Explaining the Small Employment Effects of the Minimum Wage in the United States

This paper reviews the most recent wave of research—roughly since 2000—on the employment effects of the U.S. minimum wage and concludes that the weight of evidence points to little or no employment response to modest increases. The paper then examines eleven possible adjustments to minimum‐wage increases that may explain why the measured employment effects are consistently small. Given the relatively low cost to employers of modest increases in the minimum wage, these adjustment mechanisms appear to be sufficient to avoid employment losses, even for employers with a large share of low‐wage workers.     

Temporary Help Work: Earnings,Wages, and Multiple Job Holding*

Temporary help services (THS) employment has been growing in size, particularly among disadvantaged workers. An extended policy debate focuses on the low earnings, limited benefits, and insecurity that such jobs appear to provide. We investigate the earnings and wage differentials observed between THS and other jobs in a sample of disadvantaged workers. We find lower quarterly earnings at THS jobs but a $1 per hour wage premium. We reconcile these findings in terms of the shorter duration and lower hours worked at THS jobs. We interpret the premium as a compensating wage differential.     

Living Wage Policies at the San Francisco Airport: Impacts on Workers and Businesses

This paper evaluates the costs, benefits and related impacts of living wage policies implemented at the San Francisco Airport (SFO). Unlike other living wage ordinances, the policies at SFO cover a large proportion of the low-wage labor force in a distinct labor market. The authors find that about 73 percent of the ground-based non-managerial workers at SFO received substantial wage increases as a direct or indirect result of the policies; the proportion of these workers earning under $10 per hour fell from 55 percent to 5 percent, significantly reducing earnings inequality. Other benefits to workers included enhanced health benefits and an arrest of declines in quality of life indices. The costs of the policies to employers amounted to an average of 0.7 percent of fare revenue, or $1.42 per airline passenger. We observe a series of dynamic adjustments that reduced those costs, including dramatically reduced turnover, improved worker morale and greater work effort. We find some limited evidence of worker-worker substitution, but no evidence of employment decline.     

Minimum Wage Impacts from a Prespecified Research Design: Canada 1981–1997

Neumark (2001 ) used the novel methodology of a prespecified research design to estimate the employment effect of minimum wage changes. We conducted our analysis in the “spirit” of this methodology based on Canadian data from 1981 to 1997. Our minimum wage elasticities are substantial, typically in the range of ?0.14 to ?0.44, with ?0.30 being a reasonable point estimate, and with the effects being larger after lagged adjustments.     

Firm‐Size Wage Gaps along the Formal‐Informal Divide: Theory and Evidence

Observationally equivalent workers are paid higher wages in larger firms. This fact is often called the “firm‐size wage gap” and is regarded as a key empirical puzzle. Using microlevel data from Turkey, we document a new stylized fact: The firm‐size wage gap is more pronounced for informal (unregistered) jobs than for formal (registered) jobs. To explain this fact, we develop a two‐stage wage‐posting game with market imperfections and segmented markets, the solution to which produces wages as a function of firm size in a well‐defined subgame‐perfect equilibrium. The model proposes two explanations. First, taxes on formal employment generate a wedge between formal and informal size wage gaps. Thus, government policy can potentially affect the magnitude of the firm‐size wage gaps. The second explanation features a market‐based framework with strategic interactions. Relative to small firms, large firms typically post higher wages for both formal and informal jobs. A high‐wage formal job attracts a larger pool of applicants than a high‐wage informal job. The larger pool of applicants for the formal job, in turn, allows the firm to somewhat lower the initial wage offer, while this second‐round effect is negligible for informal jobs. As a result, size differentials are lower in formal jobs than informal jobs. We argue that the observed patterns in the use of social connections in job search and heterogeneity in job preferences can be used to justify the validity of this second mechanism.     

Production Technology and the Interindutry Wage Structure

This paper presents a model in which production technology (scale and capital-intensity) explains interindustry differences in the earnings of workers with similar skill in similarly attrative jobs. The empirical analysis shows that manufacturing industires fall into three segments with broadly similar production technologies, and that prodcut market and employment characteristics vary as expected across these segments. Capital intensity and job-skill requirements are found to have positive wage effects for the full set of industries, but the resluts by segment suggest that the capital-intensity effect increases, and the skill effects decreases, with the capital-intensity of prodcution.     

The Structure of the Wage Gap for Temporary Workers: Evidence from Australian Panel Data

This study uses panel data for Australia to estimate the wage differential between workers in temporary jobs and workers in permanent jobs. It is the first study to use unconditional quantile regression methods in combination with fixed effects to examine how this gap varies over the entire wage distribution. While the wages of fixed‐term contract workers are found to be similar to those of permanent workers, low‐paid casual workers experience a wage penalty and high‐paid casual workers a wage premium compared to their permanent counterparts. Temporary agency workers also usually receive a wage premium, which is particularly large for the most well paid.     

Social Partnership Agreements in Britain: Labor Cooperation and Compliance

This article reviews evidence on the outcomes of British social partnership agreements using matched comparisons. It concludes that in industries marked by employment decline, partnership firms often have shed jobs at a faster rate than nonpartnership firms. However, in expanding sectors, partnership firms have created jobs at a faster rate than nonpartnership rivals. There is no discernible impact of partnership on either wage settlements or union density. It is argued that we need evidence on information sharing, trust, and power and suggested that partnership agreements are unlikely to contribute significantly to union revitalization.     

Multiple Glass Ceilings

Both vertical (between job levels) and horizontal (within job levels) mobility can be sources of wage growth. We find that the glass ceiling operates at both margins. The unexplained part of the wage gap grows across job levels (glass ceiling at the vertical margin) and across the deciles of the intra‐job‐level wage distribution (glass ceiling at the horizontal margin). This implies that women face many glass ceilings, one for each job level above the second, and that the glass ceiling is a pervasive phenomenon. In the Netherlands it affects about 88 percent of jobs, and 81 percent of Dutch women in employment work in job levels where a glass ceiling is present.     

Comparable Worth and Factor Point Pay Analysis in State Government

This study examines how factor point systems have treated state government jobs, which are held disproportionately by women, minorities, and union members. The findings indicate that female jobs may gain from comparable worth pay proposals, but the gains are dissipated in actual pay; unionized and minority workers tend to lose both proposed and actual pay; and the dispersion of points and pay is narrowed for jobs covered by collective bargaining agreements     

Are Minimum Wage Effects Greater in Low‐Wage Areas?

Empirical work on the minimum wage typically estimates effects averaged across high‐ and low‐wage areas. Low‐wage labor markets could potentially be less able to absorb minimum wage increases, in turn leading to more negative employment effects. In this article, we examine minimum wage effects in low‐wage counties, where relative minimum wage ratios reach as high as 0.82, well beyond the state‐based ratios in extant studies. Using data from the American Community Survey, the Quarterly Workforce Indicators, and the Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages, we implement event study and difference‐in‐differences methods, estimating average causal effects for all events in our sample and separately for areas with lower and higher impacts. We find positive wage effects, especially in high‐impact counties, but do not detect adverse effects on employment, weekly hours, or annual weeks worked. We do not find negative employment effects among women, Blacks, and/or Hispanics. In high‐impact counties, we find substantial declines in household and child poverty. These results inform policy debates about providing exemptions to a $15 federal minimum wage in low‐wage areas.     

When Do Living Wages Bite?

Many features of living wage laws may influence the strength of their effects on wages and employment of low-skill individuals. Echoing past research, business assistance living wage laws generate stronger wage increases and employment reductions than contractor-only laws. But broader enforcement or implementation and geographic concentration of living wage laws also appear to strengthen their effects. Finally, geographic concentration may be more significant than the distinction between business assistance and contractor-only living wage laws.     

The Effects of Minimum Wages on Low‐Skilled Immigrants’ Wages,Employment, and Poverty

Raising the minimum wage has been advanced as complementary policy to comprehensive immigration reform to improve low‐skilled immigrants’ economic well‐being. While adverse labor demand effects could undermine this goal, existing studies do not detect evidence of negative employment effects. We re‐investigate this question using data from the 1994 to 2016 Current Population Survey and conclude that minimum wage increases reduced employment of less‐educated Hispanic immigrants, with estimated elasticities of around –0.1. However, we also find that the wage and employment effects of minimum wages on low‐skilled immigrants diminished over the last decade. This finding is consistent with more restrictive state immigration policies and the Great Recession inducing outmigration of low‐skilled immigrants, as well as immigrants moving into the informal sector. Finally, our results show that raising the minimum wage is an ineffective policy tool for reducing poverty among immigrants.     

我国最低工资标准的就业效应——基于全国和地区的实证研究

利用1996年～2007年全国27个省、直辖市、自治区的面板数据模型，考察了最低工资标准对就业的影响。实证结果表明，最低工资标准的提高对全国总体就业有负影响，但影响力度很小。进一步的地区分析表明，最低工资标准的提高对东、西部地区的就业有负影响，对中部地区的就业则无显著性影响。最后给出了相关的政策建议。     

Labor Market Discrimination against Women with Disabilities

This article estimates the extent of wage discrimination and, for the first time, the employment effects of wage discrimination, against women with disabilities. In 1984, more than one-half of the offer wage differential between disabled and nondisabled women is attributable to discrimination, but the absolute wage differential is small. The results suggest that wage discrimination related to disability tends to be most severe for a relatively small group of women with impairments against which prejudice is most intense. There is a large difference between the employment rates of disabled and nondisabled women but only a small part of the differential is attributable to the disincentive effects of wage discrimination. The results also show that women with disabilities face a double burden of gender- and disability-related discrimination, but do not show that gender-related discrimination is worse for women who have a disability.     

The Effects of Working Time, Segmentation and Labour Market Mobility on Wages and Pensions in Ireland

Most research on pay and benefit differences between full– and part–time work focuses on characteristics of part–time workers and part–time jobs. However, part–time jobs are more open to labour market 'outsiders', and such labour market mobility can influence wages. We analyse the effects of working time, gender, segmentation and mobility on wages and pension benefits in Ireland. Both segmentation and mobility influence wages directly, and controlling for segmentation in a wage model eliminates the negative effect of part–time working. The wage effects of labour market mobility differ by gender and labour market segment. Pension entitlement is strongly influenced by gender, working time, labour market segment and mobility.     

Detecting Effects of Living Wage Laws

We estimate the effects of living wage laws on wages of low-wage workers, focusing on the timing of policy, spurious associations, and the type of living wage law passed in a city. Our estimates point to sizable positive wage effects in cities with broad living wage laws that cover employers receiving business assistance from the city. We also explore disemployment effects of living wage laws and find evidence consistent with tradeoffs between wages and employment.     

Evaluating Pay Equity in Michigan: A Strategic Choice Perspective

The strategic choice model provides one framework for analyzing pay equity reform in the public sector. Michigan was experiencing many of the same political and economic forces as other state civil services implementing comparable worth. However, the institutional structure of civil service industrial relations, coupled with the values of officials, undermined the reform process. Rather than adjusting relative wage rates to reflect the new Equitable Classification Plan, civil service officials reaffirmed market criteria in wage setting.     

Minimum Wages and Youth Employment: Evidence from the Finnish Retail Trade Sector

Following an agreement between the trade unions and the employer organizations in 1993, Finnish employers could temporarily pay less than the existing minimum wage for young workers. We examine the effects of these minimum wage exceptions by comparing the changes in wages and employment of the groups whose minimum wages were reduced with simultaneous changes among slightly older workers for whom the minimum wages remained unchanged. Our analysis is based on payroll record data and minimum wage agreements from the retail trade sector. The results show that average wages in the eligible group declined only modestly. We find no significant effects on employment.     

Capital investment and employment in the information sector

Estimation of the employment effects of changes in capital investment is a standard tool in public policy debates. Typically, such predictions are based on employment multipliers derived from Input–Output analysis. In this paper, we measure the employment effects of changes in capital investment in the U.S. information sector by econometrically estimating an “employment multiplier” from historical data. The estimated multiplier is 10 information sector jobs for each million dollars in expenditure, and perhaps 24 new jobs per million dollars invested across the entire economy. Employment multipliers derived from the Input–Output methodology average about 16 jobs per million, but the multiplier includes jobs outside the information sector. Including employment spillovers, our estimates suggest the multipliers from Input–Output models are plausible. We also note that information sector jobs have substantially higher median earnings than the private sector average, so the economic significance of changes in information sector employment are greater than might first appear. Our findings may be useful in debates over changes in industry regulation that could affect investment.