基于菲利普斯曲线分析我国通货膨胀与失业间的关系

文章借用菲利普斯曲线理论,构造通货膨胀和失业之间的线性回归模型,以我国2010年以来近10年的数据为样本分析失业与通货膨胀之间的关系,初步分析并尝试提出有关的政策建议.     

基于菲利普斯曲线的中国经济滞涨风险分析

传统的菲利普斯曲线认为政府治理通货膨胀需要忍受短期的失业率上升和产出下降,本文提出了一种新的菲利普斯曲线运行方式,并结合中国实际情况分析得出中国经济陷入滞涨状态的风险较小。     

菲利普斯曲线在中国的实证分析

菲利普斯曲线描述了物价水平与就业状况或者经济增长之间的关系。本文运用1978——2010年间的相关数据实证了反映"产出缺口与通货膨胀率"之间关系的菲利普斯曲线,对菲利普斯曲线的实证有利于我们清晰的了解宏观经济的运行,指明宏观经济政策的政策方向。     

菲利普斯曲线的理论探讨

现实经济中是否存在菲利普斯曲线,西方经济学各流派一直争论不休。到目前为止,比较普遍的看法是,就长期而言,不存在通胀与失业相互替换的菲利普斯曲线。短期而论,有两种观点：一是短期菲利普斯曲线存在;二是短期的菲利普斯曲线也是垂直的。目前,我国经济学界对这个问题的看法差异也很大。 鉴于我国经济学界在介绍西方经济学流派时,尤其是新古典宏观经济学派,多数侧重于结论而较少注重前提条件和假说基础。本文在综述各流派的观点的同时着重分析了新古典宏观经济学流派的前提假说。这样,在试图应用这一理论解释中国现实经济问题,…     

预期、混合菲利普斯曲线与中国通货膨胀动态特征

将货币因素与输入性因素（如汇率、国际石油价格等）引入新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线框架构建高阶滞后的混合菲利普斯曲线模型,并利用1995年第1季度至2013年第2季度的数据进行实证分析,结果显示：总需求变化对我国通货膨胀率的影响很小,而货币因素与输入性因素（如汇率以及国际大宗商品价格变化）成为影响我国通货膨胀率的重要因素;我国通货膨胀主要受到前瞻性预期的影响,而通胀惯性对通货膨胀水平的影响不大;相对而言,货币因素对我国通货膨胀具有最重要的影响。     

菲利普斯曲线为何失灵

50多年前,菲利普斯曲线折射了失业与通货膨胀之间的关系——通货膨胀率高时,失业率低;通货膨胀率低时,失业率高。经济学家对此进行了大量的理论解释,并成为宏观调控者进行抉择的重要依据。     

菲利普斯曲线在中国宏观经济中的适用性研究

根据传统菲利普斯曲线理论,通过研究1999年～2009年中国的宏观经济数据,从失业——工资关系、失业——通货膨胀关系、失业——国内生产总值关系这三个方面研究菲利普斯曲线在中国的适用性。研究表明,传统菲利普斯曲线仅在经济危机的特定时期适用于中国,并据此提出了解决国内经济危机的对策:通过财政和货币政策引导资金流向制造业;通过拉动内需来刺激投资、提高就业率;通过中央银行的定向增发票据回收流动性。     

菲利普斯曲线的变化对我国当前宏观经济政策的启示

当前宏观经济政策的制定不仅要积极促进经济增长以提供更多的就业岗位,而且同时又要既防止通货膨胀的发生和通货紧缩的归来。     

我国菲利普斯曲线的实证研究——基于1985—2011年相关数据

通胀和失业这两大宏观指标对经济增长的影响十分巨大,我国作为社会主义发展中大国,经济稳定、健康、快速发展无疑是经济决策者的理想目标。菲利普斯曲线是描述通胀与失业之间变动关系的强有力工具,那么菲利普斯曲线在我国是否存在呢?如果存在,又会以什么形式表现?本文通过收集分析相关数据,采用对失业率求对数的形式,模拟了其与通胀率之间的关系模型,得出了拟合良好的计量模型,简单描述了菲利普斯曲线在我国经济运行当中的表现形式。     

从沃尔克的反通货膨胀看降低通货膨胀的权衡取舍

通货膨胀将对国民经济带来巨大的风险,决策者有责任抑制通货膨胀,然而菲利普斯曲线揭示了降低通货膨胀是以增加短期失业为代价的。文章通过分析上世纪八十年代美联储主席保罗.沃尔克的反通货膨胀,对决策者降低通货膨胀所面临的权衡取舍以及如何使代价最小化进行探讨。     

Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve

Abstract.  The wage curve is the negative relationship that links wage levels to the unemployment rate. It fits accurately with modern non-competitive labour-market models, but goes against a Phillips-curve modelling, because the latter ties wage growth to the unemployment rate. In this article, we present a comprehensive review of these non-competitive models, highlighting recent contributions that try to eliminate the possible 'gap' that exists between the concepts of the wage curve, on the one hand, and the Phillips curve, on the other.     

Transfer payments and the Phillips Curve

Policy makers are today confronted with a worsening relationship between inflation and unemployment. Voluminous economic literature on the “Phillips Curve” has long attempted to show why inflation and unemployment are normally inversely correlated. More recent literature has sought to identify factors that could worsen the apparent tradeoff. This paper uses the labor sector of the System Dynamics National Model to analyze the potential impacts of increased transfer payments on inflation and unemployment. The results suggest that in the short run, higher transfer payments can prolong job search, thereby boosting unemployment, while simultaneously driving up wages due to reduced labor availability. But over the longer term, rising wages raise the attrractiveness of working, thereby compensating for higher transfer payments. Therefore, higher transfer payments are not permanently inflationary. Key long-run impacts of transfer payments may be to raise relative costs of labor, thereby lowering employment through factor substitution, and to discourage dropout from the labor force so as to maintain eligibility for payments.     

Econometric Evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve*

We give an appraisal of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPCM) as an empirical model of European inflation. The favourable evidence for NPCMs on euro‐area data reported in earlier studies is shown to depend on specific choices made about estimation methodology. The NPCM can be re‐interpreted as a highly restricted equilibrium correction model. We also report the outcome of tests based on variable addition and encompassing of existing models. The results show that economists should not accept the NPCM too readily.     

开放经济下中国新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线

本文采用广义矩方法估计开放经济下中国新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线，结合中国现实选择工具变量。结果表明，使用混合成本作为通货膨胀的驱动因素在统计和经济意义上具有显著性，影响我国通货膨胀主要是资本成本与进口中间品成本；厂商定价行为既有前瞻性又有后顾性，但前瞻性处于主导地位，且价格具有较强的灵活性。     

我国经济周期中菲利普斯曲线机制转移的阈值协整研究

本文应用非线性阈值协整对我国菲利普斯曲线及其在经济周期不同阶段的机制转移进行研究,结果表明我国菲利普斯曲线具有显著的非线性特征,并且非线性转换是由逻辑函数刻画的,转换的位置发生在产出缺口的滞后8个季度。这一结论说明:当产出缺口大于-0.113时,其随后两年的菲利普斯曲线为正斜率;当产出缺口小于-0.113时,其随后两年的菲利普斯曲线为负斜率。菲利普斯曲线随着产出缺口的变化而光滑转换的非线性特征使得我国货币政策的操作效果依赖于已有的经济状态而具有非对称性,进一步,未来两年我国货币政策的操作效果将致使经济增长率与物价指数同向变动。     

Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve*

This paper investigates the empirical success of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in explaining US inflation when observed measures of inflation expectations are used in conjunction with the output gap. The paper contributes to the literature by addressing the important problem of serial correlation in the stylized NKPC and developing an extended model to account for this serial correlation. Contrary to recent results indicating no role for the output gap, we find it to be a statistically significant driving variable for inflation, with this finding robust to whether the inflation expectations series used relates to individual consumers, professional forecasters or the US Fed.     

新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线的弱识别检验和稳健估计

对基于GMM大样本统计量的检验和估计,弱识别会带来点估计不一致和置信区间规模不正确的问题。本文讨论了弱识别问题产生的原因、影响、检验和相关弱识别稳健统计量。用Cragg-Donald F统计量对NKPC重新进行了检验,发现的确存在弱识别问题,本文进而对NKPC的参数进行了弱识别稳健的估计,并且用CLR统计量构造了相应规模正确的置信区间。实证表明中国的通货膨胀具有明显的向前和向后行为,而向前行为从数量上来说要大于向后行为的影响,但是向后行为在数量上来说也是不可忽视的;子样本的检验表明通涨的向后行为有增强的趋势。     

The US Wage Phillips Curve across Frequencies and over Time*

Although widely used in many areas of applied sciences, wavelet analysis has not fully entered the economic discipline yet. In this article we apply wavelet analysis to one of the most investigated relationships is in empirical macroeconomics: the relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. Using US postwar data we find a frequency‐dependent relationship of a sort that is consistent with Phillips’ original insights. It also turns out that this relationship is remarkably stable over the 1948–93 period, but not in the aftermath, as a consequence of a process of adaption of the wage formation process to a low inflation environment.