世界经济结构性变化与经常帐户失衡

本文认为,亚洲依赖美国市场来弥补需求,美国依赖亚洲的廉价出口和官方储备来抑制通胀和实现低成本融资,二者形成共生模式,经常帐户失衡是其枢纽。模式形成的根本原因在于世界经济结构性变化,即经济全球化和金融膨胀。经济全球化造成的竞争加剧和廉价出口抑制了商品通胀,为发达国家尤其是美国的货币扩张政策提供了空间,后者转而推动了金融膨胀。基于金融膨胀的负债消费扩大了美国的需求和进口,因此美国与亚洲为主的其他国家之间形成经常帐户失衡。但失衡局面不断腐蚀美元信用,使得模式不可持续,因此利益各方将会追求渐进式调整。     

2009年国际外汇市场展望——全球经济下滑与经济力量变迁的方向

该文分析指出,由于世界各国的政策制定者都在积极地干预市场,次贷危机有望在2009年得到缓解。展望2009年国际外汇市场,除日元以外的亚洲货币将持续走弱,下半年才会有一定程度回升;市场发展将呈现经济去杠杆化、全球经济继续下滑、经济力量变迁等特征,而去杠杆化将有益于美元升势和日元走强。此外,因中国和印度正处于快速工业化的进程中,劳动生产率与结构性调整均获得了巨大改进,将有利于亚洲国家货币的升值。     

经济全球化趋势与应对战略

经济全球化是20世纪90年代以来,特别是亚洲金 融危机以来使用最为频繁的经济词汇。中国加入世界贸易组织后,将在更大程度上融入经济全球化这一过程,要在这一大背景下对经济发展战略作出正确抉择,必须认真研究经济全球化问题。 一、如何理解经济全球化 经济全球化最早是由T·莱维1985年提出的,但至今尚未有公认的定义,有人从生产力运动的角度分析,认为经济全球化是一个历史过程,在这个过程中,生产要素     

欧债危机揭示全球化的制度挑战

欧债危机具有自身内在的必然性,绝非仅仅是国际金融危机的延续,而是从一个侧面揭示了经济全球化的深刻制度挑战。本文试图从经济全球化深层规律的角度深入分析欧洲主权债务危机的本质,并从主权债务危机中进一步把握经济全球化的未来。欧债危机的背景:全球化为欧元区带来机会和挑战全球化的发展为建立欧元区创造了条件。欧元作为不同主权国家分     

我国银行业重组浅探

<正> 90年代亚洲出现的金融风暴,给亚洲经济金融带来的严重危机波及全球,造成社会动荡,有的国家至今仍未走出金融风暴的阴影。如何防范和化解金融风险,提高抗风险能力是几乎所有国家都共同关心的课题。中国也不例外,入世加快了我国金融业融入金融全球化的进程,更迫切需要我们加快银行业的战略重组步伐,增强我国银行业的抗风险能力和国际竞争能力。本文拟对这一问题进行初步探讨。     

香港创业板市场运作机制分析

一、香港创业板市场产生的背景 1997年下半年，香港经济结构性危机在亚洲金融风暴中充分暴露出来。亚洲金融危机过后，香港特区政府一直在努力寻求经济复苏的办法。囿于地域特征，香港不可能建立自己的高科技园区，唯一可恃的是自由透明的资本市场。另一方面，香港作为远东金融中心的地位正日益受到新加坡、上海等城市的挑战。     

亚洲金融危机对人民币汇率制度改革的启示

在世界经济全球化的今天,汇率作为联系各国经济纽带,对于各国经济的发展以及世界经济的平稳运行都有着重要作用。为了适应经济体制改革的需要,人民币在1994年实行汇率并轨。此后,人民币汇率体制也因亚洲金融危机和世界经济危机的影响进行过改革,收获了一些成效,但仍存在着人民币升值和通货膨胀等问题,需要进一步改革。本文通过研究在亚洲金融危机的影响下,对危机主要受害国和中国的一些宏观经济指标进行比较分析,认为人民币体制改革实现的最终目标是实行浮动汇率制度,而且汇率体制的改革要逐步进行。     

是钉住汇率制度酿成了泰铢危机吗?——泰国的汇率市场化改革和资本项目开放研究

随着经济全球化进程的加快,钉住汇率制度可能成为一国金融危机的诱因.泰国汇率市场化和资本项目开放的过程表明,泰铢危机是1997-1998年亚洲金融危机的导火索,泰铢危机的根源是钉住美元的汇率制度,泰国是在亚洲金融危机中被迫放弃钉住汇率制度,走向浮动汇率制度的.     

中国养老保险制度改革的政策选择——老龄化、城市化、全球化的视角

中国的养老保险制度改革不仅要考虑到人口老龄化的挑战,还需看到经济全球化提出的要求,以及城市化带来的机遇。本文基于详实的数据和深入的前期研究,指出中国的养老保险制度改革仍然具有一些独特的空间,包括老年劳动参与的提高,劳动生产率的提升,养老保险覆盖面的扩大,保险基金投资回报率的提高等。中国的老龄化发生在经济发展水平相对较低的阶段,在经济全球化时代,需要权衡缴费率和国际竞争力之间的矛盾。与人口老龄化相伴随的是城市化,将农村转移劳动力纳入城镇社会保障体系可以在较长时间内改变体系的负担率,同时农村老年人口绝对数量的下降,也可为政府补贴增长提供条件。长期而言,老龄化社会的养老能力根本上取决于劳动生产率的不断提高。     

推进我国劳动关系国际化的因素分析及对策探讨

经济全球化在促进各国生产力的提高的同时也改变着生产关系,劳动关系在当代的最大特点,就是各国的劳动关系都受经济全球化的影响和制约。经济全球化的实质是资本的全球化,相比之下,劳动作为资本的对应物在与资本的对抗中处于一种更加不利的弱势地位。本文从三个层面对我国劳动关系进行国际化调整进行了分析,并对我国在劳动关系方面如何与国际化接轨做出了一些思考。     

The effect of globalization and legal environment on voluntary disclosure

We examine how interactions with foreign capital, product, and labor markets affect the disclosure practices of non-U.S. multinational firms. Drawing on literature related to multinationals, country-level legal institutions, and accounting disclosures, we expect that the relation between globalization and voluntary disclosure will be conditioned by the legal environment in a firm's home country. Specifically, while firms from countries with a strong legal environment (e.g., common-law countries) already face pressure for good disclosure, globalization can increase the benefits associated with good disclosure to firms from weak legal environments (e.g., civil-law countries). We use a self-constructed voluntary disclosure index and hand-collected disclosure and foreign activity data for 643 non-U.S. firms from 30 countries for 2003. We find a significant interaction between globalization and the legal environment. This indicates that for the same level of globalization, there is more voluntary disclosure for firms based in weak legal environments. Our results suggest that globalization is an important variable that has been overlooked in much of the previous cross-country research.     

中国制造业参与国际产业转移面临的新问题及对策分析

在经济全球化步伐加快、我国更深层次地融入国际经济循环的大背景下,我国制造业必须充分利用国际产业转移规律和时机,积极地、有选择地承接我国具有一定优势的产业,逐步向外转移部分产业,以推动我国制造业进一步发展。目前我国制造业参与国际产业转移面临着消费市场变化、资源与要素约束、环境约束、企业约束等一系列新问题,必须采取相应措施,促进我国制造业更快、更深地参与国际产业转移。     

Economic Globalization and Financial Development in East Asia: A Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis

This study examines the role of economic globalization in financial development in eight East Asian economies. The heterogeneous panel cointegration test reveals that cointegration is present among economic globalization, institutions, financial development, real gross domestic product per capita, and financial reforms. The Granger causality test results indicate that economic globalization has a significant causal influence on institutional quality, and institutional reforms have in turn facilitated and supported financial development, in particular of the banking sector in East Asia. Economic globalization is also found to have a favorable causal impact on stock market development without going through the institutional quality channel.     

Global work force 2000: the new world labor market

Just as there are global markets for products, technology, and capital, managers must now think of one for labor. Over the next 15 years, human capital, once the most stationary factor in production, will cross national borders with greater and greater ease. Driving the globalization of labor is a growing imbalance between the world's labor supply and demand. While the developed world accounts for most of the world's gross domestic product, its share of the world work force is shrinking. Meanwhile, in the developing countries, the work force is quickly expanding as many young people approach working age and as women join the paid work force in great numbers. The quality of that work force is also rising as developing countries like Brazil and China generate growing proportions of the world's college graduates. Developing nations that combine their young, educated workers with investor-friendly policies could leapfrog into new industries. South Korea, Taiwan, Poland, and Hungary are particularly well positioned for such growth. And industrialized countries that keep barriers to immigration low will be able to tap world labor resources to sustain their economic growth. The United States and some European nations have the best chance of encouraging immigration, while Japan will have trouble overcoming its cultural and language barriers.     

Labor Markets and Adjustment in Open Asian Economies: The Republic of Korea and Malaysia

This article deals with the adjustment following external shocksin two open Asian economies: the Republic of Korea and Malaysia.There were important differences in the economic structure ofthe two countries as well as significant differences in theway external events produced "crises" that interrupted theirdynamic economic growth. Detailed analyses of economic cyclesin the two decades preceding 1987–88 show that the behaviorof factor markets, particularly the markets for labor and foreignexchange, helped Korea to adjust quickly to the shocks but inMalaysia actually caused the crisis to deepen. For economies heavily dependent on exports, the unit cost oflabor in dollars is of central importance as an index of thecompetitiveness of exports and hence of their ability to mounta sustained recovery after a difficult period. Accordingly,the heart of the analysis is the determination of the unit costof labor and the factors affecting its change throughout thecycles. Concentration on this critical variable helps to spotlightthe crucial differences in the factor markets of the two economies.     

How International Exchange, Technology, and Institutions Affect Workers: An Introduction

In a world of deepening trade links, rapid technological change,and weakening institutions, workers in rich and poor countriesalike are concerned about their incomes and the security oftheir work. In contrast to the substantial quantity of analysison industrial countries, relatively little careful work hasbeen done on these issues in developing countries, especiallyin the context of the recent globalization of economic relations.Empirical work suggests that disequalizing trends in some developingcountries may have been caused by the entry of low-income countriessuch as China into world production or by the greater qualityand technological requirements of contemporary trade in goods.Whatever the source, these results raise questions about theviability of institutional mechanisms for supporting the incomesecurity and working conditions of workers. Many labor marketregulations are already ineffective owing to weak enforcementcapabilities. However, in most developing countries, there willbe a rising fraction of workers in formal labor contracts, risingdemands for formal mechanisms for dealing with income insecurity,and a potentially larger role for unions in an important segmentof the work force. Thus, it is of increasing importance to setthe policy and institutional framework in a fashion that isboth consistent with competitive pressures and supportive ofworkers' participation and security.     

对新自由主义进行马克思主义批判研究的价值分析

新自由主义是全球化趋势的理论基础,它也正在迫使加入到经济全球化之中的国家采取市场机制作为经济发展的基本模式.本文探讨了在当前世界经济走向全球化,我国经济处转型时期的关键阶段,对"新自由主义"进行深入、系统的研究的意义.     

金融危机持续蔓延，亚洲新兴市场未能幸免

美国金融危机造成了全球市场的动荡,亚洲新兴市场国家也受到不同程度的影响。尽管亚洲国家在此次危机中的直接损失有限。但其金融市场也遭受了诸如股市暴跌、汇率下滑等波动。油价回落、出口疲软和资金抽逃将使亚洲国家面临压力,未来经济前景面临不确定性。部分国家如韩国、印度和印尼,尤其是韩国出现危机的可能性较大。     

Economic Growth and Inequality: Why It Matters and What's Coming Next

This article makes the case that the recent rise in income inequality in OECD countries reflects profound changes in the economic model that previously resulted in growth, prosperity, and social progress during the second half of the last century. The author begins by citing French economist Thomas Piketty's identification of the key driver of rising income inequality as the recent sharp increase in the share of national income going to capital (defined as interest, dividends and other investment returns) and the accompanying decline in the share going to labor (in the form of wages, salaries, pension, and other work‐related benefits). For most of the last 100 years, a successful balance was struck in a majority of OECD countries between the returns to capital and labor. Within the framework of nationally defined economies, labor could effectively advocate for its share of the productivity gains by capital, and governments had the ability to constrain the free movement of capital, set labor compensation standards, and redistribute income through progressive taxation. The author explores how two developments—globalization and the rise of machine intelligence—are disrupting this social contract and reshaping our economy and society. The combination of these two developments, by accelerating the flow of income to capital and away from labor, is eroding the historical relationship between capital, labor, and governments that has long prevailed in most OECD countries. As this happens, we are seeing rising income inequality and the erosion of the middle class, which had been the driver of economic growth for most of the past century. Indeed, the thesis of Piketty's book, Capital in the Twenty‐First Century, is that such an effect may well be taking us back to the pre‐20th century norm of high income inequality and low economic growth. In his closing arguments, the author suggests that avoiding this scenario will be more complicated than simply raising taxes on capital, as proposed by Piketty. It may well require a fundamental rethinking of the role of employment as the primary mechanism for income distribution in society and how we prepare our workforce for an economy and society in which the concept of work will be radically redefined.     

东亚汇率波动联动性的原因分析——基于区域经济一体化角度的思考

近年来,东亚外向型经济体呈现出汇率波动联动性加强并导致实际的汇率制度变动一致的趋势。本文从东亚日益加深的区域经济一体化的角度出发,分析了各经济体的汇率变化受其重要贸易伙伴经济与政策因素影响,如日美汇率结构波动甚至包括邻国(地区)的汇率与货币政策。这说明经济结构相似、经济周期趋同的东亚各经济体需要一致的汇率制度。本文认为,在目前东亚区域汇率合作机制时机尚未成熟时,各经济体同时采取宽带浮动的一篮子盯住较为现实。而在当前金融动荡的形势下,各国汇率政策协调极为重要。