Social class, social mobility and mortality in the Netherlands, 1850–2004

This study uses data from a random sample of births in the Netherlands during the period 1850–1922 to examine the relationships between social class, social mobility and mortality at middle and old age. Population registers and personal cards covering the period from 1850 to 2004 for all Dutch provinces were used to reconstruct individual life histories of 14,900 births. For men we did not find an effect of the social class of origin (using two different SES-classifications) on mortality in age group 18 to 35. We also did not observe an effect of own social class on mortality after age 35. For women effects of social class of origin and social class of husband were generally absent as well. Our conclusion is that the standard ideas about the negative effects of processes of industrialization and urbanization on the duration of life do not seem to apply to the Netherlands. Where one lived mattered more for survival than the social class one belonged to.     

The late emergence of socioeconomic mortality differentials: A micro-level study of adult mortality in southern Sweden 1815–1968

This paper deals with socioeconomic differences in adult mortality in southern Sweden 1815–1968, a period of transformation from an agricultural to a modern industrial society and increasing life expectancy. We use longitudinal micro-level data with information on demographic events, household structure and socioeconomic status. The main finding is that the socioeconomic gradient is a very recent phenomenon. While mortality fell in all socioeconomic groups it was not until the 1950s that a socioeconomic gradient appeared, and then only among adults in working ages. For the elderly, we find no significant mortality differentials between various social groups at any time. These results are consistent with the divergence hypothesis, although this process started much later than previously thought, and was not an immediate consequence of industrialization.     

Fertility decline and the heights of children in Britain, 1886–1938

In this paper we argue that the fertility decline that began around 1880 had substantial positive effects on the health of children, as the quality–quantity trade-off would suggest. We use microdata from a unique survey from 1930s Britain to analyse the relationship at the household level between the standardised heights of children and the number of children in the family. Our results suggest that heights are influenced positively by family income per capita and negatively by the number of children or the degree of crowding in the household. The evidence suggests that family size affected the health of children through its influence on both nutrition and disease. Applying our results to long-term trends, we find that rising household income and falling family size contributed significantly to improving child health between 1886 and 1938. Between 1906 and 1938 these variables account for 40% of the increase in heights, and much of this effect is due to falling family size. We conclude that the fertility decline is a neglected source of the rapid improvement in health in the first half of the twentieth century.     

Once were farmers: Occupation, social mobility, and mortality during industrialization in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Quebec 1840–1971

We study men's adult mortality and longevity by socio-occupational status during industrialization in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Quebec. Data were extracted from the BALSAC database (Université du Québec à Chicoutimi), which comprehensively traces the demographic history of the region since the beginning of the French Canadian settlement in 1840 up to the early 1970s. Using five occupational classes and controlling for year, age at marriage, urban/rural residence, and literacy, we found no evidence for the emergence of a socioeconomic gradient in mortality. At least until the early 1970s, mortality in the region is the lowest for farmers and appears to be driven by occupational risk rather than fundamental social causes.     

The health cost of living in a city: The case of France at the end of the 19th century

Despite a long standing debate over urban living conditions during industrialization, the impact of rural–urban migrations on health and mortality remains an open question. We observe both mortality and geographical mobility in a large longitudinal dataset of French males and show that rural–urban migrants benefited from clear advantages over those who already lived in the city. However, this benefit fades in a few years. Further we find no evidence of a spike in mortality among rural migrants as they encountered the more severe disease environment of cities, instead it seems their initially superior physical human capital was depleted over time.     

Inequality and infant and childhood mortality in the United States in the twentieth century

This paper deals with the issue of using infant and childhood mortality as an indicator of inequality. The case is that of the United States in the 20th century. Using microdata from the 1900 and 1910 Integrated Public Use Microsamples (IPUMS), published data from the Birth Registration Area in the 1920s, results from a number of surveys, and the Linked Birth & Infant Death Files from the National Center for Health Statistics for 1991, infant and child mortality can be related to such other variables as occupation of father or mother, education of father or mother, family income, race, ethnicity, and residence. The evidence shows that, although there have been large absolute reductions in the level of infant and child mortality rates and also a reduction in the absolute levels of differences across socioeconomic groups, relative inequality has not diminished over the 20th century.     

Serial defaults, serial profits: Returns to sovereign lending in Habsburg Spain, 1566–1600

Philip II of Spain accumulated debts equivalent to 60% of GDP. He also defaulted four times on his short-term loans, thus becoming the first serial defaulter in history. Contrary to a common view in the literature, we show that lending to the king was profitable even under worst-case scenario assumptions. Lenders maintained long-term relationships with the crown. Losses sustained during defaults were more than compensated by profits in normal times. Defaults were not catastrophic events. In effect, short-term lending acted as an insurance mechanism, allowing the king to reduce his payments in harsh times in exchange for paying a premium in tranquil periods.     

Was Malthus right? The relationship between population and real wages in Italian history, 1320 to 1870

In this article we investigate the relation between population and real wages in the Italian economy during the period 1320–1870. The main result is that the positive check is strong and statistically significant but the other equilibrating mechanism in the Malthusian model – the preventive check – based on the positive relationship between fertility and real wages does not operate in pre-industrial Italy. In contrast to the Malthusian hypothesis, we find a negative feedback from wage to population. The empirical result is clearly consistent with the theoretical framework of the “old age security motive”. We show, with a simple overlapping-generation model, that by allowing for substitution in a pre-industrial economy between child quantity and other assets (such as new seeds, better soybean quality, and new cultivation and irrigation methods) fertility may be negatively affected whenever income rises.     

Agricultural institutions, industrialization and growth: The case of New Zealand and Uruguay in 1870–1940

In this paper we apply a model of early industrialization to the case of New Zealand and Uruguay in 1870–1940. We show how differences in agricultural institutions may have produced different development paths in two countries which were similar under many respects. While in New Zealand the active role of the Crown in regulating the land market facilitated access to land, in Uruguay land was seized by a small group of large landowners. Our model shows that land concentration may have negatively influenced industrialization and growth by impeding the formation of a large group of middle-income landowners and, as a consequence, the development of a domestic demand for basic manufactures. We support this view with a comparative analysis of agricultural institutions and industrial development in New Zealand and Uruguay.     

Income inequality in central Spain, 1690–1800

This paper studies the evolution of income inequality in central Spain during the late seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, taking as case study the province of Guadalajara. The first part of the paper presents the sources and the dataset that was created to estimate income inequality using grain tithes. The second section shows that through the period grain represented the lion share of total income and therefore that it can be used as a reliable proxy. The following part of the paper introduces an analysis of income inequality in the province during the period 1690–1800 and concludes that inequality decreased during the last third of the eighteenth century. Finally the paper addresses this unexpected result and concludes that it was consequence of the success of the land reform carried out by the central government in the late 1760s. The reform was a success in Guadalajara, thanks to the characteristics of its population and the lack of bargaining power of pressure groups.     

The rise and fall of spatial inequalities in France: A long-run perspective

This paper studies the evolution and determinants of spatial inequalities in France. To this end, we use a unique database providing data on value-added, employment, and population over the entire set of French “Départements” in 1860, 1896, 1930, 1982, and 2000. These data cover three sectors: Agriculture, Manufacturing, and Services. Firstly, we confirm the existence of a bell-shaped process of spatial concentration in Manufacturing and Services over time. In contrast, labor productivity has been converging across departments. Secondly, we find considerable agglomeration economies over the whole period. The spatial distribution of these gains is determined mainly by market potential in the first sub-period, 1860–1930, and higher education in the second, 1930–2000.     

A new anatomy of the retirement process in Japan

In Japan, retirement is a gradual process that transpires over a particularly long period of time. Using large scale micro-level datasets from the Survey of Employment of the Elderly compiled by the Japanese government, we provide some stylized facts on the development of retirement behavior since the 1980s and explore factors affecting the individual retirement decision. First, we observed a general declining trend in the proportion of retired individuals aged 55–59 (especially females) while the proportion of retired individuals aged 65–69 (especially males) increased. Second, the survival analysis on actual retirement age shows that those who are more educated are more likely to retire earlier and those who experienced mandatory retirement are less likely. Third, the survival analysis on the expected retirement age shows that individuals who are satisfied with their job in terms of nonmonetary rewards are less likely to retire earlier.     

Commercialization as exogenous shocks: The effect of the soybean trade and migration in Manchurian villages, 1895–1934

The effects of commercialization and migration in traditional agrarian economies such as China's during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries have been a subject of ferocious debate. Using data from Manchuria on soybean cultivation and exports, we employ difference-in-differences and instrumental variable approaches to demonstrate a significantly positive relationship between growing soybeans for export and the returns to migration. Those who migrated to Manchuria in response to high market prices, and to villages more suitable for cultivating soy prospered most; they owned approximately two-thirds more of the arable land and one-third more of houses than those who failed to do so. Evidence suggests that the positive welfare effect of commercialization-cum-migration was confined not only to the rich, who seek to relieve the “land constraint” at home, but possibly also to the poor.     

Socioeconomic inequalities in death from past to present: An introduction

In the early postwar period, improvements in life expectancy in many Western countries made health authorities, health scientists and politicians believe that social differences in mortality converged. The assumption was that inequality, when measured as death rates, was on steady decline, possibly even on the brink of disappearing. The question is then, how far back in time can social differences in mortality be traced? Can they be traced back to the agricultural society or are they a result of industrialization? Whether or not these differences are the result of the industrial revolution became a lively debated issue at the time and has continued to be discussed to date. While many scholars have taken a Malthusian view, that mortality in the past was largely determined by economic factors, others argue that mortality was determined by non-economic factors, leaving little room for a social gradient in mortality. Due to lack of coherent data covering long time periods, our knowledge has been based on bits and pieces of evidence from various locations and time periods. The evidence used is not only fragmentary but furthermore only partly comparable as different definitions of social class and mortality have been used.Here we present results from seven new studies of locations in Western and Southern Europe, the US and Canada for which individual-level longitudinal data exists during the industrialization period. Most of these studies cover also the first part of the twentieth century, a period for which such microdata hitherto has largely been lacking. Taken together, they have a wide geographic coverage and a very long time horizon. Based on these studies, we argue that social differences appeared both long before and long after the industrial breakthrough, in both cases implying that these differences are not directly related to industrialization. We also argue that the association between income and mortality observed today most likely is a recent phenomenon. Overall, a causal link between income and mortality is put into question.     

The Western European marriage pattern and economic development

For several centuries before the First World War women's age at first marriage in the west of Europe was higher than in the east (and in the rest of the world). In their low mortality regimes Western Europeans chose lower fertility in part through a higher female age at marriage. This allowed women to increase their human capital both formally and informally in the years before child bearing so that more informed mothers brought up better educated offspring. The demographic pattern influenced the stock of human capital and directly contributed to Western Europe's development advantage. The predicted relations of this economic model of the household are tested with two datasets, one at the county level for England for the second half of the nineteenth century and the other at the national level for Europe 1870–1910.     

China's grain marketing system reform in 1993–1994: empirical evidence from a rural household survey

By utilizing a rural household survey, this paper domonstrates the progress in China's grain marketing reform in 1993 and evaluates to what extent the reform was reversed in 1994. Specifically, we investigate the degree of commercialization, changes in state's contract procurement quota and changes in the marketing channels. Overall, the grain market has been liberalized to a very large extent. Participation of the private traders have already grown to a significant level, occupying more than one-third of the market share for wheat and rice and more than half for maize. For minor crops, the share of private traders were even bigger. Despite the reversal in 1994, the grain market was still very “open.” Counting all grain types, the state was controlling only about one-third of the marketed surplus. However, if the central leadership perceived any serious instability in the market for a certain grain, examples provided illustrate how the state's control could certainly be strengthened significantly.     

Exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI): Japanese investment in Asia, 1987–2008

The paper estimates the impact of exchange rate movements on foreign direct investment (FDI). By using the panel data of Japanese FDI flows to nine dynamic Asian economies during 1987–2008, the paper finds that (i) FDI declined with a depreciation of the yen against host country currencies; (ii) it increased with exchange rate volatility; and (iii) it was little affected by the Asian financial crisis, especially when disguised financial flows were removed from the data. A novel result concerns the negative response of FDI to the third moment of monthly exchange rate changes: the volume of FDI was smaller when the distribution was positively skewed (i.e., when the yen was biased towards relatively large depreciation shocks). If skewness proxies for expected mean-reverting changes, this supports the idea that source country investors care about the future stream of revenues and returns denominated in their own currency. These results are robust, with other standard control variables having statistically significant coefficients with expected signs.