证券市场新旧投资理念更替过程研究:一个基于演化视角的分析

本文借助惯例演化博弈模型来分析证券市场新旧投资理念的更替过程。本文的主要结论如下。选择现有投资理念的个体所占比重以及选择新投资理念的相对效用决定了现有投资理念实现ESS均衡的难度;现有投资理念的ESS均衡不是随机稳定均衡(SSE),而新投资理念的ESS均衡是惟一的SSE;在特定投资者空间分布和信息交换模式下,选择新投资理念的成员规模和协同效应的限定程度决定了新投资理念能否扩散。     

APPRENTICES AND YOUNG WORKERS: A STUDY OF THE NORWEGIAN YOUTH LABOUR MARKET

Apprenticeship programmes are in many countries important stepping stones into the labour market. However, recruitment of apprentices seems to follow the business cycle. This pattern may be caused by firms' contemporaneous demand for labour, but may also be consistent with an investment hypothesis. A model, in which the tightness in the labour market is taken into account, is tested on a sample of Norwegian quarterly firm‐specific data. The empirical findings give moderate support to an investment hypothesis. The apprentices substitute to some degree for skilled labour but are recruited primarily based on the labour market situation. The wage level plays a minor role for recruitment of apprentices.     

PROPERTY MARKET AND THE MACROECONOMY OF MAINLAND CHINA: A CROSS REGION STUDY

Abstract.  This paper studies the nexus between the property market and macroeconomy of China in 1998–2004, using panel data models covering 31 provinces and major cities. The estimates suggest three main conclusions. First, there seemed to be a two-way linkage between property prices and GDP growth. Second, bank credit expansion did not seem to play an 'accelerating' role in property price inflation, although the latter is found to have contributed to bank credit increases in recent years. Third, property price growth may have deviated from fundamentals in coastal areas, as evidenced by a negative relationship between housing and rental prices.     

INCENTIVES AND THE COST OF FIRING IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LABOR MARKET MODEL WITH ENDOGENOUS LAYOFFS*

I study the effects of firing costs in an equilibrium model of the labor market with moral hazard. Layoff is an incentive device, modeled as termination of the optimal long‐term contract. When the economy’s stock of firms is fixed, firing costs could reduce layoffs and increase worker welfare. In the long run when firms are free to enter and exit the market, firing costs generate not only lower employment, longer unemployment durations, and lower aggregate output, but also lower welfare for both employed workers and new labor market entrants.     

THE POLITICS OF INVESTMENT PARTISANSHIP: AND THE SECTORAL ALLOCATION OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

This paper explores the existence of partisan cycles in foreign direct investment performance. Our theoretical model predicts that the incumbent government's partisanship should affect foreign investors' decision to flow into different sectors of the host country: pro-labor governments would encourage the inflow of the type of investment that complements labor in production; pro-capital governments would promote the entry of investment that substitutes for labor. Empirical evidence from a sample of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries reveals a pattern of foreign investors' response to partisan cycles consistent with the predictions of the model. First, foreign investment systematically flows into different sectors of the host economy under left- and right-leaning incumbents. Second, we find a positive correlation between foreign investment and changes in average wages under left-leaning incumbents, but no effect on wages under right-leaning governments.     

COLLEGE ADMISSIONS AND THE ROLE OF INFORMATION: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY*

Three well‐known matching mechanisms designed to solve the college admissions problems are analyzed in the experimental laboratory in different informational settings. We observe that when the level of information is significantly increased, the proportion of schools and teachers that submit their true preferences decreases. This affects largely the efficiency and stability of the Gale–Shapley and the Boston mechanisms. The TTC mechanism is less sensitive to information and outperforms the other two mechanisms in terms of efficiency and stability, and it is as successful as them in extracting private information.     

外商投资与天津电子信息产业群的形成演化研究

产业群是产业发展的一种内在规律,也和经济的对外开放程度有很大关系。文章以天津电子信息产业群为例,分析了外商直接投资对地方产业群形成演变所起的作用,认为大量的外资进入是产业群形成的直接动力,建立在供给与需求机制上的跨国公司与当地国有企业之间产业链的融合是产业群成长的根本动力。随着跨国公司在全球的投资目标和经营方式的改变,本地生产网络和全球生产网络格局发生了变化,对于这一类产业群,其持续的发展有赖于不断的制度创新。     

多代理人情形下的授权结构与激励

现有关于授权与激励的文献侧重于考察"是否授权"的问题。本文研究不同授权结构之间激励效果的比较。沿袭Aghion and Tirole(1997),本文在"一个委托人-两个代理人"的框架下,区分了"平行授权"、"优先授权"和"次第授权"三种授权结构。我们发现,项目带给代理人的净私人收益越大、代理人之间异质性越强、代理人之间的正外部性越弱(或负外部性越强),次第授权和优先授权越可能好过平行授权;反之,则平行授权越可能占优。当项目必须完成的时间越紧急,平行授权或优先授权越可能好过次第授权;反之,则次第授权越可能占优。我们的发现从激励和授权角度对组织(比如,董事会、公司、议会、政府机构)内部授权结构的一些现象提供了一些解释。     

ECONOMIC INCENTIVES AND CONTRACTS: THE USE OF PSYCHOTROPIC MEDICATIONS

The advent of novel psychotropic medications has revolutionized treatments for mental illnesses over the past few decades. Concurrently, changes in mental health coverage, particularly for Medicaid patients, created economic incentives for insurance carriers to shift costs and to encourage the use of psychotropic drugs. To quantify these effects, based on the framework in Griliches' seminal study on hybrid corn, we estimate logistic diffusion models using a longitudinal data set on Medicaid drug utilization. We find that financial incentives played a significant role in encouraging use of new medications that have lower physician specialty skill requirements. ( JEL O30, O33, I18, L14)     

地区引资的成本-效果分析与投资环境优化

各地优化其投资环境以吸引投资需要成本,引资成本与其所获得的引资效果之间存有一般关系.而这种一般关系曲线在现实中要考虑各地投资环境的先天条件和具体引资操作等因素而对其起点和过程进行修正.对引资所用方式和手段的无差异曲线的分析可为更经济地优化投资环境提供参考.投资环境优化首先需要确定优化目标,它是地区的目标引资项目的公共影响因素和专业影响因素所包含的各方面.投资环境优化措施就针对优化目标来提出,并要综合考虑这些措施所需成本与其所获综合引资效果来实施.     

我国湖泊管理体制机制研究——以江苏省为例

水环境日趋恶化是当前中国经济发展的突出问题,症结在于现行水管理体制机制不完善.文章通过实证研究.以江苏湖泊为样本,分析了湖泊管理结构及规划管理、行政执法管理、目标管理等方面的问题,并借鉴国内外湖泊管理经验,建议改进我国现行湖泊管理体制机制,对湖泊的开发利用与保护实行一体化管理.可行方案是:在现行分级、分部门管理的基础上,在流域尺度下对湖泊实行协调性综合管理,并提出了省级湖泊管理模式.     

REGULATORY FORBEARANCE AND DEPOSITOR MARKET DISCIPLINE: EVIDENCE FROM SAVINGS BANKS IN KOREA

This paper investigates whether regulatory forbearance for savings banks in Korea affects the market discipline of depositors using data from 2000 to 2010, which are characterized by a series of exits of savings banks. We find that depositors' sensitivity to the savings banks' asset quality decreases when there is regulatory forbearance for failing savings banks. This forbearance effect is also observed in the behavior of the depositors of the neighboring savings banks in the same business area. These results suggest that regulatory forbearance may cause depositors to misjudge bank risks, increasing the expected costs of bank failure. (JEL G21, G28)     

WORK INCENTIVES OF MEDICAID BENEFICIARIES AND THE ROLE OF ASSET TESTING

Should asset testing be used in means‐tested programs? Focusing on Medicaid, we show that in the asymmetric information environment, there is a positive role for asset testing. Our tool is a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents. We find that 23% of Medicaid enrollees do not work in order to be eligible. These distortions are costly: If Medicaid eligibility could be linked to (unobservable) productivity, this results in substantial welfare gains. We show that asset testing can achieve a similar outcome when asset limits are allowed to be different for workers and nonworkers.     

湖南省制造业投资环境评价指标体系

通过分析湖南省制造业投资环境因素,在现有投资环境评价指标的基础上,通过大量问卷调查和相关分析,力图建立一套完整的湖南省制造业投资环境评价指标体系,为投资环境优化提供科学指导。     

SAVINGS MOBILIZATION,FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND LIBERALIZATION: THE CASE OF MALAYSIA

This paper attempts to identify the key factors behind Malaysia's remarkable savings performance. Drawing on the life cycle theory, the saving function is estimated by incorporating other relevant structural features and institutional settings of the Malaysian economy into the specification. Particular emphasis has been placed on the roles of financial factors in mobilizing funds in the private sector. The results suggest that financial deepening and increased banking density tend to encourage private savings. Development of insurance markets and liberalization of the financial system, however, tend to exert a dampening effect on private savings.