Capital Allocation for Portfolio Credit Risk

Capital allocation rules are derived that maximize leverage while maintaining a target solvency rate for credit portfolios where risk is driven by a single common factor and idiosyncratic risk is fully diversified. Equilibrium conditions ensure that capital allocations depend on interest earnings as well as credits’ probability of default, endogenous loss given default, and asset correlation. Capitalization rates exceed those estimated using Gaussian credit loss models. Results demonstrate that credit risk is undercapitalized by the Basel II AIRB approach in part because of ambiguities regarding the definition of loss given default. An alternative proposed capital rule removes this bias.     

基于分层模型的银行客户信用风险预测研究

本文基于商业银行客户信贷记录数据集,通过运用拉普拉斯分层模型对客户的信用风险进行预测研究.利用客户群体存在差异化的特点,采用XGBoost机器学习算法来选择分层特征以及结合多元特征的组合形式来预测客户的违约情况.在不同分层特征结构下依次对比拉普拉斯分层模型、单独模型、共同模型和随机森林四个模型的预测效果,并建立模拟数据集来对拉普拉斯分层模型的性能进行验证.研究发现:(1)拉普拉斯分层模型的预测精度是最高的,预测性能具有稳定性;(2)本文数据集所适用的最佳分层特征是贷款金额、年龄和婚姻;(3)分层特征的选择和数量会依据不同数据而产生相应变化,并非一成不变.结合本文的研究思路和结果,以期为商业银行在客户信用风险评估实践中提供新的思考和建议.     

Saving and Portfolio Allocation Before and After Job Loss

We investigate the development of household labor income, financial wealth, and asset holdings over a 9‐year period around job loss, using unique administrative panel data from Norway. Consistent with predictions from theory, the data show additional saving and a shift toward safer assets in the years leading up to unemployment, and depletion of savings after job loss. In the years after job loss, the households' after‐tax labor income is reduced by about USD 12,500. Over the same time period, households deplete USD 3,000 of their financial assets, of which one third is accumulated prior to the job loss. This suggests that at least some households can foresee and prepare for the upcoming unemployment, which indicates that private savings can, to some extent, serve as a substitute for publicly provided unemployment insurance.     

贷款定价:从信用评级到经济资本

贷款定价是当今国际性银行全面风险管理理念的典型标志之一。本文以实地考察的美国美联银行(Wachovia Bank)为例,分析了其贷款定价的操作原理和基本理念,研究了内部信用评级、经济资本和贷款定价等相关内容。     

农村信用社经营亏损因析

经营亏损问题是制约信用社发展的重要因素,在深化改革的形势下,要认真分析造成亏损的深层次原因,进而采取有效的措施,才能更好地加快信用社发展。     

Valuation of Portfolio Credit Derivatives with Default Intensities Using the Vasicek Model

We present a methodology for valuing portfolio credit derivatives under a reduced form model for which the default intensity processes of risk assets follow the one-factor Vasicek model. A closed-form solution of joint survival time distribution is obtained. The solution is applied to value credit derivatives of a credit default swap index and collateralized debt obligation. The limitation of methods using the Vasicek model is discussed. We propose that the method is valid and efficient for a portfolio with small-scale correlated risk assets, for which the acceptable size is much greater than for the traditional method. Numerical examples and parameter analysis are also presented.     

Extending COLOSSUS to Cover Compensation for Future Economic Loss

COLOSSUS is a mainframe-based expert system jointly developed by Continuum Australia and GIO (General Insurance Organization) for the assessment of third-party claims. COLOSSUS has been in production for over two years and is accessible throughout all GIO regions in New South Wales, Australia. In this paper we describe the extension of COLOSSUS to cater for future economic loss to a claimant. Because of the diversity of knowledge sources in the insurance domain, we have adopted a highly interactive approach that requires successive user confirmations during a consultation. The practicality of our knowledge engineering approach is highlighted by examining several difficult issues. Design issues are also addressed with particular reference to clarity and ease of maintenance. An annotated report of a sample run is enclosed.     

绿色信贷“贷”动经济转型

运用信贷杠杆落实国家节能减排政策,是金融业承担调整经济结构和转变发展方式这一使命的重要手段。这其中,绿色信贷扮演了重要角色,它在依据国家产业政策和环境政策的基础上,遏制高耗能、高污染即＂两高＂行业对环境资源的破坏,运用资金有效配置各种资源,并且为生态保护、生态环境建设和绿色产业融资而进行金融创新,从而达到金融业的科学发展和可持续发展。     

基于特征衍生的个人信用风险评估组合模型研究

在特征选择和特征衍生的基础上,分别基于特征扰动和XGBoost与Lightgbm的算法差异建立了四个单一模型;利用单一模型性能确定权重,构建了个人信用风险评估的线性组合模型.实证分析发现,有衍生特征的四个单一模型的AUC和KS均优于无衍生特征的四个单一模型,有衍生特征组合模型的AUC和KS均优于无衍生特征组合模型.实证...     

Global Economic Divergence and Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

This paper studies the role of global and regional variations in economic activity and policy in developed world in driving portfolio capital flows (PCFs) to emerging markets (EMs). Results suggest that PCFs to EMs depend mainly on economic activity at the global level and monetary policy in America and Asia, positively on the former and negatively on the latters. PCFs are procyclical with respect to global activity, but countercyclical to regional activity. In aggregate, regional variations contribute more than global variations. This implies that economic divergence in the developed world can have significant effects on EMs via PCFs.     

Evidence of Forward-Looking Loan Loss Provisioning with Credit Market Information

Our paper makes a fundamental contribution by studying loan loss provisioning over the credit cycle as three distinct phases. Looking at the three distinct phases of the financial crisis – the pre-crisis period, crisis period, and post-crisis period – is important as loan loss provisioning is driven by different factors in each, in part due to extensive shifts in (or in the application of) regulatory rule. Controlling for credit market information using data from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Surveys (SLOOS) we extend the work of previous studies of forward-looking loan loss provisions using the delayed expected loss recognition approach. We contribute to the growing literature on forward-looking loan loss provisioning and early in the cycle loss recognition by incorporating a broader range of available credit information and explicitly controlling for structural breaks in the sample corresponding to the financial crisis.     

Developing Confidence Intervals for Office Market Forecasts

This study focuses on the precision of models that forecast office construction and absorption. The article is novel because for the first time it applies Feldsteins (1971) technique for developing forecast standard errors in the presence of stochastic exogenous variables. The purpose of the article is not to find behavioral relationships but rather to evaluate forecasts. We find that in the case of many office markets, standard errors of long-term forecasts for absorption and completions are quite large, and therefore the forecasts themselves should not be used as a reliable basis for underwriting.     

Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice

We study asset allocation when the conditional moments of returns are partly predictable. Rather than first model the return distribution and subsequently characterize the portfolio choice, we determine directly the dependence of the optimal portfolio weights on the predictive variables. We combine the predictors into a single index that best captures time variations in investment opportunities. This index helps investors determine which economic variables they should track and, more importantly, in what combination. We consider investors with both expected utility (mean variance and CRRA) and nonexpected utility (ambiguity aversion and prospect theory) objectives and characterize their market timing, horizon effects, and hedging demands.     

消费信贷与经济增长的协动关系研究

经济增长是一国或地区最重要的目标,只有长期的经济发展才能提升全民的福祉和生活水平。消费是生产的出发点,同时也是最终的归宿。采用离散选择模型对经济增长与短期消费信贷和长期消费信贷的关系进行分析,结果表明,长期消费信贷对经济增长的拉动效应较明显,有效地发挥和挖掘消费信贷带动的长期消费对扩大内需和经济健康稳定发展至关重要。     

Economic Value Added,Future Accounting Earnings,and Financial Analysts' Earnings Per Share Forecasts

Empirical research to date on the relative effectiveness of Economic Value Added (EVA) and earnings per share (EPS) as measures of firm performance for stock valuation has been mixed. In contrast to prior research, which primarily focuses on the correspondence of these measures with shareholder value and changes therein, we examine their relative effectiveness in predicting future earnings and their role in enhancing the accuracy of analysts' forecasts. Our results indicate that EVA contains information that is incremental to EPS in predicting future earnings. In addition, we find that despite this potential for EVA to add incremental value to analysts' forecasts of future earnings, analysts do not use the information in reported EVA appropriately, but appear rather to overweigh it.     

当前经济形势下商业银行信贷战略选择

<正> 去年,我国经济增长速度加快,商业银行信贷投放速度空前高涨。为防范系统性金融风险,央行积极采取了适度控制措施,提高准备金率,同时加强以风险控制为重点的窗口指导。进入三季度,各银行信贷增速开始回落,贷款扩张势头得到了有效控制。但从长期看,我国商业银行信贷结构不合理现象并未根本改变,各类业务中包含的信用风险、操作风险和流动性风险等仍在不断暴露。本文结合我国银行业风险最新特点和走势,提出当前形势下商业银行信贷发展的基本战略选择。     

浅议当前经济形势下的信贷风险防范

本文分析了当前国际、国内经济金融形势动荡的背景下,商业银行所面临的三个重要风险,针对性地提出防范商业银行信贷风险的五项措施.     

从山东信贷结构看经济结构存在的问题

近年来,山东金融机构紧紧围绕省委省政府关于经济结构调整的战略部署,以优化信贷结构为着力点,积极实现产业政策与信贷政策的有效对接。在经济形势最为困难的2009年,信贷投放突出＂足、大、快、多、强、早＂的特点,积极发挥对经济结构调整的导向作用。但同沿海先进省份相比,山东经济结构调整进展相对缓慢。金融是现代经济的核心,经济结构的矛盾和问题,直接反映在信贷结构中,并制约未来信贷的可持续增长。2010年,信贷结构将继续贯彻＂区别对待、有保有压＂,在引导经济结构调整方面积极作为。