Viewpoint: Sustainability: Malthus revisited?

Abstract.  The sustainability debate concerns whether the world will experience stable or improving living standards for the foreseeable future, or whether the current trajectory will overtax the natural environment, leading to a 'crash' in living standards. This paper selectively reviews relevant research, focusing on both ecological concerns and technological progress, and asks whether sustainability would be problematic without rapid population growth. I suggest that continued demographic transition to lower fertility is the primary requirement for achieving sustainable development. This is, effectively, a modern translation of Malthus (1798) . The paper also discusses the role of the Malthusian cycle in human evolution.     

装备制造业全球价值链融入程度与技术进步效应研究

构建融入全球价值链（GVC）与技术进步效应的分析框架并提出研究假设,利用1999-2015年中国装备制造业7个细分行业面板数据,测算装备制造业融入GVC的程度指数和全要素生产率。结果显示,融入GVC程度指数整体呈现“W”型特征,2015年相比1999年呈上升趋势,各细分行业技术进步较为明显。实证结果表明：融入GVC对全要素生产率提升具有促进作用,但同时由于阻碍效应的存在,导致融入GVC与全要素生产率两者间呈现U型曲线关系。这是对融入GVC能够促进技术进步相关观点的重新认识。另外,产权制度因素、高素质科研人员规模能够显著促进技术进步;研发投入强度、出口密集度、条件建设强度在一定程度上阻碍了技术进步,但不显著。研究结论对于中国装备制造业通过融入GVC提高全要素生产率、实现技术进步具有重要政策启示。     

1985—2010年间中国制造业要素 配置扭曲变动的解析 ——资本结构变动与技术进步的影响分析

本文对1985—2010年间中国制造业部门的要素配置扭曲系数的变动进行了解析。要素配置扭曲系数的变动一方面是由于不同行业间投资结构失衡所引致，但是另一方面则反映了不同行业间不同类型技术进步差异对要素报酬率变动的影响效应。笔者发现：（1）近十多年来，部分重化工业的资本快速扩张引起行业间投资结构失衡，并加大了行业间的要素配置扭曲程度；（2）相对于1985—2000年间，技术进步因素在2001—2010年间对要素配置扭曲系数的变动的影响效应越来越大。本文建议政府在制定产业政策时，限制一般生产性的资本投资鼓励政策，而更多转向鼓励创新和研发投资的政策，鼓励体现有技术进步因素的资本要素与劳动要素之间的相互替代。     

MeasuringIncome and Measuring Sustainability

We examine what interpretation can be given to inclusive income , understood to be consumption plus the value of the net increase in all relevant capital stocks. We introduce the concept of instantaneously constant value income , defined as the maximum amount the economy can consume at a moment of time and keep the expected present value of utility of current and future generations constant. We argue that this income concept captures some of the concerns underlying sustainability. Our main result is that inclusive income equals instantaneously constant value income . We show that this result holds in a very general setting and, in particular, carries over to models incorporating technological progress when such progress can be captured by augmented stocks of knowledge. An important implication of our main result is that it provides a very simple method for deriving inclusive income, which does not involve any linearization of the Hamiltonian.     

Anticipation effects of technological progress on capital accumulation: a vintage capital approach

Due to embodied technological progress new generations of capital goods are more productive. Therefore, in order to study the effects of technological progress, a model must be analyzed in which different generations of capital goods can be distinguished. We determine in what way the firm adjusts current investments to predictions of technological progress. In the presence of market power we show that a negative anticipation effect occurs, i.e. current investments in recent generations of capital goods decline when faster technological progress will take place in the future, because then it becomes more attractive to wait for new generations of capital goods. In case that only investments in new machines are possible, actually a whole wave of anticipation phases arises.     

Adjusting Green NNP to Measure Sustainability

Weitzman provides a foundation for NNP as the stationary equivalent of a wealth-maximizing path when there is a constant interest rate and no exogenous technological progress. Here, the implications of Weitzman's foundation are explored in a case encountered in resource models, i.e., the case of non-constant interest rates. In a setting that allows for exogenous technological progress, an expression for NNP is obtained that adjusts Green NNP for anticipated capital gains and interest rate effects to produce a measure that indicates sustainability. This result is important when measuring the relative sustainability of resource rich and resource poor countries.     

Market dynamics, dynamic resource management and environmental policy in the context of (strong) sustainability

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between market dynamics, dynamic resource management and environmental policy. In contrast to static market entry games, this paper draws attention to the effects of market dynamics on resource dynamics et vice versa, because (1) we show that feedback processes are necessary for obtaining a better understanding of what drives the dynamics between the evolution of common-pool resources and the number of harvesters and more importantly, (2) this analysis provides an environment discussing sustainability in an appropriate inasmuch dynamic way. The paper makes the following points: based on a co-evolutionary model, which incorporates resource and market dynamics simultaneously, it is shown that an increasing number of harvesters does not necessarily imply a lower stock of the common-pool resource in the long run. Further it is shown that a tax-scheme establish an output-sharing solution for coping with the overuse of common-pool resources. This results is in contrast to the prevailing literature, which mainly discusses tax-schemes and out-sharing as substitutes rather than as complements for solving the commons-problem. This conclusion holds even if we additionally assume harvesting-cost-reducing technological progress. On the other side if policy interventions ceased, strong resource sustainability in the sense of resource conservation is not possible, given technological progress is a relevant issue.     

The influence analysis on public expenditure to the technique efficiency of China

In this paper, we use SFA to estimate the time-variant stochastic frontier model of 31 cities in China. The results tell us that raising the proportion of public expenditure in GDP can lower the technological efficiency, but raising some parts of public expenditure in GDP can promote the technological efficiency. Its realistic meaning is that it is excellent to turn the public expenditure structure to promote the technological efficiency. We computed the technological efficiency of 31 provinces/cities and the results show that the gap between the eastern region and western region is growing much. Finally, we decompose total factor productivity (TFP) and get the following result: from three regions, the biggest influence factor on technological efficiency is the scales economy. Technological progress and allocation efficiency have a smaller influence. From our results, we suggest that technological progress and allocation efficiency from public expenditure and income be raised to influence the TFP rate of change, and have a more efficient public expenditure. __________ Translated from Journal of Finance and Economics (财经研究), 2005, (12) (in Chinese)     

Learning by Holding and Liquidity

A number of assets do not trade publicly but are sold to a restricted group of investors who subsequently receive private information from the issuers. Thus, the holders of such privately placed assets learn more quickly about their assets than other agents. This paper studies the pricing implications of this "learning by holding". In an economy in which investors are price takers and risk-neutral, and absent any insider trading or other transaction costs, we show that risky assets command an excess expected return over safe assets in the presence of learning by holding. This is reminiscent of the "credit spread puzzle"—the large spread between BBB-rated and AAA-rated corporate bonds that is not explained by historical defaults, risk aversion, or trading frictions. The intuition is that the seller of a risky bond needs to offer a "coordination premium" that helps potential buyers overcome their fear of future illiquidity. Absent this premium, this fear could become self-justified in the presence of learning by holding because a future lemons problem deters current market participation, and this in turn vindicates the fear of a future lemons problem.     

OPTIMAL GROWTH, GENUINE SAVINGS AND LONG-RUN DYNAMICS

Green accounting theories have shown that negative genuine savings at some point in time imply unsustainability. Consequently, recent studies advocate the use of the genuine savings measure for empirical testing: a negative index implies that sustainability be rejected. However, this criterion cannot ascertain sustainability, because positive current genuine savings do not rule out genuine dissaving in the future. This paper derives a one‐to‐one relationship between the sign of long‐run genuine savings and the limiting condition for sustained utility in the capital‐resource growth model, assuming technical progress and resource renewability. This result suggests to extend the genuine saving method to include a test of the limiting condition: if this condition is empirically rejected, positive current genuine savings are delivering a false message.     

中国城市绿色全要素生产率测度研究

基于考虑"能源消耗"与"环境污染"的超效率SBM模型,采用全局参比的Globe-Malmquist-Luenberger(GML)指数测算中国283个城市的绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)。研究发现:(1)城市绿色全要素生产率、技术效率和技术进步分别以年均3.5%、1.2%和2.3%的速度增长,GTFP的增长动力主要来源于技术进步,而作为"绿色软技术"的技术效率贡献相对不足;(2)三大区域绿色全要素生产率平均增幅东部>中部>西部,技术进步差异是GTFP区域差距形成的主要原因,不同时期区域发展战略和环境政策在城市绿色转型中的作用存在异质性;(3)超大及特大城市、行政等级较高的城市绿色全要素生产率增长具有领先优势,且研究期内不同层级城市GTFP差距呈现先缩小后扩大的趋势。     

福利水平的可持续性评价研究

在设计福利水平的评价指标和可持续发展评价指标时,一些评价福利水平的指标忽视了可持续性,而评价可持续发展的指标则忽略了当前的福利水平。长期以来,人们一方面试图用一个单一的指标来综合反映可持续发展和福利水平两个方面的内容;另一方面,也在探讨不将两方面的内容完全综合为一个指标的情况下,如何结合应用两个方面的测度指标。本文首先针对第一方面的问题以ISEW为例进行述评;其次,述评第二方面的不同建议;再次,提出将真实储蓄率作为可持续指标,并以此来评判福利水平的可持续性。     

PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY AND MARKETS

Photovoltaics—"solar power"—retains a strong fascination as a future sustainable energy source for the planet some 120 years after its discovery, 80 years after Einstein explained its physics, 30 years after the first laboratory device was produced, and 25 years after its first commercial application. This paper examines the market for photovoltaics at prices above those required for competitive bulk grid-connected wholesale electricity, surveys current and possible future manufacturing technologies, describes the processes of technology introduction and manufacturing cost reduction, and discusses policy implications.     

我国财政科技投入现状分析与调整策略

世纪之交,科技创新已经成为国际竞争的主导因素,科技竞争力将成为决定国家前途和命运的重要因素.科技创新的出现也必须有科技投入的后台作保障.本文在比较工业化国家不同发展阶段科技投入水平的基础上,结合我国工业化进程发展所处的阶段,对我国的科技投入现状进行比较分析,认为:当前应加大政府对科技投入的支持力度,提高基础研究的投入比例,依据国情,实行有所为、有所不为策略,加大官、产、学、研结合力度,加速科技成果转化,抢占新世纪科技制高点.     

Accounting for Sustainable Development over the Long‐Run: Lessons from Germany

We construct long‐run sustainability indicators based on changes in Comprehensive Wealth – which we refer to as Genuine Savings (GS) – for Germany over the period 1850–2000. We find that German sustainability indicators are positive for the most part, although they are negative during and after the two World Wars and also the Great Depression. We also test the relationship between these wealth changes and a number of measures of well‐being over the long‐run: changes in consumption as well as changes in average height and infant mortality rates. We find a positive relationship between GS and our well‐being indicators over different time horizons, however, the relationship breaks down during WWII. We also test if the GS/Comprehensive Wealth framework is able to cope with massive disinvestment at the end of the Second World War due to war‐related destructions and dismantlement. We find that negative rates of GS were by and large avoided due to the accumulation of technology and growth‐friendly institutions. We demonstrate the importance of broader measures of capital, including measures of technological progress, and its role in the process of economic development; and the limits of conventional measures of investment to understand why future German consumption did not collapse.     

CO2 abatement policy with learning-by-doing in renewable energy

This paper analyzes the implications of CO₂ abatement when there is endogenous technological change in renewable energy. A multi-sector numerical general equilibrium model for Denmark is proposed to reflect two basic assumptions about technological progress in renewable energy. First, there is learning-by-doing and unit costs of production are a decreasing function of cumulated output. Second, technological progress only benefits new vintages of capital. The learning-by-doing process is calibrated to match current projections for technological progress in wind-based electricity. The implications are a marked reduction in the total and marginal cost of abatement and a decline in the optimal level of near-term abatement.     

The value of conserving genetic resources for R&D: A survey

The value of genetic resources for R&D is placed within the framework of discussions concerning sustainability. We assess the extent to which society is able to invest now in order to prepare for future risks and uncertainties in the arrival of biological problems. Each of the approaches to valuation is discussed within this setting. Weitzman's approach to measurement is seen to be one that considers society's current objectives and information to be little relevant to future risks and uncertainties. Sedjo, Simpson and Reids' search-theoretic perspective is seen to reduce future uncertainties to highly tractable and known problems. Goeschl and Swanson's bio-technological approach also constrains the problem to be one without any real uncertainty, and focuses on the need to maintain genetic resources in order to maintain control over the problem. Kassar and Lasserre place uncertainty at the core of the problem, and assess the extent to which additional value is added by this feature. In sum all of the approaches to the problem evince a pessimism regarding the capacity of future technological change automatically to resolve these problems. Given this, the value of genetic resources depends on beliefs concerning the ability of current objectives to anticipate future risks and uncertainties.     

Regional sustainability: How useful are current tools of sustainability assessment at the regional scale?

Sustainability assessment methods are primarily aimed at global, national or state scales. However, modelling sustainability at finer spatial scales, such as the region, is essential for understanding and achieving sustainability. Regions are emerging as an essential focus for sustainability researchers, natural resource managers and strategic planners working to develop and implement sustainability goals. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of current sustainability assessment methods - ecological footprint, wellbeing assessment, ecosystem health assessment, quality of life and natural resource availability - at the regional scale. Each of these assessment methods are tested using South East Queensland (SEQ) as a case study. It was selected because of its ecological and demographic diversity, its combination of coastal and land management issues, and its urban metropolitan and rural farm and non-farm communities. The applicability of each of these methods to regional assessment was examined using an evaluation criteria matrix, which describes the attributes of an effective method and the characteristics that make these methods useful for regional management and building community capacity to progress sustainability. We found that the methods tested failed to effectively measure progress toward sustainability at the regional scale, demonstrating the need for a new method for assessing regional sustainability.     

Capital mobility and sustainability: Evidence from U.S. current account data

We propose an empirical framework that allows us to jointly test for the sustainability of the current account deficit and evaluate the capital mobility thesis by examining the time series properties of the current account. We argue that this approach is more useful than the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) cross-section regression because of its firm basis on the long run inter-temporal budget constraint and of its richer dynamics that allow for a more useful method to evaluate the capital mobility thesis. Based on a century and half of U.S. current account data, we find evidence of current account sustainability and major breaks in the current account dynamics such that adjustment in the current account switches off allowing the current account to accumulate at a non-stationary rate. We assess whether periods in which the current account accumulates in a non-stationary way correspond to historical periods believed to have witnessed high degree of capital mobility.First version received: June 2003/ Final version received: January 2004     

生态旅游的兴起和研究进展

本文探讨了生态旅游产生的历史背景,起源和发展,并解释了其涵义,提出了完整的定义,最后论述了生态旅游的五大特点,生态性,高品味性,二重性,可持续性和自然超味性,最后分析了生态旅游的研究进展。