Clustering Methods for Real Estate Portfolios

A clustering algorithm is applied to effective rents for twenty-one metropolitan U.S. office markets, and to twenty-two metropolitan markets using vacancy data. It provides support for the conjecture that there exists a few major "families" of cities: including an oil and gas group and an industrial Northeast group. Unlike other clustering studies, we find strong evidence of bicoastal city associations among cities such as Boston and Los Angeles. We present a bootstrapping methodology for investigating the robustness of the clustering algorithm, and develop a means for testing the significance of city associations. While the analysis is limited to aggregate rent and vacancy data, the results provide a guideline for the further application of cluster analysis to other types of real estate and economic information.     

Historic Returns and Institutional Real Estate Portfolios

This study employs a sample of equity REIT portfolios from 1972–78 to investigate various aspects of real estate returns. Return estimates are derived for the unlevered cash yields by property size, type and location. Based on these data, the effects of certain kinds of diversification on risk-adjusted returns are examined. Finally, historic REIT portfolios are compared to current commingled fund portfolios and suggestions made concerning the benefits of restructuring.     

The Impact of Market Imperfections on Real Estate Returns and Optimal Investor Portfolios

This study investigates the consequences of several imperfections associated with real estate markets on pricing and optimal investor portfolios from a CAPM context. CAPM assumptions are relaxed to recognize illiquidity, the consumption and investment attributes of owner-occupied housing, and a mildly segmented market structure. The study finds that relaxing the CAPM assumptions lead to a separate pricing paradigm for financial assets, income-producing real estate and owner-occupied housing respectively, that a "dividend effect" arises for real estate as the result of illiquidity, and that illiquidity reduces the extent to which investors hold real estate in their portfolios.     

The Optimal Duration of Real Estate Listing Contracts

The length of the real estate listing contract is examined as a means of providing an incentive for brokers to act in the best interest of home sellers. A limitation on the duration of the contract accomplishes this objective by imposing a cost (namely, the foregone commission) on brokers who fail to complete a sale before the contract expires. The seller's optimal contract duration balances the benefits of improved incentives against the expected cost of renegotiating a new contract in the event of a failure bv the broker.     

房产

城市别墅全享价值,五期临河珍藏火热公开 距离徐家汇仅约20分钟车程的银都名墅,以近7成的土地面积建造江南园林景观。是一座城市中的森林公园。银都名墅专门挑选30年以上的成年桦树.种植在中国居住文化里象徵阖家兴旺的竹林。     

Commercial Real Estate Returns

In the commercial real estate market, which is perceived to be relatively inefficient, investors have comparative advantages; hence there are significant costs to diversification. This paper presents for the first time a series of market (or quasi-market) returns for a large data base. This data base is believed to be the most complete commercial real estate data base yet constructed. The paper empirically evaluates the benefits of diversification along various dimensions within the commercial real estate opportunity set. The analysis confirms certain aspects of prior work concerning inflation protection and diversification opportunities while concluding that even investment grade real estate investments are heterogeneous assets.     

房地产投资风险管理

对房地产投资开发过程中所存在的各种风险进行了分析,运用数学和概率统计的知识,分析了衡量房地产投资风险大小的几种方法,并提出了针对各种潜在风险的规避与控制措施。     

Measuring Residential Real Estate Liquidity

There are many factors, other than price alone, that may affect the liquidity of real estate. This study develops a liquidity measure based on the Cox proportional hazard technique, a statistical model widely used in the epidemiologic and social sciences. The odds ratio, along with an estimate of market value for a home, are used to construct a liquidity measure. This measure can extract from the data a rich statistical profile of the variables that affect liquidity.     

The Real Estate Pricing Puzzle

The state-of-the-art with respect to pricing real estate is similar to that with respect to pricing securities just prior to the development of the CAPM. Reading the entrails of real estate markets, however, has proven a formidable task, and the problem is not limited to inadequate data. Perhaps the most important lesson to date is that available pricing models are not up to the task.     

Real Estate Returns and Inflation

The ability of assets to protect an investor from purchasing power risk due to inflation has received a good deal of attention in the literature recently. The focus of much of this research has been on the properties of common stocks as inflation hedges. Bodie [1976] finds that the real return on equity is negatively related to both anticipated and unanticipated inflation; a similar result is obtained by Fama and Schwert [1977] . Bernard and Frecka [1983] examine individual common stock returns and find that the majority exhibit this negative relationship. This paper uses similar logic to examine the ability of a well-diversified portfolio of real estate to hedge against anticipated and unanticipated inflation.     

Research on Real Estate Investment

AREUEA is pleased to acknowledge the financial support of the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) whose members are listed on the preceding page. We also thank Mike Miles for his role in maintaining an excellent relationship between NCREIF and AREUEA over the years. Finally, the editors acknowledge the continuing financial support of their colleges at The Ohio State University and of the Homer Hoyt Institute.     

房地产信托火爆的背后

一边是房地产信托的火爆,一边是监管层对其风险的关注,如何控制风险,是投资人必须谨慎对待的事项。11月7日,银监会发布的通知给火热的房地产信托市场提了一个醒,通知警示信托公司不得违规操作,放大行业风险。而在此之前,这一市场确实火爆得异乎寻常。     

Debt Capacity of Real Estate Collateral

We study whether real estate assets have a greater positive influence on firm leverage than other tangible assets. Using a large sample of COMPUSTAT firms, we find a significant positive relation between tangibility and leverage in general, and the relation is strongest for real estate collateral. Furthermore, we find that the relation holds only for credit‐constrained firms, i.e., those likely to highly value the additional borrowing capacity of real estate. Our results imply that knowing the composition of a firm's tangible assets is important in understanding its leverage. Our findings could help explain why real estate investment trusts are relatively highly leveraged, even though debt offers them no tax benefit.     

Diversification Categories in Investment Real Estate

This paper continues previous work evaluating the benefits of diversification and analyzes the various dimensions within the commercial real estate opportunity set. The database is large and extends through the 1982 downturn in property values. Due to the low levels of systematic risk, current distinctions by region and property type make little sense in a world of costly diversification. More exacting categories combining property type, SMSA growth rate and lease maturity offer promise for more efficient diversification within the real estate portfolio.     

The Substitutability of Real Estate Assets

This paper investigates the degree of substitutability between securitized real estate assets and real estate assets whose prices are appraisal-based. Given the insensitivity of unsecuritized asset's returns to the returns on stock market indices, equilibrium asset pricing models cannot be used to compare these two avenues of investment. Two assets are deemed substitutable if the information sets underlying unbiased, minimum error variance estimates of their pricing parameters are identical. The empirical evidence shows that the prices of the transactions-based assets—real estate investment trusts and the stock price index of the home building industry—follow a random walk while the prices of the appraisal-based assets—FRC/NCREIF indices—do not. The variance decompositions of the vector autoregressions also show that the level of economic activity helps predict the price indices of appraisal-based assets while the stock market index and the term structure of interest rates are better predictors of the prices of transactions-based assets     

Subprime Lending and Real Estate Prices

This article establishes a theoretical and empirical link between the use of aggressive mortgage lending instruments, such as interest‐only, negative‐amortization or subprime mortgages, and the underlying house prices. Such instruments, which come into existence through innovation or financial deregulation, allow more borrowing than otherwise would occur in previously affordability‐constrained markets. Within the context of a model with an endogenous rent‐buy decision, we demonstrate that the supply of aggressive lending instruments temporarily increases the asset prices in the underlying market because agents find it more attractive to own or because their borrowing constraint is relaxed, or both. This result implies that the availability of aggressive mortgage lending instruments magnifies the real estate cycle and the effects of fundamental demand shocks. We empirically confirm the predictions of the model using recent subprime origination experience. In particular, we find that regions that receive a high concentration of aggressive lending instruments experience larger price increases and subsequent declines than areas with low concentration of such instruments. This result holds in the presence of various controls and instrumental variables.