我国财政与货币政策协调问题研究

针对当前“稳增长”与“稳杠杆”的双重目标，本文构建了一个包含财政、货币政 策四种规则的新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡分析框架，利用我国1995—2016年间的数据进行 估计，然后从平滑机制和联动机制两个层面探讨财政货币政策如何配合问题。研究发现，从平 滑机制看，财政货币政策需要各自加强相机调节力度，从联动机制看，利率需要对税收冲击负 向响应，而政府支出需要对货币供给冲击正向响应。研究表明，与现行政策范式相比，政策搭 配优化后的调控效果较好。     

产业政策与信贷资金配置效率

基于上市公司逐笔银行贷款合约数据,本文考察了产业政策对信贷资金配置效率的影响。研究发现,当上市公司处于国家产业政策支持的行业时,公司所拥有的政企关系对银行贷款合约制定的积极作用会更大,全要素生产率对银行贷款合约制定的积极作用会更小,基于分省产业政策以及上市公司全部贷款数据的分析进一步确认了上述结论。从影响因素来看,当上市公司为国有企业、所在省份固定资产投资增速越高、法治环境越差时,产业政策的影响会越明显。本文的证据表明,通过加强法治建设、为不同所有制企业提供公平的竞争环境、改善产业政策的制定与实施,能够提升产业政策指导下的信贷资金配置效率。     

Representative Interest Rate Scenarios

Abstract

This paper suggests a possible flexible solution to the time and resource problems of running a large number of stochastic interest rate scenarios, that is, selecting a representative subset. Each interest rate scenario consists of 30 future spot yield curves, in which 12 points are specified on each curve. The distribution of the scenarios is approximated by the subset, and each scenario in the subset has equal weight. The method is independent of the interest rate generator used. Modeling research may be more similar to experimental or laboratory science than to a mathematical science. This paper presents a new tool to evaluate.     

Real options with unknown-date events

The real options literature has provided new insights on how to manage irreversible capital investments whose payoffs are uncertain. Two of the most important predictions from such theory are: (i) greater risk delays a firm’s investment timing, and (ii) greater risk increases the option value of waiting. This paper challenges such conclusions in a setting in which the relevant random variable is the arrival time of an unfavorable event. In particular, we model situations in which a firm must choose the time at which to invest in a project whose profit grows at a known rate until a random date is reached and decays thereafter, which may be representative of stochastic product or industry life cycles. This is a novel framework in which a firm can update its beliefs about the profitability of an investment opportunity by simply waiting to invest. Thus, a wait-and-see approach allows the firm to capitalize on favorable market evolutions and avoid adverse ones to some extent. Our framework is simple and does not require using stochastic calculus, which allows for an economic interpretation of optimal investment policies for the cases of one-time and sequential investments.     

Reforms necessary if eastern enlargement of the EU is to be financed

Conclusion The scenarios delineate a framework within which the financial consequences of eastern enlargement move against the background of more or less far-reaching reforms of internal EU policies. They clearly indicate that enlargement need not come to grief on the costs associated with it. The burden imposed on the budget can be kept within reasonable bounds given changes in internal EU policies that should be implemented in any case. If these policies are not modified, the analysis shows that structural policy is a more serious obstacle to accession than agricultural policy. If the capability of a national economy to absorb transfers efficiently is taken into account by introducing a fixed ceiling on EU support as a proportion of GDP, it would make a decisive contribution towards facilitating eastern enlargement. Irrespective of enlargement it is vital that further progress is made with agricultural policy reform. Agricultural policy remains the most important item of spending in the EU (15) budget. It is only here that the—inevitably substantial—resources required for eastern enlargement can be freed up.     

Industry policy,cross-region investment,and enterprise investment efficiency

The introduction of industry policies creates a non-market-oriented policy arbitrage space, which in turn triggers enterprises to adopt "strategic" investments to obtain government policy preferences, which may induce irrational over-investment behaviors and even lead to long-term investment inefficiencies. For an empirical study of the impact of industry policy for the cross-region enterprise investment in specific locations, we manually collected information on industry policy in various regions, as well as data on the establishment of subsidiaries of Chinese listed companies from 2006 to 2019.The results show that enterprises are more likely to invest in regions supported by industry policies. If the enterprise's location is not supported by policies, the impact of this policy "gap" will be strengthened. We find that the higher the level of finance in the region where the enterprise is located, the greater the possibility of the enterprise's cross-region investment. Our research also shows that private enterprise has more substantial incentives to engage in "policy arbitrage", and state-owned enterprises are less affected. In china, a lot of enterprises in regions with high returns on capital have been investing in regions with low returns has increased. However, the increased intensity of investment in low-return regions will significantly inhibit the production efficiency of these enterprises. Our findings help clarify the effect of public policies on the enterprise's investment behavior and efficiency, which enriches the research on the impact of government macroeconomic policies on enterprise micro decision-making. We believe that, when promoting regional industrial upgrades through industry policies, it is necessary to guide enterprises to follow market rules to make market-oriented investments.     

货币政策区域效应差异化研究——基于韶关与惠州的比较

对货币政策区域效应差异化进行研究,有利于增强货币政策执行的灵活性以及金融资源的区域优化配置。通过对广东韶关市与惠州市两地区的货币政策影响进行实证研究表明,两个地区的货币政策存在较为显著的时滞效应。为此,应制定有差别的货币政策,培育地区特色主导产业,健全和完善货币政策传导机制。     

Die Rolle der Versicherungsvermittler beim Versicherungsbetrug – experimentelle Ergebnisse

The GDV estimates the amount of insurance fraud across Germany to be € 4 billion per year. This work examines, using experimental approach, the role of insurance agents in insurance fraud. This research shows that fraud behavior is not only dependent on economic motives even though these can make financial sense for the agent. Different crime detection rates and reward scenarios do not lead to any significant differences in behavior. If the insurance agent, however, completed an apprenticeship in the insurance sector, then this agent generally has a lower willingness to support the customer when committing insurance fraud. Against this, specifically men (as a research category) and holders of several policies tend to be more susceptible to support customers in insurance fraud.     

Understanding the Death Benefit Switch Option in Universal Life Policies

Universal life policies are the most popular insurance contract design in the United States. They provide either a level death benefit paying a fixed face amount or an increasing death benefit paying a fixed benefit plus the available cash value, and both types include the option to switch from one type to the other. In this article, we investigate the fact that—unlike a switch from level to increasing—a switch from an increasing death benefit to a level death benefit requires neither fees nor evidence of insurability. To assess the impact of the death benefit switch option, we develop a model framework of an increasing universal life insurance policy embedding this option. Consideration of heterogeneity with respect to mortality via a stochastic differential mortality factor enables an investigation of adverse exercise behavior. In a comprehensive simulation analysis, we quantify the net present value of the option from the insurer's perspective using risk‐neutral valuation under stochastic interest rates assuming empirical exercise probabilities. Based on our results, we provide policy recommendations for life insurers.     

Kongruente Rückdeckung von Pensionszusagen durch Versicherungsprodukte

When a German employer establishes a defined benefit pension plan for his employees, it is common practice in Germany to purchase life insurance policies in order to finance the plan and transfer the risks from the plan to the insurer. A complete transfer of risk can only be obtained by purchasing a congruent insurance policy. The present paper develops a formal definition of congruence of an insurance policy to a pension plan. The definition is applied to a simple practical example. It becomes clear that it is almost impossible to obtain congruence of a traditional German life insurance product to an employer's defined benefit pension plan.     

Interest rate linkages within the EMS and bank credit supply

The exchange rates between the currencies of European Monetary System (EMS) members are essentially fixed between narrow bands mandated by the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). the intent of such a fixed rate regime is to enhance policy co-ordination within the EMS. However, it has instead led to German policy dominance within the system according to several recent studies. We examine the optimal dynamic credit policy of a bank in an EMS country that is subject to such German ‘dominance’. Our stochastic control model reveals conditions under which German monetary policies can influence domestic bank lending behaviour. It also suggests that banks may be able to hedge such risk exposure by increasing in size. the model offers ‘credit supply' based explanations for recent regulatory reforms in Europe towards unified banking and the attempts of several EMS members to de-link their policies from that of the German Bundesbank.     

经济政策不确定性与企业贷款成本

基于大样本微观银行信贷数据,本文研究经济政策不确定性对企业的银行贷款成本的影响。研究发现,经济政策不确定性升高导致企业的银行贷款成本增加,且使得在中小型银行贷款的企业成本增加更多。异质性分析表明,经济政策不确定性升高对受政策因素影响较大的企业如小微企业、私营企业等的银行贷款成本的影响更为明显。进一步,对企业的银行贷款违约风险的研究发现,随着经济政策不确定性升高,企业的银行贷款违约风险反而降低。这表明,经济政策不确定性升高使得银行选择风险评级更低的贷款,符合谨慎性动机。本文研究结论表明,经济政策不确定性升高时,银行“自我保险”动机的增强使得企业的银行贷款成本增加,这在中小型银行中表现得更加明显,同时也更多地转嫁给中小企业。本文为经济政策不确定性对企业投资、宏观经济波动等的研究提供了微观解释机制,并揭示了政府经济政策的一致性、稳定性对维护金融稳定的重要作用。     

Regression-based Monte Carlo methods for stochastic control models: variable annuities with lifelong guarantees

We present regression-based Monte Carlo simulation algorithm for solving the stochastic control models associated with pricing and hedging of the guaranteed lifelong withdrawal benefit (GLWB) in variable annuities, where the dynamics of the underlying fund value is assumed to evolve according to the stochastic volatility model. The GLWB offers a lifelong withdrawal benefit, even when the policy account value becomes zero, while the policyholder remains alive. Upon death, the remaining account value will be paid to the beneficiary as a death benefit. The bang-bang control strategy analysed under the assumption of maximization of the policyholder’s expected cash flow reduces the strategy space of optimal withdrawal policies to three choices: zero withdrawal, withdrawal at the contractual amount or complete surrender. The impact on the GLWB value under various withdrawal behaviours of the policyholder is examined. We also analyse the pricing properties of GLWB subject to different model parameter values and structural features.     

Clustering technique for risk classification and prediction of claim costs in the automobile insurance industry

This paper considers the problem of predicting claim costs in the automobile insurance industry. The first stage involves classifying policy holders according to their perceived risk, followed by modelling the claim costs within each risk group. Two methods are compared for the risk classification stage: a data‐driven approach based on hierarchical clustering, and a previously published heuristic method that groups policy holders according to pre‐defined factors. Regression is used to model the expected claim costs within a risk group. A case study is presented utilizing real data, and both risk classification methods are compared according to a variety of accuracy measures. The results of the case study show the benefits of employing a data‐driven approach. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical Approach to Asset Pricing Models with Stochastic Differential Utility

In this paper employing two heuristic numerical schemes, we study the asset pricing models with stochastic differential utility (SDU), which is formulated by either of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) or forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs).The first scheme is based upon a traditional lattice algorithm of option pricing theories, involving the discretization scheme of coupled FBSDEs, which is combined with a technique of solving numerically a certain type of nonlinear equations with respect to the backward state variables. The second one is based upon the four step scheme of Ma et al. (1994) which solves quasi-linear partial differential equations associated with the FBSDEs. We demonstrate that our practical implementation algorithms can successfully solve the asset pricing models with generalized SDU and the large investor problem with market impact which are typical examples such that the usual four step scheme is difficult to implement. As other numerical applications we study the optimal consumption and investment policies of a representative agent with SDU, and the recoverability of preferences and beliefs from observed consumption data.     

Forecasting Chinese GDP Using Online Data

Because big data are widely used today, whether and how to use big data in macroeconomic forecasting has become a new field of economic research. In macroeconomic analyses, two types of data can be applied, namely, structured data and unstructured information. Statistical government data are well-structured, whereas Internet search behavior information, which is representative of online data, is unstructured. This article explores whether Internet search behavior information can facilitate the forecasting of macroeconomic aggregates and components and analyzes the use of feasible methods of structured data and unstructured information. This study is based on the macroeconomic forecasting model and verifies the effect of the two-step method. We find that Internet search behavior information can help forecast the macro economy, and we determine that the best method for variable selection using structured and unstructured data is the two-step method. First, only statistical government data are used, and temporary optimal models are selected. Second, Internet search behavior information are added to these models, and the optimal model is then determined.     

Stochastic correlation across international stock markets

This paper examines the correlation across a number of international stock market indices. As correlation is not observable, we assume it to be a latent variable whose dynamics must be estimated using data on observables. To do so, we use filtering methods to extract stochastic correlation from returns data. We find evidence that the estimated correlation structure is dynamically changing over time. We also investigate the link between stochastic correlation and volatility. In general, stochastic correlation tends to increase in response to higher volatility but the effect is by no means consistent. These results have important implications for portfolio theory as well as risk management.     

Mexico’s low carbon futures: An integrated assessment for energy planning and climate change mitigation by 2050

This paper shows an integrated assessment for energy planning and climate change mitigation in Mexico, as an international case study. The Mexico 2050 Calculator was used to run a number of low carbon future scenarios by 2050. The calculator consists of a whole-systems model, which combines the main sectors of the Mexican economy into a single visual tool. By integrating energy and carbon dynamics across all sectors and carrying out a sensitivity analysis of the entire model, we compare four low carbon energy scenarios to assess current energy policy strategies in the country. The methodology proposed in this paper can also be applied to any other nation, particularly to those with similar models already available. Our findings show the relative impact of each sector and their various interactions for achieving Mexico’s ratified climate commitments. The paper also includes policy recommendations and highlights the need for scaling-up energy efficiency policy efforts in industry and transport, for having a higher focus on agricultural and land use policies, and for promoting integrated renewable energy policies.     

The territorial futures of Europe: ‘Trends’, ‘Competition’ or ‘Cohesion’

The ESPON 2006 scenario project generated three integrated roll-forward scenarios (A roll-forward scenario is a scenario in which the hypotheses define the parameters at the start of the covered time period and the scenario then explores the unfolding of events based on theses hypotheses. This is opposed to a roll-backward scenario in which the situation at the end of the time period is defined and the scenario then explores the path to reach this situation.). In the trend scenario renewed efforts are made for the Lisbon strategy, demanding extra investments in R&D and education. Regional policy will also be continued with vigour. In the Competition Scenario bold decisions are made regarding Europe's continued prosperity. The Lisbon strategy takes precedence over institutional reform and other sectoral policies. In the Cohesion Scenario Europe is confronted with the challenge of fully integrating the various regions in Europe. The budgets for Regional Policy and Rural Development Policy are enhanced and targeted to the most needy regions. The scenarios are described as stories about the future, supported by model calculations and visualised by various maps. They concentrate on urban and rural development and on territorial developments in different parts of Europe, like North-West Europe, the Alpine Space and Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, a proactive, roll-back scenario explores the possibilities to combine competitiveness, cohesion and sustainability. A message, derived from the scenarios, is that independent of the explored policy options the European territory will be confronted with large challenges like a (rapid) decline of fossil energy resources and increasing impacts of climate change. The scenarios appear particularly helpful in the context of the current paradigm shift in European regional policy from a policy for balance to a policy for aggregate growth.