Spending Growth With Vertical Fiscal Imbalance: Decentralized Government Spending In Norway, 1880–1990

Vertical fiscal imbalance, decentralized responsibility of spending with centralized financing, creates a common pool problem with spending pressure towards central funds. A model of decentralized government spending under vertical fiscal imbalance is developed, and the importance of national political characteristics for internalization of costs and spending level is investigated in an econometric analysis of Norway during 1880–1990. We argue that in a parliamentary democracy, the internalization of costs is influenced by the party fragmentation of parliament. This is confirmed by the econometric analysis using a Herfindahl index as a measure of fragmentation and political strength.     

Macroeconomic stability and economic justice

This article presents a proposal to broaden the right to acquire capital with the earnings of capital as a means of promoting sustainable economic recovery and growth. It would open the markets for real and financial capital acquisition more fully and competitively to poor and working people (1) to distribute more broadly the earnings of capital and (2) to profitably employ more capital and labor. Both the recession and the strategies advanced to promote economic recovery may be viewed as responses to the prospect of inadequate present and future earning capacity of both consumers and producers (1) to purchase what can physically be produced and (2) to repay existent and anticipated debt obligations. To increase the prospects of sufficient, sustainable earning capacity, the proposal advanced in this article would extend to all people the same protections and benefits presently provided by government that facilitate market transactions whereby capital is acquired with the earnings of capital primarily for well-capitalized people. Although in theory, all people in a market economy are able to acquire capital with the earnings of capital, reliable empirical data reveal that as a practical matter, the major determinant of the ability of individuals to acquire capital with the earnings of capital is the existing distribution of capital ownership. The theory of “binary” economic growth underlying this proposal holds that the market return on capital is positively related to the distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital. The prospect of a broader distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital carries with it the prospect of more broadly distributed earning capacity in future years, which in turn will provide the market incentives to profitably employ more capital and labor in earlier years. The idea that the broader distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital will promote growth is not found in any of the widely accepted theories and models of economic growth such as those proposed by Schumpeter, Solow, Roemer, and Lucas. By opening to all people the institutions of corporate finance, banking, insurance, government loans and guaranties, and monetary policy (the very institutions presently relied upon by the Federal Government to stimulate the economy) the practical ability to acquire capital with the earnings of capital can be more broadly extended to all people with the result that greatly enhanced prospects for greater and more broadly distributed earning capacity and growth can be reasonably expected and realized by all.     

Government Spending and Taxation in Democracies and Autocracies

The paper develops a theoretical rationale for a non-linear relationship between the level of democracy and government spending. A model is presented showing why and how political participation influences the spending behavior of opportunistic governments that can choose an optimal combination of rents and public goods to attract political support. If the level of democracy remains low, governments rationally prefer rents as an instrument to assure political support. With increasing democratic participation, however, rents become an increasingly expensive (per unit of political support) instrument while the provision of public goods becomes more and more efficient in ensuring the incumbent government's survival in power. As a consequence, an increase in democracy, which drives a country from a pure autocracy to a semi-participatory system, tends to reduce government spending, while an increase in political participation from a semi-participatory country to a full democracy tends to raise the size of the public sector.     

Government Spending and Welfare with Returns to Specialization

We explore a novel channel through which government spending can stimulate consumption and welfare through its effects on aggregate productivity, without directly affecting either utility or production possibilities. In the presence of monopolistic competition and increasing returns to specialization, it is shown that government spending can partly alleviate the inefficiencies of monopolistic competition. This is because government spending generates an endogenous increase in total factor productivity by increasing the variety of intermediate goods. If the degree of increasing returns to variety is large enough, a rise in such wasteful government spending may increase consumption levels enough to increase welfare.
JEL classification : E 60     

地方政府债务置换与宏观经济风险缓释研究

地方政府债务问题已经成为威胁中国金融稳定和经济增长的重要因素。通过构造一个包含影子银行、土地财政等因素的五部门一般均衡模型,本文探讨了地方政府存量债务置换对宏观经济风险的缓释效果。研究发现:经济增速放缓、地方政府资金使用成本过高、土地出让收入不确定性增加是导致我国地方政府债务不可持续的主要因素。通过债务置换延长债务期限结构虽然可以缓解债务累积,且对宏观经济风险具有一定缓释作用,但会降低财政政策的有效性,使得短期内波动增加,中长期内产出下降。实施债务置换期间,数量型货币政策有助于增加财政政策的有效性,但会带来经济通胀风险。     

Government Spending and Real Interest Rate in an Open Economy

This paper investigates the dynamic effect of government spending in an optimizing monetary model of an open economy with capital immobility and fixed exchange rates. It is found that a rise in government spending will always lead to a reduction in real interest rates on impact. Moreover, real interest rates can be lower during temporary periods of high government spending. This result is compatible with the observation of low real interest rates during wars.     

内生增长、政府生产性支出与中国居民消费

中国财政支出的较大一部分用于生产建设,中国居民消费与政府生产性支出表现出稳健的正相关关系,这一事实与从标准的新古典和新凯恩斯模型得出的挤出效应截然不同。本文构建了包含存量和流量两部分政府生产性支出的内生增长模型,研究表明,政府支出增加在提高税负、挤出居民消费的同时,也通过其生产性增加收入、挤入居民消费;政府支出增加究竟挤入还是挤出居民消费取决于两种效应的比较以及政府的生产性支出比重和税负水平。政府生产性支出的最优结构等于其相对生产性之比,政府支出的最优规模等于政府支出的生产性。     

Consumption and Government Spending Substitutability Revisited: Evidence from Taiwan

Bailey (1971) first documented the idea that there may be a degree of substitutability of the relationship between government spending and private consumption. In this paper, this issue is embedded in a Markov–switching framework where the relationship is subject to shifting between two different regimes. To control small–sample bias, the bootstrap maximum likelihood estimator is used. Evidence from Taiwan indicates that the crowding–in effect dominated the pre–1980 period; the substitutability dominates the post–1980 period. It renders unconvincing the Keynesian plea for expansionary fiscal policy of Taiwan since the 1980s. A Mundell–Fleming approach is proposed to explain this dating.     

Infrastructure Spending and Unemployment: Government Responsibility for Growth and Jobs

Australia has not had full employment for 20 years. Reliance on growth through microeconomic reform has failed. To restore full employment, the government must pursue a judicious program of infrastructure spending.     

Comment on 'Infrastructure Spending and Unemployment: Government Responsibility for Growth and Jobs'

The level of public investment in infrastructure should be decided by cost-benefit analysis. To use the employment consequences as an additional criterion to the cost-benefit test, as Kenyon argues, would probably be counterproductive for the aggregate level of employment.     

日本政府财政支出的经济增长效应及启示

政府财政支出与经济增长存在一定的相关关系,但孰为因果莫衷一是。通过对1956-2008年日本政府财政支出与经济增长的协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验,发现日本政府财政投资性支出与财政消费性支出均与经济增长长期内存在稳定的正向协整关系及单向因果关系,经济增长是财政支出增长的格兰杰因,而财政支出无论是投资性还是消费性支出都不是经济增长的格兰杰因。从这一结论出发,我国应吸取日本的经验教训,在实施积极的财政政策时,要控制规模、优化结构、确保质量、提高效益。     

宏观经济波动与服务业结构变动的相关分析

随着我国经济发展,服务业在推动经济增长、优化产业结构中起着越来越重要的作用,宏观经济变化与服务业结构变动的关系也越来越密切.为深入揭示宏观经济波动指标与服务业结构变动之间的内在联系,本文基于改革开放以来的中国宏观统计数据,运用Moore结构变化值、HP滤波方法、格兰杰因果检验等定量方法,系统分析宏观经济波动与服务业结构变动的相关性.分析表明,服务业结构变动是影响宏观经济波动的重要原因,并且其影响是中期的,并不具有短期和长期影响.服务业结构变动主要来源于服务业内部增长率的波动.运用VAR模型分析表明,服务业内部增长率波动与宏观经济波动之间存在四条传导途径,其中以房地产为枢纽的途径作用明显.总的来说,服务业结构变动对宏观经济波动具有中期影响,政府应当通过控制传导途径以平抑服务业结构变动对宏观经济波动的影响.     

我国城市化影响政府公共支出的理论与实证

在工业化向城市化转变的过程中,中国政府的目标发生了变化.工业化时期,政府动员一切可利用的资源发展经济,而在城市化阶段,政府转向福利支出目标.这一转变表现为经济建设费支出比重减小而公共财政支出比重不断增大.本文分析了中国城市化使政府公共支出比重增大,并进行了实证分析.城市化率每增加1个百分点,公共财政支出比重就增加0.6293个百分点,且公共财政支出比重随收入差距扩大而增大.     

经济下行压力下的风险研判及宏观政策应对

2018年中国经济总体较为平稳,但也出现了一定的下行压力。主要表现为:投资和消费增速下滑幅度较大;出口增速出现回落迹象;民营企业利润显著下滑;企业用工需求开始减弱;企业家、居民和银行家等微观主体信心指数较为低迷。当前,我国经济内需持续疲软,外需增长难以持续。民营企业生产经营压力加大导致经济内在增长动力不足,公众的乐观预期也出现一定程度的减弱,这些因素将掣肘未来我国经济的增长。宏观政策应针对我国经济运行中可能出现的民企债务违约、居民消费增速过快下滑、民间投资再次快速下滑、地方债务进一步膨胀、股市持续低迷与人民币汇率贬值扰乱公众预期、外部风险对国内经济的冲击等风险,加大力度和加强协调。具体看,需要做好以下工作:加强疏通货币政策传导机制;重点通过减税降费等方式降低当前偏高的宏观税负;进一步完善宏观审慎管理框架;加强各类宏观政策之间的协调配合;加强宏观政策的预期管理。     

我国高校实施政府采购制度存在的问题及其对策

我国《政府采购法》颁布实施以来,高等学校的基建工程和教学仪器设备等物资采购逐步纳入了政府采购的范围,而传统采购模式下物权管理混乱、资金使用率和采购透明度不高、采购预算盲目等问题得到了初步解决.但由于政府采购在高校推行的时间较短、缺乏经验,存在亟待解决的问题.因此,应结合高校当前采购工作的特点,规范政府采购行为,建立配套的资金管理模式,做好年度预算编制,提高资金使用效率,使政府采购工作更好地为教学科研服务.     

Government size and macroeconomic stability: A comment

We show that in a standard, technology shock-driven one-sector real business cycle model, the stabilization effects of government fiscal policy depend crucially on how labor hours enter the household's period utility function and the associated labor-market behavior. In particular, as Galí [European Economic Review 38 (1994), 117-132] has shown, when the household utility is logarithmic in both consumption and leisure, income taxes are destabilizing and government purchases are stabilizing. However, the results are reversed when preferences are instead convex in hours worked. That is, income taxes are now stabilizing and public spending is destabilizing. Furthermore, under both preference specifications, the magnitude of cyclical fluctuations in output remains unchanged when the income tax rate and the share of government purchases in GDP are equal (including laissez-faire).     

滞胀风险下的宏观经济调整与货币政策选择

随着金融危机向实体经济转移和扩散,我国经济增长出现下滑,已远低于潜在增长率;而由宽松货币政策所导致的广义货币供应量在不断增加,通货膨胀压力正逐步显现。在外需短期无法恢复、内需相对不足的情况下,滞胀的风险在逐步加大。VEC模型结果表明:货币流通速度、广义货币供应量增长速度共同决定我国通货膨胀率。当经济景气程度上升、货币流通速度加快时,货币供应量增长过快会引发通货膨胀。因此,现阶段应在有效监控经济景气程度和货币流通速度的基础上,对宏观经济政策进行微调,以便提高政策搭配效果,有效化解风险。