Hong Kong’s low car dependence: lessons and prospects

Reducing car dependency, and hence traffic, have become key transport objectives of many cities and countries. Despite relatively high levels of wealth, Hong Kong has never become a car-dependent location. Using results of a survey of 340 young Hong Kong people and five focus group discussions, this paper argues that there are lessons to be learned from Hong Kong, and that transport policies, rather than population density, are mainly responsible for the low levels of car ownership and use. It also shows, however, that without even stricter policies, car ownership and use could increase substantially in the future.     

Delineating traffic congestion zones in cities: An effective approach based on GIS

Identifying congested areas for implementing road pricing is a complicated task, especially as traffic speed and other census data may not be readily available before a detailed feasibility study is commissioned. In this study, we introduce a spatial approach to identify areas with road traffic congestion within cities. The results obtained are validated against the empirical traffic speed data in four Asian cities, i.e. Bangkok, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, from 2018 to 2020. Moreover, the findings are also compared with a more detailed conventional method of using job density to identify areas of high traffic congestion. The comparisons show that the spatial approach is both efficient and effective. Through applying the method to London, Milan and Stockholm, the study also demonstrates other potential empirical applications in reviewing the boundaries of existing congestion charging zones.     

内地与香港铁路旅客联运法律研究

香港与内地法律制度存在很大差异，要通过协议方式确定直通旅客列车在运输过程中对法律差异的处理原则和方法。探讨完善内地与香港铁路旅客直通运输法律制度的必要性，在比较分析内地与香港铁路客运法律制度特点的基础上，就完善铁路旅客直通运输法律制度等问题进行研究，提出具体的立法建议，为立法部门提供参考。     

Planning for an unpredictable future: Transport in Great Britain in 2030

This paper describes a research study, which explores alternative future scenarios for Great Britain in the year 2030 and the implications these have for travel demand and transport provision. Five alternative future scenarios are represented in the GB national transport model and forecasts are obtained for trip making, traffic levels, congestion and emissions in 2030. For all scenarios it is expected that there will be significant traffic growth. Traffic growth is restricted most in scenarios including distance-based road charging on motorways and trunk roads. However, congestion and carbon dioxide emissions are most effectively limited in scenarios with congestion-based road charging, major improvements to urban public transport and investment in new fuel technologies and in improving engine efficiency.     

From a hub port city to a global supply chain management center: a case study of Hong Kong

This paper explores the critical challenges encountered in the transformation process of Hong Kong from a freight transport hub city to a knowledge-based global supply chain management center (GSCMC). The exploration involves an examination of the structural issues of the logistics industry in Hong Kong within the framework of global value chains (GVC). A questionnaire survey and a series of interviews were conducted to reveal the essential problems that the key parties of the Hong Kong logistics industry face if the transition of Hong Kong into a GSCMC is to be successful in all segments of the industry. Through a categorical analysis of logistics segments, the hurdles to the GSCMC as well as the institutional measures are also discussed in this paper.     

Port traffic risks – A study of accidents in Hong Kong waters

This paper investigates port traffic risk issues by discussing historic accidents in Hong Kong port. A total of 2012 marine accidents with 94 deaths were reported in Hong Kong waters in year 2001–2005, while 660,427 oceanic ships visited the port. A negative binomial regression model is used to analyze the record of dataset. It is found that port traffic risks are of certain pattern and collision accidents are the most popular incidents when port traffic is heavy. Passenger-type vessels have higher potential for injuries during accidents. The findings have identified statistically significant factors for improvements in managing port traffic risks.     

Do firms flee traffic congestion?

Much transport policy aims to use congestion relief measures to support economic activity, but planners know relatively little about how individual firms respond to traffic congestion. This study helps fill this gap by exploring individual firm location responses to traffic congestion within the Philadelphia metropolitan area between 2003 and 2007. This study tests whether existing, basic-industry firms flee congested areas to minimize exposure to the congestion externality. Relocation responses are estimated and compared for five separate industries (finance and insurance, health care, manufacturing, real estate and leasing, and wholesale trade) using firm-level data collected by InfoUSA and obtained from ESRI. Results suggest that congestion influences firm location decisions, but that the scale of congestion is important. While firms appear to relocate out of areas with high regionally-scaled congestion, areas with high local congestion are associated with a lower likelihood of relocating. In sum, while regional congestion appears to be a drag, local congestion appears to function as an amenity – implying that there is truth in the competing notions among engineers and economists of congestion as a diseconomy and among urban designers of congestion as an amenity.     

Maintaining competitiveness of aviation hub: Empirical evidence of visitors to China via Hong Kong by air transport

Prior studies have not extensively researched and explored the key determinants (aviation and tourism attributes) that could affect Hong Kong’s competitiveness as a transit hub for international visitors using Hong Kong as a stopover to Chinese cities when travelling by air. This study adds to that knowledge to empirically investigate Hong Kong’s eight major tourist source markets (Germany, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, the UK, and the US), and also provides an insight to policy-makers in Hong Kong to help them understand the factors that influence Hong Kong’s aviation hub competitiveness and tourism development. The findings of the study suggest that increased air transport capacity from foreign countries and Hong Kong to China, trade volumes between China and its trading partners, air transport costs, and the global financial crisis are the key factors affecting the number of visitors to China by air passing through Hong Kong as their preferred stopover. The policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

Analysing passenger network changes: The case of Hong Kong

Passenger throughput at Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) has shown steady growth since its opening. Various aspects relating to HKIA have been studied in prior literature. This paper investigated changes in HKIA's passenger network for the period of 2001–2012 and used the gravity model to examine the key factors explaining its passenger traffic flows. The findings suggested that HKIA's passenger network has changed significantly and expanded to many new different destinations. Two regions (East Asia and Southeast Asia) were the most important markets for HKIA, and most key destinations connected by Hong Kong showed healthy growth. Nine factors could explain passenger traffic flows between Hong Kong and its key destinations: Hong Kong GDP per capita, GDP per capita of destinations connected by HKIA, distance, airport hub status of the destination airport, tourist destinations connected by HKIA, numbers of passenger airlines in service, bilateral trade flows, speaking a common language and having strong cultural/colonial links with Hong Kong, and the route presence of Cathay Pacific.     

Assessment of non-recurrent traffic congestion caused by freeway work zones and its statistical analysis with unobserved heterogeneity

Freeway work zones with patching, paving, lane marking, debris removing, and weeding cause temporary capacity reduction in the freeway and may lead to non-recurrent traffic congestion. Such non-recurrent traffic congestion amounts to 10% of total traffic congestion in the U.S. and 31% in Germany. Non-recurrent traffic congestion has been estimated by using the capacity and the number of closed lanes in work zones and the upstream traffic demand of work zones. However, the number of the closed lanes may be insignificant due to operational strategies such as using the shoulder area and composing additional lanes by temporarily reducing the existing lane width to mitigate traffic congestion. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a method to quantify non-recurrent traffic congestion caused by freeway work zones based on traffic flow data and spatio-temporal work zone information. In addition, to demonstrate the efficacy of the developed method, a case study is conducted based on one-year historical traffic data and work zone data on major freeways in Korea. Then, multivariate statistical analysis with unobserved heterogeneity is performed to describe factors of non-recurrent traffic congestion caused by work zone activities. Due to the fact that a work zone project is usually implemented according to schedule, such negative impact as non-recurrent traffic congestion is inevitably produced. Thus, the results can be practical for the performance evaluation of congestion management programs for work zone by quantifying non-recurrent traffic congestion. Additionally, the results from the statistical analysis can be potentially useful in developing a forecasting model for providing travelers with traffic information such as an alternative route to escape non-recurrent traffic congestion by freeway work zones.     

The politics of congestion mitigation

Most research on congestion overlooks the political context of traffic congestion and congestion mitigation policies. While failed congestion policies around the globe are products of misguided premises and flawed analyses, they are also the products of political processes that emphasize highly visible congestion relief projects and programs over actually relieving congestion. Accordingly, this paper makes and defends four propositions. First, that public officials tend to exaggerate the consequences of (widely unpopular) metropolitan traffic congestion for political gain. Second, that (widely popular) public transit investments are unlikely to meaningfully reduce congestion. Third, that public officials can cynically use congestion as a rationale for funding for high-profile, politically-popular transportation (and, increasingly, public transit) projects. And fourth, that the experience to date suggests that various forms of transport and parking pricing offer the best hope for meaningfully reducing congestion in the coming years.     

Freeway traffic congestion in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: attitudes and policy implications

The last few years have shown an unprecedented increase in traffic congestion in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, especially on radial freeways. Unorganized distribution of land uses, inefficient traffic management, and low-cost automobile use have been major contributors to the problem. This article shows a strong awareness amongst drivers of the negative consequences of the congestion problem. Interviewees have strongly supported several land use, traffic management and transportation provision measures to alleviate freeway congestion but have strongly opposed increasing automobile travel costs. The study suggests an integrated approach to reduce the congestion problem through integrated policies for land use, economics and transportation.     

International air network structures and air traffic density of world cities

This paper examines international air passenger and cargo flows within and among Asia, Europe, and America, and the degree of air traffic density for major cities worldwide, using a basic gravity model composed of GDP, population, distance, and several dummy variables. The results reveal that many cities are strengthening their position as international air transportation hubs, especially: Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, London, Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, New York, and Miami. Finally, the results show that the air traffic density of three cities, Seoul, Hong Kong, and Amsterdam, is growing at an extraordinary rate.     

Urban freight demand forecasting: A mixed quantity/delivery/vehicle-based model

The research germinates from the statement that the cities have to solve the impacts due to freight transport in order to improve their sustainability implementing sets of city logistics measures. But city logistics measures involve several actors and choice dimensions. It is therefore important to have methods and models able to assess the effectiveness of the measures to be implemented. The current models were mainly developed to simulate some aspects of urban freight transport, and are not able to forecast many impacts of implementing traffic and transportation measures at an urban scale.This paper presents a modelling approach that tries to point out the relations existing among city logistics measures, actors and choice dimensions. It comprises three model sub-systems to estimate the quantity O–D matrices by transport service type (e.g. retailer on own account or wholesaler on own account or by carrier), the delivery O–D matrices by delivery time period, and the vehicle O–D matrices according to delivery tour departure time and vehicle type.This modelling system is a multi-stage model and considers a discrete choice approach for each decisional level. It was first tested using some data collected in the inner area of Rome, including traffic counts and interviews with retailers and truck-drivers. The model estimations were also compared with the experimental ones, and quite satisfactory results were obtained.     

The perceived destination image of Hong Kong on Ctrip.com

This study examines the perceived destination image of Hong Kong among visitors from mainland China, as revealed on the travel blog of Ctrip.com. Textual analysis and the overall evaluation scores of 2247 blog entries indicate that this image is positive in all aspects among these visitors. They are particularly impressed by the shopping experience, as both product quality and prices are considered competitive in Hong Kong. These visitors also evaluate overall food quality highly, although the high price of food and accommodation leads to the perception that Hong Kong is an expensive tourist destination. Managerial implications are discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Annual average daily traffic estimation in England and Wales: An application of clustering and regression modelling

Collection of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is of major importance for a number of applications in road transport urban and environmental studies. However, traffic measurements are undertaken only for a part of the road network with minor roads usually excluded. This paper suggests a methodology to estimate AADT in England and Wales applicable across the full road network, so that traffic for both major and minor roads can be approximated. This is achieved by consolidating clustering and regression modelling and using a comprehensive set of variables related to roadway, socioeconomic and land use characteristics. The methodological output reveals traffic patterns across urban and rural areas as well as produces accurate results for all road classes. Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest (RF) are found to outperform the traditional Linear Regression, although the findings suggest that data clustering is key for significant reduction in prediction errors.     

A socio-economic assessment of proposed road user charging schemes in Copenhagen

Road pricing, congestion charging, toll-systems and other road charging instruments are intensively discussed in many countries. Although many partial analyses of the consequences have been published, few overall socio-economic analyses have been carried out. The article presents such a socio-economic analysis of four different proposed road pricing schemes for the Copenhagen area. The purpose was to assess all benefits and costs involved, including impacts on traffic and environment, maintenance and financing costs as well as tax distortion effects. It was concluded that the socio-economic surplus of the projects depends crucially on the congestion level. With the current traffic level, road pricing will not yet be socially expedient in Copenhagen. However, if the opening year is postponed to 2015, the two most favourable schemes will turn positive. The analyses also showed that the magnitude of demand response by introducing road pricing is likely to have significant impact on the project surplus. This is an important observation because most short-term driven traffic models will then underestimate the projected surplus. Finally, it was found that the degree to which benefits outweigh costs depends considerably on the use of revenue. Although it may contribute to decreasing road congestion, recycling all of the revenue back to the transport sector turned out to be inefficient and costly.     

Modeling different penetration rates of eco-driving in urban areas: Impacts on traffic flow and emissions

Climate change and air quality are two main environmental challenges in metropolitan areas. As road transportation is one of the main contributors, public administrations are facing these problems with a number of complementary policy measures: shift to cleaner modes, new fuels and vehicle technologies, demand management, and the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) applied to transportation. Eco-driving is one of the measures that present large fuel savings at individual level. Although these savings are well documented in the literature, few studies focus on how eco-drivers driving patterns affect the surrounding vehicles and the traffic in general, and more particularly what would be the impact when the number of eco-drivers grows. Using a traffic microsimulation tool, four models in urban context have been built, corresponding to the different types of urban roads. Both the base-case and the parameters setting to simulate eco-driving have been calibrated with real data collected through floating vehicles performing the trips with normal and eco behaviors. In total, 72 scenarios were simulated, varying the type of road, traffic demand, and the percentage of eco-drivers. Then, the CO₂ and NO_x emissions have been estimated through a microscopic emission model. The results show that in scenarios with low or medium demand levels and increasing number of eco-drivers, the effects are positive in terms of emissions. On the other side, with high percentage of eco-drivers and high traffic demand, the emissions rise. Higher headways and smooth acceleration and decelerations increase congestion, producing higher emissions globally.     

Is traffic congestion overrated? Examining the highly variable effects of congestion on travel and accessibility

Congestion is universally unpopular, but is it always a problem? Are some places more “congestion-adapted” than others? Using data for Los Angeles, we examine whether the geographies of congestion and accessibility are distinct by mapping and describing them across neighborhoods. We then estimate a series of regression models of trip-making to test the net effects of traffic delays on behavior. We find that there are places where people make many trips and engage in many activities despite lots of congestion, which tend to be more central, built-up areas that host many short trips; in other places, high congestion and low activity coincide. Why the variance? While congestion can constrain mobility and reduce accessibility, traffic is also associated with agglomerations of activity and is thus a byproduct of proximity-based accessibility. Whether agglomeration and congestion have net positive or negative impacts on activity participation thus varies substantially over space. Controlling for factors such as income and working at home, we find that the effects of congestion on access depend on whether congestion-adaptive travel choices (such as walking and making shorter trips to nearby destinations) are viable. Because “congestion-adapted” places tend to host more trip-making, planners may be justified in creating more such places in order to increase accessibility, even if doing so makes absolute levels of congestion worse in the process.     

Reducing road congestion: a reality check

For some little while now, transport policy seems to be focused on massive relative increases in public transport ridership and reduction of car use, resulting in a hoped-for reduction in road congestion. Starting with concerns with vehicle emissions as far back as the mid-1980s, and moving now into more of a focus on greenhouse gases and congestion, current transport policies are aimed at reducing two perceived externalities of increasing car use—vehicular emissions and congestion. This paper seeks to check the reality of these policy directions and question whether these are desirable, let alone achievable end states. The paper starts by looking at congestion and questions whether or not it is intrinsically bad. The negative and positive aspects of congestion are explored. The concepts of accessibility and mobility are discussed, particularly in relation to congestion and capacity increases, with the idea of trying to understand better what capacity increases or increasing congestion do to these two measures. The expectation must be that congestion levels are likely to continue to increase into the future, both as a result of increasing population and also increasing real wealth and changes in preferences. This section of the paper concludes that it is within the power of the market place to offset some of the negatives of congestion.In the next section of the paper, the potentials to increase public transport ridership are examined. An illustration is provided of the likely impacts of achieving a doubling in public transport ridership in a hypothetical city. It is found that the effects of such an achievement would be relatively small on the overall congestion of the road system, and that these effects would also be likely to be fairly short-lived. At the same time, the investments that would be necessary in the public transport system are enormous, and there is relatively little likelihood that one could achieve such an increase in ridership within current development patterns. The paper also addresses the potential of congestion pricing or road user charges to impact congestion. It is concluded that charging motorists a politically acceptable amount will probably still not make significant impact on overall system congestion, while the potential for serious impacts on the economy become large if the charges are made sufficiently high or the area covered is made sufficiently large. In the final section of the paper, a number of policy directions are put forward as suggestions for how to deal with the issue of congestion, capacity, and the declining share of market of public transport. These policy directions are not generally the ones that are being pursued today. The issue of congestion pricing is revisited, and a case is made for a kilometrage charge on road users to replace most current licensing schemes.