Setting Climate Action as the Priority for the Common Agricultural Policy: A Simulation Experiment

We quantitatively assess the impacts of re-allocating budgetary resources within Pillar 1 of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) from direct income support to a direct greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction subsidy for EU farmers. The analysis is motivated by the discussion on the future CAP, with calls for both an increased ambition on climate action from the agricultural sector and for a more incentive-based delivery system of direct payments under strict budgetary restrictions. By conducting a simulation experiment with an agricultural partial equilibrium model (CAPRI), we are able to factor in farmers’ supply and technology-adjusting responses to the policy change and to estimate the potential uptake of the GHG-reduction subsidy in EU regions. We find that a budget-neutral re-allocation of financial resources towards subsidised emission savings can reduce EU agricultural non-CO₂ emissions by 21% by 2030, compared to a business-as-usual baseline. Two-thirds of the emission savings are due to changes in production levels and composition, implying that a significant part of the achieved GHG reduction is offset globally by emission leakage. At the aggregated level, the emission-saving subsidy and increased producer prices compensate farmers for the foregone direct income support, but differences in regional impacts indicate accelerated structural change and heterogeneous income effects in the farm population. We conclude that the assumed regional budget-neutrality condition introduces inefficiencies in the incentive system, and the full potential of the EU farming sector for GHG emissions reduction is not reached, leaving ample room for the design of more efficient agricultural policies for climate action.     

African Agricultural Development: Lessons and Challenges

This paper reviews what has been learned from experiences of African agriculture and hence what policy lessons may be. Views of African agriculture over the last 130 years have changed from optimism to pessimism and at least halfway back again as the performance of the sector has fluctuated. Fortunately it seems the deep pessimism about agricultural prospects expressed in the 1980s and 1990s has receded. The performance of African agriculture since 1990 suggests that neither those who doubt that any significant advances are taking place, nor those who see advances in some remarkable but perhaps isolated cases of rapid transformation of farming and agricultural supply chains, have sufficient evidence – either from national data or small‐scale studies – to support their positions. Hence policy has to rely largely on general principles and historic lessons, rather than more clearly proven propositions. Policy debates over African agricultural development may sharply divide on some topics, but there is little debate over the importance of basic conditions for agricultural development of an enabling investment climate and the provision of rural public goods. Beyond these basics, the challenge is to remedy the failings of markets that deny most smallholders access to inputs, financial services and insurance. Here opinion divides between whether to return to public provision, as with fertiliser subsidies, or whether private and collective institutional innovations will be sufficient. Recent initiatives to test and scale up the latter look promising, but most have yet to be evaluated. If agricultural development is first and foremost about establishing the basic conditions for growth, then most countries in Africa may be better placed than they have been in the past. Given the many examples that show African smallholders investing and innovating when they have the chance, then there are reasons to hope that the modest growth of production and productivity seen in the last two decades may accelerate in the future – thereby allowing African countries to make the transition from agrarian to urban economies.     

Evaluating Agricultural Productivity and Policy in Russia

Russia's transition to a market economy in the early 1990s shocked its agricultural sector, creating the potential for profit and gains from specialisation and productivity improvements. However, subsequent regional agricultural development has been highly uneven, and the sources of the sector's productivity improvement remain unclear. Drawing on a newly-assembled Russian regional farm production and policy dataset, we evaluate agricultural total factor productivity growth from 1994 to 2013, decomposing that growth into technical progress and efficiency gains, for the nation as a whole and for the major agricultural districts of the South and Central. We then test how investments in road and rail infrastructure and human capital have influenced those gains. The South substantially outperformed the Central district and the nation at large with respect to all three performance indicators. However, contrary to the literature, we find that these particular state policies provided no substantial growth advantages, there or elsewhere. Rather, the dominant force behind Russia's agricultural growth has been informal technical change.     

Broad‐based Agricultural Development versus Food Self‐sufficiency: A General Equilibrium Analysis in India

Intersectoral linkages are analysed using a CGE model based on a SAM constructed from Indian national accounts data for 1988–89. The model includes the rural non‐farm sector, public sector production and aspects of public policy. Evidence supports the arguments of Chakravarty (1987) and Ahluwalia (1986) regarding the importance of broad‐based agricultural development as opposed to increased production in the food sector alone aimed at achieving food self‐sufficiency.     

Agricultural sustainability assessment at provincial level in Pakistan

Agriculture sector of Pakistan has traditionally followed an unsustainable path due to degradation of agricultural resources. Therefore, this study was carried out to find environmental, economic and social sustainability of agriculture in Punjab, Sindh, KPK and Balochistan provinces of Pakistan. Based mainly on secondary data, covering the period of 2005/06–2012/13, each dimension of sustainability was analyzed using selected indicators. Crop diversification, soil salinity, and the use of organic and inorganic fertilizers and pesticides were the indicators considered for environmental sustainability analysis. For economic sustainability analysis, change in overall crop production and stability of crop production were the indicators used. Employment of rural labor force and food security were indicators used for social sustainability analysis. The findings from the analyses revealed a tendency towards unsustainable agricultural production in all provinces. This was caused by overuse of inorganic fertilizer, pesticides and groundwater for irrigation in Sindh and Punjab. The lack of sustainable agricultural production in KPK and Balochistan was due to limited use of fertilizer and pesticides in some areas and altogether no use in other areas. Use of groundwater for irrigation in the coastal areas of Balochistan further reinforced agricultural unsustainability. Thus, it was deduced from the findings of this research that there are regional differences in agricultural sustainability in Pakistan. Therefore, it is recommended to formulate effective regional agricultural policies based on local level research and revise agricultural extension structure in order to incorporate need-based services with better dissemination of information and farm level trainings. In addition, broad policy recommendations are made for sustainable agricultural development in each province under the scope of the study.     

新农业政策的经济影响分析

本文在介绍了2004年以来我国的新农业政策的内容的基础上,简要分析了新农业政策实施的直接效果,重点分析了新农业政策对我国农业生产、进出口贸易、农产品消费者价格、农业生产者价格的影响,并据此提出了针对性的建议。     

China’s Agricultural Policy Transition: Impacts of Recent Reforms and Future Scenarios

This article reviews recent developments in China’s agricultural domestic support policy, especially the transition from taxing farmers and agriculture to providing direct subsidies to grain production and purchased inputs. A model‐based quantitative analysis on the effects of these policy changes is presented. Simulation results suggest that recent policy changes have achieved the declared policy goals of increasing grain production and boosting farm income. Much of the increase in grain production and farm income can be attributed to higher per unit return to arable land, land reallocation to grain production and extra agricultural employment triggered by the policy changes. Based on the assumption that China’s public assistance to agriculture and farmers will continue and rise, two hypothetical future scenarios are simulated. Using all the support permitted under WTO de minimis limits with existing instruments, China’s policy will increase grain production, change trade patterns seemingly contrary to China’s comparative advantage, increase rural employment and significantly increase farm income (by more than 12%). If, however, decoupled instruments are applied to raise China’s agricultural domestic support to the same level, China’s agricultural production and trade will remain unchanged, rural employment remain stable, but farm income will be increased by nearly 15%.     

新型农业经营主体财政政策需求优先序及影响因素分析——以河南省为例

[目的]探索新型农业经营主体对各类财政政策需求顺序及影响因素,为优化新型农业经营主体发展和农业适度规模经营财政政策提供依据。[方法]文章基于河南省延津等5县调查问卷,运用加权统计频数累计求和和聚类分析确定新型农业经营主体财政政策需求优先序,运用二元Logistic选择模型分析政策影响因素。[结果]（1）河南省新型农业经营主体财政政策需求依次是：农业信贷担保政策、财政专项资金政策、农业生产保险政策、农机购置补贴政策等。（2）达到5%显著水平的变量有,农业信贷担保政策需求分析中的程序是否方便变量,财政专项资金政策需求分析中生产经营规模、是否主要从事加工或者收储业、近3年来是否享受过该项政策、对该项政策的满意程度4个变量,农业生产保险政策需求分析中是否主要从事畜牧业、是否主要从事加工或者收储业（负向影响） 2个变量,农机购置补贴政策需求分析中是否主要从事粮食种植业、政策知晓程度、对该项政策的满意程度3个变量。[结论]完善农业信贷担保政策、财政专项资金政策、农业政策性生产保险政策、农机购置补贴政策等政策设计,因地因业因人制宜打好政策组合拳,提升财政资金整体政策效应。     

The Effects of Direct Payments on Technical Efficiency of Irish Beef Farms: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis

The 2003 Mid‐Term Review of the CAP sought to refocus the EU's farm support policy to foster a more competitive and market‐orientated agricultural sector. The foundation of this reform comprised the introduction of decoupled payments to farmers, replacing the EU's previous system of supports that were directly linked to production of designated crops and livestock. This paper explores the effect of coupled payments and their subsequent replacement by decoupled support, on the technical efficiency of specialist beef farms in Ireland. Given the high reliance of beef farmers in Ireland on CAP payments, the decoupling of payments has been especially important for the sector. A stochastic production frontier is estimated using a panel dataset comprising detailed accountancy data for Irish beef farms between the years 2000 and 2013. Our results indicate that technical efficiency in the beef farming sector has been consistently poor, with an average efficiency score of only 0.53 during the period analysed. However, we found that direct income received in the form of coupled payments had a positive impact on farm efficiency, and that this positive effect was maintained after their replacement with decoupled income support.     

The Growing Heterogeneity in the Farm Sector and Its Implications*

The farm sector has moved from one that was very homogeneous to one with significant differences in size and/or orientation. The decline in the number of “average‐sized” farm and the growth in the number of large farms are due primarily to technological innovations that push operations producing commodities to grow as a means of capturing economies of size. The increase in the relative number of small farms is also due partially to technical advances that allow for the production of food goods with the desired quality attributes to be delivered to the appropriate market. This market is continually being differentiated due to demographic and income shifts. The growing heterogeneity in farm structure complicates the assessment and design of farm policy. The social policy objective of improving the livelihood of farmers and their families could be achieved through farm support and extension programs when the sector was homogeneous. The policy objective has shifted toward improving the competitiveness of the sector, but for which of its components? The trend toward greater heterogeneity is likely to continue and thus so will the internal and external support for any policies targeted toward the farm sector.     

Policy drivers of farm succession and inheritance

Farm succession and inheritance is increasingly considered a complex phenomenon which not only affects core dimensions of farm family life but also the agricultural sector more widely. Intergenerational farm transfer in particular is increasingly viewed as fundamental to the sustainability and development of global agriculture. In the majority of EU countries, the average age of farmers is increasing, while the number of farmers under 40 years of age is decreasing. There is growing concern that this demographic trend may have negative impacts on the agricultural industry because it is younger and not older farmers who are associated with more efficient and effective production practices. The question of what motivates decisions to transfer farms is a complex one, and research to date has not apparently enlightened agricultural policy to the extent that current trends towards an ageing farm population are being managed. This research aims to investigate economic and financial aspects of the policy drivers of farm succession and inheritance in Ireland to understand what it is about the policy environment that is failing to stimulate higher levels of farm transfer. It draws on the Teagasc National Farm Survey data which provides Irish data to the Farm Accountancy Data Network in the European Commission. A hypothetical microsimulation model is used to investigate economic factors of farm transfers, with scenarios created to test these factors and their impacts on the transfer process. The Net Present Value (NPV) of income streams for farmers and their successors are calculated to assess which scenarios have the highest/lowest financial effects. The findings illustrate a range of possible scenarios for farm succession/inheritance, with some results indicating that under current policy retaining a farm until death may be more economically beneficial to a farmer than transferring land before death.     

我国家庭农场发展现状及其对策研究

家庭农场是在我国农村现有基础上建立的,是新型的农业生产主体,是实行农业现代化的金钥匙。家庭农场的出现,既增加农民的收入,又可以实现农业生产的产业化。文章运用文献分析和实地调研相结合的研究方法,分析了当前我国家庭农场的发展现状,即我国家庭农场呈现出经营规模不同、经营品种不同、经营效益较好、具有市场竞争力等明显特征。家庭农场的发展面临大好机遇,但是也存在土地产权认识不明晰、资金短缺、劳动力缺乏等瓶颈问题。并提出明确家庭农场认定标准、引导土地向家庭农场流转、农民的技术培训、完善农业保险、政府给予一定的资金政策等建议,旨在为各地区制定发展家庭农场政策提供参考。     

Government Expenditures,Health Outcomes and Marginal Productivity of Agricultural Inputs: The Case of Tanzania

This paper examines the impact of health expenditures on agricultural labour productivity in order to inform the necessary policy decisions about targeting scarce public resources towards their most effective uses. We link health sector expenditures in rural Tanzania to health outcomes and agricultural labour productivity using data from the 2008 Household Budget Survey (10,975 households) and the 2007/08 Agricultural Census (52,594 households) across 113 districts in Tanzania. The results indicate that the marginal productivity of labour as well as land and fertilisers respond significantly to health expenditures. However, the magnitude of the response varies across types of disease, categories of expenditures and agricultural inputs. These findings suggest both the need and scope for targeting public expenditures in the health sector to achieve better agricultural growth outcomes.     

Crop diversification in Thailand: Status,determinants, and effects on income and use of inputs

Following the national policy, the Department of Agriculture of Thailand has implemented a crop diversification program in several provinces of the country. This study, which was conducted in Nakhon Pathom Province, analyzed the extent of crop diversification and its determinants using primary information collected from 245 farm households using a structured questionnaire, and from selected farmer leaders and agricultural development officials. The study also assessed the effects of crop diversification on income and the inputs used. The findings of the study revealed that nearly three fourths of the land is still being used for rice mono-cropping, indicating little success in the promotion of the crop diversification program. Paddy fields, including farms for cultivating rice under mono-cropping and diversified system, still account for 90% of the total farmland in the country. The limited impact of the program on the farming sector is attributed primarily to the variation in land and labor resources available at the farmers’ disposal as well as soil suitability. The farmers’ attendance in training and interaction with farmer groups are the other influential factors. Although cropping diversification has provided attractive financial return particularly to the small farmers, it has also accelerated the use of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. Broad policy instruments are therefore suggested for the effective implementation of future crop diversification programs in Thailand and perhaps elsewhere in Southeast Asia.     

Off-farm Labour Supply with Productivity Increases,Peak Period Production and Farm Structure Impacts

The study of of-farm employment of farm family members in the context of a neoclassical time allocation model of labor supply is used to attempt to explain the amount and type of off-farm employment currently prevalent on the Canadian Prairies. The effect of labor saving technical change together with a production process characterized by periods of peak activity affect the priority that may be assigned to off-farm work These factors require explicit consideration in the theoretical framework for the study of off-farm employment. The refinements occasioned by expanding the paradigm in this manner have implications for the role of rural development policy in the support of the agricultural sector     

农业供应链金融的数字化转型:理论与中国案例

随着农村电商、物联网和数字金融的快速发展,我国农业供应链金融开始向数字化转型,本文对数字化农业供应链金融模式进行理论和案例分析。研究发现,相比于传统农业供应链金融,数字化农业供应链金融借助于电商平台、物联网、大数据和云计算等数字应用和技术,能够降低金融服务过程中的交易成本,构建农村数字化信用评价体系,优化风险控制策略,最终提高金融供给效率。目前数字化农业供应链金融已形成互联网企业驱动和数字化农业企业驱动两种模式,但是仍面临资金成本高、数字足迹缺乏和信息孤岛等问题,限制其作用的发挥。未来应加快对传统农业的数字化改造,推动农村电商的发展,支持和规范涉农互联网金融机构的发展,最终完善数字化农业供应链金融模式,为发展中国家的农业供应链金融贡献创新模式。     

Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?

There is little doubt that Brexit would have significant implications for UK agriculture, a sector with strong trade links to the EU and strong reliance on CAP income support. This article reports preliminary results from employing a Computable General Equilibrium Model, a Partial Equilibrium Model and Farm Level Models to explore selected trade and domestic policy scenarios post‐Brexit. These allow for the estimation of changes in producer prices, production and farm incomes against a baseline scenario of continued EU membership. Under a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, agricultural impacts are relatively modest. By contrast, unilateral removal of import tariffs has significant negative impacts on prices, production and incomes. Adoption of the EU's WTO tariff schedule for all imports favours net importers (e.g. dairy) and harms net exporters (e.g. sheep). Given the strong dependence of most UK farms on direct payments, their removal worsens negative impacts of new trade arrangements and offsets positive impacts. Impacts vary across different types and sizes of farm, but also regionally. However, the period of adjustment to new trade and domestic policy conditions may prove very challenging for a large number of farm businesses.     

Canadian Agricultural Programs and Policy in Transition

Canada does not have an agricultural policy, rather it has agricultural programs. The history of price and income stabilization programs is discussed along with supply management. Programs for the grains and oilseeds sectors have witnessed major changes while supply management has not. Canadian agricultural policy falls under the responsibility of both federal and provincial governments. As a result, farmers in Alberta, for example, receive far greater assistance than farmers in Saskatchewan. Under the new Canadian farm program (CAIS) large payments have been made to Canadian farmers even though many of the farmers who applied for CAIS payments received none. Le Canada ne possède pas de politique agricole, mais plutôt des programmes agricoles. Le présent article porte sur l'histoire du programme de stabilisation du revenu, du programme de stabilisation des prix et de la gestion de l'offre. Contrairement à la gestion de l'offre, les programmes destinés aux secteurs des céréales et des oléagineux ont subi des modifications importantes. La politique agricole canadienne relève des gouvernements fédéral et provinciaux. Par conséquent, les agriculteurs de l'Alberta, par exemple, reçoivent une aide supérieure à celle accordée aux agriculteurs de la Saskatchewan. Dans le cadre du nouveau Programme canadien de stabilisation du revenu agricole (PCSRA), certains producteurs ont reçu des paiements importants alors que de nombreux autres producteurs ayant fait une demande n'ont rien reçu.     

我国家庭农场发展的现状、问题及培育建议——基于农业部专项调查343万个样本数据

[目的]家庭农场作为一种新型农业经营主体,近年来受到国家的大力支持。对其发展情况进行调查分析有助于发现其存在问题,尽早提出解决措施,优化家庭农场的发展和培育。[方法]文章以农业部家庭农场专项调查数据为基础,从经营数量、经营规模、经营类型、经营效益4个方面,对家庭农场的发展现状进行了分析。[结果]家庭农场发展迅速,且增长速度逐年加快;目前已基本实现规模经营,其中70%的土地来自土地流转;农场数量和规模南北差异较大;经营类型以种植业为主,占六成以上;家庭农场的年销售产值高,但净利润低。除此之外,由于处在探索发展阶段,我国家庭农场在发展过程中面临着生产成本过高、质量认证缺乏和资金支持少等问题。[结论]最后针对这些问题,从加大政策扶持力度、加快农产品品牌建设和加强金融支持3方面提出对策建议,以期为未来家庭农场的培育提供参考价值。     

PROJECTION MODELS FOR U.K. FOOD AND AGRICULTURE*

Successful policy planning depends to a large extent on being able to predict the consequences of alternative measures. In the case of agriculture, it is important to know how the future pattern of supply and demand in this sector will be affected by government action on specific issues such as farm price support, and by expected trends in macro-economic variables such as national incomes and population. This paper illustrates the application of a model of U.K. agriculture to the projection of changes in the production and consumption of food and agriculture products between now and 1975. The demand projections show the effect of important levies, and of joining the E.E.C, on future expenditure on food, while the supply projections show how the output of a number of agricultural commodities will be affected by adjusting farm prices towards E.E.C. levels.