浅析经济周期与宏观调控的关系

经济周期是超越体制和发展阶段的客观规律,只有认识和利用经济周期波动的客观规律才能有效地实施宏观调控,而宏观调控是为了熨平经济周期,实现并维持经济的稳定增长.国家频繁调整宏观经济政策会加剧经济波动,出台时机和力度选择不正确的宏观调控会延长经济收缩期缩短经济扩张期.因此,我国的宏观经济政策应长期保持稳定性,同时宏观调控要规范化,要提高科学性和预见性.     

二战前后西方财政理论发展及其对我国的启示

二战前后,西方财政理论的研究取得了较大进步,逐步构建起了现代公共财政理论.西方财政理论确立的逻辑判断标准包括完整的框架与体系、核心概念的提出与对现实的解释作用.同时,二战后西方国家政治经济的变化对财政理论的发展也具有重要影响.我国财政理论发展的现实与之相对照,可以发现存在的问题,应通过转变研究范式、解决财政理论研究的核心问题与发展的研究方法等路径,来实现我国财政理论的发展.     

评述第一次世界大战前的德俄关系

德国和俄国，在德国统一之后，是欧洲两个极其重要的大国，两国的关系影响着欧洲乃至国际局势的变化。自德国统一至第一次世界大战爆发，德国与俄国的关系在错综复杂的欧洲国际关系背景下，变得扑朔迷离。在国家利益的驱动下，德俄两国由盟友到对手，直至相互宣战。从这一时期双边关系的演变来看，德国多处于主动地位。     

二战后马克思主义经济学面临的现实性挑战及其回应

时代的发展与变迁对马克思主义经济学提出了新的问题和挑战,对此中外马克思主义经济学者在理论上进行了大量的有价值的研究和探索。从科技革命的推动与资本主义的历史地位、市场经济体制的建立与社会主义的发展、西方经济思潮的冲击与马克思主义经济学主流地位的坚守四个方面,梳理了二战以来中外马克思主义经济学者的研究成果,发现马克思主义经济学的生命力与科学性正是源于在实践中的丰富和发展,因此,坚持马克思主义经济学在中国的指导地位,首先必须在新的时代条件下,与时俱进,创新和发展马克思主义经济学。     

危机与应对:战后日本宏观经济政策理论的过渡与交替

战后为应对每一次经济危机,日本政府均实施了相应的宏观经济政策。这些政策依次更迭是基于三个传统意义上的宏观经济基本理论,即凯恩斯主义、新自由主义,以及理性预期学派经济学说的过渡与交替。随着历史条件和经济周期的不断变化,为应对危机,国家干预或经济自由主义交替运用。当前,世界经济运行制度体系进入了一个转变的时点,国际贸易保护主义有所抬头,且其趋势愈演愈烈,中国作为世界第二大经济体深陷其中,需要我们在考虑经济与政治的框架内探索新的理论创新方式,以实现经济平稳健康发展。然而创新源于历史的逻辑的东西,因此,反思历史的经济思维对指导当前具有重要意义,日本宏观经济理论的过渡与交替就为我们的探索提供了有益的历史经验与教训。     

危机与应对:战后日本宏观经济政策理论的过渡与交替

战后为应对每一次经济危机,日本政府均实施了相应的宏观经济政策。这些政策依次更迭是基于三个传统意义上的宏观经济基本理论,即凯恩斯主义、新自由主义,以及理性预期学派经济学说的过渡与交替。随着历史条件和经济周期的不断变化,为应对危机,国家干预或经济自由主义交替运用。当前,世界经济运行制度体系进入了一个转变的时点,国际贸易保护主义有所抬头,且其趋势愈演愈烈,中国作为世界第二大经济体深陷其中,需要我们在考虑经济与政治的框架内探索新的理论创新方式,以实现经济平稳健康发展。然而创新源于"历史的逻辑的东西",因此,反思历史的经济思维对指导当前具有重要意义,日本宏观经济理论的过渡与交替就为我们的探索提供了有益的历史经验与教训。     

对二战后发展理论及官方发展援助关系的思考

二战结束后,发展的理论经历了从经济发展观到可持续性发展观的演变,官方发展援助的实践则在一定程度上促成了这种演变,本文力图通过对发展理论及官方发展援助实践动态演变的阐述来揭示发展的理论与发展实践之间的关系,即发展理论如何影响官方发展援助,人们如何通过对官方发展援助实际效果的观察来反思当时的发展理论,并对其进行修正和调整,在这种指导、实践、修正、反思的过程中发展理论和发展援助实践不断趋于成熟与完善。     

创业投资的会计处理与税收政策分析

中国的创业投资业在经过了20多年的发展后,目前已经基本构建了一个比较完整的创业投资运作和管理体系。但是在税收政策上还没有专门的税收政策,创业投资企业基本套用一般企业适用的税收政策,结果造成重复课税、尚不能有限合伙、研究开发费用尚不能抵税、养老基金等尚不能参与风险投资等问题,制约了企业的发展。如何调整相关的会计处理方法以及税收政策促进创业投资企业的发展？从政策环境创新条件下的政策选择,以及现行税制及相关环境框架内的政策选择两个不同的角度提出了自己的设想。     

An analysis of e-business adoption and its impact on business performance

Across industries, firms have adopted e-business initiatives to better manage their internal business processes as well as their interfaces with the environment. In this study, a unified framework that captures the antecedents of e-business adoption, adoption intensity, and performance outcomes is proposed and empirically tested using data collected from senior managers in four technology-intensive industries. Applying a framework that captures the intensity of e-business adoption across four business process domains, the authors find that the antecedents and performance outcomes of e-business adoption are best studied in a process-specific context. They find, for example, that while the communication and internal administration aspects of e-business positively affect performance outcomes, the more high-profile activities related to online order taking and e-procurement do not. The authors' findings provide the foundation for a more rigorous study of e-business. Fang Wu (fangwu@msu.edu) (Ph.D., University of Texas at Austin) is an assistant professor of marketing at the Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University. Her current research interests include e-business adoption strategy, knowledge transfer in new product alliances, interfirm learning dynamics, and marketing knowledge management. Vijay Mahajan (vijay.mahajan@bus.utexas.edu) (Ph.D., University of Texas at Austin) is the John P. Harbin Centennial Chair in Business and a professor of marketing at the McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin, and dean of the Indian School of Business at Hyderabad, India. He has written extensively on product diffusion, marketing strategy, and marketing research methodologies. He has written and/or edited eight books. His research appears in journals such as theJournal of Marketing Research, theJournal of Marketing, Marketing Science, Management Science, andHarvard Business Review. He has received the Best Research Paper Award from theJournal of Retailing (1982, 1985), theJournal of Marketing (Maynard Award, 1990), and theInternational Journal of Research in Marketing (Prentice Hall Award, 1995). He also received the American Marketing Association (AMA) Charles Coolidge Parlin Marketing Research Award (1997) and the AMA Marketing Research Special Interest Group Gilbert Churchill Award in 1999, recognizing lifetime achievement in marketing research. Sridhar Balasubramanian (balasubs@bschool.unc.edu) (Ph.D., Yale University) is an assistant professor of marketing at Kenan-Flagler, the University of North Carolina Business School. His research interests cover multiple areas including marketing strategy, channel portfolio management, e-commerce and m-commerce, direct marketing and customer relationship management, game theory and the management of competition, digitization, and strategic compensation. His research has been published or is forthcoming in journals such asMarketing Science, Management Science, Statistica Neerlandica, theInternational Journal of Electronic Commerce, Decision Support Systems, and theJournal of Retailing. He received the John D. C. Little Award for 1998 from the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Science (INFORMS) for the best marketing paper inMarketing Science andManagement Science. He has worked as a marketing strategy adviser to start-up companies and served as guest coeditor of the Centennial Issue of theJournal of Retailing.     

Ethical guidelines for business and social marketing

The ethical sensitivity of all professionals has come under closer scrutiny recently. Within the business area, the ethics of marketing executives in particular has been viewed with skepticism. The growing use of “social marketing” also compounds the potential for ethical abuse. The ethical dimensions of both business and social marketing are examined in this paper. Four ethical guidelines-increased professionalism, ethical consultants, seminars and ethical cost-benefit analyses-are suggested as a means of improving the ethical standards of marketing decision-making.     

Hysteresis and persistent long-term unemployment: the American Beveridge Curve of the Great Depression and World War II

Long-term unemployment plagued the American economy of the Great Depression. The stigma of a long unemployment spell made reentering employment difficult even during the brisk economic recovery, which lead to unemployment hysteresis and persistently high joblessness. Unemployment figures disaggregated by duration confirm the importance of hysteresis for the Great Depression, as the long-term unemployed were less likely to return to gainful employment until the war. Using the theoretical framework of the Beveridge Curve, I find that hysteresis was a significant problem during the 1930s, but that the essentially unlimited labor demand during the World War II provided jobs even to the long-term unemployed. As a result, labor market conditions in the 1950s resembled those of the 1920s prior to the Depression and so the labor market scars of the Great Depression were healed.     

浅谈融资融券业务引起的财务风险及控制

融资融券是投资者向证券公司或者其他中介机构在提供了一定的担保物之后借入资金买入证券或者借入证券并卖出的交易行为. 融资融券业务给资本市场带来了新的发展机遇的同时也给证券市场中各个主体带来了巨大的财务风险. 如何有效的防范和控制这些风险已成为融资融券业务中所要研究的一项重要课题. 文章就我国当前融资融券业务中财务风险的防范与控制问题进行分析与论述,首先阐述了融资融券的内涵及其治理体制,继而分析了融资融券业务中证券公司、投资者以及作为标的证券的上市公司所面临的各项财务风险,提出了融资融券业务中各个主体进行风险防范与控制的对策措施.     

我国房地产周期波动与经济周期的实证分析（1979-2008）

改革开放近30年来,我国房地产业总的发展趋势是持续快速增长,但是通过研究表明也存在着有规律的波动。由于房地产业在国民经济发展中的基础性、先导性以及高相关性等特征,特别是经历了近30年发展的今天,对房地产行业周期波动研究的意义就尤为重要。本文采用增长率直接法、H-P滤波法分析了我国房地产业的短周期、中周期和中长周期波动。研究结果表明,自1978年以来,我国房地产业经历了9次短周期波动、2次中周期波动。     

河南省旅游演艺的现状分析与前景展望

河南演艺旅游就是把厚重的中原文化以灵活的方式和动态的演绎展现在游客面前．进而满足广大游客的多重审美需求。河南发展演艺产业有着得天独厚的优势，在新形势下，顺应时代发展的演艺文化＋旅游的产业模式应运而生并取得了明显的成功。河南演艺旅游现状是缺乏创新、商业运作思路单一，未来的发展还需高规格、大手笔、大制作并加大推广力度。     

二战期间美国与中共有限合作之历史及启示

在第二次世界大战中,美国与中共进行了有限的联合抗战,为世界反法西斯战争最终取得胜利做出了贡献.美国之所以能够与中共合作,是因为当时双方的共同战略利益大大超过了双方的分歧;之所以只能有限合作,是因为美国与中共之间存在巨大的意识形态差异.考察这段历史,能为处理当今中美关系提供有益启示.     

美国农业的高关税与贸易保护——以一战后为例

美国农业随着第一次世界大战的结束由繁荣步入萧条。为解决农业的危机,美国回归到高关税的传统,实行农业的贸易保护,来保护美国农业的国内市场,避免外来农产品的竞争。而广大农民进一步要求政府实行干预,缩小工农业价格的“剪刀差”。事实证明,自由放任主义已不符合时代发展的需要。政府对农业实行价格补贴,这是解决美国农业萧条的最好出路。单纯依靠高关税、贸易保护已不可能解决农业的萧条,因为它导致了别国的贸易报复,进一步加剧了农业危机。     

欧美家族企业传承对闽商的借鉴与启示分析

在我国经济转型、海西经济建设深入开展时期,闽商家族企业顺利传承具有重要意义。闽商家族企业在思想观念上要与时俱进,在积极参考、吸收与借鉴欧美家族企业传承的成功经验与特点,做好传承计划、重视继承候选人的培养、完善家族企业管理模式、加强家族文化的培育与建设、成立家族委员会或理事会负责传承工作的推进等,努力推进家族企业顺利过渡。     

英国消除未成年贫困政策及对我国的启示

未成年贫困是英国的一个较为严重的社会问题,为了消除未成年贫困现象,英国政府在促进父母就业,为家庭提供援助,针对子女进行补贴以及提供子女照顾和教育服务等方面制定并实施了一系列政策,降低了未成年贫困率,对我国发展子女保障事业．促进社会公正具有一定的借鉴意义。     

UK money demand 1873–2001: a long-run time series analysis and event study

This paper performs a multivariate cointegration analysis of UK money demand 1873–2001, and illustrates how a long-run time series analysis may be conducted on a data set characterized by turbulent episodes and institutional changes. We suggest accounting for the effects of the two world wars by estimating additive data corrections, thereby allowing the propagation of war-time shocks to be fundamentally different from the transmission of peace-time innovations. In addition, the corrected series may be used in counterfactual event studies to assess the impacts of special events. In the empirical analysis we find a single equilibrium relationship relating velocity to opportunity costs, and we identify a significant link between excess money and inflation. After accounting for the turbulent periods, the equilibrium structure is reasonably stable over a period of 130 years. The empirical analysis was carried out using the OxMetrics software, see Doornik (2002). Ox procedures to estimate the vector equilibrium correction model with additive corrections are available from the author upon request.     

世界经济格局变化与中部地区投资战略选择的思考

作为投资拉动型经济的中部地区,面对世界经济格局变化的影响和自身投资中存在的问题,必须立足于国家扩大内需的政策,及时调整投资重点;大力推进投融资渠道多元化,着力在利用民间资本上取得突破;加强投资管理和项目策划,努力扩大战略性新兴产业投资比重;全方位优化经济发展环境,切实增强吸引投资的竞争力,从而推动投资保持合理增长。