改进灰色预测模型在我国船舶订单预测中的应用

面时人民币升值、钢材等原材料价格上涨、国际金融危机的冲击和市场出现的急剧变化，全年全国承接新船订单5818万载重吨．同比下降40．9％；手持船舶订单2．046亿载重吨，同比增长28．7％。未来几年，世界造船市场的需求如何，中国船舶制造企业该如何积极应对？这些都是中国造船业必须要面对和思考的问题。文章从手持订单量出发，借助改进后的灰色预测模型，对未来两年我国造船行业做一个简单预测，以期对我国造船业的发展提供借鉴和参考。     

造船业困局

7月底,工信部装备工业司发布了一组数据:2012年上半年,全国造船完工量3220万载重吨,同比增长4.2%;承接新船订单1074万载重吨,同比下降50.3%。截至6月底,我国造船企业的全部手持订单数,已不足1.8年的工活量。按手持订单的交付期推算,部分船厂已经无法保证下半年的开工需求。以主要造船基地之一浙     

熔盛重工逆境增长

2011年国内造船行业持续低迷,而熔盛重工集团控股有限公司(以下简称"熔盛重工")却保持了高增长,但逆境增长也暗藏风险。造船行业面临洗牌,企业在扩大业务、多元化、兼并收购的同时,更要加强生产管理和风险管理。熔盛重工在行业低迷中保持增长2011年造船行业持续低迷,国内造船行业面临"接单难"、"交付难"。1-8月,新承接船舶订单2807万载重吨,同比下降36.9%;全国造船完工量4316     

辽宁的全国之最

[255]凭借具有自行设计和制造世界先进水平大型船舶、满足国内外知名船东市场需求的能力，大连船舶重工集团实现了新船建造订单节节攀升。截至今年6月底，大连船舶重工累计手持新船订单量284万修正总吨，跃升为世界第五位。这是中国造船企业首次手持订单量进入全球五强。     

江苏造船完工量首次突破千万载重吨大关

今年前三季度我省船舶工业在世界航运市场低迷的形势下，始终保持强劲快速增长势头。造船完工量、新承接订单、手持订单三大主要指标稳居全国榜首。特别是造船完工量首次突破千万载重吨大关。     

船舶工业几代人的梦想变为现实

2007年，中国船舶工业新接单9845万载重吨，同比增长132％，超过韩国，晋身全球第一。中国新接船舶订单已经占到国际市场近一半的份额，成为名副其实的造船大国。回首30年中国船舶工业的发展之路，兑现了小平同志1977年12月6日提出的“中国的船舶要出口，要打进国际市场”的战略目标，中国船舶工业取得辉煌的成就。     

媒体

Food Logistics《食品物流》据克拉克森统计,7月全球新船订单为75艘,共3285200载重吨,同比下滑65.6%;环比微弱上升,幅度为6.45%。前7月,全球新船订单合计为2530万载重吨,同比回落54.8%。三大主流船型中,集装箱船成为本月订单的亮点。本月散货船订单合计523000载重吨(7艘),与去年同期26艘2009684载重吨订单量相比,回落约284%;集装箱船订单合计为1410000载重吨,与去年同期6艘合计371500载重吨相比,增幅达279.5%;油船新接订单为6艘280000载重吨,与去年同期的16艘598780载重吨相比,降幅     

2008年船舶工业实现利润增长逾五成

工业和信息化部数据显示，尽管连续遭受钢材等原材料价格急剧波动、人民币升值等多种挑战，我国船舶工业主要经济指标仍继续保持快速增长。去年，全国规模以上船舶工业企业完成工业增加值1183亿元，同比增长61．2％。实现利润总额283．4亿元，同比增长50．5％。据统计，2008年全国造船完工量2881万载重吨，同比增长52．2％，占世界市场份额由2007年的22．9％提高到29．5％，     

浅谈船舶融资租赁

2003～008年,随着世界经济一体化进程的加快和我国经济的快速发展,对外贸易发展迅猛,世界航运经济空前繁荣,主要造船大国的造船业得到超预期的发展。在经历了2008年的金融危机后,世界造船格局发生了改变,2010年7月份Clarkson数据显示,在反映造船竞争力的三大指标——手持订单量、新增订单量、已完成订单量我国位居首位。但是我国在船舶融资方面与国外有很大的差距,已经成为我国船舶业发展的瓶颈。银行在2008年的金融危机中受到比较大的冲击,新的船舶融资模式——船舶融资租赁在我国亟须发展,以满足快速发展的船舶业对资金的需求。     

提升质量，从焊缝抓起——上海造船业推行“质量实名制”

虽然遭遇全球金融危机的冲击，上海外高桥造船有限公司生产经营却继续呈现稳步发展的态势，去年造船总量达到创纪录的605万载重吨，同比增长32％．占中国造船总量的15％，成为中国第一家年造船总量突破600万载重吨大关的船厂．并首次跻身世界造船业前三强。年造船总量连续5年位居中国各船厂之首，还保持着近5年累计创利全国船厂第一，已交付船只无一脱期的骄人记录。这背后．精细的现场管理功不可没。     

Burglar and Fire Alarms

A bstract . The alarm industry has been estimated at 8-11 billion dollars in 1993. There are approximately 17 million alarms installed nationwide. The annual growth of installations has been 8 percent over the last five years. At the same time, the number of false activations per system is 1.1 to 1.4 per year, with 20 to 30 percent of police manpower devoted to false activations. 94-98 percent of all activations are false. Indeed, false activations pose a severe problem for local police departments which respond with stiff fines for false activations and reduced response to alarm activations in general which are not high risk such as jewelry stores, banks or government facilities. This paper identifies the social benefits and costs which result from burglar and fire alarms in a given community. Included benefits are reduced burglary, assault , and rape incidents as well as fewer incidents of fire which are detected early and controlled. Costs include police response to alarms, costs of installation and monthly monitoring fees. The-results demonstrate that, indeed, burglar and fire alarms provide a net social benefit to the locality. The paper suggests that charges for false alarms should be allocated directly to the police which service them. Such users' fee method will improve resource allocation, and prevent a situation where alarms become useless.     

散货船舱口盖制造精度控制设计研究

船舱盖是散货船类型船舶的关键要素之一,属于垂向装卸用的通道设备,船舱盖的适用性和功能性是船舶质量评价的指标之一。优化船舱盖性能设计是保证货物不受风浪侵袭的重要举措。论文以51000DWT散货船舶为例,提出优化船舱盖精度控制设计的具体方案。对比结果表明:优化后的船舱盖不仅能够节约30%的生产成本,而且还提高了船舱盖的强度,达到了设计要求。     

浅谈中小造船厂的现状与对策

随着航运经济的迅速恢复,船舶订单的数量也随之增多,订单增加带来经济发展的同时,也给海事船检机构在建造质量检验方面增加了难度。本文分析了盐城市各船厂建造方面的现状和存在的问题,提出了相关建议。     

Forecast Summary

Led by private sector demand, the economy has grown very rapidly in the last 12 months, Output has risen nearly 6 per cent and unemployment has fallen by over ½ million but the current account deficit has widened dramatically and wage and price inflation is increasing. Monetary policy has been tightened sufficiently, we believe, to produce a gradual reduction in the current deficit over the medium term and to prevent inflation from breaking the 7 per cent level which a higher mortgage rate will ensure early next year. But, as demand is reined back, there is a cost to output which rises 3 per cent next year, 2–2½ per cent thereafter. Unemployment continues to fall, dropping below 2 million at the end of next year and reaching 1.8 million by 1992.     

吉林省金融生态研究

金融生态是仿生学概念,核心在于构建一个影响金融内外部因素的集合,通过系统研究这一集合中各个因素的发展情况,来优化这一生态系统。吉林省作为东北老工业基地之一,2020年上半年GDP总量是5441.92亿元,较去年同期增加了125.86万亿,虽然经济总量略有增长,但在全国省份中排名仍然靠后。因而研究吉林省金融生态的建设现状,发现吉林省金融生态的问题,并提出建议对优化吉林省金融生态,增强其对经济发展的促进效果有重要意义。     

Executive Summary

Our assessment of the outlook for the UK economy over the next two years has not changed dramatically from February's forecast. Growth now appears to be stronger prior to the tax increases coming into force than we then anticipated. We have therefore revised upwards our forecast for GDP growth for this year to 3% and made a small upwards revision - to 2.3% - for 1995. Inflation is still forecast to remain historically low, with the annual increase in the RPI excluding mortgage interest keeping within the 4% target ceiling. However, underlying inflation is stuck in the 3-3.5% range for most of the forecast period and a rise in interest rates over the course of next year will be required to contain inflation. After peaking at 7.5% in early 1996, we then expect interest rates to fall back. Unemployment should continue to decline this year, though not at the rate seen over the last year, levelling off at around 2.5 million in 1995 and then falling again in late 1996 and 1997.     

“失魂”的中航油

找不到一个能满足董事会各方需求的CEO，是走出阴影的中航油所面临的最大尴尬。     

The economic cost of fuel subsidies in Ghana

Apart from fuel subsidies failing to provide the greatest benefits to the poor, they create overconsumption, market inefficiencies and negative environmental and social externalities. This study extended the comprehensive Harberger formula for deadweight loss (DWL) to account for the cross-price substitution effects between the gasoline and diesel markets, estimated the own-price and cross-price elasticities for gasoline and diesel in Africa, and predicted the DWL or economic cost created by gasoline and diesel subsidies in Ghana. Using the simple Harberger formula yields DWL estimates ranging from GHS 2.03 to 8.58 million per year from 2009 to 2014, but accounting for cross-price effects reduces the DWL estimates, from GHS 1.53 to 7.55 million per year, over the same period. However, because fuel demand is highly price inelastic, the DWL created for every GHS 1 million spent on gasoline and diesel subsidies only represents between 0.5% and 2% of subsidy expenditures. These findings suggest that fuel subsidy reforms would be better motivated by other social problems associated with fuel subsidies, such as the ineffective targeting of such subsidies to poorer consumers and the negative externalities of overconsumption, rather than the economic inefficiencies that fuel subsidies generate.     

越南外资汪洋中的一条船

本币大幅贬值、国民财富被洗劫、经济发展倒退,越南不过重复了此前数个新兴经济体的起落路线全球化的恩惠与诅咒,是一个硬币的两面