长寿指数延迟年金的设计与价值测度

长寿指数延迟年金(LIDA)在转移了年金提供者的部分系统性长寿风险的同时,以较低的价格为年金购买者提供了大部分长寿风险覆盖。文章从两个维度衡量LIDA的价值:首先,长寿风险转移维度,利用LIDA的定价量化系统性风险的转移程度;其次,长寿风险覆盖维度,利用离散时间下动态最优化数值算法计算LIDA系列产品的等价财富,进而得到产品的长寿风险覆盖率。实证结果表明,长寿指数年金可以以较低价格提供80%以上的长寿风险覆盖,而LIDA为老年人提供了一系列更低价格、不同长寿风险覆盖程度的产品。老年人购买LIDA可以在保证长寿风险覆盖的同时,满足自身的流动性需求和遗产需求。     

论保险公司长寿风险管理的困境与对策

随着医疗技术的进步、公共卫生设施的改善以及个人生活方式的转变,我国人口的预期寿命有了大幅度的增长。人口预期寿命的延长使提供个人年金保险业务的保险公司面临很大的长寿风险,如果不对长寿风险进行有效的控制和对冲,将严重影响保险公司的偿付能力,因此,如何有效管控长寿风险是保险公司发展个人年金业务面临的一个巨大的挑战。文章在分析保险公司面临的长寿风险以及保险公司在长寿风险管理方面存在的困境和问题的基础上,对保险公司的长寿风险管理提出了一些具体措施。     

浅谈企业年金功能及基金风险防范

随着养老体制的改革与完善，一些企业实行了年金制。年金制不仅成为职工退休养老保险金的重要补充部分，而且给企业带来诸多影响；企业年金基金运营的市场化，使企业在获得收益的同时，也伴随着风险。确保年金基金安全性和收益性，做好风险防范是个值得探讨的课题。本文从企业年金功能入手．阐述了基金的风险与防范。     

消费习惯、退休养老计划与最优消费投资

该文基于消费习惯理论,构建一个包含随机死亡概率和不确定劳动收入的连续时间生命周期模型,探讨退休养老计划参与者的消费与投资问题,将参与者的生命周期分为退休前和退休后两个时期,退休前参与DC型养老金计划,退休后领取固定支付的年金,保障退休后的生活。应用动态规划方法得到了CRRA效用函数下退休前(后)最优消费与投资决策的显式解。最后,通过比较静态分析和数值模拟分析演示了最优消费与投资策略随参数变化的动态行为,并给出了背后的经济学解释。     

随机寿命下财富短缺风险度量

本文在随机寿命和随机金融资产收益率的假定下,利用必要财富增长率来度量退休人员的财富短缺风险,即在给定的个人财富过程和给定的置信度(95%)下,在给定的时间段内(死亡时刻之前),使财富值保持为正的最低财富增长率。本文利用随机死亡率模型和退休人员财富变化过程推导退休人员的财富短缺概率,并利用数值算法求解财富短缺概率低于5%时的财富必要收益率。最后,本文从消费的角度划分了三类老年群体:基准群体、遗赠群体和独居群体,比较这三类群体的财富短缺风险特征;之后进行参数敏感性分析,认为消费物价指数和国债收益波动率的增大均加大了老年人的财富短缺风险。本文对必要财富收益率的度量为将来设计多样化养老金融产品的收益率提供了参考标尺。     

论企业年金的风险管理策略

企业年金作为现代养老社会保障体系的重要支柱，旨在为本企业职工提供一定程度退休收入保障。相比起由国家强制实施并有财政支持的基本养老保险，企业年金的运作的风险程度明显高于前者。在企业年金的管理中如何有效的规避和控制风险已经成为一个非常突出的问题。企业年金面临的比较重要的     

企业年金制度的财政属性和金融属性

一、企业年金制度的财政属性 企业年金制度的财政属性主要体现在养老保障性、补充性、税惠性和福利性四个方面。 1.企业年金制度的养老保障性。企业年金制度的基本社会经济功能是对抗老龄化危机,确保老年人经济安全。由于长寿风险、疾病风险,收入降低风险和通赁膨胀风险4大难题,老年人经济安全具有不确定性。建立企业年金制度,充分     

缴费确定型企业年金领取阶段的最佳策略

缴费确定型企业年金在领取阶段如何实现投资最优直接影响到计划参加者的福利。DC计划计划参与者在退休时面临的三种典型选择——购买普通生存年金(PLA方案)、购买允许股票投资的生存年金(ELA方案)到强制转换年龄时再购买普通生存年金、投资股票的收入减少方式(ELID方案)到强制转换年龄时再购买普通生存年金。本文通过分别假设针对股市风险较小国家和股市风险较大国家的两组数据,给出在特定的股市上,计划参与者结合自身的情况,可能做出的最佳选择,从而对于企业年金尚处于起步阶段的中国在年金制度设计方面提供了参考。     

主观预期寿命对家庭资产配置的影响——基于CHARLS数据的经验分析

本文在基于生命周期的资产配置模型中引入主观预期寿命,对主观预期寿命、遗赠动机对中国家庭资产配置的影响进行分析。运用中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,本文的实证研究结果表明：中老年居民的主观预期寿命是理性的,该指标在研究家庭金融决策问题上具有重要的参考意义;主观预期寿命的增长显著提升了家庭持有政府债券和风险资产的可能性,并增加了家庭在相应资产上的配置。遗赠动机会弱化主观预期寿命增长对家庭持有相应资产的可能性和配置比例的正向影响。通过使用多种估计方法和代理变量,笔者发现上述结论是稳健的。     

长寿风险管理方式研究

上个世纪七十年代以来,全球经济快速增长与医疗条件不断改善,死亡率急剧下降,人口老龄化的问题凸显。人口老龄化的推进是长寿风险不断累积的过程,政府、寿险公司的养老金及企业年金面临着巨大的长寿风险,如何有效的管理长寿风险就不可避免的成为重要问题之一。本文主要探讨了长寿风险的识别,对比分析了不同的长寿风险管理方法,并通过研究长寿风险管理工具的设计,最后提出长寿风险转移和对冲的有效途径。     

Retirement planning in the light of changing demographics

With increasing longevity and decreasing fertility rates, governments and policy makers are increasingly engaged in the question of long term retirement planning. In many cases this has included emphasising the need for individuals to take more responsibility for their own retirement planning through tax incentives, compulsion and changes to the age at which state retirement benefits become available. In the case of Australia, as is considered here, long term retirement planning has been focused around the development of a compulsory defined contribution (DC) superannuation system. Here we investigate the interaction between population ageing and the sustainability of the superannuation system by modelling a general superannuation scheme to compare the adequacy of retirement funds under a number of alternative scenarios. The model incorporates stochastic longevity forecasts and provides insight into the sufficiency of compulsory retirement saving both now and future. We find that the current pension scheme is more robust to longevity improvements for mid-class individuals however significant gaps arise for low-income individuals as longevity improves. Without addressing these issues, government expenditure is expected to increase substantially.     

Intergenerational redistribution and risk sharing with changing longevity

Trend increases in longevity are a global phenomenon challenging the fiscal sustainability of current welfare arrangements. Policy proposals abound and often build on implicit assertions concerning intergenerational equity. This paper offers a simple but manageable OLG model with endogenous retirement and cohort-specific longevity to address intergenerational redistribution and risk sharing. While it is well known that a utilitarian planner strives for consumption smoothing, it is shown that healthy ageing calls for work smoothing in the sense that retirement ages increase with longevity. Hence, cohorts with higher longevity should contribute to their larger consumption needs via later retirement, although it is shown that the planner still front-loads some financing (pre-saving). Stochastic longevity raises the issue of intergenerational risk sharing, which implies that cohorts turning out to have a high longevity are compensated at the expense of cohorts turning out to have a relatively short longevity.     

Do retirement planning strategies alter the effect of time preference on retirement wealth?

An individual’s willingness to accumulate retirement wealth is influenced by their preference for intertemporal consumption. People with a strong preference for current consumption (high personal discount rate) may choose to save less and face the risk of decreased retirement preparedness. A negative relation between a high personal discount rate and retirement wealth may be reduced when individuals engage in some form of retirement planning. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we provide evidence that respondents with a high personal discount rate accumulated 37% less retirement wealth, on average, between 2004 and 2008, when compared with respondents with a low personal discount rate. However, when retirement planning strategies were included in the model, there was no statistical difference in retirement wealth between people with high and low personal discount rates. The retirement planning strategies included calculating a retirement income need, hiring a financial planner for retirement or engaging in both of these activities.     

Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement in general equilibrium

We analytically assess the effects of changes in longevity on the interest rate, the consumption-savings behavior, and the optimal retirement decision within a dynamic general equilibrium setting. We derive a simple sufficient condition for which the optimal retirement age always increases with life expectancy. Numerical assessment reveals that for realistic parameter values that reflect the situation in industrialized countries, the optimal retirement age indeed increases with life expectancy and the sufficient condition tends to be fulfilled. Together with the fact that the actual retirement age did not increase in industrialized countries over the last decades, while there have been large improvements in longevity, this leads us to conclude that strong monetary and institutional incentives for early retirement exist and these counteract the effects of increasing life expectancy. Our policy conclusion is that the retirement age should be partially linked to life expectancy and that incentives for early retirement should be removed.     

The effects of longevity and distortions on education and retirement

This article studies the impact of longevity and taxation on life-cycle decisions and long run income. Individuals allocate optimally their total lifetime between education, working and retirement. They also decide at each moment how much to save or consume out of their income, and, after entering the labor market, how to divide their time between labor and leisure. The model incorporates experience–earnings profiles and return to education function that follows evidence from the labor literature. In this setup increases in longevity raises the investment in education—time in school—and retirement. The model is calibrated to the US and is able to reproduce observed schooling trends of the last century. It also reproduces the increase in retirement, as the evidence shows. Simulations show that a country equal to the US but with 20% smaller longevity will be 25% poorer, mostly because of the impact of life expectancy on human capital formation and retirement. In this economy labor taxes have a strong impact on the per capita income, as it decreases labor effort, time at school and retirement age, in addition to the general equilibrium impact over physical capital.     

Note on Longevity and Aggregate Savings

In a recent paper in this journal, Bloom, Canning and Graham (2003) model the effect of changes in longevity on individual savings. They proceed to present empirical findings about the relation between longevity and aggregate savings. There is a missing link between their empirics and theory: the changes in the populations age density distribution due to increased longevity. This note provides such an aggregation analysis within a simple model with uncertain survival, endogenous life‐cycle consumption and retirement age. It is shown that, with continuous annuitization, an increase in expected longevity raises aggregate steady‐state savings. The magnitude of this effect depends on the economy's age‐specific distribution and on the elasticity of optimum retirement to changes in longevity.     

Time inconsistency and retirement planning

We quantify the welfare gains from better retirement planning using a model in which retirement planning is time inconsistent. A modest increase in a household’s planning horizon by just a few years generates large aggregate and individual welfare gains.     

Fiscal sustainability and demographics – Should we save or work more?

Approaching demographic shifts are raising concerns about fiscal sustainability in most OECD countries. A widespread view based on the tax-smoothing idea is that a prior consolidation of public finances is required to cope with the predicted trend deterioration in the primary budget balance. However, the smoothing argument cannot unconditionally be applied to the demographic problem. It is important to distinguish between increases in the dependency ratio driven by changes in fertility and longevity. For the former the smoothing argument may be appropriate, but not for the latter. In the case of longevity, a trade-off between consolidation and increasing retirement ages becomes relevant, and there are strong arguments why the latter should be pursued by e.g. linking statutory retirement ages to longevity. Both positive aspects in assessing the order of magnitude of sustainability problems and normative aspects of formulating policy strategies are addressed.     

Increasing longevity and social security reforms—A legislative procedure approach

Increasing longevity causes an upward trend in the dependency ratio in many countries. This raises concerns about the financial sustainability of social security schemes, and reform proposals and initiatives abound. It is shown that a fundamental policy choice inevitably arises since a given social security system cannot be maintained by simply indexing pension ages to longevity. The political reform process is analysed using the so-called legislative procedure. When longevity increases, the retirement age is raised more than proportionally to the increase in longevity, but the young also make larger transfers to the old.     

The effect of social security,health, demography and technology on retirement

This article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of the elderly and investigates the factors that may account for the increase in retirement in the second half of the last century. We develop a lifecycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy – which became much more generous – and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement.