The determinants of export subsidiary formation by US transnationals in developing countries: An inter-industry analysis

This paper examines the inter-industry variation in US transnationals' propensity to invest in export-orientated manufacturing subsidiaries in less developed countries. The results obtained from the empirical analysis indicate that a significant proportion of the variation can be explained by industry characteristics, such as factor-intensity, research and development expenditure, and marketing requirements. This study draws attention to a number of data limitations, and suggests that further progress in this area of investigation will depend on the assembly of a more refined data base.     

A data set on international trade in armaments for the major western industrialized and developing countries for 1980: Sources and methodological issues

Zusammenfassung Eine Datensammlung über den internationalen Waffenhandel der bedeutenden westlichen Industrie- und Entwicklungsl?nder im Jahre 1980: Quellen und methodische Fragen. — Dieser Aufsatz liefert eine Sammlung von Daten über den internationalen Waffenhandel nach Herkunfts- und Bestimmungsl?ndern (-regionen) für die bedeutenden westlichen Industrie- und Entwicklungsl?nder im Jahre 1980. Die Sammlung enth?lt Sch?tzungen über die Aufteilung des internationalen Waffenhandels nach den vier Sektoren: Kriegsschiffe, Milit?rflugzeuge, milit?rische Nachrichtenausrüstungen und milit?rische Güter. Sie ist st?rker disaggregiert als die Quellen, die zur Zeit verfügbar sind, und enth?lt, wo immer m?glich, Sch?tzungen des Umfanges und der Richtung von Waffenlieferungen.

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Résumé Quelques données sur le commerce international d’armes des principaux pays industriels de l’ouest et des pays en voie de développement en 1980: sources et méthodes. — L’intention de l’étude est de représenter des données sur le commerce international d’armes par pays/région d’origine et de destination parmi les principaux pays industriels de l’ouest et les pays en voie de développement en 1980. Les données contiennent des estimations de la répartition du commerce militaire en quatre secteurs: les navires de guerre, les avions de combat, l’équipement de communication militaire et les biens militaires. Les données sont plus désagrégées que celles qui sont disponibles jusqu’à présent et contiennent, s’il est possible, des estimations du volume et de la direction du commerce international d’armes.

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Resumen Datos sobre el comercio international de armas de los países occidentales industrializados y en desarrollo más importantes para 1980: fuentes y problemas metodológicos. — El objetivo de nuestro trabajo es presentar datos sobre el comercio internacional de armas según países/regiones de origen y destinatarios correspondientes a los países occidentales industrializados y en desarrollo más importantes para 1980. Estos datos incluyen estimaciones de cuatro sectores de comercio: buques miliares aviones militares, equipo de comunicaciones militares y bienes militares. Nuestros datos son más desagregados que los datos actualmente disponibles de otras fuentes e incluyen, siempre que haya sido posible, estimaciones de la magnitud y directión de los flujos comerciales de armas.

     

Structural determinants of government budget deficits in developing countries

The purpose of this study is to examine the possibility that certain structural factors make some developing countries more likely to incur government budget deficits than others. Empirical evidence is provided to support the hypotheses that developing countries are likely to have larger government budget deficits the lower their level of economic development, the greater the degree of government participation in the economy, and the less control exercised over government expenditures. Less convincing support is given for the hypothesis that revenue instability contributes to government budget deficits. An unexpected result of the study is that growth of government revenues is positively related to budget deficits, which leads the author to consider the possibility of a ‘Please effect’.     

The determinants of immigration-policy preferences in advanced economies: A cross-country study

This paper employs survey data to examine the determinants of immigration-policy preferences among ten advanced economies. Ordered probit specifications suggest that skill level is a robust determinant of immigration-policy preferences and that less-skilled workers are more likely to express a preference for policies that restrict immigration. The results also suggest that older individuals, members of trade unions, and those who classify their political ideology as conservative are more likely to favor limiting immigration while non-citizens are less likely to favor such policies. Individual country-level regression results vary, in particular with regard to the influence of trade union member-ship, which is a robust determinant of immigration-policy preferences for both measures of skill in only a subset of nations.     

Export incentives and export performance in developing countries: A comparative analysis

Zusammenfassung Exportf?rderung und Exporterfolge in Entwicklungs-l?ndern: Eine vergleichende Analyse. — Dieser Aufsatz enth?lt eine vergleichende Be-wertung der Exportf?rderungsmaβnahmen und ihrer Wirkungen auf die Exporte und die wirtschaftliche Leistung von elf wichtigen Entwicklungsl?ndern, die bereits eine industrielle Basis besitzen. Die Arbeit konzentriert sich weitgehend auf die Er-fahrungen der Periode von 1966 bis 1973, in der die Exportf?rderungsprogramme der einzelnen L?nder im groβen und ganzen voll angewendet wurden. Die betrach-teten L?nder sind Argentinien, Brasilien, Chile, Kolumbien, Mexiko, Israel, Ju-goslawien, Indien, Korea, Singapur und Taiwan. Sie sind entsprechend dem Zeit-punkt und dem Ausmaβ ihrer Exportf?rderungsanstrengungen in vier Gruppen eingeteilt worden. 1973 stellten diese L?nder 68 vH aller Exporte von Industrie-erzeugnissen aus Entwicklungsl?ndern. Bei der Durchführung der vergleichenden Analyse hat der Autor neben den Resultaten anderer Forscher die Ergebnisse von Studien benutzt, die im Auftrage der Weltbank und für das ECLA/IBRD-Seminar über Exportf?rderung erarbeitet wurden. Der Aufsatz beschreibt kurz die Exportf?rderungsanstrengungen der einzelnen L?nder, die sich daraus ergebenden ?nderungen ihrer F?rderungssysteme und die Lage im Jahre 1973. Die Wirkungen dieser Mavnahmen auf Export und Wirt-schaftswachstum werden abgesch?tzt und Empfehlungen gegeben für ein ?ideales? Anreizsystem zur Exportf?rderung und für die allgemeine Allokation der Ressourcen. In den Schluβfolgerungen wird auf die Zukunftsaussichten für die gewerblichen Exporte der Entwicklungsl?nder eingegangen.

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Résumé Les incitations exportatrices et la performance exportatrice dans les pays en voie de développement: une analyse comparative. — Ce papier présente une évaluation comparative des incitations exportatrices et leurs effets sur les exportations et la performance économique dans onze majeurs pays développants qui ont déjà établi une base industrielle. Principalement le papier concentre sur l’ex-périence de la période 1966–1973, quand les schèmes des incitations exportatrices des pays individuels étaient totalement en opération. Les pays considérés sont l’Argentine, le Brésil, le Chili, la Colombie, le Mexique, l’Israel, la Yougoslavie, l’Inde, la Corée, le Singapore et le Taiwan. Nous les classifions en quatre groupes, en dépendence du temps et de l’étendue de leurs efforts de promotion exportatrice. En 1973, ces pays occupaient un pourcentage de 68 des exportations des produits manufacturiers des pays développants. En faisant l’analyse comparative, l’auteur a utilisé les résultats des études préparées sous l’égide de la Banque Mondiale, les résultats des études préparées pour le séminaire du CEAL/BIRD sur la promotion exportatrice, aussi bien que les résultats des autres chercheurs. Le papier brèvement décrit les efforts de promotion exportatrice des pays indi-viduels, les changes résultants dans leurs systèmes d’incitations et la situation existante en 1973. Nous évaluons les effets de ces efforts sur les exportations et la croissance économique et nous faisons des recommandations pour un système ?idéal? des incitations pour les exportations et l’allocation des resources en général. Finale-ment, en tirant des conclusions du papier, nous considérons les prospects pour les exportations des produits manufacturiers par les pays développants.

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Resumen Incentivos de exportación y desempe?o de las exportaciones en países en desarrollo: un análisis comparativo. — Este artículo presenta una evalua-ción comparativa de los incentivos de exportación y sus efectos sobre las exporta-ciones y el desempe?o de la economía en once países en desarrollo de tama?o mayor que ya han establecido una base industrial. E1 artículo se concentra mayormente sobre la experiencia del período 1966–1973, cuando los esquemas de incentivos a la exportación de los países individuales estaban en su mayor parte en operación. Los países considerados son Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México, Israel, Yugoeslavia, India, Corea, Singapur y Taiwan. Ellos fueron clasificados en cuatro grupos, dependiendo de la regulación y del grado de sus esfuerzos de promoción de exportación. En el a?o 1973, estos países sumaban el 68% de las exportaciones de manufacturas de los países en desarrollo. Para realizar el análisis comparativo, el autor ha utilizado resultados de estudios preparados bajo el auspicio del Banco Mundial, resultados de estudios preparados para el seminario CEPAL/IBRD sobre promoción de exportaciones, como también los resultados de otros investigadores. El articulo describe brevemente los efuerzos de promoción de exportación de los países individuales, los cambios ocurridos en sus sistemas de incentivos y la situación existente en el a?o 1973. Se evalúan los efectos de estos esfuerzos sobre las exportaciones y el crecimiento económico y se formulan recomendaciones para un sistema ?ideal? de incentivos a las exportaciones y para la alocación de recursos en general. Finalmente, al formular las conclusiones de este articulo, se hacen con-sideraciones sobre las perspectivas futuras para las exportaciones de bienes manu-factuardos de países en desarrollo.

     

Did the underlying behaviour of inflation change in the 1980s? A study of 17 countries

Did the Underlying Behaviour of Inflation Change in the 1980s? A Study of 17 Countries. - Have the ERM member countries experienced a regime change to a lower degree of persistence for inflation in the 1980s compared to the 1970s? Some results give the impression that deflationary policies associated with ERM membership may have reduced the mean level of inflation, but did not reduce the persistence parameter over the last decade. However, other results show that the persistence parameter does decline for a majority of ERM members. Surprisingly, the results also show stronger evidence of a fall in inflation persistence for some non-ERM countries who adopted a strong anti-inflationary stance over the same period.     

Adjustment policies in developing countries: A reassessment

This paper analyses policy responses to external shocks by developing countries in the 1974–1976 and 1979–1981 periods. It is shown that outward-oriented economies relied largely on output-increasing policies of export promotion and import substitution to offset the balance-of-payments effects of external shocks in both periods and accepted a temporary decline in the rate of economic growth in order to limit their external indebtedness. In turn, inward-oriented economies failed to apply output-increasing policies of adjustment. They financed the balance-of-payments effects of external shocks by foreign borrowing in the 1974–1976 period, and had to take deflationary measures in 1979–1981 as their increased indebtedness limited the possibilities for further borrowing. The policies applied led to substantially higher rates of economic growth in outward-oriented than in inward-oriented economies, with the differences in growth rates offsetting the differences in the size of external shocks several times.     

Trade liberalization and the structure of protection in Turkey in the 1980s: A quantitative analysis

Zusammenfassung Handelsliberalisierung und die Struktur der Protektion in der Türkei der achtziger Jahre. Eine quantitative Analyse. — Die Autoren haben die Strukturver?nderungen in der Protektion der Türkei untersucht, die sich aus den aufeinanderfolgenden Zollsatz?nderungen von 1983 bis 1989 ergaben. Sie zeigen, da\ die Revisionen der Jahre 1988 und 1989 sowohl die H?he als auch die interindustrielle Streuung der Protektion verringert haben. Trotzdem f?rdert die Struktur der Protektion noch nicht die optimale Allokation der heimischen Ressourcen, wenn man die relativen Preise an der Grenze und damit das türkische Au\enhandelspotential in Betracht zieht. Au\erdem wurde gezeigt, da\ die türkischen Exportindustrien st?rker geschützt werden als die Industrien, die mit Importen konkurrieren.

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Resumen Liberalización comercial y estructura de la protección en Turquía en los a?os 80: un análisis cuantitativo. — En este trabajo se analizan los cambios en la estructura de la protección en Turquía debidos a revisiones sucesivas de los aranceles entre 1983 y 1989. Se demuestra que las revisiones de 1988 y de 1989 han disminuído tanto el nivel como la dispersión intersectorial de la protección. A pesar de ello, la estructura de la protección aún no conduce a una asignación óptima de los recursos nacionales dados los precios relativos en la frontera y, po lo tanto, el potencial del comercio exterior turco. Además, se demuestra que las industrias de exportación turcas exhiben mayor protección que las industrias que compiten con las importaciones.

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Résumé Libéralisation du commerce et la structure de la protection en Turquie dans les années 1980: une analyse quantitative. — Cette étude a analysé les changes dans la structure de la protection en Turquie à cause de plusieurs révisions successives des tarifs douaniers de 1983 jusqu’à 1989. Il est prouvé que les révisions de 1988 et 1989 ont baissé le niveau et la dispersion inter-industrielle de la protection. Malgré cela, la structure de la protection n’est pas encore convenable à une répartition optimale des ressources nationales si l’on considère les prix relatifs à la frontière et par cela le potentiel pour le commerce extérieur de la Turquie. En outre, on peut constater qu’on protège les industries d’exportation turques plus fortement que les secteurs industriels étant en concurrence avec les importations.

     

Intra-industry trade in the 1980s: A panel study

Intra-Industry Trade in the 1980s: A Panel Study. — This paper uses a panel data set to estimate the determinants of intra-industry trade in the 1980s. The data for trade covers 68 ISIC industries for the US, Japan, Germany, France, the UK and Italy from 1980 to 1987. UK data is used to measure industry characteristics. The results support, in particular, the positive effects of R&;D intensity and heterogeneity on intra-industry trade and the negative effects of scale and concentration. While fixed effects estimation indicates that industry characteristics explain most of the variation in intra-industry trade, differences in industry characteristics or in their effects vary significantly across countries.     

Labour market performance in developing countries: A survey

Malfunctioning of labour markets is often given as a principal explanation of the widespread poverty in developing countries. Open urban unemployment and disguised unemployment in agriculture are generally considered symptoms of the poor performance of the decentralized system of allocation of labour time and skills in these countries.This survey leads us to a much less pessimistic view of labour market performance per se, though obviously imperfections do exist. On the one hand, the shifts of the labour force in response to shifts in demand have been noteworthy and suggest, at an aggregate level, rather impressive performance. On the other, a closer look at open unemployment, disguised unemployment, and other possible types of labour market malfunctions suggests that they may be less serious misallocations than they appear, and that only in part can such misallocations be attributed to poor labour market functioning.Though the labour market is the immediate locus of the problem of low and stagnant incomes of workers at the bottom of the distribution, the evidence suggests no causality in this association. There is no reason to presume that poverty is a manifestation of labour market failure.     

Food aid to developing countries: A survey

Food aid currently constitutes nearly 15% of official development assistance and hence has considerable potential as a stimulant to growth in LDCs. This paper reviews the evidence on the impact of food aid on growth and its associated factors. While recognizing that the use of food aid is influenced by a constellation of interests in recipient and donor countries, it identifies a set of guiding principles for maximizing the effectiveness of food aid. These include the need for food (relative to other development needs), its level of substitutability with commercial imports, its incorporation in a poverty-oriented development plan, its guaranteed availability and its complementarity with financial aid. Current food aid programmes recognize the relevance of some of these principles - e.g. the criteria of necessity - but ignore others — notably the need to situate food aid in a comprehensive plan for improving patterns of income distribution in LDCs.     

Small industry in developing countries: A discussion of issues

This paper first examines the changing size distribution of industry in developing countries by region and over time, and, by reference to firm-level surveys, it discusses the underlying causes. The importance of markets generated by the growth of agriculture and rural incomes for the regional development of industry, both small- and large-scale, is noted. Second, it discusses the entrepreneurship issue, arguing that while small and largefirms alike are highly responsive to the growth of markets, the measured entrepreneurial response is neither as full nor as efficient as is desirable. The third and last part discusses small industry programmes and their relation to development policy. Financing and extension programmes are considered in detail, and there is a discussion of the risks involved. Some parallels with agricultural credit are discussed, in particular the default problem and the problems associated with concessionary finance. It is also argued that small industries - and, by implication, the programmes intended to support them - would stand to benefit from more efficient (and also more labour-demanding) policies towards agriculture and industry.     

Sectoral effects of reductions in NATO military expenditures in the major industrialized and developing countries

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the sectoral effects of (1) a 25 percent unilateral reduction of military expenditures in the individual NATO countries and (2) a 25 percent multilateral reduction of military expenditures in all of the NATO countries combined. Our principal findings suggest that the overall effects of the unilateral and multilateral reductions are not substantial and that the results of the two reductions are qualitatively similar. The sectoral results, which are also broadly similar in the two experiments, suggest that sectors such as basic metals and metal products, durable goods, and community, social, and personal services might be in need of transitional adjustment assistance for displaced workers in the event that the reductions in military expenditures would in fact be carried out.     

Demand for kerosene in developing countries: A case of Indonesia

This paper attempts to examine the determinants of kerosene consumption in Indonesia. Derived from annual data for the period 1957–1992, the statistical results suggest that in addition to the past conditions, the price of kerosene, price elasticity, and the per capita income are the main determinants of kerosene consumption in Indonesia. The estimated cross-elasticity value with respect to the price of elasticity implies that electricity is a weak substitute for kerosene.