The rise of female entrepreneurs: New evidence on gender differences in liquidity constraints

In this paper, we study the importance of liquidity constraints for entrepreneurial activity, using previously unexplored data from the UK. Using inheritances as an instrument, IV estimates reveal that single women drive the overall relationship between personal wealth and the propensity to start a new business. Defining business ownership rather than self-employment as the entrepreneurial outcome measure is also shown to be critical. Using self-employment leads to selection bias and underestimates the impact of personal wealth. The results imply that efforts aimed at relieving the liquidity constraints of single women could help further accelerate the recent rise of female entrepreneurship.     

转型经济中农户储蓄行为:中国农村的实证研究

本文运用大样本农户家庭调查资料 ,对决定中国农户家庭储蓄行为的影响因素进行了探索 ,从实际出发构建了一个具有较好解释力 ,且能对各种类型的变量均有所考虑的储蓄模型。研究发现 :(a)流动性约束、预防性储蓄动机以及工业化等对储蓄率的上升贡献相当大 ,且为正值 ;(b)在解释区域间储蓄率的差异时 ,文化是一个相当重要的因素 ;(c)家庭生命周期的“∪”型分布假说被拒绝 ,相反的“∩”型分布被发现 ;(d)当家庭财富与储蓄率的相关关系表现为负时 ,持久收入假说也被拒绝。     

LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS,HOUSEHOLD WEALTH,AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP REVISITED

The existence of liquidity constraints for entrepreneurs has been challenged by the finding that business entry rates are invariant throughout most of the asset distribution and increase dramatically only at the top of this distribution. We reexamine the liquidity constraint hypothesis in three ways. First, we separately examine those who do and those who do not experience a job loss to reveal generally increasing entry rates through the wealth distribution for both groups, and show why these groups should be separately analyzed. Second, we use a two‐period simulation of the Evans and Jovanovic model to shows how exogenous wealth shocks can accurately identify the presence of liquidity constraints. Third, we provide new evidence from matched Current Population Survey data to show that housing appreciation measured at the MSA‐level is a significantly positive determinant of entry into self‐employment, after controlling for changes in local economic conditions.     

Non-linear adjustments on the excess sensitivity of consumption with liquidity constraints

This article investigates the role of domestic credit markets in explaining the excess sensitivity of private consumption to disposable income using heterogeneous panel data of 19 OECD countries over the last two decades. We find that the degree of the excess sensitivity has decreased as the liquidity constraints of households have been alleviated: the estimated time-varying coefficients for the marginal propensity to consume vary between 0.16 for the countries with low liquidity constraints and 0.38 for those with high liquidity constraints. We also provide evidence that the excess sensitivity has been more prominent after the global financial crisis in some advanced countries, such as Japan, Spain, and the United States, where sharp deleveraging of households has been ongoing.     

SELF-EMPLOYMENT AND WEALTH INEQUALITY

Is the decision to become and stay self-employed constrained by access to credit? If this is the case, a more unequal wealth distribution will—for empirically observed distributions–imply more self-employed, since the number of people able to provide collateral will be higher. Swedish data between 1920 and 1992 suggest that wealth inequality and the share of self-employed among those working are positively related. The data, therefore, are consistent with the hypothesis that liquidity constraints are binding on the decision to become and stay self-employed.     

Unemployment and labor force participation in the United States

This paper uses historical data from the United States to investigate the relationship between unemployment and labor force participation. Cointegration analysis supports a long-run relationship between these two variables, which leads us to question the empirical relevance of the unemployment invariance hypothesis for the United States.     

A Head-to-Head Comparison of Augmented Wealth in Germany and the United States*

We examine the composition of augmented household wealth (i.e., the sum of net worth and pension wealth) in the United States and Germany. Pension wealth makes up a considerable portion of household wealth, of about 48 percent in the United States and 61 percent in Germany. When pension wealth is included in household wealth, the Gini coefficient falls from 0.889 to 0.700 in the United States, and from 0.755 to 0.508 in Germany. If the wealth shares in Germany were the same as in the United States, this would lead to a 12.6 percent increase in the Gini coefficient in the augmented wealth distribution in Germany.     

Self-employment and Liquidity Constraints: Evidence from Finland

Using a large Finnish micro data set, I study how wealth influences the decision to become self-employed. The main result is that personal wealth increases the probability of a person becoming self-employed. This suggests the presence of liquidity constraints.
JEL classification: J 23; M 13     

Is market liquidity less resilient after the financial crisis? Evidence for US Treasuries

Understanding market liquidity resilience, i.e. the capacity of liquidity to absorb shocks, of United States Treasuries is crucial from a financial stability standpoint. The conventional resilience measure has limitations due to the use of the liquidity level. We propose a new complementary approach to analyze resilience based on liquidity volatility. For this purpose, we focus on the link between returns volatility and liquidity volatility, which is a relatively unexplored field. We fit a bivariate conditional correlation (CC-) GARCH model for the 10-year bond returns and five liquidity indicators from January 2003 to June 2016 to analyze persistence and spillovers between these variables in a parsimonious way. We find that after the crisis, spillovers between liquidity volatility and returns volatility are higher, feedback loops are more likely and volatility persistence is lower, which is consistent with a lower resilience. Our results help to explain recent episodes of high volatility in this market.     

通货膨胀冲击的财产再分配效应——基于中美两国的比较研究

本文利用微观调查数据研究了中美两国通胀冲击的财产再分配效应。本文的定量研究结果表明,通胀冲击将侵蚀中国家庭部门的财产,并进一步恶化家庭间的财产分布;而美国的情况却截然相反。从通胀再分配效应的视角出发,本文建议我国在制定货币政策时应当更加重视民生目标,逐步建立起多种形式的通胀补贴制度,以增强社会底层的通胀承受能力。     

Do liquidity constraints generate excess sensitivity in consumption? New evidence from a sample of post-bankruptcy households

Previous work linking liquidity constraints to excessive consumption sensitivity have used household level information on wealth and assets to split the sample into households that are likely to be constrained from those with access to credit and liquidity. In this paper, we use the sample splitting methods of previous authors but refine the criteria by using direct information on whether the household filed for bankruptcy in the last 10 years. Legally, a flag can appear on a bankruptcy filer’s credit report for up to 10 years after bankruptcy. This bankruptcy flag affects an individual’s credit score, and therefore the individual’s access to credit, which may make post-bankruptcy consumers liquidity constrained. Our results indicate that post-bankruptcy consumers exhibit excess sensitivity likely due to the bankruptcy flag. Consistency checks confirm that the source of sensitivity is due to liquidity constraints and not other observationally equivalent behavior.     

Entrepreneurship,Saving, and Social Mobility

This paper examines entrepreneurship in order to analyze, first, the degree to which the opportunity to start or own a business affects the household's saving behavior and the implication of this behavior for the distribution of wealth and, second, the relationship between the extent of entrepreneurship in the economy and socioeconomic mobility, that is, the movement of families across wealth classes over time.First, a number of stylized facts based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the Survey of Consumer Finances are outlined. They show relevant differences in asset holdings and wealth mobility between entrepreneurs and workers. Second, a dynamic general equilibrium model with an explicit formalization of the entrepreneurial choice is developed. Through the modeling of the entrepreneurial activities, the model generates a concentration of wealth similar to the one observed in the U.S. economy and it replicates the main patterns of wealth mobility in which entrepreneurs experience higher upward mobility than workers. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E21, D31, J23     

Liquidity in Asian markets: Intensity of Regional and global linkages

This study investigates cross-market linkages and the intensity of liquidity spillovers across nine Asian markets and five developed markets during 2006 to 2016. Further, the study examines the contagion caused by recent global financial crisis and its impact on the market liquidity. The direction and intensity of spillovers has been measured using forecast error variance decomposition method as suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). Among the developed markets, the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom significantly affect liquidity changes in Asian countries like India, China, Singapore and Japan. The results revels that on average, each Asian market receives 7% spillover from the global markets and 16% from regional markets. During the financial crisis, the average regional spillover increased to 20% and the global spillover increased to 11%. Thus, in Asia, the regional spillover is higher than the global spillover. Our results support the demand side hypothesis and suggest that it is the trade and portfolio investments that drive the liquidity spillovers. Our findings have potential implications for international investors, policy makers and market regulators.     

When expectations become aspirations: reference-dependent preferences and liquidity constraints

A large body of literature suggests that consumers derive utility from gains and losses relative to a reference point. This paper shows that such reference dependence can affect savings in opposite directions depending on whether people face liquidity constraints. Existing models for wealth and intertemporal choice predict that reference dependence reduces savings, but these models abstract from liquidity constraints. Introducing a liquidity constraint, I find that reference dependence can increase optimal savings for people without access to credit. Ex post, after reference points have been formed, liquidity constraints force consumers to take part of an income loss in early periods, inducing those who are reference dependent to concentrate the full loss in early periods and save in order to eliminate future losses. Further, anticipating a liquidity constraint raises the expected level of future consumption and thus the expectations-based reference point for future periods, creating an ex-ante savings motive. These findings underscore that it is important to account for financial market imperfections when applying or testing reference-dependent models in low-income settings, and potentially explain heterogeneity in how much the poor save when facing binding liquidity constraints.     

国际创新创业研究热点与趋势可视化分析

基于Web of Science数据库,借助知识图谱分析软件CiteSpace V,对国际四大顶级创业期刊近10年（2007-2016年）文献进行统计研究。运用共引、共词分析的突现值及图谱研究等方法,对创新创业领域的前沿热点、演化路径、研究趋势等进行分析,发现创新创业研究发文数量呈逐年增长趋势;从地域及机构分布来看,美国、英国、加拿大为创新创业研究高产国家;高产研究机构主要分布在美国、加拿大等国的大学和科研院所,机构前10名中美国占70%;高产作者分别是Shepherd DA、Wright M、Chrisman JJ、Webb JW、Baron RA等,他们大部分分布在高产机构中。研究热点由较为关注企业绩效、企业家才能、创新、洞察力等对创新创业发展的影响,逐渐转变为关注新经济背景下涌现的中小企业、新生企业的合法进入、机会识别等方面。     

Will Sub-Prime be a Twin Crisis for the United States?

We identify incentives generated by the Bretton Woods II system that may have contributed to the sub-prime liquidity crisis now working its way through the international monetary system. We then evaluate the persistent conjecture that the liquidity crisis is or will become a balance of payments crisis for the United States. Given that it happens, the additional costs associated with a sudden stop of net capital flows to the United States could be quite substantial. But we observe that emerging market governments have continued to acquire US assets even as yields have fallen, and the incentives for continuing to do so remain strong. Moreover, the Bretton Woods II system, which has clearly been the most resilient of the forces driving current markets, continues to generate low real interest rates in industrial countries and growth in emerging markets that will help limit the damage from the liquidity crisis.     

数字普惠金融与中国农村家庭财富差距

促进农民增收致富和推动乡村振兴是二十大关注的重要问题。本文使用中国家庭金融调查数据和数字普惠金融指数,用分位回归方法分析了数字普惠金融对中国农村家庭财富差距的影响。结果发现：数字普惠金融可以显著提高农村家庭财富,有助于缩小家庭财富差距。随着家庭财富由低到高,数字普惠金融对于农村不同财富家庭总资产的正向影响由大到小。由于不同财富家庭的负债结构差异较大,随着财富由低到高,数字普惠金融对家庭净资产的影响则由小到大。夏普里值分解结果表明,数字普惠金融对农村家庭财富差距的贡献度近三分之一。异质性分析表明,数字普惠金融发展对于低收入家庭和低教育水平家庭财富的正向作用更强,进一步证明了上述结论。机制分析表明,数字普惠金融能显著促进农村家庭特别是低财富家庭的创业行为,而创业对于最低财富组家庭资产的正向刺激作用最强;受流动性约束可能性越大的低财富家庭,越能从数字普惠金融的发展中获益。因而进一步证实数字普惠金融可以缩小农村家庭财富差距。本文的研究说明,发展数字普惠金融对于探索农民致富路径和推进乡村振兴有积极作用。     

Precautionary wealth accumulation: evidence from Canadian microdata

Abstract .  This paper estimates the effect of labour income uncertainty on wealth accumulation using two data sources. Wealth information is obtained from the master files of the new Canadian Survey of Financial Security 1999 (SFS). Labour income risk proxies are constucted by industry using the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) between 1996 and 2001. The empirical results suggest the presence of a strong precautionary saving motive among Canadian households for broad definitions of wealth. Furthermore, consistent with the buffer-stock-saving model, the level of precautionary funds significantly increases when households face liquidity constraints.     

How do consumers respond to house price declines?

Movements in house prices and consumer spending are closely correlated in many developed nations. Much debate exists on whether this relationship is causal arising from either wealth effects or via borrowing constraints. This paper uses a unique survey question on consumer responses to house price falls to explain the relationship between house price movements and consumer spending among households in the United Kingdom. 30% of households report they would cut back consumption as a direct response to house price falls. Households who reported they were borrowing constrained were much more likely to report they would cut consumption.