China Financial Prospects for 2003

At the central financial work conference held late last year, the Government decided to continue the set financial policies that stress the need to expand domestic demand, maintain stable monetary policies, safeguard financial risks, guarantee necessary governmental support to economic growth, and keep reasonable currency increases. Based on this, China's monetary policies this year will basically     

2003年:外贸进出口将持续平稳增长

在中国加入WTO效应的作用和世界经济复苏的国际环境影响下,我国外贸出口出现了加速增长势头,外贸出口对经济增长的拉动作用明显增大.2003年我国外贸进出口将持续平稳增长,机电产品和高新技术产品的出口将增长迅猛,非国有经济的出口比重将上升.与此同时,利用外资和引进外资也将保持高增长的态势,外资的投资领域也将大大拓宽.另外,在引进来的同时,我国企业走出去直接投资的时机和条件也已基本成熟.     

建立进出口商品碳核查技术体系的前景分析

介绍了目前国内碳排放交易及碳核查市场的试行规则,初步探讨了对进出口商品进行碳核查的可能性以及检验检疫技术机构适时介入碳交易活动的机遇。     

2002年世界造船市场回顾与2003年展望

2002年世界造船市场概况 1.新船订单与上年持平散货船需求增大根据公开的新船成交报告估计,2002年全球新船成交量与2001年基本持平,约在5000万载重吨左右。其中油船约2030万载重吨,比2001年下降700多万载重吨,减幅达四分之一;散货船2160万载重吨,比2001年增加一倍多;集装箱船成交约     

知耻而后勇--2003年我国摩托车出口再掀高潮访中国机电产品进出口商会摩托车分会秘书长杨振恒

摩托车行业内的很多人至今仍在怀念上个世纪90年代的美好时光,在人们不经意的短短数年间,中国的摩托车产量就突破了1000万辆,成为世界摩托车第一生产大国。 然而供给过剩的压力很快袭来,由于过量生产及税收、限牌等原因,国内市场很快饱和,于是摩托车大军纷纷杀向国际市场。特别是2000年、2001年,摩托车出口急速的增长,一跃成为世界上最大的摩托车出口国(见表1)。在利益的驱动下,一     

Export Stages and Export Barriers: Revisiting Traditional Export Development

This study revisits the stage model dialogue by testing seven hypotheses on the relationship between stages of export development and the influence of export barriers. Empirical data are based on a sample of 145 New Zealand firms, and the analysis combines a six‐stage framework with an illustrative list of barriers, while going a step further than previous research by examining the effect of covariates. Empirical results demonstrate that resource constraints, marketing barriers, knowledge and experience barriers, and export‐procedure barriers are “export stage dependent.” However, regarding export‐stage‐dependent barriers, differences exist only when we compare the early to the very advanced stages of development. These results also refute the grand hypothesis, which suggests an inverse relationship between export stages and the influence of export barriers. While the stage model typology still provides a practicable basis for need‐based segmentation, it does not capture completely the heterogeneity associated with the middle stages. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Perceived Export Problems and Export Involvement:

A relatively limited amount of empirical research has focused on problems and issues pertaining to exporting from countries not associated with an advanced level of economic development. This paper reports on a systematic study of problems experienced by Greek exporting manufacturers in their trading activities with overseas distributors based in European Community (EC). In this context, an attempt is made, firstly, to investigate the underlying structure of exporting problems, and secondly, to examine the extent to which there are significant differences in perceptions of exporting problems based upon the degree of export involvement. A number of significant differences are found to exist in perceived export problems between different exporter categories in terms of export involvement. The implications of the study for business practitioners and public policy makers are highlighted, and future research directions are identified and discussed.     

Impact of Export Promotion on Export Performance:

This study empirically examines the impact of export promotional services on the export performance of manufacturing firms in Tanzania. The results suggest three broad tentative contributions to our understanding of export causal relationships: First, awareness per se of export promotional services is a poor explanatory factor of export performance. Second, as expected, usage of the services is a better explanatory factor than awareness. Third, contrary to expectations, satisfaction with the services tends to be inversely associated, though not significantly, with export performance. More empirical research elsewhere is recommended to validate these results.     

Export transitions

This paper uses a broad multi-country dataset to describe the main stylized facts about export performance in the last four decades. First, transition probability matrices are computed to look at changes in the position of countries at the world distribution of the export to GDP ratio. It finds that transitions toward high export ratios have been mainly experienced by Asian countries, but also that some reformers, like Mexico and Chile, have been able to improve their position relative to other studied economies. African countries mainly sunk to the bottom part of the world distribution, although they constitute only half of the economies with relatively bad export performance. In the consideration of the structural factors that may play an important role for long-run transitions, the results suggest that more open economies and those with better institutions are more likely to move to high export ratios in the long-run. Second, the within-country experiences are analyzed for identifying episodes of export transitions. Using an event study methodology, a very weak association is found between export transitions and investment rate. In contrast, the results suggest that transitions are potentially driven by improvements in financial development. Finally, favorable terms of trade, increments in productivity, and reductions in exchange rate distortions are not found to be a catalyst for export transitions.     

文化贸易出口持续期如何影响了出口品质

文化贸易出口持续期与文化产品出口品质之间存在何种影响效应?文章基于1996-2013年联合国贸易统计数据库,通过构建文化贸易出口品质和出口持续期指标,实证分析发现:由于文化消费的"理性成瘾"和消费惯性特征,文化贸易出口持续期对出口品质提升具有显著的促进效应。在不同文化产品类别和出口持续期样本中,上述影响效应存在显著的差异,在"退出"、"进入"和"只存在一年"等样本呈现显著的负向抑制效应。此外,文化产品的进口规模、出口目的国文化差异与经济发展水平等因素均与文化出口品质存在显著的影响。本文多种稳健性回归估计验证了上述结论。基于此,如何有效提升中国文化贸易的出口持续期,发挥其对出口品质的促进效应,可能是提高中国文化产品的国际竞争力的关键所在。     

利用出口信用保险促进我国农产品出口

扩大农产品出口,对我国农业经济发展具有重要的意义。出口信用保险是符合世贸组织规则的国际通行的支持商品出口的政策性手段,有助于解决农产品出口中面临的风险大、资金紧张、结构不合理等问题。积极推广利用出口信用保险,可以推动我国农产品出口贸易的发展。     

浅析我国蔬菜出口现状及策略

近年来，我国的蔬菜出口逐年加速增长，出口品种日趋多样化，出口市场日益扩大。全球蔬菜需求量的增加和加入WTO又为我国的蔬菜出口提供了新的机遇。但我国的蔬菜出口业仍然存在产品结构单一、质量较差、各出口商之间恶性竞争问题，严重影响我国蔬菜的出口。为适应当今国际蔬菜市场上发展的需要，我国应采取相应的措施，如理顺蔬菜出口管理体制、优化产品结构、提高产品质量等。     

出口退税政策与我国出口商品结构优化——基于不同技术程度行业的研究

本文基于不同技术程度行业考察了2001年1月至2008年8月我国出口退税政策对出口商品结构影响的实际效应。研究得出了以下结论:(1)出口退税政策对我国出口商品结构中初级产品行业和劳动密集型行业出口影响十分显著,对高新技术行业影响不显著或影响较小。(2)出口退税政策与我国出口商品结构中初级产品行业和劳动密集型行业出口比重呈显著正相关,与高新技术行业的相关性不明确。(3)出口退税政策对我国出口商品结构中初级产品行业和劳动密集型行业出口影响比高新技术行业更明显。针对以上结论本文提出两点建议:第一,从优化我国出口商品结构的角度看,我国出口商品结构调整应主要针对初级产品行业和劳动密集型行业进行,效果会更加明显。第二,在失业率较高时期可以通过提高劳动密集型行业出口退税率来增加就业。     

跟着邻居去出口?——邻居出口信号、不确定性与出口目的地本土集聚

本文识别了一种新型出口集聚方式,即出口目的地的本土集聚,并基于理论和实证两个维度从邻居出口信号的角度解释了其发生原因。本文理论研究表明,与经典理论不同,当存在信息不对称时,企业的出口决策并不是独立完成,而是基于"邻居"所发出的出口信号综合权衡的结果,因此利好的邻居出口信号会带动企业向同一目的国出口,从而出现出口目的地的本土集聚,但较大的市场不确定性会削弱信号的可信度,从而抑制这一集聚过程。在经验研究中,本文基于2000—2016年的海关数据测度了中国的出口目的地本土集聚,发现出口目的地本土集聚程度逐年上升,且与目的地不确定性呈现负相关。基准研究发现利好的邻居出口信号显著提高了出口目的地本土集聚的程度,利用事件分析联合倍差法(ESDID)克服了潜在的内生性问题并引入一种新颖的两阶段方法检验了目的国市场不确定性影响的理论假说,本文的结论意味着,在外部环境相对较差的背景下,信息的透明度与信号传递的正确性、及时性会极大地影响到中国出口目的地分布与出口安全。