Inequality and Crime: Separating the Effects of Permanent and Transitory Income*

Earlier studies on income inequality and crime have typically used total income or total earnings. However, it is quite likely that it is the changes in permanent rather than in transitory income that affects crime rates. The purpose of this paper is therefore to disentangle the two effects by, first, estimating region‐specific inequality in permanent and transitory income and, second, estimating crime equations with the two separate income components as explanatory variables. The results indicate that it is important to separate the two effects; while an increase in the inequality in permanent income yields a positive and significant effect on total crimes and three different property crimes, an increase in the inequality in transitory income has no significant effect. Using a traditional, aggregate, measure of income yields insignificant effects on crime.     

From college to the pros: predicting the NBA amateur player draft

The reverse-order amateur draft is an institution common to each of the major North American professional team sports. The draft is designed to give the weaker teams access to the future stars of the sport. The focus of our inquiry is how information on amateur player performance is employed by decision-makers in one sport, the National Basketball Association. Our analysis will suggest that future NBA players who score in college will see their draft position improved. This focus, though, appears to impair the ability of poor teams to improve.     

Weakened WARP and top-cycle choice rules

We propose the following weakened version of WARP: if the decision maker selects an alternative x and rejects another alternative y in some context, he cannot select y and reject x in another context. This axiom is consistent with cyclic choices. It is necessary and sufficient for the choice from every subset A of a (finite) universal set X to coincide with the weak upper-contour set of the transitive closure of some fixed complete relation at some alternative in A. Adding further simple axioms forces the choice from each subset to coincide with the top cycle (in that subset) of some fixed tournament over the universal set.     

The elasticity of derived demand, factor substitution, and product demand: Corrections to Hicks' formula and Marshall's Four Rules

The concept of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor, introduced by John Hicks and Joan Robinson over 75 years ago, has had important implications in labor economics and several areas of economic inquiry. In his The Theory of Wages (1932/1963), Hicks developed a formula that has proven very useful in relating the substitution elasticity to the derived demand for productive factors, the distribution of factor incomes, and Marshall's Four Rules. This short paper shows that the original and subsequent derivations of Hicks' celebrated formula contained a slip (that factor shares are independent of the substitution elasticity and therefore constant), presents a new derivation and a corrected formula, and demonstrates that, with the corrected formula, Marshall's First Rule based on the substitution elasticity is no longer generally valid.     

The value of life: Real risks and safety-related productivity in the Himalaya

This paper estimates the value of a statistical life from commercial Himalayan expeditions. Because deaths occur with a fair amount of regularity, fatality rates are calculated for each mountain trail and are, hence, disaggregated measures of risk. Also, since the marginal product of labor in the industry is (in part) the marginal product of safety, our revenue measures may account for unobserved safety-related productivity of guides. Guide safety is explicitly observed by market participants, and is reflected in higher wages for safer guides. Our VSL estimates are about $5 M.     

Order Choices: An Intraday Analysis of the Taiwan Stock Exchange

This paper employs order-, trade-, and quote-level data to examine the determinants of order choices and the impacts of order choices on execution quality by various investor types in the Taiwan Stock Exchange. We find marketable-quote orders have a higher degree of price aggressiveness, larger order size, higher trade value, shorter duration, and higher fill rate than behind-the-quote orders. There exists a transient order serial correlation. Different types of investors have their own preferences in order choices, while market microstructure factors, such as transitory volatility, spread, market depth, and trading interval, significantly influence stock traders’ order choices. Findings show that marketable-quote orders tend to perform better in terms of order duration. Moreover, institutional investors spend less time on completing their trades than do individuals, particularly for foreign investors after controlling all other factors.     

The 3‐day Week of 1974 and Earnings Data Reliability in the Family Expenditure Survey and the National Child Development Study*

In early 1974, an energy conservation policy limited the British workweek to 3 days. Researchers fear that earnings reports given by survey respondents during this period may not be comparable with those given in more typical circumstances. This study uses responses during and after the 3‐day week policy to estimate the degree of misreporting in the National Child Development Study (NCDS) and the Family Expenditure Survey (FES). The estimates show that very few respondents gave ‘incorrect’ 3‐day figures. In the FES, the estimated fraction of misreports is no larger than 3.2%; in the NCDS, the best estimate is 0.     

Estimating the Consequences of Unintended Fertility for Child Health and Education in Romania: An Analysis Using Twins Data*

We use the natural experiment of twins at first birth to estimate the effects of unplanned fertility on the nutritional status and school enrolment of children in Romania, a country with a unique fertility history. A first‐birth twins shock has negative impacts on children's human capital investments, particularly for later‐born siblings. We infer that harsh pronatalist policies prior to the 1989 Revolution had adverse consequences for the human capital of Romanian children, and that policies to make fertility control easier will have significant positive impacts on children's health and schooling.     

Matching,Reallocation and Changes in Earnings Dispersion*

The ‘fractal’ nature of the rise in earnings dispersion is one of its key features. In this paper, we offer a new perspective on the causes of changes in earnings dispersion, focusing on the role of labour reallocation. We set out a framework showing that job and worker reallocation affects earnings dispersion. We quantify this using a data set comprising almost the universe of workers and employers in Maryland. The changing allocation of workers to jobs played a significant role in explaining movements in the dispersion of earnings.     

Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?*

Do voters reward national leaders who are more competent economic managers, or merely those who happen to be in power when the world economy booms? Using data from 268 democratic elections held between 1978 and 1999, I compare the effect of world growth (luck) and national growth relative to world growth (competence). Both matter, but the effect of luck is larger than the effect of competence. Voters are more likely to reward competence in countries that are richer and better educated; and there is some suggestive evidence that media penetration rates affect the returns to luck and competence.     

The efficiency of top agents: An analysis through service strategy in tennis

We consider the question whether top tennis players in a top tournament (Wimbledon) employ an optimal (efficient) service strategy. While we show that top players do not, in general, follow an optimal strategy, our principal result is that the estimated inefficiencies are not large: the inefficiency regarding winning a point on service is on average 1.1% for men and 2.0% for women, implying that–by adopting an efficient service strategy–players can (on average) increase the probability of winning a match by 2.4%-points for men and 3.2%-points for women. While the inefficiencies may seem small, the financial consequences for the efficient player at Wimbledon can be substantial: the expected paycheck could rise by 18.7% for men and even by 32.8% for women. We use these findings to shed some light on the question of whether economic agents are successful optimizers.     

Accounting for labor demand effects in structural labor supply models

When assessing the effects of policy reforms on the labor market, most studies only focus on labor supply. The interaction of supply and demand is not explicitly modeled, which might lead to biased estimates of potential labor market outcomes. This paper proposes a straightforward method to remedy this shortcoming. We use information on firms' labor demand behavior and feed them into a structural labor supply model, completing the partial analysis of the labor market on the microdata level. We show the performance and relevance of our extension by introducing a pure labor supply side reform, the workfare concept, in Germany and simulating the labor market outcome of the reform. We find that demand effects offset about 25% of the positive labor supply effect of the policy reform.     

Quantification of preferences in markets

In this paper we quantify agent preferences in a market. In our framework every agent has a utility level associated with each transaction, and we assume that the probability of a feasible market transaction increases with an increase in total utility. It is surprising to observe that this simple behavioral principle induces a usually unique probability measure that can be constructed by a fast numerical algorithm. This unusual combination of a rigorous model and a fast numerical algorithm makes it possible to construct a well-defined set of preferences that implies a set of observed commodity prices.     

Technology,Labour Characteristics and Wage‐productivity Gaps*

We use plant‐level employer–employee data in production functions and wage equations to examine whether wages are based on productivity. We use a stepwise procedure to find out how the results are influenced by the kind of data that is available. The models include shares of employee groups based on age, level and field of education, and sex. The gap between the age‐related wage and productivity effects increases with age. Education increases productivity, but wage under‐compensates productivity especially for those with the highest level of non‐technical education. For women the results depend greatly on the specification and method used.     

Child-custody reform, marital investment in children, and the labor supply of married mothers

Research on child custody primarily focuses on the well-being of children following divorce. We extend this literature by examining how the prospect of joint child custody affects within-marriage investment in children through changes in household bargaining power. Variation in the timing of joint-custody reforms across states provides a natural-experiment framework with which to examine within-marriage investment in children. The probability of children's private school attendance declines by 12% in states that adopt joint-custody laws. We also find evidence linking joint-custody reform to higher rates of labor force participation for married mothers, which may indicate less time devoted household production.     

Timing of information in agency problems with hidden actions

This paper endogenizes in a standard hidden action model the point in time when a risk neutral and wealth constrained agent and the principal observe the realization of an additional signal: before the agent’s effort choice (ex ante information) or after (ex post information). In a decision problem, ex ante information does (weakly) better than ex post information because the decision maker can tailor efforts to the information. We show that this is not the case for incentive problems: a negative incentive effect arises under ex ante information that prevails even though the principal tailors the agent’s effort to the information.     

Occupational downgrading and bumping down: The combined effects of education and experience

Job competition between workers has important implications for “downgrading” and “bumping down”. To account for these phenomena, a matching model is considered in which highly educated and poorly educated workers compete for skilled jobs. An exogenous increase in the proportion of highly skilled workers increases the proportion of these workers in low-level jobs (downgrading). Another of the paper's findings is that changes in the composition of the workforce affect workers' opportunities to accumulate experience. An increase in the relative supply of highly educated workers reduces the opportunities for poorly educated workers to learn on the job. Both education and experience are required in order to access skilled jobs.     

A collective labor supply model with complementarities in leisure: Identification and estimation by means of panel data

We present a novel identification strategy for a collective labor supply model that allows for complementarities in leisure (i.e., individuals may enjoy leisure more in company of their spouse). Individual preferences and the Pareto weights (which capture the intra-household bargaining process) are identified by making use of panel data with couples and individuals who became a widow(er) in the observation period, along with the assumption that an individual's preferences can only change in a particular manner after the spouse's death. The change in preferences comes from changes in observable variables that can be controlled for (like mental health) and from the loss of the possibility to jointly enjoy leisure after the couple's dissolution. We apply the model to American households coming from the first nine waves of the Health and Retirement Study (1992-2008) and show that complementarities in leisure are indeed important when modeling spouses' labor supply choices.     

Sexual orientation and household decision making.: Same-sex couples' balance of power and labor supply choices.

This study estimates the effect of intra-household-bargaining on gay and lesbian couples' labor supplies, in order to determine how homosexual and heterosexual decision making compare, in a collective-household framework. Data from the 2000 US Census show that couples of all types exhibit a significant response to bargaining power shifts, as measured by age and non-labor-income differences between partners. Among gay, lesbian, and heterosexual cohabiting couples, a relatively young or rich partner has more bargaining power and supplies less labor, the opposite being true for his/her mate. Among married couples, the older spouse is instead more powerful, or the richer. No such patterns are found among same-sex roommates.