中国产业结构与经济增长研究：1990-2012

全要素生产率是分析经济增长源泉的重要工具,文章通过使用与前人不同的方法计算出1990-2012年中国三次产业全要素生产率,发现中国经济历年来主要靠第二产业全要素生产率拉动,但是2009年以后第三产业全要素生产率开始超越第二产业,成为经济增长的主要拉动因素。此外,文章计算出三次产业资本边际产出比重,从中可以看出我国应当调整投资在产业间的分配以提高资本效率。最后,通过产业结构与三次产业就业关系的研究发现,第三产业就业人数增加能够促进第三产业产值占国内生产总值的比重。     

An Overview of the Proximate Determinants of Economic Growth in Indonesia Since 1960*

In this paper, we address two questions. First, what determined the growth of GDP per worker in Indonesia from 1960 to 2014? We examine Indonesia’s economic performance, using a growth accounting framework. We show that economic growth during the Soeharto era after 1975 was mainly determined by an increase in capital accumulation. Negative growth in total factor productivity (TFP) during the Asian financial crisis was more noticeable in Indonesia than in comparable ASEAN countries. In Indonesia, the contribution of TFP growth turned persistently positive after 1999. Second, what are the key determinants of the GDP per worker differences between Indonesia and the United States? Using data from the recently updated Penn World Table database and employing a levels accounting method, we find that the gap in physical capital deepening between the two countries is of declining importance in explaining the gap in labour productivity between Indonesia and the United States. We then compare our findings with data from the World Bank’s Changing Wealth of Nations 2018.     

海南的资本投入与全要素生产率

本文从投资效率出发估计海南资本存量数据,并运用索洛余值法、隐含变量法和潜在产出法讨论了1978～2006年海南的全要素生产率变动。分析表明:海南全要素生产率增长与海南宏观经济波动趋势较一致,海南的经济增长主要依靠全要素生产率的贡献。     

Indonesia's Ascent on the Technology Ladder: Capital Stock and Total Factor Productivity in Indonesian Manufacturing, 1975–95

This paper presents new capital stock estimates for mium and large-scale manufacturing in Indonesia using the Perpetual Inventory Method. Capital stock grew gradually during 1975–88, at an annual rate of 7.6%, then boomed during 1989–95 at 13.6% per annum. Growth accounting shows that 60% of the rapid growth of manufacturing output during the period 1975–95 was due to capital input growth, 18% to labour input growth and the remaining 22% to total factor productivity (TFP) growth. There is no evidence of a shift of factor inputs towards more efficient industries. TFP growth averaged 3% annually in 1975–95. Performance varied greatly across industries, but the policy changes that have taken effect since 1986 have definitely been beneficial for all industries. Put in an international perspective, however, Indonesia's TFP levels show no signs of catch-up with the world frontier.     

我国各要素对经济增长贡献率的实证研究

文章采用1978～2007年的数据,用索洛余值法分析各要素对经济增长的影响情况,将我国的经济增长分解为资本投入的贡献,劳动力投入的贡献,全要素生产率的贡献。实证表明:我国总产出中资本投入的贡献最大,年均达到57%;全要素生产率的贡献较大,对总产出的贡献达到28%;劳动力投入的贡献最小,只有15%左右。     

国际贸易的技术溢出效应及其对我国TFP的影响

文章在研究进出口贸易产生的技术溢出效应的基础上,采用中国1985-2007年数据,通过改进的LP模型,将国际贸易的技术溢出效应对我国TFP的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,不仅通过进口贸易渠道溢出的国外R＆D投入对我国的TFP增长起到促进作用,而且出口贸易通过专业水平、规模经济、产业结构调整等渠道对我国TFP增长也产生了重要影响。     

AN ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper analyses long‐term trends in the development of South Africa's economic infrastructure and discusses their relationship with the country's long‐term economic growth. A database covering national accounts data, railways, roads, ports, air travel, phone lines and electricity was established for this purpose, and may facilitate further quantitative research. PSS (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 1996, 2001) F‐tests are used to identify directions of association between economic infrastructure and economic growth. These indicate long‐run forcing relationships from public‐sector economic infrastructure investment and fixed capital stock to gross domestic product (GDP), from roads to GDP, and from GDP to a range of other types of infrastructure. There is also evidence of potential simultaneity between specific types of infrastructure and GDP. The evidence suggests three main findings. Firstly, the relationship between economic infrastructure and economic growth appears to run in both directions. Inadequate investment in infrastructure could create bottlenecks, and opportunities for promoting economic growth could be missed. Secondly, South Africa's stock of economic infrastructure has developed in phases. Policymakers should focus on choosing or encouraging the right type of infrastructure at the right time. Thirdly, the need for investment in economic infrastructure never goes away. The maintenance and expansion of infrastructure are important dimensions of supporting economic activity in a growing economy, provided that individual projects are chosen on the basis of appropriate cost‐benefit analyses.     

New,disaggregated, British railway total factor productivity growth estimates, 1875 to 19121

Total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Britain's railways in the last part of the nineteenth century and the first decade of the twentieth has been widely studied, not least because it can throw light on the question of the causes of overall slowdown in industrial growth. This article is concerned with the detailed mechanics of measuring TFP growth and with the use of results to compare growth across different companies. The article disaggregates TFP growth between different activities performed by railway companies (provision of locomotive power, operation of carriages and wagons, provision of permanent way, and working of traffic), and it also develops detailed measures of capital stock and capital costs using disaggregate data on assets employed in each activity. These improvements to existing methodology reduce, rather than increase, existing estimates of TFP growth. Consequently the results confirm the previously observed conclusion that productivity growth was slow. They show that while there were significant increases in goods train operating efficiency in the first decade of the twentieth century, the additional resources that were employed meant that these increases were slow to translate into overall TFP growth.     

Demographic change,human capital,and economic growth in Korea

We construct a measure of human capital using micro datasets on labor composition of age, gender, education, and wage rate and analyze its role in economic growth for the Korean economy. Over the past three decades, human capital has grown steadily at about 1% per year, contrasting to a continuously declining trend of total work-hours. This growth has been driven by the rise of better-educated baby-boom cohorts. A growth accounting exercise shows that human capital contributes significantly to economic growth; it accounted for 0.5% points of annual GDP growth over the period. Human capital is projected to remain a major growth factor over the next two decades as the increase in educational attainment continues. Increased employment rate of elderly or female workers reduces the aggregate human capital growth while increasing the available labor. Polices to improve human capital of female or elderly workers help to increase aggregate human capital growth.     

人力资本对城市化贡献的实证研究——以江西省为例

目前国内外对人力资本的研究大多以人力资本存量为基础,着重探讨了人力资本与经济增长、外部性及就业等方面的相关效应,而对城市化与人力资本关系的研究鲜有涉及。由此,文章以经济发展为中间变量,建立了人力资本与城市化的经验模型,并以江西省为例进行了实证检验,研究表明人力资本促进了江西省城市化进程。     

Health,education, and economic growth in China: Empirical findings and implications

This empirical analysis examines the augmented Mankiw, Romer and Weil's model which considers both health and education in human capital in the framework of Chinese economy. We consider the relationship between per capita real GDP growth and the physical capital, human capital, and health investment in the production function. Panel data models are used in the estimation based on the provincial data from 1978–2005. The empirical evidence shows that both health and education have positive significant effects on economic growth. The results also show that the interaction of health and education stock will not reduce their impact on growth and there is perhaps a trade-off between two forms of human capital investment.     

An Empirical Analysis of Provincial Productivity in China (1979–2001)

This study estimates and analyzes provincial productivity growth in China for the period 1979–2001. The Malmquist Index approach allows us to decompose productivity growth into two components, technological progress and efficiency change. Considerable productivity growth was found for most of the data period, but it was accomplished mainly through technological progress rather than efficiency improvement. Although China's capital stock has accumulated at record speed in recent years, our findings show that TFP growth slowed down significantly during 1995–2001. The study thus raises serious questions about whether China's recent growth pattern is consistent with its comparative advantages, and whether its reliance on capital accumulation can be sustained in the long run.     

Total factor productivity in South African agriculture, 1947‐91

Indices of total factor productivity (TFP) measure aggregate output per unit of aggregate input, providing a guide to the efficiency of agricultural production. This article outlines the relationship between production functions and TFP indices. Then, an index is constructed for South African agriculture for the period 1947‐91. The index shows that TFP grew at an average rate of 1,3 per cent per annum. However, TFP growth has increased since the reforms of the early 1980s. Since capital has been more realistically priced relative to labour, greater productivity growth has gone together with increasing employment, which must have improved social welfare.     

ICT and Productivity Growth in the United Kingdom

This paper develops new estimates of investment in and outputof information and communication technology (ICT). These newestimates imply that GDP growth has been significantly understated,particularly since 1994. A growth-accounting approach is employedto measure the contribution of ICT to the growth of both aggregateoutput and aggregate input. On both counts, the contributionof ICT has been rising over time. From 1989 to 1998, ICT outputcontributed a fifth of overall GDP growth. Since 1989, 55 percent of capital deepening (the growth of capital per hour worked)has been contributed by ICT capital; since 1994 this proportionhas risen to 90 per cent. ICT capital deepening accounts for25 per cent of the growth of labour productivity over 1989–98and 48 per cent over 1994–8. But even when output growthis adjusted for the new ICT estimates, both labour productivityand TFP growth are still found to slow down after 1994.     

Technical progress and the growth of the Japanese economy - past and future

This paper considers technical progress and the growth of theJapanese economy. Many economists are pessimistic about theeconomy's future because of the rapid ageing of the population.However, capital and total factor productivity (TFP) are muchmore important than labour in determining economic growth. Duringthe high-growth era of the 1950s and 1960s, TFP contributedalmost 4 percentage points to the 10 per cent annual growthrate. Since then, however, TFP growth has fallen significantly.During the 1970s, Japan's machinery industries became worldleaders and made possible the export-led growth of the period1975 85. I argue that the stagnation of the 1990s was causedby demand deficiency, and that demand creation by technicalprogress is the key to economic growth.     

Human capital estimates in China: New panel data 1985–2010

We introduce new provincial level panel data on human capital in China from 1985 to 2010. Our estimation of human capital is based on the Jorgenson–Fraumeni lifetime income approach modified to fit the Chinese data, thereby allowing a more comprehensive measurement of human capital than traditional partial measurements, such as education. Our provincial data are adjusted for purchasing power parity via a living-cost index as well as for real values so that all values are comparable across the provinces and time. We discuss various characteristics of the data, including total human capital, per capita human capital, and labor force human capital, which in turn are disaggregated based on gender and urban or rural location. Our human capital estimates are compared with the provincial physical capital estimates and provincial GDP. As an illustration, we also use the data to estimate a production function and to decompose China's economic growth from physical capital, human capital, and TFP. Our results, compared with those that use traditional specifications, reassure us as to the reliability of our new China human capital data.     

Total factor productivity growth for 12 Asian economies: The past and the future

This study examines the importance of TFP growth in the long-term past and future economic growth of 12 Asian economies. We analyze the pattern of past growth based on a calculation of TFP growth, investigate the TFP dynamics by estimations of a TFP growth model, decompose the factors affecting TFP growth, and offer long-term projections of TFP growth. The main findings are as follows. First, results suggest that the growth accounting paradigm has shifted in the recent decade toward a productivity-based growth paradigm. Second, the catch-up effect is the major source of TFP growth in past decades, and the human capital contribution to TFP growth is gradually rising in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan in the most recent decade but is stagnated or weakened for other Asian economies. Third, the results project strong TFP growth for the two subperiods of 2010–2020 and 2020–2030 and thus suggest that the productivity-based growth will continue in the future long-term growth of the Asian economies.     

日本经济结构转型与产业升级路径研究

通过对战后日本经济景气循环的全景考察,发现中国经济现状和日本20世纪70年代具有很大的相似性。1970前后,日本进入大众消费的阶段,经济增长的所有要素贡献率都呈下降趋势,日本政府通过调整产业政策,促进制造业升级换代,实现了经济结构的转型。对比日本的发展历程,中国应加快政府职能转换和产业转型的步伐,扩大国内消费,避免经济的过度虚拟化。     

我国东、中、西部地区经济增长差异的因素分析:1952～2005年

本文采用Solow的增长核算方法,对1952～2005年间我国东、中、西部地区经济增长差异的因素进行测算和分析。分析结果表明:①我国地区经济增长主要来自于资本积累,全要素生产率增长对经济增长的贡献不大,劳动投入的贡献非常小;②资本投入增长速度差异是地区增长差异的主要决定因素,促进区域协调发展,需要国家给予中、西部地区更多投资倾斜政策,同时中西部地区自身应注重基础设施,人才环境等投资环境的培育和完善以吸引外来投资;③地区增长差异在一定程度上表现为生产率增长差异,加快西部地区技术进步和效率改善速度,提高其全要素生产率是缩小我国地区增长差异、继续推进西部大开发战略的有效途径之一。     

国家高新区人才资本与经济增长——基于面板数据的实证研究

为了研究国家高新区人才资本与其经济增长的相关关系,选用了典型国家高新区2000-2013年期间的面板数据,对纳入人才资本要素的生产函数模型进行多元回归分析与检验,回归结果表明人才资本在国家高新区的经济增长中存在显著的促进作用;在此基础上进一步测算了各高新区的人才贡献率,得出结论：人才贡献率的大小不仅取决于高新区的人才资本存量,与该高新区的人才资本增长率也有一定的关系。