Long-term changes in social mortality differentials, Geneva, 1625–2004

In this paper we argue that in order to test competing hypotheses on the emergence of social mortality differentials, one has to adopt a long-term perspective. Studying social inequality in mortality in Geneva from 1625 to 2005, we use historical mortality data published by different authors and contemporary data drawn from an ongoing research project. The comparison over four centuries gives evidence to both the constancy and convergence hypotheses. Mortality is systematically lower-than-average among elites on the one hand, but on the other hand the difference between the top and the bottom of the social ladder is decreasing over time.     

Once were farmers: Occupation, social mobility, and mortality during industrialization in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Quebec 1840–1971

We study men's adult mortality and longevity by socio-occupational status during industrialization in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Quebec. Data were extracted from the BALSAC database (Université du Québec à Chicoutimi), which comprehensively traces the demographic history of the region since the beginning of the French Canadian settlement in 1840 up to the early 1970s. Using five occupational classes and controlling for year, age at marriage, urban/rural residence, and literacy, we found no evidence for the emergence of a socioeconomic gradient in mortality. At least until the early 1970s, mortality in the region is the lowest for farmers and appears to be driven by occupational risk rather than fundamental social causes.     

Fertility decline and the heights of children in Britain, 1886–1938

In this paper we argue that the fertility decline that began around 1880 had substantial positive effects on the health of children, as the quality–quantity trade-off would suggest. We use microdata from a unique survey from 1930s Britain to analyse the relationship at the household level between the standardised heights of children and the number of children in the family. Our results suggest that heights are influenced positively by family income per capita and negatively by the number of children or the degree of crowding in the household. The evidence suggests that family size affected the health of children through its influence on both nutrition and disease. Applying our results to long-term trends, we find that rising household income and falling family size contributed significantly to improving child health between 1886 and 1938. Between 1906 and 1938 these variables account for 40% of the increase in heights, and much of this effect is due to falling family size. We conclude that the fertility decline is a neglected source of the rapid improvement in health in the first half of the twentieth century.     

The late emergence of socioeconomic mortality differentials: A micro-level study of adult mortality in southern Sweden 1815–1968

This paper deals with socioeconomic differences in adult mortality in southern Sweden 1815–1968, a period of transformation from an agricultural to a modern industrial society and increasing life expectancy. We use longitudinal micro-level data with information on demographic events, household structure and socioeconomic status. The main finding is that the socioeconomic gradient is a very recent phenomenon. While mortality fell in all socioeconomic groups it was not until the 1950s that a socioeconomic gradient appeared, and then only among adults in working ages. For the elderly, we find no significant mortality differentials between various social groups at any time. These results are consistent with the divergence hypothesis, although this process started much later than previously thought, and was not an immediate consequence of industrialization.     

Income inequality in central Spain, 1690–1800

This paper studies the evolution of income inequality in central Spain during the late seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, taking as case study the province of Guadalajara. The first part of the paper presents the sources and the dataset that was created to estimate income inequality using grain tithes. The second section shows that through the period grain represented the lion share of total income and therefore that it can be used as a reliable proxy. The following part of the paper introduces an analysis of income inequality in the province during the period 1690–1800 and concludes that inequality decreased during the last third of the eighteenth century. Finally the paper addresses this unexpected result and concludes that it was consequence of the success of the land reform carried out by the central government in the late 1760s. The reform was a success in Guadalajara, thanks to the characteristics of its population and the lack of bargaining power of pressure groups.     

Socioeconomic inequalities in death from past to present: An introduction

In the early postwar period, improvements in life expectancy in many Western countries made health authorities, health scientists and politicians believe that social differences in mortality converged. The assumption was that inequality, when measured as death rates, was on steady decline, possibly even on the brink of disappearing. The question is then, how far back in time can social differences in mortality be traced? Can they be traced back to the agricultural society or are they a result of industrialization? Whether or not these differences are the result of the industrial revolution became a lively debated issue at the time and has continued to be discussed to date. While many scholars have taken a Malthusian view, that mortality in the past was largely determined by economic factors, others argue that mortality was determined by non-economic factors, leaving little room for a social gradient in mortality. Due to lack of coherent data covering long time periods, our knowledge has been based on bits and pieces of evidence from various locations and time periods. The evidence used is not only fragmentary but furthermore only partly comparable as different definitions of social class and mortality have been used.Here we present results from seven new studies of locations in Western and Southern Europe, the US and Canada for which individual-level longitudinal data exists during the industrialization period. Most of these studies cover also the first part of the twentieth century, a period for which such microdata hitherto has largely been lacking. Taken together, they have a wide geographic coverage and a very long time horizon. Based on these studies, we argue that social differences appeared both long before and long after the industrial breakthrough, in both cases implying that these differences are not directly related to industrialization. We also argue that the association between income and mortality observed today most likely is a recent phenomenon. Overall, a causal link between income and mortality is put into question.     

Agricultural institutions, industrialization and growth: The case of New Zealand and Uruguay in 1870–1940

In this paper we apply a model of early industrialization to the case of New Zealand and Uruguay in 1870–1940. We show how differences in agricultural institutions may have produced different development paths in two countries which were similar under many respects. While in New Zealand the active role of the Crown in regulating the land market facilitated access to land, in Uruguay land was seized by a small group of large landowners. Our model shows that land concentration may have negatively influenced industrialization and growth by impeding the formation of a large group of middle-income landowners and, as a consequence, the development of a domestic demand for basic manufactures. We support this view with a comparative analysis of agricultural institutions and industrial development in New Zealand and Uruguay.     

The health cost of living in a city: The case of France at the end of the 19th century

Despite a long standing debate over urban living conditions during industrialization, the impact of rural–urban migrations on health and mortality remains an open question. We observe both mortality and geographical mobility in a large longitudinal dataset of French males and show that rural–urban migrants benefited from clear advantages over those who already lived in the city. However, this benefit fades in a few years. Further we find no evidence of a spike in mortality among rural migrants as they encountered the more severe disease environment of cities, instead it seems their initially superior physical human capital was depleted over time.     

Commercialization as exogenous shocks: The effect of the soybean trade and migration in Manchurian villages, 1895–1934

The effects of commercialization and migration in traditional agrarian economies such as China's during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries have been a subject of ferocious debate. Using data from Manchuria on soybean cultivation and exports, we employ difference-in-differences and instrumental variable approaches to demonstrate a significantly positive relationship between growing soybeans for export and the returns to migration. Those who migrated to Manchuria in response to high market prices, and to villages more suitable for cultivating soy prospered most; they owned approximately two-thirds more of the arable land and one-third more of houses than those who failed to do so. Evidence suggests that the positive welfare effect of commercialization-cum-migration was confined not only to the rich, who seek to relieve the “land constraint” at home, but possibly also to the poor.     

Serial defaults, serial profits: Returns to sovereign lending in Habsburg Spain, 1566–1600

Philip II of Spain accumulated debts equivalent to 60% of GDP. He also defaulted four times on his short-term loans, thus becoming the first serial defaulter in history. Contrary to a common view in the literature, we show that lending to the king was profitable even under worst-case scenario assumptions. Lenders maintained long-term relationships with the crown. Losses sustained during defaults were more than compensated by profits in normal times. Defaults were not catastrophic events. In effect, short-term lending acted as an insurance mechanism, allowing the king to reduce his payments in harsh times in exchange for paying a premium in tranquil periods.     

Inequality and infant and childhood mortality in the United States in the twentieth century

This paper deals with the issue of using infant and childhood mortality as an indicator of inequality. The case is that of the United States in the 20th century. Using microdata from the 1900 and 1910 Integrated Public Use Microsamples (IPUMS), published data from the Birth Registration Area in the 1920s, results from a number of surveys, and the Linked Birth & Infant Death Files from the National Center for Health Statistics for 1991, infant and child mortality can be related to such other variables as occupation of father or mother, education of father or mother, family income, race, ethnicity, and residence. The evidence shows that, although there have been large absolute reductions in the level of infant and child mortality rates and also a reduction in the absolute levels of differences across socioeconomic groups, relative inequality has not diminished over the 20th century.     

Testing contagion of the 1997–98 crisis in Asian stock markets with structural breaks and incubation periods

This study tests for the existence of financial contagion, using a method that allows an incubation period before contagion takes effect. We define contagion as an increase in cross-market linkages following shocks. With daily data on Asian stock markets during the 1997–98 crisis, we find significant upward shifts in the linkages between the Asian markets of both crisis and non-crisis countries. The upward shifts are maintained even after controlling for heteroskedasticity and common world and regional factors, providing strong evidence for financial contagion.     

Responding to the global financial crisis: Vietnamese exchange rate policy, 2008–2009

The paper presents an analysis of exchange rate policy in Vietnam during 2008–2009. In early 2008, the country faced a sudden reversal of capital flows as signs of developing domestic vulnerabilities became evident. The downward pressure on the dong then intensified with the onset of the global financial crisis in the fall. In these environments, the Vietnamese authorities responded with various exchange rate policy measures. The paper documents a shift in Vietnam's de facto exchange rate regime, from a basket peg to a simple US dollar peg, when the domestic vulnerabilities became compounded by the evolving global crisis. The authorities utilized additional measures to relieve pressure on the parallel exchange rate. An event study methodology finds little evidence of systematic effectiveness for these policy actions; any effectiveness was short-lived. A close examination of individual actions suggests that the impact of foreign exchange market intervention appeared more consistent than any other type of measure and most effective when combined with other measures.     

Was Malthus right? The relationship between population and real wages in Italian history, 1320 to 1870

In this article we investigate the relation between population and real wages in the Italian economy during the period 1320–1870. The main result is that the positive check is strong and statistically significant but the other equilibrating mechanism in the Malthusian model – the preventive check – based on the positive relationship between fertility and real wages does not operate in pre-industrial Italy. In contrast to the Malthusian hypothesis, we find a negative feedback from wage to population. The empirical result is clearly consistent with the theoretical framework of the “old age security motive”. We show, with a simple overlapping-generation model, that by allowing for substitution in a pre-industrial economy between child quantity and other assets (such as new seeds, better soybean quality, and new cultivation and irrigation methods) fertility may be negatively affected whenever income rises.     

An empirical study on the hysteresis of currency substitution in Cambodia

This paper examines whether the currency substitution (CS) phenomenon in Cambodia is in a hysteresis state. We employ a simple model of money-in-the-utility function with two currencies (home and foreign), in which the effect of network externalities on the use of foreign currency is taken into account. The equation derived from the model is estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration for the period from June 1993 to June 2009. Our estimation results indicate that (1) there exists a stable, long-run relationship among the variables considered, (2) the CS ratio increases when people expect a higher rate of depreciation in the exchange rate, and most importantly, (3) there is evidence supporting the existence of a network externality, thereby implying the hysteresis of the CS phenomenon in Cambodia. Given the characteristics of the CS process in Cambodia, any measure or policy option to bring down the CS degree must be carefully considered.     

Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration

Many studies analyze the money demand using a (fixed coefficient) cointegrating regression model, which may not be appropriate to deal with the money demand of a transition economy like China. This paper investigates this issue using a time-varying cointegration approach based on the quarterly data from 1996 to 2009. We find some interesting results: (i) the estimates of the income elasticities are between 0.60 and 0.75, which are comparable with the previous studies; (ii) the estimated interest rate elasticity supports the argument that the overall effect of the interest rate on the money holding is weak although there are some mild evidences that it has been strengthened in recent years; (iii) the substitution effect of equity asset dominates the wealth effect, especially, during the bullish market period. Our result is robust to the alternative choices of the scale or opportunity cost variables and shows that omission of the stock prices in the money demand function would possibly yield a misspecification problem.     

The trading behavior and price impact of foreign, institutional, individual investors and government: Evidence from Korean equity market

We examine the dynamic relation between stock returns and four types of investment flows using Korean daily data for the period 1998–2010, focusing on the investment/trading behavior of four types of investors – individual, institutional, government, and foreign – and the effect of cross-border investment flows on the Korean equity market. We find that, first, foreigners and institutional investors tend to drive the Korean equity market, and their trades seem to be information-driven, whereas individual investors do not drive the Korean equity market and their trades do not seem to be information-driven. Second, as a result, both foreigners and institutional investors performed well in the sample period, whereas individual investors performed poorly. Third, the four types of investors differ in their trading behavior. In response to U.S. market returns, foreigners and institutional investors tend to take a momentum strategy whereas individual investors and government tend to take a contrarian strategy.     

Real interest parity: A note on Asian countries using panel stationarity tests

Existing panel data studies of real interest parity are either unable to identify which panel members are characterised by stationary real interest differentials, or are subject to size distortion resulting from the presence of structural breaks and cross-sectional dependencies. Using a panel stationarity testing procedure recently advocated by Hadri and Rao (2008) that allows for structural breaks and cross-sectional dependency, we are unable to reject the stationarity of Asian real interest rate differentials.