Automatic stabilizer feature of fixed exchange rate regimes

This paper shows that countries characterized by a financial accelerator mechanism may reverse the usual finding of the literature — flexible exchange rate regimes do a worse job of insulating open economies from external shocks. I obtain this result with a calibrated small open economy model that endogenizes foreign interest rates by linking them to the banking sector's financial leverage. This relationship renders exchange rate policy more important compared to the usual exogeneity assumption. I find empirical support for this prediction using the Local Projections method. Finally, 2nd order approximation to the model finds larger welfare losses under flexible exchange rate regimes.     

As the Current Account Turns: Disaggregating the Effects of Current Account Reversals in Industrial Countries

This paper extends the study of current account (CA) reversals by considering the implications for the composition of output and employment. It is shown that decreases in CA deficits imply increases in tradable relative to non‐tradable output and/or declines in investment. The impact of CA ‘rebalancing’ should therefore be expected to vary considerably across sectors of an economy. This intersectoral variation is studied by examining the dynamics of output, employment and prices using data for 55 sectors of the economy during 14 industrial country reversal episodes. The output and employment declines associated with CA reversals are most clearly evident in investment‐related sectors, while sectors related to primary commodities generally perform relatively well following reversals. Reversals are also followed by increases in relative inflation for tradable goods sectors.     

接收机虚假响应讨论

本文首先指出了超外差接收机的固有缺点,即它有更多的虚假响应。然后讨论了虚假响应产生的原因,以及克服方法。最后指出对于宽开接收机而言,抑制或减少虚假响应是设计超外差接收机的重要任务之一。     

Fiscal and monetary rules for a currency union

This paper addresses the optimal joint conduct of fiscal and monetary policy in a two-country model of a currency union with staggered price setting and distortionary taxes. A tractable linear-quadratic approximation permits a representation of the optimal policy plan in terms of targeting rules. In the optimal equilibrium, monetary policy should achieve aggregate price stability following a flexible inflation targeting rule. Fiscal policy should stabilize idiosyncratic shocks allowing for permanent variations of government debt but should abstain from creating inflationary expectations at the union level. Simple policy rules can approximate the optimal commitment benchmark through a mix of strict inflation targeting and flexible budget rules. Conversely, the welfare costs of balanced budget rules are at least one order of magnitude higher than conventional estimates of the costs of business cycle fluctuactions.     

Entry liberalization and export performance: a theoretical analysis in a multi-market oligopoly model

This paper is an attempt to demonstrate how the entry (costless) of firms in an industry may have a dramatic effect on exports from an industry in a country. The results have tremendous implications for LDCs suffering from resource and BOP constraints but having reservoirs of cheap labor. The welfare effects of such entry liberalization policy (or subsidy) can be stated from the Bhagwati theorem that a reduction in an only (single) distortion is necessarily welfare improving by reducing monopoly or oligopoly distortions. However, we have shown that the entry liberalization policy is welfare superior to an equivalent subsidy policy where equivalent is defined in terms of the impact on exports. As a by product, we have also shown how one can integrate the oligopoly models of trade with the general oligopoly literature. The results on the limiting behaviour of an open economy oligopoly model extend the standard results in the oligopoly theory in a closed economy.     

国际贸易技术溢出对我国的影响——基于工业制成品部门的GTAP模型分析

本文运用GTAP模型实证模拟了北美等八大区域工业制品部门的技术进步对我国经济发展、国际贸易及社会福利等方面的影响。研究发现:八大区域均能通过国际贸易技术溢出促进我国工业制成品部门技术的进步及社会福利的增加;但与Jaumotte(1999)和Connolly(2003)等文献结论不同,俄罗斯、北美和欧洲等区域对我国工业制成品部门产出及GDP增长至少在短期内有较大冲击,并会加大我国的贸易逆差。     

东道国税收激励政策的福利效应分析

应用税收激励来吸引外商直接投资是目前世界上大多数国家常用的政策手段。然而,税收激励政策在促进东道国经济增长的同时对东道国福利的影响是不确定的,需要对税收激励政策的成本和收益进行综合评估。本文对经典的Macdougall一般福利效应模型做进一步拓展,引入税收激励来分析外商直接投资对福利效应的影响,结果表明:税收激励政策能否增进一国福利水平主要取决于外资企业的技术外溢。从这个结论出发,本文对我国当前税收优惠政策的福利效应进行评述,进而对我国外商投资税收优惠提出政策建议。     

Distortions and static negative marginal gains from trade

In this paper, the method of input-output analysis is used for the case of Korea to demonstrate that the promotion of certain exports can result in static inefficiency to the economy. It appears that Korea lost a significant amount of both capital and labor via trade in competitive goods during 1970/1972. Although the simple existence of static losses at any specific point in time does not necessarily imply welfare losses to the economy over the long term, the fact that we can observe such losses implies that we should at least try to justify their existence in terms of dynamic gains.     

Tariff‐tax Reforms in Large Economies

This paper studies tariff‐tax reforms in a two‐region global New Keynesian model composed of a developing and an advanced region. In our baseline calibration, a revenue‐neutral reform that lowers tariffs in developing countries can reduce domestic welfare. The reason is that the increase in developing countries welfare due to higher output is dominated by the welfare losses stemming from the deterioration of the terms of trade. On the other hand, the reform increases output and welfare in the advanced countries and in the world as a whole. The effects that we highlight have not been studied in previous contributions to the literature, which looks at tariff‐tax reforms using a small open economy framework. Nominal rigidities have important implications for adjustment dynamics in our model. In the case of a ‘point‐for‐point’ reform, for example, price stickiness implies that the international dynamics of output is reversed compared to a revenue‐neutral reform.     

Strategic trade policy and union-firm bargaining agenda

In this paper, we revisit the issue of the scope of bargaining between duopolistic firms and unions in an open economy with strategic trade policy. It is shown that, in contrast with the case of the absence of export tax/subsidy, a right-to-manage (RTM) arrangement always emerges endogenously as a sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium in agreement between parties. Moreover, such an arrangement may be also Pareto-optimal in both exporting countries in the sense that profits, workers' welfare (provided that union's power is sufficiently high) and social welfare as a whole are higher than the efficient bargaining (EB) arrangement. Moreover, since the government of the country in which there is EB (while in the other country the alternative agenda RTM is used) levies a tax on export, then the conventional result that under quantity competition it is always optimal for exporting countries to subsidise exports may be reversed.     

Welfare implications of trade liberalization and fiscal reform: A quantitative experiment

This paper studies the welfare implications of revenue-neutral trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs for developing economies using a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We analyze how different combinations of tariffs – on imported consumption goods, intermediate inputs, and capital goods – and taxes – on consumption, labor income and capital income – affect the transitional and long-run welfare. We report three main findings. First, trade liberalization programs financed by consumption and labor income taxes tend to result in substantial welfare gains, but financing the lost tariff revenue through capital income taxes can have an adverse impact on welfare. Second, a significant fraction of welfare changes is due to transitional effects stemming from the allocation of resources in response to changes in tariffs and taxes. Third, trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs often translate into much larger welfare gains in countries that are more open to international financial markets.     

Tariff and Consumption Tax Reforms in a Developing Tourism Economy

This paper examines the effects of a coordinated tax reform by replacing import tariffs with point-by-point increases in consumption taxes for a small-open developing tourism economy. Foreign tourists demand for the non-traded goods provided in the informal sector of the host economy, resulting in a tourism-induced terms-of-trade effect. The presence of inbound tourism lends a support to positive tariffs even for a small open economy. The indirect tax reform of this kind can increase residents’ welfare and government revenue when the initial tariffs are relatively larger to the consumption taxes.     

外部经济:我国农产品贸易保护的新视角

外部经济是产业水平上的规模经济 ,是单个生产主体降低成本、提高效率的重要渠道。本文从农产品贸易的角度 ,论述了充分发挥外部经济有助于提高农产品的国际竞争力 ,出口外部经济效果显著的农产品会极大地改善本国的福利水平。基于此 ,笔者主张从培植外部经济的角度保护我国的农产品贸易 ,并提出了相关的政策建议 ,以期促进我国农产品贸易的发展。     

Endogenous tariffs and trade adjustment assistance

This paper examines whether trade adjustment assistance is an effective tool for blunting political opposition to trade liberalization. The traditional argument is that adjustment assistance bribes labor unions so that they will accept reduced tariff protection. In this way, a trade adjustment assistance program should help the government lower tariffs and increase social welfare. This paper introduces trade adjustment assistance into a political economy model of endogenous tariff formation. The model shows that adjustment assistance reduces policy makers’ incentives to press for trade liberalization and may slow down the pace of reform and lower social welfare under certain plausible conditions.     

Twin dollarization and exchange rate policy

This paper develops a small open economy general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities to study twin dollarization in East Asian economies, a phenomenon where firms borrow in US dollars and also set export prices in US dollars. In this model, we endogenize both the currency of liability denomination and the currency of export pricing. We show that a key factor that affects firms' dollarization decisions is exchange rate policy. Twin dollarization is an optimal strategy for all firms when exchange rate flexibility is limited, which implies that a fixed exchange rate regime may lead to an equilibrium with twin dollarization. Furthermore, we find that twin dollarization can reduce the welfare loss caused by the fixed exchange rate regime, as it helps to cushion the economy against domestic nominal risk.     

中国社会福利体系适度性研究——国际比较与实证分析

社会福利体系是影响经济可持续发展和社会安定的重要因素。政府在社会福利体系中起主导作用,但存在福利支出的适度性问题,福利过度或不足均不利于经济社会发展。本文对中国与OECD的社会福利体系做了比较,并选取美国等OECD七国和中国1980-2007年的数据作为样本开展实证分析。研究发现:(1)结合发达国家的经验,现阶段我国的社会福利总支出、养老保险支出和健康福利支出偏低;(2)但收入维持支出(即最低生活保障支出)却超前于经济发展水平和政府财力;(3)失业福利支出是否适度,不同分析方法得出了不同结论,有待进一步分析。     

我国贸易条件恶化与贫困化增长

本文首先测算了我国的年度贸易条件,并使用贸易条件调整的实际国内生产总值作为指标,研究了我国国际购买力的变动情况,进而得出我国国民财富的的总体状况。随后使用居民实际人均消费支出作为经济福利的指标,运用显示偏好弱公理分析了国民经济福利的变动情况,并通过与实际国内生产总值变化率的对比,判定了我国经济是否存在贫困化增长。研究结果表明,尽管贸易条件不断恶化,迄今为止我国经济并没有出现贫困化增长。     

发展福利彩票事业推动经济社会协调发展

随着近年来国民经济的快速增长,福利彩票以其独特的筹资功能及发展速度,对我国的社会福利事业作出了很大贡献,在安排弱势群体就业、调节社会和谐方面起着不可忽视的作用,并已成为我国社会主义市场经济的有益补充。福利彩票是以人为本的公益事业,它的发展受经济社会环境制约,是推动经济社会协调发展的原动力。     

Bhagwati and Ramaswami: Why it is a Classic

This paper expounds on a well‐known and widely influential paper ‘Domestic Distortions, Tariffs and the Theory of Optimum Subsidy’ (1963) by Bhagwati in collaboration with V. K. Ramaswami. The message of the paper, which set in trail a number of publications, was that in the case of a small open economy, distortions that steer the economy away from Pareto‐optimal outcomes should be dealt with at their source. The Bhagwati and Ramaswami paper established the case for free trade in the presence of domestic distortions, and proved wrong the received wisdom of the day that in the presence of distortions such as externalities, wage rigidities and distorted factor and product markets, a move from free trade to autarky might improve welfare. The article succinctly demonstrated that the correct policy intervention which avoided welfare losses was one which rectified a distortion at its source and is justly regarded as a classic. But in the profession of economics those who question received wisdom are regarded with scepticism at first and then with the riposte that it is all old wine served in new bottles. The Bhagwati‐Ramaswami breakthrough was met with the remark ‘it is all in Meade’. This paper takes issue with this judgement. The paper not only refutes the suggestion that the Bhagwati‐Ramaswami article has its origins in Meade but also provides a lucid and succinct exposition of Meade's analysis of divergences and shows how Bhagwati and Ramaswami's analysis is vastly different.     

服务业贸易自由化对开放国的福利影响

本文以福利经济学和李嘉图模型为理论基础,建立了一个探讨服务贸易自由化对一国经济福利影响的理论模型。通过实证分析,探讨了当东道国服务部门内的特定要素实现贸易自由化之后,外国特定要素不断流入东道国服务部门对东道国经济福利的影响,并对我国在服务业对外开放中应注意的问题提出了几点建议。