中国区域信息网络基础设施投资效应的实证研究

采用新增长理论模型的投资效应分解方法,将信息网络基础投入的经济增长效应分解为直接投资效应和间接溢出效应。利用2003—2012年中国省际面板数据,运用面板工具变量法测算了各地区信息网络基础设施投入对经济增长的直接投资效应和间接溢出效应。研究结果表明:中国各地区的信息网络基础设施投入具有显著而积极的直接投资效应和间接溢出效应,但间接溢出效应具有一定的滞后性;总体而言,中国地区信息网络基础设施投入对经济增长具有显著的促进作用,且对TFP的提高具有积极作用;信息网络基础设施投入的经济增长效应存在地区差异。     

人工智能对绿色经济增长的作用机制与赋能效果——产业结构优化视角

人工智能作为新一轮科技革命和产业变革的重要抓手,深刻影响着中国绿色发展的路径选择偏向。结合非连续性技术创新理论与中国现实情景,从产业结构优化视角构建人工智能技术赋能绿色增长的逻辑框架,并利用2010—2020年中国省级面板数据检验人工智能的绿色增长效应。结果表明,人工智能通过技术红利效应直接推动绿色经济增长,引入地区高校平均科技产出和《中国制造2025》政策冲击作为工具变量进行内生性修正后,人工智能的绿色增长效应仍显著存在。机制识别揭示,人工智能通过产业结构高级化和合理化驱动绿色经济增长,二者在人工智能绿色增长效应中的相对贡献分别为20.33%和8.35%。异质性分析发现,中国转型经济背景下,人工智能的结构红利在要素市场扭曲程度更低、创新人力资本水平更高、制度环境更完善的地区表现得更为明显,从而可以更充分释放其对绿色增长的赋能效果。拓展性分析发现,人工智能对绿色经济增长具有显著正向空间溢出效应,本地人工智能发展对空间关联地区的绿色发展绩效存在辐射带动作用。聚焦产业结构升级与绿色发展双重视角,可为塑造以人工智能为核心的技术竞争优势、实现经济高质量发展提供理论支撑和经验证据。     

制度变迁对我国经济增长的作用——基于结构方程模型的研究

现代经济学理论将制度因素纳入经济增长的框架,认为经济增长的根本原因是制度的变迁。本文运用结构方程模型,测量不可直接观测的制度变迁隐变量,实证分析我国新世纪以来的经济制度变革对经济增长的作用,发现物质资本投入的增长在绝大部分程度上归因于制度的改进,制度变迁对我国的经济增长具有显著贡献。     

制度变革对云南省经济增长的贡献评价

本文通过将制度变革量化，运用SPSS软件中的主要成份分析功能和C－D函数模型，对1978年以来的制度变革在云南省经济增长中的作用进行了实证分析，发现经济体制变革对云南省的经济增长具有显著贡献，是促进云南经济增长的最关键变量。     

二重经济开放与中国经济增长质量的演进

本文采用主成分分析法测算了经济增长质量指数,发现改革开放以来中国经济增长质量在总体上呈现出波动中上升的趋势,并进一步从理论上分析了二重经济开放影响经济增长质量的作用机理。在理论分析的基础上,本文利用中国2002—2009年的省级面板数据,采用工具变量两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)考察了二重经济开放对经济增长质量的影响效应。研究结果发现:出口数量的扩张对经济增长质量的作用不明显,而出口质量的提高显著地促进了经济增长质量的提高;区际开放对中国经济增长质量的提高具有显著的促进作用;此外,在影响经济增长质量上,出口开放与区际开放之间存在显著的互补效应,即区际开放强化了出口开放对经济增长质量的促进作用。     

国际贸易与区域经济长期增长——基于近现代中国的研究

本文基于中国近现代历史经验,实证探讨了国际贸易对国内区域经济增长的长期影响。研究发现：近代出口贸易显著促进了1910—2010年区域人口长期增长。本文利用近代条约口岸的时空分布构建工具变量,并采取多种稳健性检验,上述结论保持成立。机制分析表明,出口贸易的长期影响主要来自工业集聚的外部规模经济效应与历史沉没投资的要素禀赋塑造效应。本文研究证明国际贸易的影响具有路径依赖性,揭示了中国区域经济不平衡增长的重要历史原因。     

制度变迁对山东省经济增长的影响分析

现代经济学理论将制度因素纳入经济增长的框架 ,认为经济增长的根本原因是制度的变迁。通过将制度变革量化 ,通过对 1978年以来的制度变革在山东省经济增长中的作用进行了实证分析 ,发现制度变革对山东省的经济增长具有显著贡献 ,是促进山东经济增长的最关键变量。     

科技成果转化对我国区域经济增长的有效性评价——基于2003——2008年面板数据的实证分析

利用2003—2008年中国内地31个省市自治区科技成果转化的面板数据,综合运用DEA和多元回归分析方法,评价科技成果转化对区域经济增长的有效性,应用科技成果转化对区域经济增长效应的评价模型分析了两者的关系,并找出了最显著的影响因素,为提高科技成果转化率提供了一个比较好的分析工具。通过科技成果转化对我国区域经济增长的整体效率、四大区域平均效率和内部有效性的差异系数计算,以及对不同变量进行敏感度分析,回归出不同变量对经济增长的效应。结果表明,科技成果转化对我国区域经济增长的贡献率不高,区域和省域差异显著。建议我国各区域加大科技成果产业化力度,以促进经济的有效增长。     

农业劳动力流动对中国经济增长的贡献

本文针对农业劳动力流动对中国经济增长的贡献,在二元经济结构和增长源核算框架下给出新的度量和结果。研究发现:(1)采用劳动再配置效应经典公式评估这种贡献时,通常会产生漏测或过测。在马塞尔增长源分解模式中嵌入劳动的制度异质性,可以得到一个具有比较优势的近似测算公式。(2)1985—2011年中国农业劳动力流动对经济增长的贡献具有递减的趋势,与经济增长具有相似的波动特征。(3)市场化改革以来,由于非农部门劳动的制度异质性被固化和农村劳动力教育增速放缓,农业劳动力流动促进经济增长的潜力受到了抑制。(4)实施相应制度创新之后,农业劳动力流动仍可为延续"中国奇迹"做出贡献。     

制度变迁对河南省经济增长贡献的实证分析

通过采取适当方式将制度变迁量化 ,并利用经济计量学的方法对改革开放以来的制度变迁在河南省经济增长中的作用进行了实证分析 ,发现经济体制变革对河南省的经济增长具有显著贡献 ,是促进河南省经济增长的重要变量 ,并对经济体制改革提出了一些建议     

IMPACT OF JOINING THE WTO ON CHINA's ECONOMIC, LEGAL AND POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS

Abstract.  This essay applies a historical–institutional approach to assess the impact of WTO membership on China's economic, legal and political institutions. In each case historical and institutional trends are described, and the effects of WTO membership on these trends are examined. The topics include changes in economic structure and the rate of growth of GDP, formal legal institutions and the legal behavior of the Chinese people, and the forces contributing to the development of democratic political institutions in China.     

财政分权、腐败与治理

财政分权对经济发展的影响已经成为转轨经济学研究的重要问题之一。大多数经济学家往往只看到财政分权对经济发展的促进作用,却忽视了在制度供给失衡的情况下,尤其是对像中国这样的转轨经济而言,它对长期经济发展是不利的,会产生诸如腐败等问题。文章运用中国省级面板数据检验了财政分权与腐败之间的关系。结果表明,财政分权恶化了腐败问题。因此,有必要通过完善财政分权体制来缓解其负面效应,这将有利于中国经济健康发展。     

Does cultural diversity increase the rate of entrepreneurship?

In the economic development literature, cultural diversity (for example, ethnolinguistic fractionalization) has been shown to have a negative impact on economic outcomes in many underdeveloped countries. We hypothesize that the impact of diversity on economic performance depends on the quality of a country's institutions. Under bad institutions diversity leads to conflict and expropriation, while under good institutions diversity leads to economic progress. A culturally diverse society or interaction among different cultures encourages exchange of, and competition between ideas and different world views. Under good institutions, this amalgamation of ideas and views leads to greater entrepreneurial initiatives. We show that higher levels of cultural diversity increase the rate of entrepreneurship in the presence of good institutions using evidence from the USA.     

新经济地理学中的制度转向与区域发展

近年来,伴随着资本主义社会经济转型和全球化,资本主义进入了制度重建的新阶段,社会科学日益重视“制度”因素的作用。经济地理学强调制度、文化对区域发展的影响,提出了经济地理学的“制度转向”。文章深入分析西方学者提出的制度转向、制度厚度概念及与区域发展关系的基础上,进行理论评析,并简要探讨对中国区域发展的启示。     

Is Tinkering with Institutional Quality a Panacea for Firm Performance? Insights from a Semiparametric Approach to Modeling Firm Performance

There is a large and growing literature on the impact of institutional quality on economic performance and the broad consensus is that “good” institutions facilitate better economic performance. The literature that provides micro‐level support for the policy discourse about institutional quality does not, however, account for significant intra‐country variation in reactions of firms to changes in business environments, even within the same industry, and it generally ignores the possibility that the impact of institutional quality on firm performance may not be neutral. In this paper, we analyze the impact of institutions on firm performance using an approach that enables us to overcome these problems with the stylized approach. Using cross‐country firm‐level data, we demonstrate that not only does the marginal impact of institutional quality vary significantly within countries, but also that the impact is economically significant only at the two extremes of the distribution. We view this as prima facie evidence that policies that tinker with institutional quality on the basis of the popular wisdom about the impact of these institutions on the average firm may not have the desired or expected impact, at least at the micro level.     

Do ideology movements and legal intervention matter: A synthetic control analysis of the Chongqing Model

Institutions have a fundamental influence on the economic performance of a regime. Among the various aspects of institutions, ideology and the legal system are two important ones. Chongqing Municipality, a province-level region in China, experienced such a combination with a unique leader from late 2007 to early 2012. This paper investigates, via the Synthetic Control Method, the economic performance of Chongqing in the last 13 years. In particular, it discusses the impact of the red ideology movements and legal intervention undertaken by Bo Xilai. The results reveal that although his economic policies promoted the Chongqing economy, the Maoist political policies advocated by Bo partially undermined its economic growth in the short run.     

Gender Development, Institutions, and Level of Economic Development

Gender inequality and the lack of gender development are major problems in developing countries. Neoclassical economics has generally argued that economic development will greatly enhance gender development. However, more recent work has emphasized the role of institutions. In this paper, a distinction is made between malleable institutions and those that change only over long periods of time. Empirical estimations of the impacts of economic development, malleable institutions, and hard-to-change institutions on gender development are carried out. The results indicate that both economic development and reform of malleable institutions are important determinants of relative gender performance. However, non-malleable institutions and cultural practices limit the impact that reform and economic development can have on relative gender performance.     

Empirical exercises in estimating the effects of different types of financial institutions’ functioning on economic growth

While recent studies of the finance-growth nexus have focused on the use of proxies which more accurately capture the theorized functioning of the financial sector, they have tended to focus either on the functioning of the financial sector as a whole, or on the dominant institutions within the sector. Little attention has been paid to a comparison of the relative effects of different types of financial institutions on economic growth. This article attempts to get a deeper understanding of the finance-growth process by disaggregating the total financial sector impact and examining the individual and relative effects of each type of institution in the financial sector. We explore the empirical properties of alternative specifications of models of the impact of financial institutions’ functioning on economic growth, by conducting a number of exercises. These exercises experiment with various model specifications to represent the long- and short-run impacts of the financial institutions’ functioning on economic growth, using cointegration and error correction methodologies.     

Institutions and the Relation between Corruption and Economic Growth

We study the effects of bureaucratic corruption on economic growth in a framework that takes into account that corruption also affects growth through its impact on institutions. We use a formal growth framework in which corruption affects growth negatively because of individual rent‐seeking and stealing of public goods, but where corruption may serve a positive role by taking over the role of institutions. We find that the overall effect of corruption on economic growth is highly dependent on the institutional setting of a country. Particularly in situations where institutions are not well developed corruption may be conducive to economic growth. We also find that the interaction among institutions themselves matters. This underscores the importance of taking into account the complete institutional setting when studying corruption, both in theory as well as empirically.     

Political versus economic institutions in the growth process

After a decade of research on the relationship between institutions and growth, there is no consensus about the exact way in which these two variables interact. In this paper we re-examine the role that institutions play in the growth process using data for developed and developing economies over the period 1975–2005. Our results indicate that the data is best described by an econometric model with two growth regimes. Political institutions are the key determinant of which regime an economy belongs to, while economic institutions have a direct impact on growth rates within each regime. These findings support the hypothesis that political institutions are one of the deep causes of growth, setting the stage in which economic institutions and standard covariates operate.