beneficial management practices for nutrient management). In general, individual Canadian agricultural support program do not provide sufficient incentives for farmers to participate in cross‐compliance. However, if support programs are combined, it is better to link programs that redistribute income with environmental programs than to link agriculture programs that already address specific market failures.     

Transition and agricultural labor

Reforms have strongly affected agricultural employment in transition countries but in remarkably different ways. We present a theoretical model and an empirical analysis to explain differences in labor adjustment during transition. We show that the differences are due to a combination of variations in initial conditions and differences in reform policies and effects. The removal of price distortions and subsidies caused wage and price adjustments during transition and a reduction in labor demand in agriculture. Surplus labor outflow from agriculture was further stimulated by the privatization of the farm assets as they improve incentives and remove constraints for optimal factor allocation and structural adjustment. The shift to individual farms, which was especially strong in labor‐intensive production systems with low labor productivity in agriculture, has reduced the outflow of labor from agriculture by improving farm governance and labor efficiency, although this effect was mitigated by losses in scale economies due to disruptions and market imperfections in transition. In general, labor outflow was considerably lower on individual farms than on corporate farms, due to a combination of factors related to human capital, access to finance, and physical capital. In the last section of the article we present a general framework for understanding labor adjustments in transition countries. Specifically, we show that there are several patterns of labor transition. In one pattern, followed by, e.g., the Czech Republic and Hungary, there is initially a strong survival of the restructured large‐scale corporate farms that have laid off many workers. In the second phase of transition, gradually the importance of individual farms increases. In other countries, such as Romania, the opposite has happened. In these countries there is an immediate strong shift to individual farms, while labor use increases on average in agriculture. After this initial phase, the shift to individual farms continues, albeit more slowly, and labor use in agriculture starts to decline. Finally, our analysis shows that in countries such as Russia and Ukraine much of the surplus labor is still employed by little‐reformed former collective and state farms. Major adjustments await more progress in agricultural and general reforms.     

中国最贫困地区农民增收研究——以甘肃省“两州两市”为例

以甘肃省"两州两市"为例说明中国最贫困地区农民收入的基本情况,分析农业结构调整、农业自身发展、农村面貌改善、农民收入状况和社会事业发展对农民增收产生的影响。甘肃省"两州两市"实现农民增收,要将促进农民增收作为总体思路和发展目标,重点发展特色农业,发展旅游业和家庭服务业为重点的生活性服务业,发展劳务经济,提高农民素质,推进新农村建设。     

Technology,production environment,and household income: Assessing the regional impacts of technological change

This paper clarifies the factors determining the welfare effects of improved agricultural technologies when technology diffusion is unevenly distributed across production environments Household-level income effects are shown to depend primarily on: (a) whether the economy is open or closed with respect to world markets; (b) whether households are net consumers or net producers of the commodity for which technological change occurs; (c) whether households are adopters or non-adopters of the new technology; (d) the degree to which labor is mobile across agricultural regions; and (e) government intervention in commodity and/or factor markets. A review of recent empirical work indicates considerable variation in the relative strength of these various factors across countries, and that assumptions regarding the mechanism by which commodity prices are determined – endogenously as in a closed economy, or exogenously as in an open economy – is especially critical.     

小农经营、功能转换与策略选择——兼论小农户与现代农业融合发展的“第三条道路”

基于大国小农的基本国情,正确处理小农经济与现代农业发展的关系,实现小农户与现代农业发展的有机衔接,是中国探索农业现代化道路所长期面临的重大问题。本文试图厘清小农经济与现代农业发展的经济学含义,分析传统农业与现代农业"两分法"的可能性缺陷,由此揭示农业多功能拓展态势下农户经营及其转型的可能性图景;进而在把握家庭经营全球性趋势的基础上,构建小农经营及其转型发展的逻辑线索,重点阐明中国小农户与现代农业融合发展的第三条道路。文章认为,与美国农户大规模经营及其自我服务、日本农户小规模经营及其生产性服务内卷化不同,中国小农户与现代农业发展有机衔接的关键是农业服务的社会化,并由此将小农经营卷入分工经济。     

SIMULATED MARKETS,FARM STRUCTURE,AND AGRICULTURAL POLICIES*

In this investigation estimated relationships of resource markets for United States agriculture are used in a simulation model to study resource demand and farm income under three conditions: (a) those actually prevailing, including the historic mix of agricultural policies, (b) with technical change in agriculture only half the rate realized, and (c) with a free market. The results indicate that compared with “actual” conditions the environment of slow technical change would have modest effects in slowing the demand for farm machinery and the migration of labor from agriculture. It also would result in greater net farm income in the 1960's. A free market would be accompanied by increased investment in farm machinery and a greater exodus of family and hired labor from agriculture. It also would result in a smaller farm building investment and a considerable reduction of farm income. Since economic conditions are so similar in both countries, the implications of these findings are related to Canadian agriculture on the assumption the same model would show the same outcomes for Canada. Dans cette étude, des rapports estimés des marchés des ressources pour ?agriculture des Etats-Uns sont employés dans un modéle de simulation afin ?étudier la demande des ressources et le revenu agricol net sous trois conditions: (a) celle qui régne réellement, incluant le mélange historique de politiques agricoles; (b) celle qui ne montre le changement technique de ?agriculture qti à la moitié du train realise; et (c) celle qui profite ?un marché libre. Les résultats indiquent que ?enrironnement du changement technique modéré, quand il est compareé avec les conditions réelles, produirait des effets modestes en diminuant la demande pour des machines agricoles et en ralentissant ?exode de la main-?oeuvre de ?agriculture. En outre, cet environment aurait pour résultat un revenu agricole net plus fort dans les années de 1060 à 1970. Vne marché libre serait accompangne de placements augmentés dans les machines agricoles et ?un plus grand exode de la main ?oeuvre familiale et salariée de ?agriculture. Aussi, ceci aboutirait à un investissement moindre dans la construction rurale et à une réduction considérable du revenu agricole. Puisque les conditions économiques des deux pays sont si ressemblantes, les implications de ces conclusions sont rattachées à?agriculture cana-dienne en supposant que le même modéle montrerait les mêmes résultats pour le Canada.     

Pathways out of poverty in lagging regions: evidence from rural western China

How to reduce poverty in lagging regions remains much debated and underserved with solid empirical evidence. This study illustrates an empirical methodology to analyze the pathways households followed out of poverty and to explore their potential in the future using 2000–2004 rural household panel data from two lagging provinces of China, Inner Mongolia and Gansu. It finds that rising labor productivity in agriculture has been key in understanding poverty reduction in rural lagging areas of these provinces and that it still holds much promise. Circular migration has also been important in Gansu, though less so in Inner Mongolia. On average, rural diversification has not proven to contribute much to poverty reduction and income transfers and agricultural tax abolishment have only helped at the margin. The findings from these two case studies highlight that the scope for reducing poverty in rural lagging regions can still be substantial in agriculture, also when nonagriculture drives national growth.     

我国农业产业集聚度比较分析及区划研究

目的 我国农业处于由传统农业向现代化转型的关键时期,探究农业产业集聚状况及空间布局,对不断优化产业布局,提高农村经济发展水平具有重要的现实意义,将有利于推动农业现代化的发展进程。方法 文章基于2009—2018年我国31个省（市、自治区）第一产业生产总值及就业人数的统计数据,采用区位熵模型探究各地区农业产业发展的集聚度,并通过竞争态模型进一步对农业产业发展的集聚度竞争态进行了区划分析。结果 （1）我国农业产值集聚竞争态势呈现地区间分布不平衡,空间差异比较明显的特点。（2）进行划区分析表明,东北三省、西北地区及河北、山东和广西、海南、贵州为优势区域;山西、天津和广东为具有竞争潜力的区域;上海、浙江、江苏和福建等东部沿海省（市）及北京和重庆为劣势区域;安徽、江西、河南、湖北和湖南以及四川、云南和西藏等8个省（自治区）为实力区域。结论 大部分地区处于农业竞争优势区域,农业仍然是我国大部分地区的优势产业。为进一步推动农业的增产增效,对于具备农业产业发展优势的地区应进一步突出产业集聚特点,并不断扩大辐射范围,带动周围地区农业的发展。     

Agriculture in transition economies: from common heritage to divergence

The 23 former socialist countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) started the transition in 1989–1990 from a common institutional and organizational heritage, represented by the Soviet agricultural model. Despite the common heritage in agriculture, the reform policies in CEE and CIS diverged from the start, as significant differences emerged between the two groups of countries in legal attitudes to private land ownership, transferability of land, the extent of agricultural privatization and individualization, and restructuring of farms. This divergence in the implementation of agricultural reform has led to divergence in standard development measures: the CEE countries are outperforming the CIS countries by growth in GDP and agricultural product since 1992; the productivity of agricultural labor in CEE is generally increasing, and in CIS it is decreasing. While the CIS countries at best can be characterized as reluctant reformers, the CEE countries have achieved significantly higher levels of economic and institutional reform. Better performance in CEE is associated with greater readiness of the governments in these countries to implement a comprehensive package of economic and social reform policies, including more radical land reform and deeper individualization and restructuring of agriculture.     

Micro insights on the pathways to agricultural transformation: Comparative evidence from Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

Most studies of agricultural transformation document the impact of agricultural income growth on macroeconomic indicators of development. Much less is known about the micro-scale changes within the farming sector that signal a transformation precipitated by agricultural income growth. This study provides a comparative analysis of the patterns of micro-level changes that occur among small-holder farmers in Uganda and Malawi in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and Thailand and Vietnam in Southeast Asia (SEA). Our analysis provides several important insights on agricultural transformation in these two regions. First, agricultural income in all examined countries is vulnerable to changes in precipitation and temperature, an effect that is nonlinear and asymmetric. SSA countries are more vulnerable to these weather changes. Second, exogenous increases in agricultural income in previous years improve non-farm income and trigger a change in labor allocation within the rural sector in SEA. However, this is the opposite in SSA where the increase in agricultural income reduces non-farm income, indicating a substitution effect between farm and non-farm sectors. These findings reveal clear agricultural transformation driven by agricultural income in SEA but no similar evidence in SSA.     

The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets

Short‐run responses of export and domestic shares of total agricultural output to changes in stocks of domestic savings (SAV), development assistance (ODA), private foreign commercial capital (PFX) and other variables is investigated. A profit function approach is used. Time series data for 19 sub‐Saharan African countries are pooled into three panels using similarities in changes in economic policy regime. Statistical evidence suggests that for the panel of countries that were undertaking liberalized economic reforms, the slope coefficients of some of the variables in the models have changed significantly between 1970–1980 and 1981–1993. For the 1981–1993 period, the impacts of ODA, PFX and SAV on export and domestic shares were different for this panel. The effect of increases in agricultural labor was different across the three panels. There is also evidence that productivity growth in the export agriculture sub‐sector is negative in all the groups. It is recommended that to halt the decline in export share of agricultural output in the group of countries that have undertaken substantial improvements in economic policy environment, efforts must be made to reduce the negative impact of domestic savings and agricultural labor, while at the same time working to reduce the bias of development assistance against food security.     

A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis of U.S.–Canadian Disputes on the World Softwood Lumber Market

This paper utilizes a world spatial equilibrium model to examine the effects of U.S.–Canadian softwood lumber disputes on U.S., Canadian, and other exporters' and importers' lumber markets. Results show that the U.S. import tariff on Canadian softwood lumber impacts prices, supply, demand and trade flows not only in the United States and Canada but also in the other countries. Though the goal of U.S. trade restriction is to limit imports from Canada and protect its producers, the United States cannot fully accomplish this goal as non-Canadian exporters fill the void left by the reduced imports from Canada. Canadian producers lose from the U.S. policy, but their loss is mitigated as Canada redirects its exports to other importers. Importing countries such as Japan and the European Union benefit from the U.S. trade restrictions as Canada seeks to sell its softwood lumber to these countries.     

Long run agricultural land expansion,booms and busts

Agricultural land expansion is a prominent feature in today’s developing countries. It is associated with a structural pattern of land use in many remote land-abundant regions where large-scale commercial primary product activities coexist with increased concentration of smallholders in more marginal areas. The result may be boom-bust cycles of development. If these phenomena are widespread across developing countries, then long-run expansion of agricultural land could be associated with lower levels of real income per capita, which may also fluctuate with prolonged expansion. A panel analysis conducted over 1961–2015 for 98 developing economies fails to reject this hypothesis. Policies should aim to decouple socio-economic gains through agricultural development from continued land expansion, and greater investments are needed to support smallholder agriculture, land distribution and livelihoods in these areas.     

Induced innovation and spillover effects of US and Canadian research expenditures in Canadian agriculture

This study examines the induced innovation hypothesis (IIH) from 1958 to 2015 for two Canadian agriculture regions: Central Canada (the provinces of Ontario and Quebec) and Western Canada (the provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba). There is broadly consistent support for the IIH for Canadian agriculture, especially for Western Canadian agriculture. In addition, there is support for the notion that US, as well as Canadian, research expenditures are important to explain changes in the input ratio in Canadian agriculture in the long run. This indicates the existence of spillover effects from US agricultural research expenditures to Canadian agriculture.     

农业高质量发展评价指标体系研究——基于鲁苏浙3省的比较分析

[目的]作为国民经济高质量发展重要基础的农业高质量发展不仅是我国转变农业发展方式的根本要求,也是今后实现农业农村现代化的关键路径。文章通过对农业高质量发展评价理论和实证研究,设计一套农业高质量发展评价指标体系,可以用于对国家（省市）或地区的农业高质量发展水平进行评价,以便引领和指导评价对象的农业高质量更好地发展。[方法]在对农业高质量发展含义及主要内容界定的基础上,采用综合评价方法设计了包含两级25个指标的农业高质量发展评价指标体系,创新性地以德尔菲法和熵值法分别确定评价指标体系各层次指标的权重,以两者的平均值作为评价指标体系各层次指标的最终权重,构建了农业高质量发展指数。[结果]选取鲁苏浙3个发达省份为研究对象,以农业高质量发展指数为工具,比较分析了2018年鲁苏浙3省农业高质量发展状况,3省农业高质量发展指数分别为0.36、0.34和0.38。[结论]研究设计的农业高质量发展指数是科学合理的,建议以该指数为工具开展区域农业高质量发展的监测工作,同时根据测评对象的变化动态修正该指数的基础指标,以便更好地引领和指导特定地域农业高质量发展实践。     

Biased Technological Change and Factor Demand in Postwar Japanese Agriculture, 1958-84

The objective of this study is to gain a better understanding of factor substitutions in postwar Japanese agriculture by shedding special light on biased technological change. Such biased technological change is first measured, then associated with the movements of factor prices, and then tested for the Hicksian induced-innovation hypothesis. In addition, a decomposition analysis is carried out in order to quantitatively examine the importance of the biased effects for determining changes in factor-cost shares and factor proportions during the 1958-84 period. A slightly modified Stevenson-Greene model of the translog cost function is employed. This model has at least two important advantages over ordinary translog cost functions. First, it incorporates time into the model such that all coefficients of the ordinary translog cost function may change over time. This is more realistic than the ordinary translog cost function which assumes that all coefficients are constant over the period of estimation. Another attractive feature is that it enables us to test the induced-innovation hypothesis directly. The model is applied to the 1958-84 period by making use of farm-level data. The results show that technological change was biased towards saving labor and other inputs and using machinery, intermediate inputs, and land. This biased technological change is found to be, in principle, consistent with the induced-innovation hypothesis. Furthermore, it is shown through decomposition analyses that the biased technological change had significant impacts on changes in factor-cost shares and factor proportions during these years. The empirical results of this study imply that technological change in Japanese agriculture has, in general, proceeded in a manner consistent with factor endowments conditions since the late 1950s. An implication of this study for agriculture in less-developed countries is that agricultural policies seeking development through technological progress should be carried out so as to take advantage of peculiar factor endowments conditions in the individual countries.     

北京市观光农业发展与农村经济增长关联性分析

[目的]观光农业旅游是一种重要的民生产业和消费形态,其将发展休闲农业和农业旅游相结合。文章通过深入研究其对农村经济带来的影响,以期能明确其在北京市农村经济发展中的重要地位,从而为有效发挥农业生产、促进农业资源合理利用、改善农村生态环境、提高农民经济收入、带动农村发展等方面起到积极的推动作用。[方法]先后采用相关性分析法、主成分分析法,分别对北京市在发展观光农业旅游对农村经济影响的评价指标进行分析,以确定观光农业对农村经济发展的影响程度。[结果]相关性分析表明,经济资源指标与经济效益指标间相互正相关。其中,土地资源、资金资源与GDP、财政税收、居民收入均显著相关,劳动力资源与就业也呈显著相关关系,各指标对农村经济影响巨大。而主成分分析研究认为,土地资源、资金资源、就业和居民收入在各主成分中载荷较大,从不同角度反映了观光农业旅游对农村经济的影响,其影响较为深远。[结论]北京市观光农业对当地农村经济的发展起着至关重要的作用,而合理、健康的发展适合自己的观光农业旅游,对推动农村经济的发展有着积极的作用。