An Evaluation of Keynes's Projected Possibilities

Abstract . At the onset of the Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes made some startlingly optimistic predictions about the economic possibilities his grandchildren might face a century later. Within the next 100 years, Keynes proclaimed, technological progress would solve the economic problem facing human beings, individuals would devote themselves to noneconomic pursuits instead, and no one would continue to strive for relative goods. Was Keynes right? This article examines each of Keynes's three main prophecies and concludes that, even though over 75 years have transpired since they were made, and even though they were founded in part on the belief held by most classical economists in the value of technological progress and economic growth, not one of Keynes's predictions has been realized.     

Keynes' Investments

Abstract . It is well known that in The General Theory, Keynes is very critical of the stock exchange market, an institution, he says, that “cannot be claimed as one of the outstanding triumphs of laissez-faire capitalism.” At the same time much of his income was derived from speculation in commodities, stocks and foreign exchange. Some questions raised by Keynes’ way of making a living are addressed. When did his market activities begin? Did he, as some detractors allege, take advantage of insider information? What principles of behavior did he follow in his buying and selling? What was his attitude toward his way of making a living? And, above all do the views expressed in The General Theory reflect the influence of Keynes’ market experience? It is suggested that there is, in fact, a close relation between Keynes’ financial experiences and some of his distinctive economic theories. His experiences, interpreted in the light of his Apostolic-Moorean beliefs, caused the deeply critical attiiude toward the whole financial system that one finds in The General Theory's chapter 12.     

On the Mythology of the Keynesian Multiplier: Unmasking the Myth and the Inadequacies of Some Earlier Criticisms

Keynes’s multiplier story invites acceptance by building on the fact that people typically consume only a fraction of their income and that such purchases are incomes for sellers. By misrepresenting the classical definition of saving and the meaning of Say’s Law, Keynes laid the grounds for extolling the virtues of consumption spending as determining income and employment growth. But the mythology of the multiplier story becomes clear when we ask, “From where do people find the means to purchase consumption goods, other than production?” The inadequacies of several earlier criticisms stem from their failure to focus on this fundamental point.     

Reading Keynes' Treatise on Probability

A Treatise on Probability was published by John Maynard Keynes in 1921. The Treatise contains a critical assessment of the philosophical foundations of probability and of the statistical methodology at the time. We review the aspects of the book that are most related with statistics, avoiding uninteresting neophyte's forrays into philosophical issues. In particular, we examine the arguments provided by Keynes against the Bayesian approach, as well as the sketchy alternative of a return to Lexis' theory of analogies he proposes. Our conclusion is that the Treatise is a scholarly piece of work looking at past advances rather than producing directions for the future.     

The Anti-Benthamism of J. M. Keynes: Implications for The General Theory

A bstract Keynes severely criticized the "Benthamite tradition," the overvaluation of the "economic criterion" He found "the love of money" corrosive of community and esthetic values and an encouragement to reckless exploitation of places that should be in the public domain In "Art and the State," he proposes the rebuilding of large sections of modern cities to rekindle popular feelings of beauty and community values
One of the factors behind this philosophy was G E Moore's Principia Ethica (1903) It criticizes Bentham for committing "the naturalistic fallacy" of confusing means with ends and idealizes two "goods" in themselves, the pleasure of human relations and the enjoyment of beauty in nature and art These ideals Keynes saw undermined by the Benthamite tradition
Such criticism is the "moral-political paradigm" on which The General Theory is erected Minute calculation of advantages and disadvantages, on which classical economics is based, is rejected Behind consumption and investment functions are sociological and psychological factors, "animal spirits," and the like Calculation prevails in the stock and bond markets ( liquidity preference )–to everybody's sorrow The proposed slow elimination of institutions that make liquidity preference possible, and of the rentier , follow logically Econometrics , viewed as the tool of the overvaluation of the economic criterion, is also rejected. In many articles Keynes aimed at much more than revolutionizing political economy , he aimed at weaning England from Benthamite utilitarianism and raising the cultural values of the populace By 1938 he knew that he had failed.     

“东方凯恩斯”管仲的经济哲思——浅谈管仲与凯恩斯经济思想之略同

本文以管仲的经济思想为基础,通过对比管仲与凯恩斯在宏观管理和市场经济中类似的经济理论,从而找寻先哲留下的智慧。     

Was Keynes a Monetarist?

Bernard Foley of the University of Liverpool contests Rosaline Levaci's charge in Economic Affairs, Vol. 4, No. 3. Keynes acknowledged, she insists, that real wages influenced employment.     

Real Wages and Employment: Four Great Economists: Pigou, Simons, Keynes and Hansen

Professor Eli Schwartz of Lehigh University reviews the theories of Pigou, Simons, Keynes and Hansen concerning unemployment. He concludes that we are in a'Pigovian'world where unemployment is due to defects in the labour market.     

西北省会城市居民消费水平和消费结构分析——以兰州市为例

根据凯恩斯提出的消费函数理论,建立居民消费水平模型,并选取1998-2008年兰州市居民消费水平变化的数据,运用Eviews软件对兰州市居民的消费水平和消费结构的变化进行了实证研究。研究结果可为提高居民消费水平、完善居民消费结构提供政策建议。     

Economic policies: still shackled by post-war euphoria?

This country's economic and social policies remain dominated by the war-time consensus: Keynes and Beveridge and the full-employment White Paper, and belief that the state is best qualified to'run the economy.'The so-called monetarist and Thatcher revolutions failed to re-shape policy-making. Dependence on the rate of interest to suppress inflation, the staple of successive governments'macroeconomic policy, represents a neo-Keynesian survival and is a major source of our distempers. It needs reconsideration ab initio .     

Focus on Economic Theory Keynes on the "Nature of Economic Thinking": The Principle of Non-Neutrality of Choice and the Principle of Non-Neutrality of Money

In the last two decades there has been a flourishing of writings on the methodological approach of Keynes. Whereas broad interpretations of Keynes's work may have a role to play for future economics the main argument of this paper is to propose a return to the theoretical foundations of a truly Keynesian economics. In the main economic writings of Keynes it is possible to discern a body of beliefs, which is (a) consistent in its own terms and (b) susceptible of being used in the explanation of different realities. That body of beliefs is grounded on (1) the principle of non-neutrality of choice and (2) the principle of non-neutrality of money. Both principles were essential parts of the core of Keynes's A Treatise on Money (1930) and The General Theory (1936), and should be used as foundation for future development of Keynesian economics at the methodological as well as at the theoretical level.     

Fisher, Keynes, and the Corridor of Stability

A bstract .   This chapter draws on the debt-deflation process of Fisher (1933 ) as well as on Keynes (1936 , chapter 19) and Tobin (1975 , 1980 ) to explore the concept of a corridor of stability, where an economy will be self-adjusting only for demand shocks small enough to leave it within that corridor.     

A keynesian macro-econometric model of the UK: 1955–1984

In this paper we present a small Keynesian macro-economic model in which wage-price determination is linked to the working of goods and money markets. By explicitly treating the Keynes effect we derive a general expression for the employment-money supply elasticity, and draw the IS-LM loci in the employment-interest rate space Our empirical specification allows for short-run disequilibrium dynamic adjustments around the static long-run relations predicted by the theoretical model. By careful use of our specification search strategy we obtain a statistically sound econometric model, which exhibits sensible long-run properties. A remarkable finding implied by our estimates is that equilibrium unemployment is negatively affected by both money supply and incomes policy.     

HAROLD WILSON'S DEVALUATION: A SALUTARY LESSON

The 1967 sterling devaluation opened the final act of the Keynesian epoch. The assurance ‘that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank’ had not been devalued, rests upon a ‘fixed price’ assumption invoked by John Maynard Keynes for the 1930s. It carried the implication that a currency revaluation is the only price change that is relevant to international competitiveness. That is nonsense. Devaluation succeeds in readjusting international payments only if it reduces the value of the pound in our pocket, purse or bank.     

Buses in the Market

Keynes wrote in 1936 that 'Practical men, who behove themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usualy the slaves of some defunct economist'. John Hibbs, still happily far from being defunct, assesses the extent to which ideas can shape public policy if their advocates are prepared to withstand the opposition of vested inteiests who stand to lose from change.     

CRASS KEYNESIANISM

Keynesianism supports make-work schemes without regard for consumers' preferences. The impact of fiscal and monetary policy in corrupting the flow of inter-temporal production is entirely discounted. Where Keynes argued that long-term considerations should not obstruct the implementation of short-term palliatives for immediate problems, Keynesianism fosters belief in the judgement of the state across a wide range of expenditures. In effect, however, Keynesian concepts of aggregate demand and the income multiplier set no basis for sound economic policy.     

what next after the ERM debacle?

What sort of policy should the government pursue after quitting the ERM. Five leading monetary economists give their views on what the government should do now. J.M. Keynes provides a far-sighted commentary from the past and G.R. Steele speculates whether it was ever reasonable to expect a single currency to evolve from the ERM.     

Keynesian economics in the twenty-first century1

The Keynesian theory as set out by Keynes embodied an Achilles heel which he himself half understood but chose to ignore. It is also ignored by “post-Keynesians” and “New Keynesians”. The trouble is not in the labour market but in the goods market, where The General Theory, at least up to Chapter 19, definitely assumes perfect competition. But on that assumption the possibility of a Keynesian recession requires that employers behave with highly inconsistent expectations. Once, however, the assumption of perfect competition in the goods market is replaced by imperfect competition or oligopoly, the Keynesian theory re-emerges not only as robust, but also totally relevant to the 21st century.     

GREAT CRASH/CREDIT CRUNCH: FRIEDRICH HAYEK'S BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

Friedrich Hayek's foreboding of the Great Crash would have been equally relevant for the Credit Crunch. It was based upon precepts that have never been taken up by the economics mainstream. Although Maynard Keynes set no store by quantification, mathematical modelling of the economy and statistical analysis saturate the journals. Thoughtful analysis per se carries little weight if it does not lend itself to econometric confirmation, which means that Hayek's microeconomic analysis of the impact of easy-money policy and the mechanisms that best explain the débâcles of 1929 and 2008 are again likely to be ignored.     

W. H. Hutt (1899–1988): Free Markets and Social Justice

W.H. Hutt reaffirmed the principles of classical economics and classical liberalism and, by applying them to urgent issues he observed in the world around him, he demonstrated the contemporary relevance of freedom and competitive institutions. A wide‐ranging critique of Keynes was founded upon a classical analysis of the labour market, while his trenchant opposition to apartheid advanced along economic and political paths. Hutt questioned the justice of the accumulation of wealth from the exploitation of monopoly power over generations. In all of these respects there are affinities between Hutt's thought and that of ‘Bleeding Heart Libertarians’.