人力资本、市场分割与农民工的工资决定

对农民工工资的最小二乘估计表明,在控制了其他变量以后,教育每增加1年,农民工的工资将提高6.1%,参加培训者比不参加培训者的工资要高出15.7%;行业垄断不仅造就了少数人的富裕也造成了多数人的贫困;市场化使人力资本和市场分割的工资效应均明显增强,这意味着消除劳动力市场分割和加强教育培训将是同等重要的政策手段。此外,在处理教育的内生性问题时发现,父母的受教育年限、兄弟姐妹数、调查地域的类型都不是理想的工具变量。     

Determinants of Schooling in Egypt: The Role of Gender and Rural/Urban Residence

In this paper, we examine if there are gender differences in schooling attainment and the extent to which these differences are exacerbated for rural children in Egypt. Using a nationally representative cross-sectional survey, our estimation results find strong support for the hypothesis that being male and living in urban areas significantly improves child schooling. We show that relative to a female child who is “never enrolled” in school, a male child is over twice as likely to be currently attending school, and over two-and-a-half times more likely to have some schooling. These positive effects are particularly strong for rural male children. There are also regional variations, with a child (male or female) living in Upper Rural Egypt having a significantly lower likelihood of being currently enrolled. Finally, our estimation results point to large positive effects of father's education on the probability of current enrolment for all children. Mother's education, however, improves only the likelihood of current enrolment for female children, with no significant effect on male children.     

PORTUGAL ON THE BRINK OF EUROPE: THE CAP AND PORTUGUESE AGRICULTURE

Portuguese policy-makers assumed an active interest in agricultural sector development after the 1974 Revolution. However, the policy instruments used-output price supports, input subsidies, land market regulations, and agricultural credit programmes-have done little to facilitate technical or structural change in much of the sector. This pattern of development may have adverse medium-term impacts on agriculture, because for most commodities, accession to the CAP will substantially reduce farm profitability. If Portugal is to avoid sharp declines in income for a sector that is already relatively low in income terms, reform of factor market policies and investment in research and development are essential.     

Evaluating the long‐term impacts of promoting “green” agriculture in the Amazon

Frontier development in the Brazilian Amazon has created vast areas of largely deforested landscapes. Conservation efforts in these post‐frontier zones seek to protect the remaining forest fragments and promote sustainable agricultural practices that absorb labor, meet market demand, and generate ecosystem services. Assessments of these efforts often find that rates of sustained uptake are disappointingly low and that impacts are difficult to discern, but this could be due to the short‐time frames of both the efforts themselves and their evaluation. We investigate the impacts of participation in an internationally sponsored farmer association that for 15 years promoted sustainable agricultural practices in the heavily deforested state of Rondônia, Brazil. Using data from a georeferenced four‐period panel survey of farmers in combination with remote sensing data on land use spanning the life of the association, we apply matching methods to estimate the impacts of participation. We find that membership resulted in more diversified production systems, including more land allocated to agroforestry. Members also deforested less of their farms, but this difference is not statistically significant after we control for selection bias in membership.     

Does having more children increase the likelihood of parental smoking? Evidence from Vietnam

Evidence has shown that parental smoking can cause health problems for children. It might be expected that parents who are aware of the harmful effects of second-hand smoke will reduce their smoking, especially as they have more children. However, based on instrumental variable regressions using data from the 2006 and 2008 Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys, we find a strongly positive and significant effect of the number of children on the probability of tobacco smoking in households in Vietnam. An additional child increases the probability of tobacco consumption in the household by approximately 15%. These findings imply low levels of awareness of the harmful effects of second-hand smoke on children’s health in Vietnam, and indicate the need for policy action to disseminate knowledge on the harmful effects of smoking.     

Moving out or living on a mound? Jointly planning a Dutch flood adaptation project

All over the world spatial flood risk management policies are on the rise. This paper analyses the planning process for the Overdiepse polder, a so-called “Room for the River” project in the Netherlands. After high water in the 1990s, the Dutch government changed its flood risk management policy. While before 2000 it leaned heavily on dikes to separate water from land, after that year spatial measures to “let the water flow” were introduced. This required the integration of two formerly separated policy domains: flood risk management and land use planning. In the densely populated and economically highly developed Netherlands, returning space to the river unavoidably impacts on the lives and livelihoods of those who live and work along the rivers. Therefore, such spatial measures to decrease flood risk have to be negotiated with various stakeholders. The planning process towards making the Overdiepse polder suitable for temporary water storage deserves more in-depth analysis. We describe and analyze the development of relationships between key actors in the planning process, with a focus on planning practices rather than on assumptions about the existence of certain types and qualities of relationships. We conclude, among others, that citizen involvement can, under specific socio-political and institutional conditions, build trust among stakeholders and increase local legitimacy for interventions by government agencies. However, it should not be idealized as “self-governance” or assumed to be part of a unidirectional change in water interventions towards new relationships between actors.     

Impacts of Low-Cost Land Certification on Investment and Productivity

New land reforms are again high on the policy agenda and low-cost, propoor reforms are being tested in poor countries. This article assesses the investment and productivity impacts of the recent low-cost land certification implemented in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, using a unique household and farm-plot-level panel data set, with data from before and up to eight years after the reform. Alternative econometric methods were used to test and control for endogeneity of certification and for unobserved household heterogeneity. Significant positive impacts were found, including effects on the maintenance of soil conservation structures, investment in trees, and land productivity.     

Effects of local land-use planning on development and disturbance in riparian areas

Land-use change can significantly affect the provision of ecosystem services. On a local scale, zoning laws and other land-use regulations are commonly used to influence land-use change, but their effectiveness is often unclear. We evaluate the effectiveness of local land-use planning in concentrating development and minimizing impacts in riparian areas. We use spatially-explicit land cover data from the USGS Land Cover Trends project to measure development and disturbance rates before and after implementation of Oregon’s land-use planning system. We apply a difference-in-difference estimator to address the problem of non-random assignment of regulations on the landscape. We find that land-use laws in Oregon have concentrated development inside of UGBs and lowered development rates in riparian areas. However, disturbance in riparian areas has increased inside of UGBs. Overall, our findings suggest that local land-use planning can be an effective tool for promoting the provision of non-market ecosystem services.     

武汉市洪山区城乡结合部农地城市流转决策研究

研究目的：研究地块空间特征和土地流转收益的不确定性对城乡结合部农地城市流转决策的影响。研究方法：经济计量分析方法。研究结果：房地产市场的不确定性、样点周围建设用地比例、样点是否在建设用途分区内对流转决策有显著影响,坡度、地价等级、固定资产投资等变量对流转决策的影响不显著。研究结论：政府制定农地城市流转决策时,应谨慎选择时机,充分考虑土地利用决策的空间相关性,并做好农地城市流转决策收益与风险承担机制的创新。     

Land, landlords and sustainable livelihoods: The impact of agrarian reform on a coconut hacienda in the Philippines

Agrarian reform has been a key theme on the development agenda of many countries in the Global South for decades. Whilst such interventions are often pursued for political goals and in the interests of empowerment, there is often a mismatch between these goals and the actual outcomes achieved. Within this context, this study investigates the impacts of agrarian reform in Del Rosario, a former coconut hacienda in the Philippines. This is done in an attempt to explore whether agrarian reform has facilitated the creation of sustainable livelihoods among its beneficiaries, in particular, and in their agrarian reform community, in general. The impacts of reform are examined in relation to four themes - economic, social, demographic and environmental. Overall, the study concludes that agrarian reform has not brought about sustainable livelihoods in the former coconut hacienda. People's livelihoods, especially those derived from copra farming, remain at a subsistence level. At most, at an economic level agrarian reform has brought about improved access to land among its beneficiaries. Nevertheless, it has empowered the farmers by giving them greater freedom and has increased their sense of well-being, as well as enabling them to improve their families’ life prospects and strengthen social capital.     

The identification and assessment of ecological risks for land consolidation based on the anticipation of ecosystem stabilization: A case study in Hubei Province,China

The purpose of this study is to identify and classify the ecological risks in land consolidation, and to develop a framework of the theory and method to assess the change of ecological risk degree before and after land consolidation. Environmental impacts and ecological risks of land consolidation have recently drawn much attention, and there are two opposing viewpoints to assess these impacts and risks in the academia of China. Both viewpoints result from the bias of assessment anticipation. Land consolidation includes four main engineering aspects in China, and ecological succession from start of land consolidation to ecosystem stabilization should pass three phases. Different ecological impacts and risks of land consolidation rise from different phases of ecological successions. According to the climax theory of ecology, we developed a framework of the ecological risk assessment based on the anticipation of ecosystem stabilization (ERABAES) for land consolidation. We applied analytical hierarchical processing (AHP) method to the data resources from the land consolidation project in Southern China to allocate weightings to the indices of ecological risk (ER), and to set up an integrated index system for the ecological risk identification. This integrated index system encompasses the ecological risks with three factors (water, soil and biology) and 14 indices. The results of the project show: (1) The ER is reduced from 58.02 to 28.8 after land consolidation and the degree of ecological risk is down from Degree III to Degree IV. (2) According to the element analysis, the water ER is reduced from 21.53 to 6.16, its contribution to reduce the ecological risk is 53%; the reduced ERs of soil and biology are respectively 12.79 and 1.06, their contribution of ecological risk reduce is lower than water.     

林地确权后林农林业收支变化及配套政策需求分析——基于云南省林改前,2009年,2010年调研数据

林地确权是集体林权制度改革的首要任务,它是集体林改深入推进的前提。本研究通过实地调查,利用云南省林改前、2009年、2010年的调研数据,从林农的角度探讨林地确权对林农林业收入、林业生产投资、配套政策需求等方面产生的影响,反映云南省林改的成效。并从发展林下经济、引导林业投资、完善配套政策三方面提出建议,以期促进林改工作稳步推进,将林改价值深化和延伸。     

土地整理项目区景观格局粒度效应初探

研究目的:分析土地整理项目区景观格局粒度效应,探讨粒度变化对土地整理前后景观格局变化的影响。研究方法:景观格局分析法。研究结果:(1)对小尺度范围上的平原型土地整理区,除平均斑块形状指数、平均斑块分维数对粒度变化的响应呈现弱敏感性外,其他指数均具有明显的粒度效应;(2)相关性强的景观指数变化趋势相近;(3)整理前后景观指数的粒度效应可分为变化规律一致且无明显变化拐点、变化规律不一致且整理前后具有不同变化拐点、无规律变化三种类型。研究结论:为准确分析土地整理前后景观格局变化情况,首先应选择合适粒度,对于小尺度范围上的平原型整理项目区,选择10—25m粒度较为适宜;在景观分析指数选择上,应选择敏感性强、相关性低的景观指数。     

Ex post impacts of improved maize varieties on poverty in rural Ethiopia

Public agricultural research has been conducted in Africa for decades. While many studies have examined its aggregate impacts, few have investigated how it affects the poor. This paper helps fill this gap by applying a new procedure to explore the ex post impacts of improved maize varieties on poverty in rural Ethiopia. Plot‐level yield and cost changes due to adoption are first estimated using instrumental variable and marginal treatment effect techniques where possible heterogeneity is carefully accounted for. A backward derivation procedure is then developed to link treatment effect estimates with an economic surplus model to identify the counterfactual household income that would have existed without improved maize varieties. Poverty impacts are finally estimated by exploiting the differences between observed and counterfactual income distributions. Improved maize varieties have led to a 0.8–1.3 percentage drop of poverty headcount ratio and relative reductions of poverty depth and severity. However, poor producers benefit the least from adoption due to the smallness of their land holdings.     

The Effects of Educational Externalities on Maize Production in Rural Malawi

The paper looks at the existence, nature and form of intra- and inter-household externalities of education on productivity, efficiency and uncertainty of maize production in rural Malawi. Data from the Third Integrated Household Survey are used. I find statistically and economically significant positive intra- and inter-household externalities from education on all three elements, and that intra-household externality effects are larger than inter-household externality ones. Community-level schooling is found to substitute for household-level schooling in the sense that farmers who reside in households where members are not educated nevertheless have relatively higher production and lower production uncertainty, on account of living in communities where some inhabitants are educated. The paper also finds that the intra- and inter-household externality effects are more pronounced for the least efficient farmers, that they are monotonic and that they are largest when average household schooling is relatively low.     

Estimates of Mincerian Returns to Schooling in Nigeria

In the face of declining rates of primary and secondary school enrolment and increasing post-secondary school enrolment rates, the Nigerian government introduced the free universal basic education programme in 1999. To understand better the economic forces underlying the recent trends in school enrolment rates and appraise the new education policy from the perspective of private efficiency returns, I estimate the private returns to schooling associated with levels of educational attainment for wage and self-employed workers using data from the General Household Survey. The estimates for both men and women are small at primary and secondary levels, 2–3% and 4%, respectively, but are substantial at post-secondary education level, 10–15%. Inter-generational returns to schooling decline for primary education but rise for post-secondary education. These schooling return estimates may account for the recent trends in school enrolments. Thus, increasing public investment to encourage increased attendance in basic education is not justifiable on grounds of private efficiency, unless investments to increase school quality have higher private returns. With high private returns to post-secondary schooling, students at this level should pay tuition to recoup more of the public costs of schooling, which may be redistributed to poor families through scholarships.     

The Land Use Impacts of the EU Biodiesel Policy: Assessing the Direct,Indirect and Induced Effects

This paper deals with the controversial measure of indirect land use changes of the European biodiesel policy. Two studies sponsored by the European Commission find significant, but contrasted, land use impacts for the different vegetable oils used for biodiesel production. The first study uses an aggregate computable general equilibrium model capturing direct, indirect and induced effects. The second more recent study uses a biotechnical partial equilibrium model providing a detailed representation of the indirect effects occurring through the livestock sectors. We develop an original economic emulator to understand the diverging key results of these studies and test their sensitivity. We find that the direct and indirect effects on vegetable oil and land markets explain most of the differences. We also find that indirect effects on the feed markets and the induced effects have less influence on the biodiesel results. We finally argue that the development of emulators as done here can help to understand complex policy assessments.     

Strategies to increase agricultural productivity and reduce land degradation: evidence from Uganda

This paper estimates a structural econometric model of household decisions regarding income strategies, participation in programs and organisations, crop choices, land management, and labour use, and their implications for agricultural production and soil erosion; based upon a survey of over 450 households and their farm plots in Uganda. Many factors have context-specific impacts and involve trade-offs between increasing production and reducing land degradation. Government agricultural extension and training programs contribute to higher value of crop production in the lowlands, but to soil erosion in the highlands. By contrast, non-governmental organization (NGO) programs focusing on agriculture and environment help to reduce erosion, but have less favourable impacts on production in the lowlands. Education increases household incomes, but also reduces crop production in the lowlands. Poverty has mixed impacts on agricultural production, depending on the nature of poverty: smaller farms obtain higher crop production per hectare, while households with fewer livestock have lower crop production. Population pressure contributes to agricultural intensification, but also to erosion in the densely populated highlands. Several household income strategies contribute to increased value of crop production, without significant impacts on soil erosion. We find little evidence of impact of access to markets, roads and credit, land tenure or title on agricultural intensification and crop production and land degradation. In general, the results imply that the strategies to increase agricultural production and reduce land degradation must be location-specific, and that there are few 'win-win' opportunities to simultaneously increase production and reduce land degradation.     

Sectoral and poverty impacts of agricultural policy adjustments in Colombia

We aim to assess the sectoral and poverty impacts of changes in agricultural policy in Colombia. For this, we use an agriculture specialized static computable general equilibrium model, together with a microsimulation model that allows employment to shift between sectors. Results indicate that the sectoral impact from policy changes tends to be small and that it considerably varies across crops. The macro model yields some gains in wages and capital rents, a relatively larger increase in land rents, and limited labor reallocation, together leading to small poverty impacts as calculated through the microsimulation model. The incidence of rural poverty decreases by less than 1% and the same happens to the poverty gap. In addition, poverty reductions are concentrated among households near the middle of the income distribution.     

Deprived land-use intensification in shifting cultivation: the population pressure hypothesis revisited

This article provides a theoretical framework, based on optimal control theory, to analyze farm households' land‐use intensification decisions in forest‐based shifting cultivation (slash‐and‐burn) agroecosystems. The main results from the analysis generally coincide with the “Population Pressure Hypothesis” (PPH) as an important driver of soil degradation due to the so‐called “fallow crisis” or “deprived land‐use intensification” in shifting cultivation. However, the model also shows, from a supply perspective, that such a vicious circle of lower yields and greater forest land clearing may be avoided when the production elasticity of on‐farm labor outweighs the elasticity of substitution between farm labor and soil fertility. Furthermore, using data from shifting cultivating households from Yucatán, Mexico, we calibrate the effect of changes in population density. The numerical analysis suggests that by contrast to better‐off households, when population density increases, poorer shifting cultivating households' optimal labor allocation strategy is to further extensify land use by clearing more forest in the village common property land, or ejido land.