China＇s Exchange Rate and Financial Repression： The Conflicted Emergence of the RMB as an International Currency

Instability in the worm dollar standard, as most recently manifested in the US Federal Reserve＇s near-zero interest rate policy, has caused consternation in emerging markets with naturally higher interest rates. China has been provoked into speeding RMB ＂internationalization ＂; that is, opening up domestic financial markets to reduce its dependence on the US dollar for invoicing trade and making international payments. However, despite rapid percentage growth in offshore financial markets in RMB, the Chinese authorities are essentially trapped into maintaining exchange controls （reinforced by financial repression in domestic interest rates） to avoid an avalanche of foreign capital inflows that would threaten inflation and asset price bubbles by driving nominal interest rates on RMB assets down further. Because a floating （appreciating） exchange rate could attract even more hot money inflows, the People＇s Bank of China should focus on keeping the yuan/dollar rate stable so as to encourage naturally high wage increases to help balance China ＂s international competitiveness. However, further internationalization of the RMB, as with the proposed Shanghai pilot free trade zone, is best deferred until world interest rates rise to more normal levels.     

中国式货币国际化路线图

后危机时代，人民币国际化的任务变得日益清晰和紧迫，甚至可以称之为中国全球金融战略布局的核心内容。但这是一个长期的系统工程，汇率制度改革、资本账户自由化和国内的利率市场化、金融市场改革以及金融机构的现代化是一个有机的整体。     

人民币国际化的前景

通常认为国际货币的使用具有网络性和惯性的特点,因此新的货币取代原有的国际货币需要漫长的时间。这方面经常提到的例子就是,在经济规模方面,美国于1872年超过了英国;但美元取代英镑,则是到了20世纪40年代中期