An agent based model concept for assessing modal share in inter-regional freight transport markets

This paper introduces an Agent based modelling approach to model inter-urban freight transport between two or more trading regions. The use of the model is to ascertain the modal share of competing transport modes (road and intermodal) while taking complex transport service supply–demand dynamics into account. It is structured by modules describing company generation, supplier choice, modal competition and International road freight transport market dynamics. The behaviour of individual actors is simulated using normative agent behaviour and market knowledge. Using the micro-simulation approach, shippers and carriers (primarily road hauliers and a maritime based intermodal operator) interact through simulated contracts resulting in the generation of tours. The service performance of the tours is fed back into the model for decision making during contract deliberations. Preliminary application of model to Mediterranean case study show that market share gains of around 25–30% are obtained with policy interventions of financial subsidies to intermodal services and more frequent shipping services in the intermodal transport respectively.     

Urban freight demand forecasting: A mixed quantity/delivery/vehicle-based model

The research germinates from the statement that the cities have to solve the impacts due to freight transport in order to improve their sustainability implementing sets of city logistics measures. But city logistics measures involve several actors and choice dimensions. It is therefore important to have methods and models able to assess the effectiveness of the measures to be implemented. The current models were mainly developed to simulate some aspects of urban freight transport, and are not able to forecast many impacts of implementing traffic and transportation measures at an urban scale.This paper presents a modelling approach that tries to point out the relations existing among city logistics measures, actors and choice dimensions. It comprises three model sub-systems to estimate the quantity O–D matrices by transport service type (e.g. retailer on own account or wholesaler on own account or by carrier), the delivery O–D matrices by delivery time period, and the vehicle O–D matrices according to delivery tour departure time and vehicle type.This modelling system is a multi-stage model and considers a discrete choice approach for each decisional level. It was first tested using some data collected in the inner area of Rome, including traffic counts and interviews with retailers and truck-drivers. The model estimations were also compared with the experimental ones, and quite satisfactory results were obtained.     

Location of logistics companies: a stated preference study to disentangle the impact of accessibility

Due to the globalization and the fragmentation of industrial production processes, the logistics sector, organizing the linkages between different production plants and the market, is growing fast. This results in an increasing demand for suitable new business locations. Previous research has indicated that accessibility is a key factor in the location decision making process. Though the literature on this subject is extensive, little research has been done to quantify the impact of the different dimensions of accessibility on the location decision process of logistics companies. This paper aims to fill this void in the literature by means of a revealed preference study (using a Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis) and a stated preference study (using a designed discrete choice experiment) in Flanders (Belgium). The results of the revealed preference study served as input to the design of the choice situations in the stated preference study. In the stated preference study, the respondents were confronted with a series of choice situations described by means of accessibility variables as well as land rent information. An analysis of the resulting data by means of discrete choice modeling revealed that land rent is the most important factor in the location choice of logistics companies in Flanders. Access to a port is the second most important factor, followed by access to a motorway, the location in a business park and an inland navigation terminal, which are all about equally important. Access to a rail terminal plays no significant role in the location choice of logistics companies in Flanders.     

长江流域海铁联运模式下港口集疏运物流网络研究

为加快构建长江流域综合立体交通走廊,提出以海铁联运模式为主的港口集疏运物流网络。根据复杂网络的中心性理论选取度中心度、中间中心度、接近中心度和特征向量中心度构建城市物流连通性评价指标,结合收敛相关算法对城市进行分类,筛选出长江流域海铁联运物流网络的枢纽城市;建立以物流成本最小化为目标,考虑枢纽城市铁路运输规模效益的整数规划模型,以模拟退火算法求解该模型,构建以南京、武汉、重庆、株洲、鹰潭为枢纽的海铁联运物流网络。研究发现,铁路运输的单位成本随运输规模和运输距离的提升而降低;与各城市不经枢纽的单一运输模式相比,货物由海铁联运物流网络运输可获得更大的运输规模效益,使其产生的运输成本更低,可节省约20.5%的物流成本。     

Random and fuzzy utility models for road route choice

The objective of this work is the specification, calibration and validation of a route choice model distinguishing the phases of set perception and route choice among the alternatives belonging to the chosen set. Route generation is performed with a selective multi-criteria approach; route choice is performed using random and fuzzy utility models. As regards the fuzzy utility models, a new specification of a fuzzy model is introduced. Random and fuzzy utility models are compared and applied on a test road network and were specified and calibrated for national road freight transport on a real Italy-wide network.     

Green supply chain management,reverse logistics and nuclear power generation

Built on the concepts of green supply chain management (G-SCM), this paper presents a multi-objective optimization programming approach to address the issue of nuclear power generation. In this study, a linear multi-objective optimization model is formulated to optimize the operations of both the nuclear power generation and the corresponding induced-waste reverse logistics. Factors such as the operational risks induced in both the power generation and reverse logistics processes are considered in the model formulation. Numerical results indicate that using the proposed approach, the induced environmental impact including the corresponding costs and risks can be improved up to 37.8%.     

Growth and relational strategies used by the European logistics service providers: Rationale and outcomes

This article reports on research into the ways European providers of logistics and transport services develop and grow. The strategic behaviour adopted by the leading 20 third-party European logistics service providers (3PLs) between 1998 and 2004 is examined, particularly their approach to mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and logistics alliances. It shows that while growth among 3PLs is aimed at providing more cohesive European logistics coverage, national culture constrains their efforts. More consolidation within the 3PL industry is expected. A few market leaders offer a wide range and scope of services, while most other firms have a diversified portfolio of interests.     

Accommodating spatial correlation across choice alternatives in discrete choice models: an application to modeling residential location choice behavior

This paper presents a modeling methodology capable of accounting for spatial correlation across choice alternatives in discrete choice modeling applications. Many location choice (e.g., residential location, workplace location, destination location) modeling contexts involve choice sets where alternatives are spatially correlated with one another due to unobserved factors. In the presence of such spatial correlation, traditional discrete choice modeling methods that are often based on the assumption of independence among choice alternatives are not appropriate. In this paper, a Generalized Spatially Correlated Logit (GSCL) model that allows one to represent the degree of spatial correlation as a function of a multi-dimensional vector of attributes characterizing each pair of location choice alternatives is formulated and presented. The formulation of the GSCL model allows one to accommodate alternative correlation mechanisms rather than pre-imposing restrictive correlation assumptions on the location choice alternatives. The model is applied to the analysis of residential location choice behavior using a sample of households drawn from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey (BATS) data set. Model estimation results obtained from the GSCL are compared against those obtained using the standard multinomial logit (MNL) model and the spatially correlated logit (SCL) model where only correlations across neighboring (or adjacent) alternatives are accommodated. Model findings suggest that there is significant spatial correlation across alternatives that do not share a common boundary, and that the GSCL offers the ability to more accurately capture spatial location choice behavior.     

Exploring the choice of battery electric vehicles in city logistics: A conjoint-based choice analysis

Adoption of electric vehicles by transport companies remains limited although major European cities should reach CO₂-free city logistics by 2030. This paper explores therefore the vehicle choice behaviour of transport companies through a conjoint-based choice analysis.The results showed that the benefits of battery electric vehicles are less valued than their disadvantages. However, a majority of respondents agrees that authorities should encourage the use of battery electric vehicles. Based on the preferences of transporters, we conclude that the most important measures are to develop a larger charging infrastructure and implement financial incentives through subsidies or tax exemption.     

A weighted logit freight mode-choice model

The paper describes the estimation of a weighted discrete choice model applicable for analysing choice of mode and crossing for freight in the Oresund region. The study finds that, by applying a weighted logit approach, it is possible to establish a suitable decoupling of agents and shipments. Moreover, by assessing preferences on the basis of a representative baseline OD matrix it is possible to better reflect the dependence between mode substitution effects and geography/infrastructure. The paper presents demand elasticities with respect to monetary cost and travel time as well as value-of-time estimates for five modes and thirteen commodity groups.     

Mapping causalities of airline dynamics in long-haul air transport markets

The introduction of low-cost air transport services to short-haul routes has significantly shaped the structure of this market segment. Recent research investigates and discusses the transferability of the low-cost carrier business model to long-haul routes and identifies respective challenges such as lower cost advantages over the competing full-service network business model. Our paper complements the existing research with a review of airline dynamics in long-haul air transport markets and the subsequent development of a causal loop diagram of the transatlantic air transport market using systems thinking. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of specific characteristics regarding airline operations in the transatlantic air transport market to investigate the market potential of long-haul low-cost carriers competing with full-service network carriers in this market. We implement these characteristics in a causal loop diagram which comprises the most important elements of and causalities within the long-haul air transport market that affect the development of these elements. These include the generation of transatlantic air transport demand, passenger choice, and airline ticket price and fleet development. The causal loop diagram serves as a framework for qualitative investigation of the market potential of long-haul low-cost services. The paper proves systems thinking to be a feasible approach to map causalities based on knowledge from scientific literature.     

铁路货运站物流信息平台建设的研究

根据铁路货运站的实际情况,论述在铁路货运站建设物流信息平台的必要性。通过对铁路货运站的物流信息平台建设的系统分析和规划,提出基本功能要求和物流模式的分析,并对信息平台的代码、数据结构、数据库和数据处理过程进行设计,从而进一步提高铁路货运站的工作效益。     

A conceptual framework for agent-based modelling of logistics services

This paper presents an agent-based microsimulation framework that represents the diversity of roles and functions of actors in the freight system, how they interact through markets and how interactions between actors are established in markets through contracts. The framework provides sensitivity to technology trends, business trends, and policy scenarios. Logistics costs, outsourcing of logistics services to third party logistics firms, growth or retraction of various industry sectors, and the impact of new supply channels are explicitly represented. Data sources available in Toronto, Canada and new data collection efforts required for model estimation are described.     

Measures for evaluating supply chain performance in transport logistics

This study aims to investigate the construct of, and develop a measurement instrument for, supply chain performance (SCP) in transport logistics. Based on the supply chain operations reference model and various established measures, a measurement model and a measurement instrument for SCP in transport logistics are developed. A 26-item SCP measurement instrument was constructed, reflecting service effectiveness for shippers, operations efficiency for transport logistics service providers, and service effectiveness for consignees. The empirical findings suggest that the measurement instrument is reliable and valid for evaluating SCP in transport logistics.     

A strategic approach to improve sustainability in transportation service procurement

This paper focuses on the procurement of full truck-load transportation service with the view to ensuring sustainability in transport logistics. The carrier assignment problem (CAP) involved in truck load contract auction is studied using a complete enumeration method and heuristic approach. Performance of both methods is compared in terms of solution quality and computational time based on the results of sample problems considered. Also, the impact of combinatorial bidding on reducing empty haul in real world case is analyzed and environmental sustainability is achieved through reduction in carbon foot print.     

交通运输融入现代物流的 E推模式

结合交通运输与物流的不同特点和关系，提出交通运输融入现代物流的E推模式，即政府政策和区域经济推动物流服务理念提升、物流技术水平提高、物流文化意识增强等。在此模式下，交通运输融入现代物流必须要有政府的政策支持，建立现代物流服务理念，引入现代信息技术和培养物流人才等。     

Factors in the sea ports-of-entry and road ports-of-entry cross-border logistics route choice

The increasing demand for foreign trade in inland areas has led to an increasingly prominent problem of competition between land ports-of-entry (POEs) and sea POEs, and it has also made the comparative study of land POEs and sea POEs cross-border logistics necessary. However, the data used in the existing literature are usually based on surveys or small samples, resulting in inaccurate research results, and most studies generally ignore the spatial heterogeneity of shippers who uses cross-border logistics service and individual preference differences. Taking the international trade between China, Myanmar and Vietnam as an example, and considering the geographical spatial characteristics of various factors, we analyze how geographical factors affect the cross-border logistics routes choice. By using the conditional logit model, the influence of geographical factors on the land POEs and sea POEs cross-border logistics routes choice is compared. The results show that there are significant differences in the characteristics and their influencing factors, which are reflected in the scale of freight, transportation distance, duration, transportation expense, infrastructure quality, geographical location and characteristics of the shippers and POEs. The distance equivalent tool is introduced to calculate the competition balance point of the sea/road POE. The impact mechanism of cross-border logistics choice of land POEs and sea POEs cross-border logistics is explored. Finally, according to the spatial differences of POEs, policy suggestions are proposed.     

Warehouse location choice: A case study in Los Angeles,CA

The purpose of this research is to understand how and why warehouses have changed location over time from central urban areas to the urban periphery: spatial decentralization. Over the last decade, the logistics industry has been restructured to transport large volumes of goods more quickly and reliably. Concurrently, the warehousing industry experienced changes in facility size and location: large warehouses have been built on the urban outskirts. This spatial shift is attributed to inventory and transport cost trade-offs: the gains from lower land prices and scale operation outweigh the increase in transport costs as warehouses decentralized from central urban areas. As a case study, I examine location choices of 5364 warehousing facilities in Los Angeles, CA. I hypothesize that (a) the location choice varies by facility size and (b) the location choice logic has changed over time. Results suggest significant differences in the effect of location choice factors over facility size and over time. For warehouses built before 1980, the most influential factors are local market, labor, and seaport/intermodal terminal proximity. In contrast, for warehouses built after 2000, lower land price and airport/intermodal terminal proximity have the greatest effects.     

铁路实施多元化经营战略的探索与实践

加快转变铁路发展方式、转换铁路经营机制对进一步解放和发展铁路运输生产力意义重大。太原铁路局在深挖运输组织、运输能力、运输市场潜力,做大做强铁路客货运输核心业务的同时,做优铁路专业服务业、现代物流业、站车商业和广告业、制造业、工程施工业、房地产开发和物业服务业,延伸运输服务链条,积极推进铁路多元化经营战略实施。     

Demand for cargo airships: An analysis of mode choice decision making in the freight transport industry

Despite their potential, cargo airships currently remain a theoretical concept. This research aims to examine the factors determining the demand for their services from the perspective of transport logistics professionals. An online freight mode choice experiment is conducted, supplemented with follow-up semi-structured interviews. Across freight types the sensitivity of the modes (road, rail, sea and airship) to the attributes (price, time, reliability and frequency) varied substantially. Willingness to pay for the cargo airship mode for travel time saved is estimated to be $23/tonne/hour. It is conservatively estimated that the potential market share of cargo airships in the Australian domestic freight market varies across airship models with LMH-1 having the lowest market share of 8% while ARH50 has the largest potential market share at 25%.