Long-term unemployment, the invention of 'hysteresis' and the misdiagnosis of structural unemployment in the UK

This paper investigates the empirical basis for the belief thatunemployment makes people less ‘employable’, andthat the existence of a pool of long-term unemployed peopleis therefore in itself a barrier to full employment. Drawingon data for Great Britain from the 1940s to the present day,it shows that this idea has arisen through misinterpretationsof the statistical evidence. The resulting policies, besidesdiverting resources from the demand-side programmes appropriateto the true situation of structural unemployment, appear tohave created a problem of the kind they were intended to address,by encouraging unemployed people to move onto sickness benefits.     

我国兼并重组企业的税收问题与对策

20世纪80年代以来,世界各地的企业兼并重组呈迅速发展之势。在企业兼并重组过程中只有遵循经济促进原则、防范逃避税收原则,采用加强税收清欠、重新确立纳税人,制定更切实可行的税收优惠政策和税务处理规则等强有力的措施,才能克服兼并重组企业在税收政策方面存在的纳税人缺失、经营利润抵冲经营亏损和用特殊的优惠政策进行逃避税等问题。     

Jobs specialization versus unemployment: more on the productivity effect of unemployment benefits

We use the Marimon and Zilibotti (Econ J 109: 266–291, 1999) circle model and we endogenize the choice of the degree of specialization of jobs. We show that an increase in unemployment benefits not only reduces the mismatch of talents (as in Marimon and Zilibotti), but it also raises the degree of specialization of jobs. This reinforces the productivity enhancing effects of unemployment benefits.      

Censored quantile regressions and the length of unemployment periods in West Germany

In this paper, we estimate the effect of different macro and micro variables on the distribution of unemployment duration in West Germany using censored quantile regressions. We analyze unemployment periods of more than 91,000 observations from the years 1981 to 1997 drawn from the IAB employment subsample. The latter is an administrative data set that is representative with respect to the socially insured workforce. Surprisingly, we find that the educational degree and variables indicating the macroeconomic environment such as the unemployment rate have a weak effect only. On the other hand, variables reflecting the (un-)employment history of an individual such as the length of tenure, recall to the same employer in the past, recent unemployment, and the position in the population income distribution before unemployment have the strongest effects on unemployment duration. We conclude that work history variables are the ones most suitable in characterizing the unemployment duration of an individual. From a methodological point of view, it is interesting that some regression coefficients have a different sign depending on the quantiles of the unemployment duration distribution. This clearly is a violation of the classical proportional hazard assumption which is very common in unemployment duration analysis.     

Regional and gender differentials in the persistence of unemployment in Europe

The persistence of unemployment increased during the recent great recession in many European countries, although with diversified impacts. We therefore analyse such impacts in four European countries – Italy, Spain, France and the UK – which represent different institutional frameworks and may reflect the so-called continental European and Anglo-Saxon frameworks. We analyse the determinants of unemployment persistence using individual-level data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) panel for the period 2007–2013. These data enable us to take into account initial conditions and state dependence in addition to individual and household characteristics. We focus on gender and regional effects, which have a strong impact on the persistence in the state of unemployment. We find that gender gap is significant in Italy and the UK, implying that male workers show a higher probability of remaining unemployed. In Italy, such a pattern is due to the worsening of male workers’ conditions during the crisis, whereas in the UK, male workers show higher unemployment rates than women. Regional effects are significant in all countries analysed and underline a relevant structural factor that should be addressed on policy grounds in Europe. Such effects are greater in Spain and Italy.     

基于冗员的中国就业弹性估计

由于我国的企业中存在大量的冗员,研究就业弹性时必须考虑冗员的影响。基于这种考虑,本文建立了一个存在冗员的就业弹性模型来研究冗员对就业弹性的影响;并利用相关数据,重新估计了我国1980—2004年剔除冗员影响后的就业弹性;结果显示1995年后中国GDP对就业的拉动能力并没有下降。     

Energy taxation in Southern Europe: The case of Portugal

We investigate whether or not the imposition of a common EC energy-tax will penalize more the poorer Southern European economies and if this will harm convergence at the EC level. We start by surveying briefly the existing studies and empirical evidence. Then we exploit the results obtained when using the macroeconometric HERMES models to simulate the introduction of an energy-tax. Unfortunately, as we only have HERMES results for one Southern European economy, Portugal, our conclusions are limited. Finally, we investigate convergence in Europe and the effects of energy taxation on convergence. We conclude that energy taxation will harm growth all over the EC, penalizing more one of the less developed countries, Portugal, and having most probably adverse effects on convergence.This paper was prepared for presentation at the Conference Energy Tax in Europe organized jointly by the SEO-University of Amsterdam and the DG XII of the CEC and held in Amsterdam on 13th December 1991. I would like to thank the participants in the Conference and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Of course, the usual disclaimer applies.     

On the possibility of attaining environmental and trade objectives simultaneously

With the greening of political debate around the world, large nations — precluded from using trade instruments explicitly — have become aware of the fact that they can manipulate their domestic tax structure to attain environmental and trade objectives simultaneously. In this note we show how such nations can attain these two targets with one instrument. Specifically, we show how to construct dual purpose taxes. We then focus on the empirical determinants of these taxes.     

The fading 1990s in Japan: Driving forces behind the unemployment upsurge

This paper sheds new light on the causes of the unemployment upsurge in Japan during the “fading 1990s”, an unprecedented period of structural crisis. We estimate a labor market model and identify the main macroeconomic determinants of labor demand and labor supply decisions in the last decades. We then conduct dynamic simulations and assess the relative contribution of these determinants to the evolution of unemployment from 1990 to 2002. Beyond the leading role exerted by the decline in productivity growth, we find the active and expansionary measures undertaken by the government had an overall negative effect on the labor market.     

It's all the miners' fault: On the nonlinearity in U.S. unemployment rates

The U.S. unemployment rate is generally regarded as nonlinear. In this study, we show that if there had been no miners' general strike in October of 1949, and if the aggregate unemployment rate had been 0.3% lower during that month, the 1948–2002 U.S. unemployment rate would have been linear. Hence, just a single alteration of past events would have resulted in significantly different findings regarding the linearity in the U.S. unemployment rate. This finding illustrates a need for linearity tests to be developed that are robust against the effects of outliers.     

Global capital markets,direct taxation and the redistribution of income

Standard fiscal theory suggests that taxation should be heaviest on the least mobile factors of production – for both efficiency and revenue reasons. A shift in tax burdens from capital to labour as economies become globally integrated is thus justified. This theoretical tradition (founded by Ramsay and continued by Mirrlees and Lucas) assumes by construction that profit taxes reduce investment and growth; and while sensitive to inter-generational equity, sidesteps the issue of income distribution within generations. In contrast, starting from Keynes’ critique of these assumptions and building on modern endogenous growth models, it can be shown that profit taxation is not necessarily injurious to productive investment. In practice, moreover, the effect of globalisation has not been to reduce tax rates on capital, but rather to erode the tax base itself (i.e. ‘tax evasion’). Improved information exchange between tax authorities, which is now being driven by fiscal insolvency in developed countries, would allow tax incidence to be shifted so as to improve income distribution within OECD countries. Such cooperation could also permit the replacement of the current discretionary system of fiscal transfers from rich to poor countries (‘development aid’) by equitable sharing of global capital tax revenue.     

Patinkin,the Cowles Commission,and the theory of unemployment and aggregate supply

The paper provides an account of Don Patinkin's long-time search for an explanation of the notions of an aggregate demand constraint and unemployment under the assumption of a perfectly competitive goods market. It is argued that Patinkin's quest is reflected on the development of the concept of an aggregate supply function in the goods market. Patinkin's interpretation of aggregate supply and unemployment is compared to similar ideas put forward by Jacob Marschak, Trygve Haavelmo and Lawrence Klein, his former colleagues at the Cowles Commission in Chicago.     

Are institutional rigidities at the root of European unemployment?

The Netherlands experienced employment growth higher than thatin the US and achieved an unemployment rate of less than 3%,but Germany's unemployment rate remained at high levels. A widelyheld view regards a distorted incentive structure in welfarestates as the ‘root of the European unemployment problem’,but welfare state institutions in the Netherlands are more generousthan the German ones. Therefore, differences in the incentivestructures between the two economies cannot explain the differencesin employment success. The reasons for this seem instead tobe rooted in coordinated monetary, wage and fiscal policiesin the Netherlands while these are incompatible policies inGermany.     

An experimental investigation of wage taxation and unemployment in closed and open economies

We investigate experimentally the economic effects of wage taxation to finance unemployment benefits for a closed economy and an international economy. The main findings are the following. (i) There is clear evidence of a vicious circle in the dynamic interaction between the wage tax and unemployment. (ii) Employment is boosted by budget deficits but subsequent tax rate adjustments to balance the budget lead to employment levels substantially lower than theoretically predicted. (iii) A sales risk for producers due to price uncertainty on output markets appears to cause a downward pressure on factor employment. For labor the wage tax exacerbates this adverse effect.     

房地产开发企业土地增值税的税收筹划研究

税收筹划是房地产开发企业财务管理的重要内容。对于房地产开发企业来说,筹划空间最大、最直接的税务筹划就是对土地增值税的筹划。本文重点阐述利用增值税临界点进行税收筹划、借款利息的筹划实务、代收费用处理过程中的税收筹划、将出租变为投资进行税收筹划、合法利用土地增值税减免政策五项内容。     

Development policies in the presence of unemployment and non-traded intermediate goods

The role of non-traded intermediate goods has not been satisfactorily studied in the context of a developing economy with involuntary unemployment. In this paper we examine this phenomenon within the framework of a Harris-Todaro-type migration model. We show that the presence of the intermediate good creates a strong linkage between the rural and urban regions. Under certain reasonable assumptions on factor intensities, this linkage causes an increase in the price of the urban good to benefit the intermediate good as well, and an expansion in the urban output to drive an expansion in the production of the intermediate good. Finally, wage subsidies to urban firms increase the unemployment rate, despite the ameliorating effect of the inter-sectoral linkage.We would like to thank M. Ali Khan, Bela Balassa, Will Carrington, and the members of the J. H. U. Trade and Development and Summer Seminars for advice and comments. We would also like to thank two anonymous referees for pointing out several errors in an earlier draft. Any remaining errors are, of course, ours.     

Conceptualizing Un employment in a Period of Atypical Em ployment: A Critical Realist Perspective

An adequate conceptualization and measurement of unemployment should express the reality of employment. Designing theoretical concepts that adequately express reality requires appropriate methodological foundations. This paper uses critical realism to demonstrate that the deductive method encourages the construction of theoretical concepts in such a way as to reduce the multidimensional, qualitative reality of employment and unemployment to the quantitative, single dimension of variables, whereupon they cease to be adequate expressions of the reality they are designed to investigate. Part-time employment is used to exemplify atypical employment and to illustrate how the latter differs from typical employment in a number of dimensions, most of which are qualitative in nature.     

Cap and trade policies in the presence of monopoly and distortionary taxation

We extend an analytical general equilibrium model of environmental policy with pre-existing labor tax distortions to include pre-existing monopoly power as well. We show that the existence of monopoly power has two offsetting effects on welfare. First, the environmental policy reduces monopoly profits, and the negative effect on income increases labor supply in a way that partially offsets the pre-existing labor supply distortion. Second, environmental policy raises prices, so interaction with the pre-existing monopoly distortion further exacerbates the labor supply distortion. This second effect is larger, for reasonable parameter values, so the existence of monopoly reduces the welfare gain (or increases the loss) from environmental restrictions.