浙江出口型企业对汇率变动的敏感性分析--以南浔地板城为例

浙江省我国的进出口贸易大省,但是由于产业链的不完整以及初级产品的低利润,使得浙江省出口型企业的经营绩效十分容易受汇率变动的影响。作者在理论分析的基础上,利用近5年中美汇率变动和中国木板行业出口额以及南浔地板城近5年出口额,进行描述统计分析,之后基于敏感性分析,来研究汇率变动对企业经营绩效的具体影响,提出木地板出口行业对汇率变动的应对策略。本文的创新之处在于以往的相关研究均针对所有出口型企业,而本文着重关注于南浔地板这一个地方特色产业,结合地方产业独有的特点,更为精确地分析其出口对汇率的敏感性,从而为企业提出更准确、合理的避险建议。     

浙江出口型企业对汇率变动的敏感性分析——以南浔地板城为例

浙江省我国的进出口贸易大省,但是由于产业链的不完整以及初级产品的低利润,使得浙江省出口型企业的经营绩效十分容易受汇率变动的影响。作者在理论分析的基础上,利用近5年中美汇率变动和中国木板行业出口额以及南浔地板城近5年出口额,进行描述统计分析,之后基于敏感性分析,来研究汇率变动对企业经营绩效的具体影响,提出木地板出口行业对汇率变动的应对策略。本文的创新之处在于以往的相关研究均针对所有出口型企业,而本文着重关注于南浔地板这一个地方特色产业,结合地方产业独有的特点,更为精确地分析其出口对汇率的敏感性,从而为企业提出更准确、合理的避险建议。     

人民币汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响

汇率作为外汇市场上的一种重要标识,起着调节国际贸易,方便外汇市场上各国货币相互交换的比价的作用。自从改革开放来,国家打开了对外开放的大门,使得我国的经济对外依赖度很高。让汇率与国情相结合,分析汇率变动如何影响着我国的进出口贸易。本文作者通过对1994年以来的汇率变动分析图来向我们展示自改革开放以来汇率对我国进出口贸易的影响,得出人民币汇率的升降关乎着我国的进出口贸易,也牵动着我国的经济影响。     

人民币汇率变动对江苏省外贸出口影响的实证分析——基于贸易引力模型

文章收集了1997年～2008年江苏省与8个主要外贸出口国家和地区的相关数据资料,江苏省GDP和江苏省人均GDP国民经济指标资料,结合国际经济理论,引用双边贸易引力模型,运用计量软件研究人民币汇率变动对江苏省贸易出口的影响。通过实际验证,人民币汇率变动与江苏省出口量的相关系数存在显著关系,说明江苏省的出口贸易对汇率变动有一定敏感度。根据分析结果,对人民币汇率变动对江苏省贸易收支的影响进行评价并提出了相应的政策建议,从而减少汇率波动引起的出口压力,促进江苏省外贸出口经济的发展。     

人民币汇率变动与我国贸易顺差构成——基于不同贸易主体的实证研究

汇率是开放经济环境下的核心工具变量,汇率波动会直接影响到进出口商的贸易利润。由于不同贸易主体的经营管理水平、经济实力大都不同,其贸易进出口对同等程度汇率变动的响应应该是不同的。文章研究了汇率变动对外资企业、国有企业、集体企业以及其他类型企业贸易差额发展变化的影响。研究发现,各类型企业的外贸顺差额变化与汇率及世界需求变动之间都存在长期稳定关系。外商投资企业的外贸顺差受汇率及世界经济发展状况的影响程度比较高,国有企业与集体企业外贸顺差受汇率及世界经济状况的影响模式是一致的,但是国有企业外贸差额受世界需求变动的影响程度要高于汇率变动的影响程度。     

人民币汇率变动对中国水产品贸易影响的实证分析 ——以1992-2017年藻类产品贸易数据为例

近年来,人民币汇率的变化一再成为国内外关注的焦点。汇率是国际贸易中的重要调整杠杆和抓手。人民币汇率的变动所带来的影响将不可避免地波及到中国产品的进出口贸易。本文选取1992-2017年的重要水产品(藻类产品)出口贸易及总产量的年度数据及汇率的年度数据,采用单位根检验,协整检验和状态空间模型,实证研究人民币实际汇率变化对中国藻类出口贸易的影响。状态空间模型可以获得汇率与出口之间影响的时变系数,这比静态模型更准确和真实。研究结果表明,人民币汇率与中国藻类产品出口贸易存在协整关系,人民币贬值可以刺激藻类产品的出口。研究人民币汇率变动对中国藻类产品贸易之间的关系,有利于将汇率制度做进一步的完善,根据人民币汇率变动对贸易的影响制定相应的贸易政策,同时尽可能避免汇率风险。     

人民币实际有效汇率的分解和马歇尔—勒纳条件的修正

马歇尔-勒纳条件是探讨货币贬值改善贸易收支的规律,本文根据人民币实际有效汇率的特点,把它分解为美元有效汇率和人民币对美元汇率之积形式,在此基础之上,本文重新考察货币贬值改善贸易收支的条件,对传统的马歇尔-勒纳条件进行修正。从我们研究中可以看出美元实际有效汇率变化对马歇尔-勒纳条件修正的重要作用,这包括美元有效汇率对人民币汇率弹性和人民币在美元有效汇率中的权重的两种影响。另一方面,即使人民币实际有效汇率贬值存在“J”曲线效应,人民币对美元实际汇率贬值,“J”曲线是否存在还要依赖一定的条件。本文实证研究结果显示出口（或进口）与人民币对美元实际汇率、美元实际有效汇率指数和外国收入（或国内收入）之间存在着显著的协整关系,美元实际有效汇率和人民币对美元实际汇率也存在显著的协整关系。从弹性的变化来看,修正的马歇尔-勒纳条件成立,同时人民币对美元实际汇率贬值有利于改善贸易收支,美元实际有效汇率贬值会恶化中国贸易收支。而对“J”曲线效应的实证研究显示无论是人民币实际有效汇率,还是人民币对美元实际汇率贬值和美元实际有效汇率贬值,我国“J”曲线效应均不显著。     

涉外企业运用金融衍生工具的现状、问题与对策

人民币汇率形成机制改革后，我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的、更富弹性的浮动汇率制度。在此背景下，中国人民银行副行长吴晓灵指出，汇率变动反映市场变化，中国企业应该学会适应并按照自己的实际需求通过金融衍生工具锁定风险。     

测度金砖国家间双边贸易成本弹性

传统引力模型基本上以CES效用函数为基础,无法测度贸易成本降低对不同贸易伙伴国间贸易流量的差异化影响程度。Novy（2012）超越对数引力模型弥补了这点不足,本文基于该模型对金砖五国在2000~2010年双边贸易成本弹性做了测度。结果显示金砖五国贸易成本弹性在[245,0.48]间取值不等,变化幅度较大。俄罗斯平均贸易成本弹性最高（36.66）,南非次之（29.31）,中国最低（1.84）。南非对巴西和中国贸易成本弹性差值比最高,说明降低贸易成本对贸易小国影响程度更大。     

汇率传递——基于中美贸易的实证研究

在2005年以来人民币升值压力不断增加的大背景下,本文借助汇率传递的基本方程,选用中美贸易1995年1月至2010年7月的月度数据研究人民币升值对于美国进口产品价格的影响。实证研究表明中国出口厂商在美国市场有一定的市场势力,中国出口厂商通过调整生产成本来适应汇率变动,中国出口厂商对人民币升值有长期预期。     

International business cycles and risk sharing with uncertainty shocks and recursive preferences

This paper analyzes the effects of output volatility shocks on the dynamics of consumption, trade flows and the real exchange rate, in a two-country, two-good world with consumption home bias, recursive preferences, and complete financial markets. When the risk aversion coefficient exceeds the inverse of the intertemporal substitution elasticity, then an exogenous rise in a country׳s output volatility triggers a wealth transfer to that country, to compensate for the greater riskiness of the country׳s output stream. This risk sharing transfer raises the country׳s consumption, lowers its trade balance and appreciates its real exchange rate. In the recursive preferences framework here, volatility shocks account for a non-negligible share of the fluctuations of net exports, net foreign assets and the real exchange rate. These shocks help to explain the high empirical volatility of the real exchange rate and the disconnect between relative consumption and the real exchange rate.     

DATA REVISION AND MARKET RESPONSE: THE CASE OF UNITED STATES TRADE BALANCE ANNOUNCEMENTS†

ABSTRACT In this paper we study economic news, as reflected in the announcements of the United States trade balance by the Commerce department, to illustrate the importance of revised data versus preliminary data to economic agents. A new methodology has been developed here to study how agents in the exchange market respond to these monthly trade balance announcements and consequently, move the dollar's exchange rate. In contrast to previous studies where agent reactions to only preliminary trade figures were analyzed, this method is applied to examine market reactions to the preliminary and revised trade balance figures.     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the Malaysia-China commodity trade

Previous research that considered the response of the trade balance between Malaysia and China to exchange rate changes used a linear model and did not find any significant long-run link. Suspecting that the results suffer from aggregation bias as well as ignoring nonlinear adjustment of the exchange rate, we consider the trade balance of 59 industries that trade between the two countries and use a nonlinear ARDL model to show that almost a third of the industries are affected by ringgit depreciation against the yuan, in an asymmetric manner. The largest industry, which accounts for more than 25% of the trade, is found to benefit from ringgit depreciation while not being hurt by appreciation. In total, 15 industries that account for 40% of the trade enjoy this property.     

The exchange value of the dollar and the U.S. trade balance: An empirical investigation based on cointegradon and Granger causality tests

This article performs tests of Granger causality in the relationships between the nominal ad real exchange rates of the dollar and the U.S. trade balance as well as its price and quantity components over the period 1973:IIQ–1989:IIIQ. Our results suggest: (i) weak statistical evidence of unidirectional causality running from the nominal exchange rate to import prices and nominal trade balance (ii) no statistical support for the proposition that the real exchange rate simply “accommodates” changes in the real trade balance, and (iii) strong (no) causal links between the nominal and real exchange rates and export (import) volume. We tentatively conclude that movements in the exchange rate have a rather limited effect on the trade balance and that this effect is more likely to materialize on the export side of the trade balance.     

人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响

本文从空间和时间两个角度全面考察了人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响。结果表明,人民币汇率的变化会显著影响我国的进出口。但是,这种影响程度在1994年以后明显地出现了下降趋势。同时,人民币汇率变化对我国进出口的调整存在明显的J曲线效应,其中进口变动大致滞后于汇率变动2个季度,而出口则滞后1个季度,滞后期限均短于西方发达国家。本文分析了其中的原因并提出了相关建议。     

The Exchange Rate and the Trade Balances of Turkish Agriculture,Manufacturing and Mining

This paper investigates and compares the response to the exchange rate changes of trade balances of three Turkish sectors; agriculture, manufacturing and mining. The impact on trade balance of exchange rate changes is examined using the trade balance model employed in Bahmani-Oskooee [1985, Review of Economics and Statistics 67: 500]. Analysis is conducted based on the quarterly data from 1986: I to 1998: III. It is observed that in response to domestic currency depreciation trade balance of each of all three sectors first improves, then deteriorates and then improves again. Despite exhibiting similar pattern of reaction to the exchange rate change in the short run, long-run or overall response of trade balance differs across the sectors; while trade balances of both manufacturing and mining improve in the long run, agricultural trade balance worsens as a result of domestic-currency depreciation.     

Exchange Rate Adjustment in Partially Liberalized Economy

This paper develops a model of exchange rate determination in partially liberalized post-socialist economy that operates under soft budget constraints in nontradable sectors. The model captures the factors that determine the evolution of a country's external balance during the initial phase of economic liberalization. Three types of disturbances are the center of analysis: liberalization of trade and foreign exchange regime, devaluation, and price liberalization. We show that the real exchange rate appreciation may either improve or worsen the trade balance depending on the sources of this appreciation. Thus, we argue that the real exchange rate cannot reflect true country's competitiveness unless all sectors are equally exposed to hard budget constraints. The model implications are further analyzed through the empirical evidence on the relationship between the real exchange rate and trade balance in three selected East European countries.     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Turkish bilateral trade balances

Previous studies that have assessed the short-run and the long-run effects of exchange rate changes on Turkey’s trade balance with its major partners relied upon a linear adjustment process that could not find much support for favorable effects of exchange rate changes. In this paper, once we separate real appreciations from real depreciations via the partial sum concept and introduce nonlinearity into the estimation and testing procedure, we show that the effects of exchange rate changes are asymmetric. More precisely, while lira appreciation does not have any significant effects on Turkey’s bilateral trade balances, lira depreciation has significantly favorable effects on Turkey’s trade balance with its European partners (France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and Great Britain).