Exposure,hedging, and value: New evidence from the U.S. airline industry

For a variety of reasons, the U.S. airline industry is a natural sample to analyze the relation between corporate risk exposure, hedging policy, and firm value. First, we find that airline exposures to fuel prices are higher when fuel prices are high or when they are rising. Second, we analyze the relation between exposure coefficients and the percentage of next year's fuel requirement hedged by airlines. In response to higher fuel price levels, rising fuel prices, and higher levels of exposure to fuel prices, airlines tend to increase their hedging activity. Finally, we explore the previously documented jet fuel hedging premium illustrated in Carter, Rogers, and Simkins (2006). We find a positive hedging premium in our analysis; however, the interaction of hedging and exposure does not affect firm value. We conclude that airlines increasing hedging activity because of higher fuel price exposure are not valued higher compared to those airlines employing more stable hedging policies.     

Pricing options on scenario trees

We examine valuation procedures that can be applied to incorporate options in scenario-based portfolio optimization models. Stochastic programming models use discrete scenarios to represent the stochastic evolution of asset prices. At issue is the adoption of suitable procedures to price options on the basis of the postulated discrete distributions of asset prices so as to ensure internally consistent portfolio optimization models. We adapt and implement two methods to price European options in accordance with discrete distributions represented by scenario trees and assess their performance with numerical tests. We consider features of option prices that are observed in practice. We find that asymmetries and/or leptokurtic features in the distribution of the underlying materially affect option prices; we quantify the impact of higher moments (skewness and excess kurtosis) on option prices. We demonstrate through empirical tests using market prices of the S&P500 stock index and options on the index that the proposed procedures consistently approximate the observed prices of options under different market regimes, especially for deep out-of-the-money options.     

Negative oil price shocks transmission: The comparative effects of the GFC,shale oil boom,and Covid-19 downturn on French gasoline prices

This article analyzes the transmission mechanisms between oil prices and fuel prices in France over the period 2005−2020. The econometric procedure focuses on three singular years marked by significant negative oil prices shocks: 2008 (the global financial crisis), 2014 (the sharp drop in prices due to the boom of US shale oil), 2020 (Covid-19 economic downturn). To analyze the linkages between oil and fuel prices, we use the ARDL bounds testing approach of cointegration with weekly data between January 7, 2005 and October 30, 2020. We find that over the entire period, fuel distributors report increases in oil prices more than decreases. We find that this asymmetry is highest in 2008. Our paper provides some policy recommendations based on our findings.     

Apple's agency model and the role of most‐favored‐nation clauses

The agency model used by Apple and other digital platforms delegates retail‐pricing decisions to upstream content providers subject to a fixed revenue‐sharing rule. Given competition both upstream and downstream, we consider how, under the agency model, retail prices depend on the firms' revenue‐sharing splits and the degrees to which consumers view the platforms and the goods sold on the platforms to be substitutes. We show that the agency model may not be universally adopted even if adoption would mean higher profits for all firms. Use of most‐favored‐nation clauses in these settings can ensure industry‐wide adoption and increase retail prices.     

Determinants of Secondary Market Prices for Developing Country Syndicated Loans

This paper presents our investigation of the factors that determine secondary market prices of developing country syndicated loans. Trading volume in this market has almost doubled yearly from 1985 to 1988 while average market prices declined from 73% to 41% of par value during the same period. We find that loan values depend on a country's solvency rather than its liquidity and show that a country's adoption of a debt conversion program significantly decreases its loans' market prices. Furthermore, the debt moratoria by Brazil and Peru, as well as the developing-country-specific provisions made by U.S. banks, impact loan prices negatively.     

IFRS Adoption and Stock Prices of Japanese Firms in Governance System Transition

This study examines firms' decision to voluntarily adopt IFRS in a setting where there are changes to the governance system in a traditionally code law country, as well as how the market responds to such decisions. We find the probability of voluntary IFRS adoption to be higher among firms that have a high proportion of foreign shareholders, undertake quality audits, have low levels of leverage, feature a nominating committee, and are included in the new market index. In addition, the stock prices of IFRS adopters tend to increase around the announcement date of IFRS adoption, compared to those of non-adopters. Finally, market reactions are smaller for firms that feature a nominating committee, and are included in the new market index—perhaps because IFRS adoption by these firms is less surprising to market participants, and because IFRS adoption is not expected to add large incremental value to these firms.     

IFRS reporting, firm-specific information flows, and institutional environments: international evidence

This study investigates whether and how a firm??s voluntary adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) influences the extent to which firm-specific information is capitalized into stock prices measured by stock price synchronicity. We also study the role of analyst following and institutional environments in determining the relation between IFRS reporting and synchronicity. Using firm-level data from 34 countries, we find that synchronicity is significantly lower for IFRS adopters than for non-adopters across all regression specifications and that for IFRS adopters it decreases from the pre-adoption period to the post-adoption period. This finding supports the view that voluntary IFRS adoption facilitates the incorporation of firm-specific information into stock prices, thereby reducing synchronicity. We also find that the synchronicity-reducing effect of IFRS adoption is attenuated (accentuated) for firms with high (low) analyst following and is stronger (weaker) for firms in countries with poor (good) institutional environments.     

Fuel hedging,operational hedging and risk exposure — Evidence from the global airline industry

The aviation industry is characterized by low profit margins and a constant struggle with skyrocketing fuel costs. Financial and operational hedging strategies serve aviation managers as a tool to counteract high and volatile fuel prices. While most research on fuel hedging has concentrated on the U.S. airline market, this paper is the first study to include airlines from Asia and Europe. We analyze 64 airlines over 11 years and find that Asian carriers are more negatively exposed than European airlines but less exposed than North American airlines. In contrast to Treanor, Simkins, Rogers and Carter (2012), this study finds less significant negative exposure coefficients among U.S. carriers. Using a fixed effects model we reject the hypothesis that financial hedging decreases risk exposure. One possibility is that the decreased volatility in jet fuel prices over the past few years has perhaps made airlines less exposed to fuel prices and hence, financial hedging is less effective. Operational hedging, defined by two proxies for fleet diversity, does not reduce exposure significantly, either. In contrast, a one percentage point increase in fleet diversity, calculated with a dispersion index using different aircraft types, increases the risk exposure coefficient by 1.83%. On the other hand, fleet diversity, calculated with different aircraft families, increases exposure by only 0.63%. These results are supported by the global trend of airline managers to reduce fleet diversity. Airlines have reduced their fleet diversity by 7.70% or 10.77% (depending on the proxy) between 2002 and 2012. The greatest reduction can be found among European airlines with 23.12% (28.04%).     

The price of power: The valuation of power and weather derivatives

Pricing contingent claims on power presents numerous challenges due to (1) the unique behavior of power prices, and (2) time-dependent variations in prices. We propose and implement a model in which the spot price of power is a function of two state variables: demand (load) and fuel price. In this model, any power derivative price must satisfy a PDE with boundary conditions that reflect capacity limits and the non-linear relation between load and the spot price of power. Moreover, since power is non-storable and demand is not a traded asset, the power derivative price embeds a market price of risk. Using inverse problem techniques and power forward prices from the PJM market, we solve for this market price of risk function. During 1999–2001, the upward bias in the forward price was as large as $50/MWh for some days in July. By 2005, the largest estimated upward bias had fallen to $19/MWh. These large biases are plausibly due to the extreme right skewness of power prices; this induces left skewness in the payoff to short forward positions, and a large risk premium is required to induce traders to sell power forwards. This risk premium suggests that the power market is not fully integrated with the broader financial markets.     

Inferring market power under the threat of entry: the case of the Brazilian cement industry

Consider a setting where threatened rather than actual import competition restrains a domestic oligopoly's prices. I show that not modelling the entry threat may underestimate the true degree of market power, as incumbents' blunted price responses to demand shocks resemble perfectly competitive behavior. Evidence from Brazilian cement markets points to an important role for imports in determining domestic cement prices, despite the near absence of imports. On assuming autarky, models with market power are rejected in favor of competition among incumbents. However, allowing a role for imports rejects the autarky assumption and precludes one from rejecting the presence of market power.     

Value Relevance of Comprehensive Income for the Canadian Market*

The value relevance of comprehensive income (CI) compared to net income (NI) remains unresolved. We look at this issue in the Canadian market, using association methods to determine the value relevance of reporting CI and other comprehensive income (OCI) components for stock prices and returns. The sample consists of all the firms in the S&P/TSX Composite Index that prepared their financial statements according to Canadian standards or International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) over the 2008–2016 period. Although we find no evidence that CI is more value relevant than NI for stock prices and returns, we note that some OCI components are incrementally value relevant beyond NI for both amounts. In addition, financial services firms differ from other companies in terms of the relationships between some of their OCI components and prices or returns, with such firms even driving some relationships. Relationships between OCI components and prices or returns are also affected when data from the financial crisis period are excluded, with some relationships even changing after IFRS adoption. These results inform Canadian standard setters and financial statement users that OCI components are decision useful for the Canadian market.     

Screening incentives and privacy protection in financial markets: a theoretical and empirical analysis

We study a model in which firms offer financial products to individuals, post prices for their products, and screen consumers who apply to purchase them. Any information obtained in the screening process may be traded to another firm selling related products. We show that firms' ability to sell consumer information can lead to lower prices, higher screening intensities, and increased social welfare. By exploiting variations in the adoption of local financial‐privacy ordinances in five California Bay Area counties, we are able to provide simple estimates of the effects of stricter financial‐privacy laws on mortgage denial rates during 2001–2006. Consistent with the model's predictions, denial rates for home‐purchase loans and refinancing loans decreased in counties where opt‐in privacy ordinances were adopted. Moreover, estimated foreclosure start rates during the financial crisis of 2007–2008 were higher in counties where the privacy ordinance was adopted.     

Implications for enterprise to adopt cleaner technology: From the perspective of energy market and commodity market

Business-related decision making seems more difficulty than ever before. Diffusion signals from different market make it difficult for policy makers to adopt clear strategy, and the lack of clear coping strategies will hinder stakeholders in the market from making strong investment decisions as early as possible. To cope with this problem, we propose an innovative model that can analyze production decisions and technology adoption of enterprises been faced with two coupled markets. With the help of this quantitative method, we answer the basic question of the investment path and technology adoption time in a class of enterprises, and further analyze which factors in the related markets have a more obvious impact on the decision. A novel feature of this work is that we characterize the connection mechanism of the two markets so that we can investigate the interaction between enterprises’ decisions and the markets’ signals. Our stochastic model allows for quite general dependence on energy fuel price and investment choice. Turning to the special Monte-Carlo based method, we can determine the optimal time to invest as well as the switching time. We applied this framework to an empirical case of heating technology on a highway, and found that both consumer preferences and energy prices have a significant impact on enterprise's investment strategy, but consumer preferences have a greater impact on the transition time for cleaner technologies. Also, the results have potentially important policy implications and can provide a rationale for supporting cleaner technologies.     

Does inflation targeting improve fiscal discipline?

We explore the performances of inflation targeting (IT) adoption in terms of fiscal discipline (FD), while most existing studies focus exclusively on the role of FD as a precondition for IT adoption. Using a sample of developing and developed countries, we show that IT adoption exerts a positive and significant effect on FD, a result robust to a wide variety of alternative specifications. In addition, this effect is statistically significant only in developing countries, a result that may fuel the current debate regarding the relevance of IT adoption in general, and particularly for developing countries.     

Do Islamic Bond (Sukuk) Prices Reflect Financial and Policy Uncertainty? A Quantile Regression Approach

We studied the relationship between Islamic bond (sukuk) prices and financial and policy uncertainty conditions using a quantile regression approach. Our empirical results for the period 2010–2014 show that US bond prices had a negative impact and causality effects on sukuk prices, whereas European Monetary Union bond prices only co-moved with sukuk prices. We also show that financial uncertainty had a negative effect that was limited to intermediate sukuk quantiles; moreover, sukuk prices were not affected by economic policy uncertainty or stock market returns. Therefore, although Islamic bonds are distinctive assets, their price dynamics are dependent on other bond-related asset prices and so incorporate financial market uncertainty.     

Cheaper,Greener and More Efficient: Rationalising UK Carbon Prices

Current UK energy use policies, which primarily aim to reduce carbon emissions, provide abatement incentives that vary by user and fuel, creating inefficiency. Distributional concerns are often given as a justification for the lower carbon price faced by households, but there is little rationale for carbon prices associated with the use of gas to be lower than those for electricity. We consider reforms that raise carbon prices faced by households and reduce the variation in carbon prices across gas and electricity use, improving the efficiency of emissions reduction. We show that the revenue raised from these reforms can be recycled in a way that ameliorates some of the distributional concerns. Whilst such recycling is not able to protect all poorer households, existing policy also makes distributional trade‐offs, but does so in an opaque and inefficient way.     

The strategic response by pharmaceutical firms to the Medicaid most-favored-customer rules

In 1991 a most-favored customer (MFC) rule was adopted to govern pharmaceutical prices paid by Medicaid. Theoretical models show that an MFC rule commits a firm to compete less aggressively in prices. I find that the price of branded products facing generic competition rose (4% on average). Brands protected by patents did not significantly increase in price. Generics in concentrated markets should display a strategic response to the brand's adoption of the MFC; I find that generic firms raise price more as their markets become concentrated. Hospital prices show little change. The results suggest that the MFC rule caused higher prices for some pharmaceutical customers.     

How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data

Housing is a major component of wealth. Since house prices fluctuate considerably over time, it is important to understand how these fluctuations affect households’ consumption decisions. Rising house prices may stimulate consumption by increasing households’ perceived wealth, or by relaxing borrowing constraints. This paper investigates the response of household consumption to house prices using UK micro data. We estimate the largest effect of house prices on consumption for older homeowners, and the smallest effect, insignificantly different from zero, for younger renters. This finding is consistent with heterogeneity in the wealth effect across these groups. In addition, we find that regional house prices affect regional consumption growth. Predictable changes in house prices are correlated with predictable changes in consumption, particularly for households that are more likely to be borrowing constrained, but this effect is driven by national rather than regional house prices and is important for renters as well as homeowners, suggesting that UK house prices are correlated with aggregate financial market conditions.     

Pass‐through in a concentrated industry: empirical evidence and regulatory implications

We estimate pass‐through with 30 years of data from the portland cement industry. Robust econometric evidence supports that fuel cost changes are more than fully transmitted downstream in the form of price changes. This validates an implicit pass‐through assumption made in recent academic research and regulatory analyses. We combine the econometric results with estimates of competitive conduct obtained from the literature to evaluate the incidence of market‐based CO₂ regulation. Producers bear roughly 11% of the regulatory burden and could be compensated with 16% of the revenues obtained.     

Market reaction to and valuation of IFRS reconciliation adjustments: first evidence from the UK

We investigate the market reaction to, and the value-relevance of, information contained in the mandatory transitional documents required by International Financial Reporting Standards 1 (2005). We find significant negative abnormal returns for firms reporting negative earnings reconciliation. Although the informational content of the positive earnings adjustments is value-relevant before disclosure, for negative earnings adjustments it is value-relevant only after disclosure. This finding is consistent with managers delaying the communication of bad news until IFRS compliance. A finer model shows that adjustments attributed to impairment of goodwill, share-based payments, and deferred taxes are incrementally value-relevant but that only the impairment of goodwill and deferred taxes reveal new information. Our results indicate that mandatory IFRS adoption alters investors’ beliefs about stock prices.