China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries

We analyze the impact of China’s growth on the exports of other Asian countries, distinguishing China’s demand for imports from its penetration of export markets. We account for the endogeneity of Chinese exports by applying instrumental variables in a gravity model with country-pair fixed-effects. We find that China’s crowding-out effect is felt mainly in markets for consumer goods and hence by less-developed Asian countries, not in markets for capital goods or by the more advanced Asian economies. Meanwhile, China has been sucking in imports from its Asian neighbors, but this effect is mainly felt in markets for capital goods. Hence, more and less developed Asian countries are being affected very differently by China’s rise. JEL no. E5, F4     

金融危机下中、印纺织品对美国出口的比较研究

本文从纺织品出口总额、出口纺织产品结构、出口纺织品价格等方面对比金融危机背景下中国和印度纺织品对美国出口变化情况。研究结果表明,美国市场仍是中国和印度纺织品出口争夺的主要市场,中国纺织品的优势面临印度的威胁。因此,中国应提高纺织产品质量,在扩大出口的同时注重国内市场,通过发挥传统优势培育特色品牌,促进纺织产业发展。     

Changing Engines of Growth in China： From Exports, FDI and Marketization to Innovation and Exports

This paper investigates the changing sources of growth in post-reform China. Using crossprovince regressions, this paper finds that, in earlier periods, exports, foreign direct investment and marketization were significantly related to per capita income growth, whereas＇ since the late 1990s, foreign direct investment and marketization have lost their significance and have been replaced by new sources of growth, such as innovation and knowledge, with only exports continuing to be important. This finding is robust after controlling for other variables representing other economic policies and provincial characteristics. We also tackle the possible endogeneity of innovation variables using the instrumental variables estimation method.     

中印城市化比较研究

通过中印城市化基础、城市化动力、城市化演进以及城市化进程中政府作用四个方面的比较,结合国际经验,在现有数据基础上对比分析两国城市化过程中的异同点,提出中印两国可以相互借鉴城市化经验、取长补短走出一条更为合理的城市化之路的政策建议。     

论中国与印度的经济合作

中印两国同为发展中大国,两国加强经济合作具有重要意义。近年来,中印经济合作取得了显著的成就,但仍存在一些问题与不足。中印两国应当继续保持高层互访,加强民间交流,推动贸易多样化,扩大双边贸易额,加强经贸协作的制度化建设,在可持续发展方面开展合作与交流,使双边经济合作进一步深入发展。     

中印投资环境比较研究及前景展望

本文分别从客观市场环境和政府营造环境两方面比较了中印现阶段的投资环境并对两国未来投资环境改进提出了具体建议。现阶段两国投资环境各有优劣,未来谁的投资环境更好取决于谁能更快更好地改革自己的不足。     

Urban Infrastructure Financing and Delivery in India and China

I. Introduction When Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh announced in 2005 that Mumbai will be like Shanghai for India, a trigger was fired. Little did he know that his statement would be taken out of context and interpreted differently than what he had meant. Since then, the term “Shanghaing Mumbai” has caught on in the city development discussions in India.The Chief Minister of Maharashtra said that he would do his best to fulfil the dream of making Mumbai into a World Class Ci…     

Dealing with the Contagion： China and India in the Aftermath of the Subprime Meltdown

What began as a downturn in the US housing sector in the summer of 2007 had mushroomed into a global financial crisis by September 2008： the most severe since the 1930s. Developing countries, including China and India, at first seemingly sheltered from the worst of the turmoil, have not been immune to the contagion＇s spillover effects. What are China and India＇s precise vulnerabilities, and what can each do to better insulate their economies from the vagaries of global financial marker turmoil？ Equally important, what long-term strategies must each country adopt to make their economies more resilient to global market downturns？     

China＇s Share of US Imports and Exchange Rate Pass-through to US Import Prices

The present paper investigates the effect of China's share of US imports on the aggregate‐level exchange rate pass‐through to US import prices over the period from January 1999 to December 2008. The paper also focuses on the post‐reform period, after 2005, allowing greater flexibility of the RMB to explore the change in the role of the Chinese import share in determining the trend in the US exchange rate pass‐through. Evidence reveals that China's share of US imports has a negative effect on the exchange rate pass‐through. However, this negative effect has been moderated to a negligible level since China's exchange rate reform. An important implication is that the exchange rate flexibility of the RMB has been raised to a significant level may no longer cause distortion in the US competitive environment and prevent the USA from adjusting current accounts.     

中印吸引外国直接投资 (FDI) 税收政策的比较

本文从税收政策角度考察了中印两国在吸引FDI方面的类似与不同,指出,中国除实行内外资企业所得税法的统一,还应在双重征税免除协定的签订以及产业、技术和地区引导等方面加强努力,以提供一个公平的税收环境。     

Industry‐specific Exchange Rate Fluctuations,Japanese Exports and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Panel Vector Autoregressive Analysis

Using a panel vector autoregression approach and industry breakdown data for financial constraints obtained from the Bank of Japan's Tankan (Short‐Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan) database, this study empirically investigates whether and how Japanese firms' financial constraints (internal and external) influence the response of Japanese sectoral exports to an exchange rate shock. Furthermore, we use the industry‐specific real effective exchange rate data developed by to allow for different movements of real effective exchange rates across industries. It is found that financial constraints have a significant influence on Japanese exports in response to exchange rate shocks. Japanese exporters with either lower internal financial constraints or external financial constraints are less affected by the yen's appreciation. In addition, if firms face high external financial constraints, only reducing the internal financial constraints cannot help them mitigate the impact of the yen's appreciation on their exports. Thus, an accommodative financial environment also plays an important role in alleviating the impact that the yen's appreciation has on Japanese exports.     

Trade Specialization in Latin America: The Impact of China and India

This paper examines the extent to which the growth of China and India in world markets is affecting the patterns of trade specialization in Latin American (LA) economies. We construct a measure of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) by 3-digit ISIC sector, country, and year. This RCA accounts for both imports and exports. The empirical analyses explore the correlation between the RCAs of LA and the two Asian economies. Econometric estimates suggest that the specialization pattern of LA—with the exception of Mexico—has been moving in opposite direction to the trade specialization pattern of China and India. Labor-intensive sectors (both unskilled and skilled) probably have been negatively affected by the growing presence of China and India in world markets, while natural resource and scientific knowledge intensive sectors have probably benefited from China and India’s growth since 1990. JEL no.  F10, F14     

The Evolving Role of China and India in the Global Financial System

Three main features characterize the international financial integration of China and India. First, while only having a small global share of privately-held external assets and liabilities, these countries are large holders of official reserves. Second, their international balance sheets are highly asymmetric: both are “short equity, long debt.” Third, China and India have improved their net external positions over the last decade although neoclassical models would predict them to be net borrowers. We argue that domestic financial policies are key to understanding these patterns and the future role of China in the international financial system.

Rise of China and India in International Trade： From Textiles to New Technology

China and India are two demographic giants that have become big developing economic powers. They have maintained their specialization in textiles and developed outward-oriented sectors linked to new technologies, taking advantage of offshoring and outsourcing. Their increasing contribution to international trade is changing the world supply and demand of manufactured goods, primary goods and services. They are new leaders in the international division of labor, but beyond technological catch-up, their challenge is quality upgrading. Both countries are increasingly contributing to global economic growth, but they cannot yet trigger the growth of the rest of the world by themselves.     

Product Cycles, Innovation, and Exports: A Study of Indian Pharmaceuticals

This paper studies the product cycle and neo-technology theories of trade in the context of generic pharmaceuticals. It analyzes the export performance of 131 Indian pharmaceutical firms for the period 1989–2004. The results indicate that technology proxied by foreign patent rights has a positive impact on exports. This suggests that developing countries with innovation skills for process innovations are capable of penetrating international markets in the later stages of the product cycle by using patents, which were the barriers to trade in the early stages of the product cycle.     

Pass-through Effects of Global Commodity Prices on China＇s Inflation： An Empirical Investigation

The present paper uses a two-step approach to estimate the pass-through effects of changes in international commodity prices and the RMB exchange rate on domestic consumer price inflation in China. We first estimate the pass-through effects of international commodity prices on producer prices and then estimate the pass-through effects of producer price inflation on consumer price inflation. We find that a l O-percent increase in international commodity prices would lead to China＇ s producer prices increasing by 1.2 percent 3 months later, which in turn would increase China＇ s domestic inflation by 0.24 percent over the same period. However, a 10-percent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar would help to reduce increases in producer prices by 4.4 percent over the following 3 months, which in turn would lead to a 0. 89-percent decline in consumer price inflation over the same period. Our findings suggest that appreciation of the RMB in an environment of rising global commodity prices and a weak US dollar could be an effective instrument to help contain inflation in China.     

Emergence of ASEAN, China and India and the Regional Architecture

The rise of ASEAN, China and India as economic powers is of great significance to regional as well as global economic development. Although their ascendance in the global economy will continue, they will have to go to great pains to meet the new challenges. Considering ASEAN, China and India as a group, due to their differences in economic development levels, economic structures and policy concern priorities, it is difficult for them to formulate a unified position on a range of global issues. ASEAN, China and India must foster an open, transparent and efficient regional as well as global environment. They need to cooperate in designing the architecture to ensure regional as well as global freer trade and investment and more stable finance, and to play more active roles in future global governance and rulemaking.     

Manufacturing productivity in China and India: The role of institutional changes

In this paper we undertake a comparative study of productivity in the manufacturing sector for China and India using data from survey of manufacturing industries for the two countries. We find that productivity of manufacturing industries in China relative to that in India improved substantially over the 1998–2003 period. Specifically, the average total factor productivity (TFP) growth for the manufacturing sector over this period was about 11% higher in China than in India. We document two substantial changes in government policies in China that were not witnessed in India. First, the late 1990s saw an enormous wave of ownership restructuring due to the formal endorsement of private property rights by the Chinese central government. Second, in 1997 a large scale labour retrenchment program was launched to address the long standing problem of labour redundancy in the public sector. Using data from the Chinese survey of manufacturing industries, we quantify the impact of these large scale institutional changes on TFP of Chinese manufacturing industries. We find that these policy changes can explain about 30% of the growth in TFP of manufacturing industries. Hence we conclude that these institutional changes in China can account for a significant part of the gains in productivity of manufacturing industries in China relative to that in India over the 1998–2003 period.