Supporting Communities in Transition: The Impact of the Armenian Social Investment Fund

The Armenian Social Investment Fund supports communities' effortsto improve local infrastructure during Armenia's economic transitionaway from central planning, financing community-designed and-implemented projects to rehabilitate primary schools, watersystems, and other infrastructure. This article considers thetargeting, household impact, and community effects of the socialfund's activities. It relies on a nationally representativehousehold survey, oversampled in areas where the social fundwas active. Using propensity and pipeline matching techniquesto control for community self-selection into the social fund,it evaluates the household effects of rehabilitating schoolsand water systems. The results show that the social fund reachedpoor households, particularly in rural areas. Education projectsincreased households' spending on education significantly andhad mild effects on school attendance. Potable water projectsincreased household access to water and had mild positive effectson health. Communities that completed a social fund projectwere less likely than the comparison group to complete otherlocal infrastructure projects, suggesting that social capitalwas expended in these early projects. By contrast, communitiesthat joined the social fund later and had not yet completedtheir projects took more initiatives not supported by the socialfund.     

Fertility, Contraceptive Choice, and Public Policy in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe has invested massively in public infrastructure sinceindependence in 1980. The impact of these investments on demographicoutcomes is examined using household survey data matched withtwo community level surveys. A woman's education is a powerfulpredictor of both fertility and contraceptive use. These relationshipsare far from linear and have changed shape in recent years.After controlling for household resources, both the availabilityand quality of health and family planning services have an importantimpact on the adoption of modern contraceptives. In particular,outreach programs such as mobile family planning clinics andcommunity-based distributors (CBDs) have been especially successful.However, not all women are equally served by this infrastructure.For example, CBDs have a bigger impact on younger, better educatedwomen, while mobile family planning clinics appear to have moresuccess with older, less educated women.     

The Impact and Targeting of Social Infrastructure Investments: Lessons from the Nicaraguan Social Fund

The benefit incidence and impact of projects financed by theNicaraguan Emergency Social Investment Fund are investigatedusing a sample of beneficiaries, a national household survey,and two distinct comparison groups. The first group is constructedon the basis of geographic proximity between similar facilitiesand their corresponding communities; the second is drawn fromthe national Living Standards Measurement Study survey sampleusing propensity score matching techniques. The analysis findsthat the social fund investments in latrines, schools, and healthposts are targeted to poor communities and households, whereasthose in sewerage are targeted to the better-off. Investmentsin water systems are poverty-neutral. Education investmentshave a positive, significant impact on school outcomes regardlessof the comparison group used. The results of health investmentsare less clear. Using one comparison group, the analysis findsthat use of health clinics increased as a result of the investments;using both, it finds higher use of clinics for children underage six with diarrhea. With neither comparison group does itfind improvements in health outcomes. Social fund investmentsin water and sanitation improve access to services but haveno effect on health outcomes.     

Preparing for disaster: a comparative analysis of education for critical infrastructure collapse

This article explores policy approaches to educating populations for potential critical infrastructure collapse in five different countries: the UK, the US, Germany, Japan and New Zealand. ‘Critical infrastructure’ is not always easy to define, and indeed is defined slightly differently across countries – it includes entities vital to life, such as utilities (water, energy), transportation systems and communications, and may also include social and cultural infrastructure. The article is a mapping exercise of different approaches to critical infrastructure protection and preparedness education by the five countries. The exercise facilitates a comparison of the countries and enables us to identify distinctive characteristics of each country’s approach. We argue that contrary to what most scholars of security have argued, these national approaches diverge greatly, suggesting that they are shaped more by internal politics and culture than by global approaches.     

Historical and Projected Mortality for Mexico,Canada, and the United States

Abstract

This paper presents historical death rates for Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. by sex and broad age group. The time period for this historical analysis begins with 1900 (1930 for Mexico). These data provide a quite consistent basis from which experts can develop and contrast their expectations for future mortality trends. Official mortality projections developed by government agencies of each of the three countries provide a starting point for this discussion.

During this century, death rates declined fairly rapidly in all three countries. However, the rate of mortality improvement has varied considerably across time periods: distinct periods of rapid and slow improvement are evident in the data, but are not consistent across the countries and have not yet been explained.

The historical rates of improvement in mortality have also varied greatly by age and sex: younger age groups have shown the most rapid proportional improvement in mortality in all three countries, and mortality improvement during this century has generally been greater for females than for males. However, the data provide evidence that this difference in the rates of mortality improvement between men and women has recently slowed, and even reversed, in the U.S. and Canada. Historical experience and projections are provided in graphs, in which death rates are plotted on a logarithmic scale. This approach allows easy detection of the extent to which rates of improvement have been changing (death rates with constant rates of improvement would be plotted as straight lines).

The official projections supplied for comparison provide strikingly similar outlooks for future potential mortality improvement. In each case, the relatively average rapid rate of mortality improvement experienced so far this century is assumed to slow in the future. In addition, rates of improvement are projected to be much more similar for all three countries across age groups and between the sexes.     

The Evolution and Impact of Infrastructure in Middle-Income Countries: Anything Special?

We examine the evolution of infrastructure, and the impact of infrastructure investment, in middle-income countries (MICs). We document how different types of infrastructure stocks, as well as infrastructure investment, vary with the level of development and growth performance. We then use the two-stage approach of Corsetti, Meier, and Müller (2012) to identify exogenous public investment shocks and investigate the macroeconomic impact of these shocks. We find that the provision of infrastructure varies across development stages; there is a focus on basic infrastructure, such as transport, water, and sanitation, during early stages, and an emphasis on “advanced” infrastructure, such as power and especially information and communication technology, in later stages. Better-performing MICs tend to invest more on infrastructure. They also have more information and communication technology infrastructure. Finally, we find a more significant and sustained impact of exogenous public investment shocks on output in MICs than in low-income countries.     

中国经济增长的驱动力研究——基于教育发展结构的视角

建立计量经济模型定量考察了1991~2014年中国高等教育和基础教育、教育发展质量提升和数量扩张对经济增长的贡献,结果表明：中国高等教育、基础教育发展的数量和质量与经济增长之间都存在长期均衡的协整关系;中国高等教育发展的质量和数量、基础教育的数量都与经济增长之间存在显著的双向因果关系,但基础教育质量对经济增长的影响不够显著;在几种教育发展变量中,高等教育发展的数量扩张对经济增长的贡献相对最大,达到32%,其次是基础教育和高等教育发展的质量,而基础教育发展的数量规模以及科技创新水平对经济增长的贡献相对较弱,仅为1%左右。     

What Works in Fighting Diarrheal Diseases in Developing Countries? A Critical Review

The Millennium Development Goals call for reducing by half theproportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinkingwater. This goal was adopted in large part because clean waterwas seen as critical to fighting diarrheal disease, which kills2 million children annually. There is compelling evidence thatprovision of piped water and sanitation can substantially reducechild mortality. However, in dispersed rural settlements, providingcomplete piped water and sanitation infrastructure to householdsis expensive. Many poor countries have therefore focused insteadon providing community-level water infrastructure, such as wells.Various traditional child health interventions have been shownto be effective in fighting diarrhea. Among environmental interventions,handwashing and point-of-use water treatment both reduce diarrhea,although more needs to be learned about ways to encourage householdsto take up these behavior changes. In contrast, there is littleevidence that providing community-level rural water infrastructuresubstantially reduces diarrheal disease or that this infrastructurecan be effectively maintained. Investments in communal waterinfrastructure short of piped water may serve other needs, andmay reduce diarrhea in particular circumstances, but the casefor prioritizing communal infrastructure provision needs tobe made rather than assumed. JEL codes: Q56, Q52, O22     

Women in development: Kenya's experience

In Kenya, the government has promoted economic policies, development programs, and a legal system geared to increase incentives and productive capacity for women. Economic strength, family health and population growth can be greatly effected by programs in women's education, health care, family planning and agriculture extension. There are 10 million women in Kenya and 60% are below 20 years of age. Women's groups have been successful in improving health and family planning practice. Women manage most small farms: 75% of the labor on the farms is provided by women. Kenya has introduced an extension system nationally focusing on women farmers as well as men. Women's demand for credit is strong and the government is considering helping expand credit through women's groups. Water is obtained by women and 9 of 10 spend more than an hour getting water each day for the family. By providing better access to water, more time can be spent on farming, family and other more important pursuits. There are many projects to improve community water supplies sponsored by both governmental and non- governmental organizations. About 1/3 girls and 2/5 boys complete primary school. Women that have more than 5 years of education have less than 3 children. There have been difficulties getting girls into later primary and secondary education, because fewer spots are allocated for girls in government-aided schools. The government it trying to improve this, but many girls drop out because of pregnancy. A third of the deaths of women between 15-35 is caused by maternal mortality. This high rate can be reduced with better prenatal care, better family planning, and more effective care at child birth. There are now about 100,000 new family planning acceptors each year. The World Bank and many international organizations have given support to the women's needs in the development process.     

Evaluation of risk communication for rural water supply management: a case study of a coastal area of Bangladesh

Consumption of safe drinking water is an important public health issue. In this study, we considered the risk communication topic of human health concerns related to unsafe water consumption in rural coastal areas of Bangladesh, where potable water is scarce. Our objective was to investigate the level of knowledge that rural residents had concerning safe water consumption and to evaluate the effects of risk communication on knowledge and behavior changes. We considered four rural villages of southwest coastal areas of Bangladesh as sample. This study was based on the results of a questionnaire survey administered before and after risk communication. The pre- and post-survey were conducted during August 2009 and March 2010, respectively. Data were collected from 120 women aged 18–60 years. Two format presentations, with and without water quality information, were used to convey the risk messages. In the present study, indicator bacterial (Escherichia coli) contamination levels in drinking water sources were considered as water quality information since absence of E. coli is the safety margin for the detection of disease-causing organisms. Analysis of the survey data revealed that risk communication can be vital to changes in water consumption knowledge and behavior. Overall general knowledge scores were almost same in the pre-survey for without- (mean score 3.16) and with-information (mean score 3.10) villages. However, after risk communication, there were detectable increases in the mean scores (mean scores, 3.54 and 3.64, respectively, on a 4 point scale) for both groups. Furthermore, risk communication with water quality information appears to be a more effective method of risk communication. Dissemination of risk messages was also higher in with-information villages. Seventy four percent of the participants from with-information villages reported that they had discussed the risk messages with family members and neighbors, compared to 59% of those from without-information villages. The results of this study revealed that age, education, and distance of water sources influence changes in consumption and maintenance behavior. These findings suggest that, in addition to installation of water supply facilities, there is a need to address the low levels of knowledge about safe water consumption in rural coastal communities of Bangladesh. Location specific water quality information may be more useful to convey health risk messages concerning unsafe drinking water consumption.     

基础设施投资、教育支出与经济增长——基础设施投资“挤出效应”的实证分析

把基础设施投资和教育支出放入到理论模型中进行分析,得出基础设施投资和教育支出影响经济增长的理论假定,来判断我国基础设施投资是否存在对人力资本积累的"挤出效应",以及这个"挤出效应"是否阻碍经济持续有效增长;利用1980～2010年的数据通过误差修正模型进行验证,实证结果显示:基础设施投资已经对人力资本积累产生了"挤出效应";人力资本投资显示出比基础设施投资更强的对经济增长的推动力;基础设施投资对经济的影响存在明显的地区差异性。     

内蒙古财经学院开展质量工程建设的探索与实践

论文对内蒙古财经学院开展质量工程建设提出了树立质量立校的理念,加强教学基本建设,大力实施教学质量与教学改革工程,多维度构筑人才培养质量平台,进一步加强教育教学改革,探索多样化的人才培养模式等建议,并且内蒙古财经学院建立了学术型本科人才培养模式,应用型人才培养模式,双学士人才培养模式,就业导向型人才培养模式,国际化人才培养模式,少数民族财经人才培养模式,希望对高校的质量工程建设有所帮助.     

Gender and Age Differences in Socio‐economic Inequalities in Total and Avoidable Mortality in Portugal: A Trend Analysis*

The purpose of this paper is to analyse how socio‐economic inequalities in mortality (total and avoidable) evolved in Portugal from the 1990s onwards by looking at differences by gender, age group, poverty and cause of death. Results show that mortality in younger age groups is decreasing faster in the most deprived municipalities. Yet, avoidable deaths do not follow this pattern, particularly with respect to treatable mortality amenable to the health care services. Although total and avoidable mortality are decreasing across all age groups and both genders, decreases in treatable deaths during and after the 2011–14 economic crisis slowed down among the young, with a sharpening of socio‐economic inequalities in avoidable mortality among adults and the elderly. This provides evidence that, in some respects, focusing programmes on those living in poor circumstances has been successful over time. However, the impact of the Great Recession on health care services might have contributed to a significant increase in some treatable causes of death associated with these services.     

Questionnaire based mortality assessment: an exploratory analysis of NHANES III

The need for speed and efficiency in life insurance underwriting has never been greater. With increasing acquisition costs, the need for timeliness to complete the sales process, and the need for accurate mortality prediction a great deal of resources have been devoted to the development of non-traditional underwriting processes and criteria in hopes of streamlining the process. In this paper, we describe an exploratory analysis of mortality linked data from the US NHANES III study. Our goal for this analysis was to identify mortality predictors that would be good candidates for further investigation in insurance applicants, especially in the context of simplified issue products which focus on younger age applicants. We identified aerobic exercise, dental health, alcohol beverage type and quantity, and dietary components and patterns as factors that may hold promise as mortality predictors in persons age 17-65. Though the limitations of this analysis preclude the immediate use of these factors as underwriting criteria, it does appear that several of these hold promise, and should be tested in an insurance application context. Focus groups, market testing, or even insertion as non-actionable questions in a subset of applications may be ways to collect further data on them.     

Book Review

This research examines two modes of assessment of environmental health risks and the transformation of these risks into public health issues while relying on the specific case of well‐water toxicity and mega dose of electromagnetic radiation found in one prosperous town in the center of Israel – Ramat ha‐Sharon. Based on official and scientific documentation and interviews conducted at three time periods with randomly selected town residents from contaminated neighborhoods (N = 169), this study shows the discrepancy between the ‘objective’ experts’ standards for assessing environmental health risks and the public’s subjective perception and evaluation of the impact of these risks on their health and well‐being. Even though, by experts’ standards, the well‐water toxicity remained constant over the three interview sessions, Ramat ha‐Sharon town residents’ subjective levels of concern and perception of risk fluctuated as a function of news media and municipality announcements and residents’ perceived ability to minimize the risk. This study also shows the complex and multidisciplinary nature of environmental health risk assessments and the need to relocate them into the broader socioeconomic and political context in which they are embedded.     

Inequality in Mortality: Updated Estimates for the United States,Canada and France*

This study provides comparisons of inequalities in mortality between the United States, Canada and France using the most recent available data. The period between 2010 and 2018 saw increases in mortality and in inequality in mortality for most age and gender groups in the United States. The main exceptions were children under 5 and adults over 65. In contrast, Canada saw a further flattening of mortality gradients in most groups, as well as further declines in overall mortality. The sole exception was Canadian women over 80 years old, who saw small increases in mortality rates. France saw continuing improvements in mortality rates in all groups. Both Canada and France have distributions of mortality that are much more equal than those in the United States, demonstrating the importance of public policy in the achievement of equality in health.     

Infrastructure, Externalities, and Economic Development: A Study of the Indian Manufacturing Industry

If infrastructure tends to generate spillover externalities,as has been the assumption in much of the development literature,one may reasonably look for evidence of such indirect effectsin the accounts of manufacturing industries. Empirical supportfor this assumption has so far been ambiguous. This analysisof Indian data, however, reveals substantial externality effectsfrom the states’ infrastructure to manufacturing productivity.The analysis separates the direct effects of roads and electricity,as mediated by the infrastructure services purchased by manufacturingindustries along with other intermediate inputs, from the indirecteffects, as measured by the impact of infrastructure capacityon the Solow productivity residual. In the 20 years from 1972to 1992, growth of road and electricity-generating capacityseems to have accounted for nearly half the growth of the productivityresidual of India’s registered manufacturing.     

Systematic Mortality Improvement Trends and Mortality Heterogeneity: Insights from Individual-Level HRS Data

Providers of life annuities and pensions need to consider both systematic mortality improvement trends and mortality heterogeneity. Although how mortality improvement varies with age and gender at the population level is well studied, how trends vary with risk factors remains relatively unexplored. This article assesses how systematic mortality improvement trends vary with individual risk characteristics using individual-level longitudinal data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study between 1994 and 2009. Initially a Lee-Carter model is used to assess mortality improvement trends by grouping individuals with similar risk characteristics of gender, education, and race. We then fit a longitudinal mortality model to individual-level data allowing for heterogeneity and time trends in individual-level risk factors. Our results show how survey data can provide valuable insights into both mortality heterogeneity and improvement trends more effectively than commonly used aggregate models. We show how mortality improvement differs across individuals with different risk factors. Significantly, at an individual level, mortality improvement trends have been driven by changes in health history such as high blood pressure, cancer, and heart problems rather than risk factors such as education, marital status, body mass index, and smoker status.     

“多媒体技术应用”实验教学多元考核系统研究

“多媒体技术应用”是一门理论与应用结合很强的学科,不但要求学生有较好的理论基础,更要强调和培养学生的实践操作能力.根据《国家中长期教育改革和发展规划纲要(2010 -2020)》与“财经类院校计算机基础教育教学改革研究”中提高教学质量的要求,针对常规课程设计考核中存在的一些实际问题,提出了“多元考核”的改革方案.“多元考核”可以实现检验学生对各章节知识要点的学习以及学生实际动手操作能力的培养情况,达到真正意义上的实验教学公平公正的全面的考核,对于提高教学质量具有较高的参考价值.